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Golf betting preview: US PGA Championship round three two-ball tips

By Ben Coley
Golf
Sat May 21, 2022 · 3y ago

Ben Coley has bagged 28/1, 8/1, 3/1 and 5/6 winners so far in the PGA Championship. Get his take on the state of play heading into round three, plus the day's best bets.

Ben's first-round preview produced a total profit of 39.98pts before a 3/1 winning double in round two

Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round three

1pt double Davis and Straka to win their two-balls at 2.64/1 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt double Burns and Cink to win their two-balls at 2.96/1 (William Hill)

0.5pt four-fold Davis, Straka, Burns, Cink at 13.43/1 (William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

A pronounced bias has coloured the first two days of the PGA Championship, but that shouldn't detract from the brilliance of Will Zalatoris and Mito Pereira to set up a fascinating final two-ball later today.

Neither of these youngsters, Zalatoris 25 and Pereira 27, has yet won on the PGA Tour, yet each goes into the weekend with a golden opportunity to become a major champion. They've had help from the weather, particularly late on Friday, but both men have been excellent in every department at a course that suits them down to the ground.

As expected, quality approach play has been vital, a problem Rory McIlroy will have to solve if he's to end his long wait for a fifth major. We see that not just through Zalatoris and Pereira but Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson, too, the latter carding a seven-under 63 in round two – without doing much on the greens.

What we have then is a spreadeagled leaderboard, with 13 shots separating Zalatoris and those who scraped through to the weekend. Just three players are within four shots, another three within five, and we're one round away from this major playing out as most do. It is exceptionally rare for winners to emerge from deep in the pack, and unless the final four players to tee off all stand still, that's going to remain true.

Zalatoris at 9/4 looks a fair price, and there will be those pinning their hopes to a statistic which has understandably been doing the rounds: seven majors have taken place here over the last 70 or so years, and all have been won by the halfway leader.

I'm not sure it really tells us anything, but the leaderboard and the quality of the leader, who won here as an amateur and is an ideal fit, means by far the most likely winner is the man in front. Zalatoris may not yet have won but he's vastly more experienced at this level than Pereira, he did nothing wrong when runner-up in last year's Masters, and if you beat him I think you win.

The nagging doubt concerns his putting, which has performed a remarkable turnaround from last week and sees him lead the field. Zalatoris has never led the field so far in his short PGA Tour career and outside of Augusta, you have to go back to last October for the last time he was better than average. It's unlikely he continues at the rate he's been.

That and a changing forecast which sees a switch in wind direction and potentially some rain is enough to dissuade me from putting up the leader, who is preferred to Thomas at the odds. The latter dominated the unfortunate half of the draw over the first two days and his second round was a mature clinic, the like of which Tiger Woods would be proud of. He's the biggest threat and priced accordingly.

Pick of the options to run into a place are Davis Riley and Sam Burns, both of whom have potential to make big moves today. Riley's ball-striking has been of the very highest order, which hasn't always been the case this spring despite a selection of high finishes. Likewise, Burns has built a solid platform without making much, though with five and seven shots to make up respectively, they'll need help.

What are the day's best two-ball bets?

For now, I'll stick to the two-balls and suggest a pair of doubles, with CAMERON DAVIS leading us out for the day at 1320 BST.

Davis plays with Rikuya Hoshino for the third day running, itself enough to tell you there's been nothing between them so far. The Japanese youngster has some experience of playing a major weekend courtesy of last year's US Open (T26) and has won titles under tough conditions, but he's relied almost exclusively on his short-game to make the weekend and might now be exposed.

Davis on the other hand is gaining strokes through the bag and if the course plays longer, which it should following overnight rain which may well fall throughout the morning, then that'll be to his advantage. He's demonstrated several times how comfortable he is in the wind and it was under foul conditions that he first showed what he could do on the PGA Tour in the Sony Open a couple of years ago.

He probably deserves to be a bit shorter than 10/11 and the same goes for SEPP STRAKA (1450), who is in with Adam Schenk, again for the third time in as many days.

Whereas Straka has enjoyed a breakout year, winning the Honda (again in the wind and, briefly, rain), Schenk has missed 10 cuts in 15 starts and largely struggled. There were better signs in a top-10 finish at the Wells Fargo but his formerly reliable long-game soon went missing again and the balance of his form suggests he'll struggle to find it this weekend.

Straka has got by on his putter so far and will need to hit the ball better, but that experience winning one of the best major trials on the PGA Tour will count for plenty and he's a far superior player right now.

The fact Bernd Wiesberger did his scoring on the tougher side suggests 6/4 to beat Max Homa, who benefited from a good draw, is a fair price. Wiesberger is hitting his ball to elite levels and has been for a while, so a solid day on the greens and he could reward backers.

However that's far from certain despite his best putting round in an age on Friday, and I'm inclined to look elsewhere and side with the aforementioned SAM BURNS (1830), who can get the better of Gary Woodland.

Burns shot an easy three-under in round two and while Woodland's iron play was exceptional, the younger man has the greater scope for improvement on the greens. He spoke very fondly of this course on Wednesday and looks primed to make a move up the leaderboard.

On what's undeniably a difficult two-ball coupon, STEWART CINK (1910) gets the vote to beat Chris Kirk.

Cink still gets the ball out there which will help if the course plays as long as expected, and has a clear edge on Kirk in that department. He's also produced the superior ball-striking display and has the stronger bank of major form by far and plenty of it recent, too.

Tempting though it is to side with Riley as underdog against Matt Fitzpatrick, and Abraham Ancer against McIlroy, Cink makes more appeal at just a slightly shorter price.

  • All tee-times listed subject to short delay following overnight storms

Posted at 0835 BST on 21/05/22

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