Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for the Challenge de Cadiz
Angel Ayora can make it a Spanish double on the Challenge Tour according to Ben Coley, who also has three selections at massive odds.
Golf betting tips: Challenge de Cadiz
2pts e.w. Angel Ayora at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - min 25/1
1.5pts e.w. Pierre Pineau at 45/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - min 33/1
1pt e.w. Ricardo Santos at 200/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - min 100/1
1pt e.w. Lucas Vacarisas at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - min 150/1
0.5pt e.w. Franck Daux at 350/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - min 200/1
The Challenge de Cadiz is back at Novo Sancti Petri, the first course in Spain to be designed by Seve Ballesteros, and last year's renewal was a fitting tribute to one of the game's entertainers. Six players couldn't be separated after 72 holes before Sam Hutsby, something of a Spain specialist, ended a long wait for his second win at this level.
With nine holes very much coastal and exposed and nine that turn inland, this is a good, all-round test on a golf course that has its defences despite being a short par 72. The closing stretch is especially fearsome and one I've heard compared to nearby Valderrama. It has in fact been said that both were under consideration for the 1997 Ryder Cup which took place at the latter, where Seve was of course captain.
The first edition here went to a Spanish player, just like the Challenge de Espana three weeks ago, and once more the home contingent have to be afforded maximum respect. They don't quite qualify but players from Norway and Iceland had the Danish Challenge between them last time, with a Finn and a couple of Danes helping to make it six Scandinavians in the top eight. Conditions are the primary factor but there are others, too.
Conditions could also be key to this event, not only in how they help players from the Iberian Peninsula, but in the potential for a draw bias. Right now, the event is forecast to begin with very little in the way of breeze, before the wind picks up on Thursday afternoon. It is due to stick around throughout Friday morning before dropping off, which means the AM-PM wave could have things in their favour.
With tee-times released nice and early on Tuesday, that helps narrow down the home squad and youngster ANGEL AYORA is the only one priced as a realistic champion.
He's still a few months short of his 20th birthday and looks like he could be a bit special having got close to elite levels as an amateur before turning pro earlier than most. Falling in love with golf swings from driving range videos is risky business as this sport is a lot more complicated, but when you see his you might struggle not to.
On the course, his results are encouraging. Ayora ended last year finishing mid-pack in DP World Tour events won by Joaquin Niemann and Louis Oosthuizen, and now in his first full Challenge Tour campaign already has four top-20s from seven starts, also managing to make the weekend in the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA Tour.
The one gripe would be that he's yet to produce his best in Spain but he's not had many chances and while 18/1 is short enough, the general 28/1 and anything around the 25/1 mark is worth taking. He was back home last week caddying for a friend on the Alps Tour and before defying a slow start to finish mid-pack in Denmark, there's some hidden form as came through a qualifier for the Italian Open.
It looks like he's in good nick and having grown up by the coast here in Andalucia, I'm very hopeful he can deliver on home soil for the first time.
Most of the Spaniards out early are hard to fancy but longshot LUCAS VACARISAS is worth taking a small chance on.
The reason for the price is that he's been quiet for most of this year but he did make good progress through the pack in round three of the Challenge de Espana two starts ago to lie 15th, while he was in the mix at halfway in a DP World Tour event in February.
Fourth in last year's Challenge de Espana, which took place in September, and fifth in the same event in 2021 when it was held at this very course, he's hit the frame a couple of times in similar tournaments played here in Spain and at 25, he's not without potential himself.
Vacarisas is already a Challenge Tour winner having captured the Open de Provence as recently as October and what's potentially notable about that win is that it came on another course designed by Ballesteros. Afterwards, it was something he was keen to talk about.
"I grew up playing on a Seve designed course,” he said. "I used to practice in Golf San Juan which he designed too. It’s not like this, but some holes do look the same. I feel so grateful to win here. It’s very special."
Given his early tee-time and the potential for it to prove beneficial, the combination of winning form at this level plus several indications that he can step up to the challenge when playing at home, the Seve angle is the icing on the cake.
James Nicholas is a class-dropper who has shown up well in several DP World Tour events this year and also went close to qualifying for the US Open. I'm not sure he's been missed in the market exactly and he does seem to rely on the putter more than I'd like, but he's undeniably hard to rate.
His compatriot Joshua Lee has been catching the eye with some improved displays and now has 18 consecutive rounds of 72 or better if we include Monday's two back in the US, where he was a shot away from reaching Pinehurst. Three of the five ahead of him hold PGA Tour cards, including Seamus Power and Brendon Todd, and back in this grade he could be a threat.
