Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for Mallorca Golf Open
Ben Coley previews the final round of the Mallorca Golf Open, where Ryan Fox goes in search of his third win of the year.
Golf betting tips: Mallorca Open final round
1pt e.w. Marcus Armitage to win the Mallorca Open at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt treble Pepperell, Green & Long to win their 3-balls at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Ryan Fox is back in a familiar position for the final round of the Mallorca Golf Open, sharing the lead heading into Sunday and ready to go in search of a third win this season.
So brilliant has been the New Zealander that even a hat-trick might feel like one or two shy of what might've been, but should he convert this opportunity he'll climb to second in the Race to Dubai, guaranteeing that the season will go down as a massive success.
Many will expect him to do it.
Alongside Fox is Yannik Paul, a thoroughly impressive rookie who threatened to shoot 59 without making a putt of note on Saturday. Paul has been a model of consistency himself, his iron play is superb for all his action is ungainly, but he's yet to win as a professional and that's a big question to answer.
While he's already managed a dozen top-30 finishes during his first season on the DP World Tour, Paul has seldom gone into Sunday with a genuine chance. In fact the closest he's been so far was in Belgium, at the Soudal Open, where Fox and Sam Horsfield duelled for the title in front of him. Paul was bogey-free that day but never got within a shot of the winner.
Clearly, he's a bright talent and we shouldn't assume players of his profile will struggle, but it's Fox who holds the aces. It's only three weeks since he went out and grabbed the biggest win of his career in Scotland, again from the final group, and contending has become a welcome habit. He's the man to beat.
Odds of 6/4 look fair, too, and it's easy to argue the wind in Sunday's forecast helps him. All three of his DP World Tour wins so far have involved coping with a breeze to varying degrees and he was robbed of the Irish Open by Russell Knox when the weather played a huge part. His touch around the green is delightful and now that he's cracked the putting game, any extra emphasis on scrambling won't be an issue.
My worry is more the players just behind, with Marcus Armitage having carded two 63s this week and taken his chance well in Germany last year, Richard Mansell out for revenge, Jazz Janewattananond having done plenty of winning, Nicolai von Dellinghausen hugely streaky, and the Hojgaard twins not quite done with yet. As chasing packs go at this level, it looks a dangerous one.
With Nicolai Hojgaard on-side pre-tournament, there's some interesting in adding Rasmus to the staking plan.
He's five behind but won from a similar position at The Belfry in 2020, and was four back going into the final round of the European Masters last August before going on to win by one. If he can get to the fourth tee having picked up a shot, it wouldn't surprise anyone were he to really start to motor over the scoring holes which follow, and 33/1 is a sporting price.
However the one I keep coming back to is MARCUS ARMITAGE, one of just four winners at this level who are within five of the lead – the others being the Hojgaard twins and Renato Paratore, who has plenty on his plate.
Armitage was four back entering the final round of the Porsche European Open last year and produced some magnificent golf to win his first title. That came under tough conditions including some wind and when he's firing, there are few on the circuit who hit the golf ball the way he does, which is a massive asset if things do get tough.
This week it's a red-hot putter which has helped him to a pair of 63s and while that is arguably a negative, it was a good fortnight with his weakest club that saw him capitalise last summer. Moreover, as conditions worsen I won't be at all surprised if his long-game comes to the party; no doubt he'd prefer a ball-striking test and he should get one at a course which has proven dangerous at times.
Only for a stretch of four holes at the beginning of his second round has he struggled and after a slightly shaky start to round three, he hit his next 15 greens. I think he'll enjoy being the only member of the final group without a target on his back and having rightly expressed pride at the way he's responded to Friday's setbacks, he looks the biggest threat to the front two by a considerable margin.
It should be remembered that Fox did wobble late on in the Dunhill, ultimately needing to two-putt from 70-plus feet at the 17th hole to avoid a double-bogey, and for all he's a class act I'm not sure he's the sort of ruthless winner we should run scared off. He's the one to beat, but far from unbeatable.
Best three-ball bets
The aforementioned Paratore is part of one of the most fascinating three-balls, one completed by Darius van Driel and HURLY LONG.
Both Paratore and van Driel entered the week right around the cut-off for 2023 status, and as we so often see they're among the players to have so far risen to the challenge.
In Paratore's case perhaps that's no surprise, as he's a two-time DP World Tour winner with an undoubted touch of class, and he came through Q-School as a teenager.
Still, there's a lot of pressure on his shoulders now and having been without full status this season, despite winning the 2020 British Masters, he'll be desperate to ensure he's not missing Rolex Series events next year.
Van Driel has fought back from a slow start to climb to ninth place, holing out for eagle at the 18th on Saturday. The 33-year-old is an unspectacular, neat-and-tidy type and while there's a chance Paratore copes just fine with the situation, I do think the Dutchman will struggle.
Long has no such concerns, and back to Paratore there's another small reason to speculate that it's the young German who should be supported. Long is, shall we say, one of the more methodical players on the circuit. Paratore is without doubt the fastest. With so much at stake, Paratore might need some deep breaths if he's to remain focused on the task at hand.
Long has of course been the best player among this trio in 2022, hence he's not playing for his card, and when you throw in the sub-plot I think he becomes really interesting.
Odds of 6/4 accurately reflect the way this trio have played during the season, but they don't seem to factor in the enormous pressure two of the three are under. Paddy Power and Betfair's 15/8 looks much too big.
To my eye the banker of the day is EDDIE PEPPERELL, who has produced yet another display of world-class iron play.
He's out early with an out-of-sorts Chase Hanna, who hasn't cashed a cheque of note since May, and Frenchman Mike Lorenzo Vera, another who needs fireworks if he's to retain full status for 2023.
Lorenzo Vera's short-game might edge it for him but more likely is that Pepperell continues to pound greens while the other two members of his group struggle in the wind. Odds-against underestimates one of the form players on the circuit.
Long and Pepperell make for a 4/1 double with BoyleSports but yet again there's a scattergun nature to the matches priced up and not everyone has the latter available, which is also the case with GAVIN GREEN.
The Malaysian was a bit disappointing on Saturday, having got close to the lead with two birdies in five holes but then needed 10 strokes across the next two and stalled thereafter.
Still, I rate him a good player in the wind and in what should be a match with Alejandro Canizares, given Hugo Leon's overall struggles, he looks a bet at 5/4.
Canizares is another veteran with a big job on his hands from down at 160th in the Race to Dubai and isn't hitting the ball well.
Posted at 2000 BST on 22/10/22
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