Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's best bets for Genesis Invitational round one
Patrick Rodgers and Adam Scott feature among a quartet of three-ball fancies for day one of the Genesis Invitational.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational first round
2pts Adam Scott to win his three-ball at 21/20 (General)
1pt treble Finau, Rodgers and Scott at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt four-fold Finau, Rodgers, Scott and Kim at 30/1 (Sky Bet)
Finau to beat Day and Todd (1825 GMT)
Reports from the course this week seem to confirm that Riviera will play pretty long following a wet start to the year – while players have expressed surprise at how well the greens have retained their famed firmness, fairways are far more receptive.
That's going to be a big problem for a player like Brendon Todd, who has gone 56-MC-MC on his three recent starts in the Genesis Invitational, has only broken 70 three times in 20 rounds, and struggled when conditions were similar at a more suitable course in Pebble Beach two weeks ago.
This three-ball should therefore be a match and we'll take the course form and extra few yards of TONY FINAU, twice a runner-up in this event since 2018 and very much a potential champion if he can get the putts to drop.
That's a pretty big and is where we could come unstuck against Jason Day, for a long time one of the best poa annua putters on the PGA Tour. However, despite that Day never really enjoyed Riviera and it took until a sparkling final round last year for him to show any kind of form around this famous course.
He needs to show that wasn't a flash in the pan and with Finau's scoring average better by a couple of shots, odds-against looks to represent ample compensation for the risk that he can't get the ball to drop.
Kim to beat Straka and Putnam (1854 GMT)
Andrew Putnam is a very similar player to Todd, reliant on his putter and always up against it on courses playing their full yardage, particularly in high-class company. He loves Pebble Beach but couldn't compete there and I see no reason, with a best of 32nd and three missed cuts in six visits to Riviera, why this would be any different.
That leaves us Sepp Straka and SI WOO KIM and again, siding with the more powerful player with the superior Riviera record looks the way to go.
Kim is hitting his ball with real authority at the moment and, like Finau, could be a big player here if he putts well. There were better signs in that regard last week and while I'm dubious as to whether he can find that further step forward he'll need to win, an average putting day might do the trick in round one.
Straka finished strongly here two years ago before going on to win the Honda Classic but he missed the cut at Torrey Pines and wasn't much of a factor at Pebble Beach. He may need his best first-round score in what's his fifth visit to this course if he's to prevent Kim from obliging.
Rodgers to beat Fowler and Hughes (1906 GMT)
It might seem odd to see PATRICK RODGERS and Rickie Fowler priced as equals in this three-ball, but truth be told that does a disservice to Rodgers, rather than his more illustrious playing partner.
Fowler has never really enjoyed Riviera and didn't always play here, missing the event six times in 10 years before Tiger Woods' foundation took over hosting duties. Now that it's a Signature event there's no way he could miss it, but I'd wager he might prefer to be heading to Las Vegas for some much-needed time with Butch Harmon.
Fowler's game has been a bit of a mess since the Ryder Cup. He was 64th in a limited field, no-cut ZOZO, which he'd almost won a year earlier, then almost last in The Sentry. After that came a third-round 76 to miss the cut by a mile in the AmEx and while he was a bit better at Pebble Beach, last week he shot 73-75 in Phoenix.
Given his Scottsdale record, alarm bells are now ringing loudly and with Mackenzie Hughes having finished near last in his last two starts, that leaves us with Rodgers, who is more comfortable at Riviera than just about anywhere else on the PGA Tour.
He has five top-30s in eight starts here and while poor last time out, prior to that he was ninth at the Farmers, 24th at the Sony, and 14th in The Sentry, comfortably beating his playing partners in each. More of the same is expected.
Scott to beat Montgomery and Smalley (2006 GMT)
ADAM SCOTT is a bonafide Riviera specialist, a two-time former champion who might feel the timing is perfect as he bids for a hat-trick. Not only are we without Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and a few other likely contenders, but he's playing better than he has since winning this in 2020.
Whether he can get over the line or not we might find out on Sunday, but he's well-drawn for three-ball punters against the wild Taylor Montgomery and an out-of-sorts Alex Smalley.
Montgomery is playing quite nicely and was among my selections at Torrey Pines, but his driving has been poor in two subsequent starts and all it takes is a downturn with the putter for big numbers to occur. Having missed the cut here on debut, I'll be a little surprised if he hits it well enough to threaten an under-par score.
Smalley has shot two 76s and two 73s in five rounds since a promising 21st in the AmEx and every part of his game has been a little off, particularly his approach play at Pebble Beach. He has form figures of 72-MC in the event and while his best work has been done on Thursdays, recent evidence makes another 69 appear unlikely.
Posted at 1000 GMT on 15/02/24
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