The trouble is he has to get from Ohio on Monday night to Spain in time for this and while a late tee-time helps in that respect, my concerns about the draw are enough to leave him out despite three-figure prices.
Not much shorter is Kim Koivu and he's a fascinating option who I can also just about resist.
While Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen seeks to earn three-win promotion to the DP World Tour, it's worth saying that two men in this field have done it before. One is Benjamin Hebert, who actually managed it twice; the other is Koivu, who won three times in 2018.
From 2019 to 2022 he lost his way to the extent that it looked as though the game was up, but he showed some better signs towards the end of last year and something has clicked recently, as he's put together a run of five top-six finishes on the competitive Nordic Golf League.
More will be needed here, clearly, but he's one to keep an eye on along with young compatriot Oliver Lindell, another shortlisted until the draw came out. He flew home for second last time out and remains a player of potential.
Back to those out early then and I'll take a real flier on FRANCK DAUX.
Not exactly a household name and now in his 30s, Daux is no world-beater and for a while he looked like he was short of Challenge Tour standard. Only in 2017 has he played close to a full scheduled and he missed every cut in 15 starts, often finishing close to last.
However, he's now made nine of his last 11 cuts at this level including last time out in Denmark when 37th, and that's just enough evidence that his form back on the French national circuit could be worth something. In April, Daux tied second with David Ravetto (2024 Challenge Tour winner) in an event won by Julien Guerrier, with Antoine Rozner among those further back. In May, he won a slightly lesser tournament.
We saw Guerrier come out and contend in Germany last week and Daux was regularly threatening the top-end of Challenge Tour leaderboards last year, sitting inside the top 25 at halfway in six of his seven starts. It's not easy when you've limited status and he did well enough to suggest this opportunity to play two tournaments in a row is one he can take advantage of, especially as for once he does know the course.
He's not one to go mad with by any means and I wouldn't recommend anything under 200/1, but at a fair bit bigger than that I feel sure his form at home hasn't been accounted for, rightly or wrongly. Last year the same was true when Lauri Ruuska won soon after he'd captured a minor title in his native Finland and Daux might just give us a nice run at a massive price.
His young compatriot PIERRE PINEAU is a more sensible option and one I do like despite a general reluctance to board rollercoasters.
Pineau has a fabulous short-game which should come in handy here and after narrowly missing the cut in his first start this year, he's since made all nine. Five top-25s is a good return and seven times he's been within that mark at halfway, hinting that his turn might be close.
Last time out Pineau shot a closing 63 in Denmark and this exciting, aggressive youngster can be a big player if avoiding the one ruinous round that has often held him back.
His appeal is enhanced by the coast having threatened on the main circuit in Mauritius, plus the fact that his sole Challenge Tour win came at Royal Obidos in Portugal, where 2020 Cadiz winner Pep Angles has been runner-up before.
While I'll be toasting the draw if Daux is five shots clear entering the closing stretch, at this point it is a bit frustrating as I'd love to be putting up Alex Levy. He's been the second best player on the Challenge Tour this year I'd say so to see him 14th in bet365's list is a bit strange.
That's based on two missed cuts in his last three starts but both were on the DP World Tour where for the first of them he was about the same price as he is this week. The second came in Belgium at a course where he's yet to show anything really, so had he been out early he'd have been given the headline vote.
It's striking how few of the leading candidates do have what could be the pick of the tee times and in the hope the forecast holds, veteran RICARDO SANTOS completes a largely speculative staking plan.
He's a winner in Spain on the EuroPro Tour, and his co-sanctioned Challenge-DP World Tour win came by the coast in Madeira. Conditions really could suit on what is his debut at this golf course.
After a slow start to the year, 27th place last time was a big step in the right direction despite a poor final round which saw him fall from 15th, prior to which he'd missed the cut by a single shot in the UAE. Between those two he was at home in Portugal defending his national PGA crown and while he'd have hoped for better than fifth, it was a decent effort among the best tour pros in the country, all of whom were in the mix.
Santos was on the main tour last year and in making nine cuts in 15 starts, with three missed by a single shot, he actually played some really solid golf. That's underlined by the fact he was 102nd in strokes-gained total and he was one of those who suffered for his status, having theoretically earned one of the last Q-School cards but in fact been left to piece half a schedule together.
All of which is a roundabout way of saying he's easy to underestimate but Santos won this very week five years ago when last he was playing full-time on the Challenge Tour, eventually graduating in 10th. Over the years he's proven time and again that he is a very good player in this kind of company and at 41, it's still too soon to be confining him to the scrapheap.
Back where he's likely to be more comfortable than he has been at any point this year, three-figure prices are good value.
Posted at 0920 BST on 05/06/24
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