Golf betting tips: Daily best bets and predictions for WGC Match Play Championship
Our golf team put up winning doubles on Friday and Saturday at the WGC-Match Play. Now, Martin Mathews previews Sunday's semi-finals and gives his verdict on the winner.
Golf betting tips: WGC-Match Play day five
2pts double Scottie Scheffler to bt Dustin Johnson & Kevin Kisner to bt Corey Conners at 12/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Kevin Kisner to win WGC-Match Play at 3/1 (General)
We’re down to the final four players at this year’s WGC-Match Play and once again Austin CC has provided us so far with four days of drama, twists and turns on a course that really is perfect for this format.
Over recent years the event has been a graveyard for the higher seeded players but this year the big names have got their own back with eight of the top-16 seeded players reaching the last 16 compared to only one last year, and we are now left with four players - Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Kisner and Corey Conners, who were ranked 5, 8, 29 and 36 respectively coming into the week.
So let’s take a closer look at the two semi-finals.
Dustin Johnson v Scottie Scheffler (1500 BST)
First off is SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER versus Dustin Johnson and at the odds on offer I have to side with Scheffler.
Scheffler, who will complete an astonishing ascendency to world number one should he clinch the title today, has certainly not had it easy this week coming through what I classed the ‘group of death’, containing Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Ian Poulter to reach the last 16.
Wednesday saw him have to fight back from two down to see off Poulter 2&1 before he succumbed to Fleetwood on Thursday. When it really mattered on Friday, though, he found his stride to see off Fitzpatrick 5&4 before sealing the group against him in a play-off.
Saturday saw Scheffler have to battle again to get his revenge on the man who beat him in last year's final, Billy Horschel, before he produced a more comfortable win over Seamus Power in the last eight.
Johnson, compared to Scheffler, had a relatively serene passage out of on an undoubtedly easier group, seeing off the out of form duo of Mackenzie Hughes and Matthew Wolff before being made to work harder by Max Homa on Friday.
On Saturday, he simply had too much in his locker for Richard Bland in the last 16 before coming from behind to see off Brooks Koepka in the last eight.
Looking more closely at that win over Koepka and while it was a big win by reputation, the match wasn’t one of huge quality with both players gifting each other holes. In the end Johnson won with just three birdies on his card over the round and having made the turn one up Koepka will certainly feel he let him off the hook.
Granted, we saw glimpses of DJ at his best yesterday, notably when he drove the 18th green against Koepka but neither of his Saturday opponents really turned the screw on him and the former champion here will need to step it up again today if he is to bag the trophy once more.
Texan Scheffler attended college in Austin and he knows this course well, and although he has tasted defeat once this week we saw with last year's champion Horschel that this does not count for too much once you reach the knockout stages.
Ultimately, he is playing the best golf of anyone in the game right now and as we saw at Bay Hill he has a great knack of salvaging a score on a hole when in trouble, something hugely important in this format.
He has the winning habit at the moment and with neither player having been completely at their best so far this week in what looks a tight encounter, I am happy to take Scheffler’s current momentum to get him over the line.
Corey Conners v Kevin Kisner (1510 BST)
The second semi-final sees another former Champion here KEVIN KISNER teeing it up against Corey Conners and I have to side with Kisner.
Kisner, who lifted the trophy here in 2019 and was also runner-up here the year before, simply loves this format and venue and he will arguably be the most comfortable of the final four players heading into today.
In the group stage, after a straightforward opening win over Marc Leishman, he was put under pressure by Luke List on Thursday but he found what was needed to close with three birdies in his final four holes and turn around a one-hole deficit.
He then produced a superb display on Friday, making five birdies and an eagle on his front nine, to see off Justin Thomas.
Not unsurprisingly, after that display Kisner was lacklustre early on Saturday morning against Adam Scott but the ‘Bulldog’ showed his fighting spirit again to deliver two birdies and an eagle over the final four holes to turn the match on its head as Scott wilted. A far more comfortable victory over a jaded Will Zalatoris followed in the afternoon.
Conners, the beneficiary of a walkover from the injured Paul Casey and a very poor performance from Louis Oosthuizen over the first two days, found his way through after a straight knockout match against Alex Noren on Friday with the Swede making only two birdies in 16 holes offering little resistance.
With his last 16 opponent Takumi Kanaya betraying the nerves of a new situation for him, Conners first big test of the week came against Abraham Ancer in the last eight and with three birdies in his final five holes he showed he was up to the task.
It may be that Conners is growing into the event and having had the day off basically on Wednesday some extra energy in the tank may help. However, he can consider himself a little fortunate to be here and with Kisner the more experienced player in this situation, I would expect him to be the stronger under pressure and to have the edge.
I will therefore take Scheffler and Kisner at the odds to progress in a double.
Predicted Final - Scottie Scheffler v Kevin Kisner
If we do get the predicted final I'm going to go with the player you would expect to be the outsider in the betting, KEVIN KISNER, to lift the trophy for a second time.
We have seen over recent years from both Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa what the pressure of making it to world number one can do to a player and I suspect that we could see the same impact on Scheffler if presented with this opportunity in front of his home state fans.
Kisner would certainly not make his life easy and would scrap for everything and with him arguably having played the best golf of all the four semi finalists to date this week, he looks the man to beat.
Therefore as well as taking the double on the two semi-finals I will back Kisner to lift the trophy at the general 3/1.
Published at 1025 GMT on 27/03/22
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