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Daniel Berger is the best three-ball bet on Thursday
Daniel Berger is the best three-ball bet on Thursday

Golf betting preview: US PGA Championship round one three-ball tips

By Ben Coley
Golf
Thu May 19, 2022 · 2y ago

Early starters might have the edge on day one of the US PGA, where Ben Coley has some first-round lead and three-ball fancies.

Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round one

2pts Daniel Berger to win his first-round three-ball at 11/8 (General)

1pt treble Min Woo Lee, Justin Harding and Aaron Wise at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt e.w. Rory McIlroy to lead after round one at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Gary Woodland to lead after round one at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Ryan Palmer to lead after round one at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Will early starters be at an advantage?

The forecast for this week's PGA Championship promises a pretty stiff breeze, and threatens severe gusts which could cause all kinds of problems, from the nuts and bolts of scoring to the machinery of a golf tournament and its battle with the sunset. Tiger Woods has already suggested it could be hard to get the field around this course given the way some tee-shots cross over greens, and if play is slowed by serious wind then those of us in the UK who are hoping for a bit of sleep are in big trouble.

Forecasting the strength of the wind and precisely when it will blow must be the hardest part of the meteorology game so I'm not especially keen to invest heavily in what the internet says, but if the weather does match the forecast, those out early could have a double advantage. First, they'll perhaps get a couple of hours in before the wind whips up on Thursday (although gusts are there from 7am). Then, more significantly, they might return for their second rounds just as it begins to die down.

That's good news for Woods and his day one playing partners, Jordan Spieth and RORY MCILROY, and the latter duo in particular have to be of interest in the first-round leader market. Spieth has held the lead three times in the Masters alone plus in the Open and is one of the form players in the sport, but I've very slight preference for McIlroy here.

The four-time major champion won two of those from the front, never seeing another rival after an opening 65 in the 2011 US Open, and repeating that trick for the Open Championship three years later. As I wrote in Tuesday's specials preview, he's developed a bit of a problem when it comes to finding these fast starts in majors more recently, but it's one he's going to fix and probably either here, at Brookline, or in the Open when it heads to St Andrews in July.

I do really like where he is right now, buoyed by that fabulous finish to the Masters and, crucially, with his iron play looking better by the tournament. Always underrated around the green and with Brad Faxon in tow this week to ensure his putting remains where it needs to be, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. The issue is finding that fast start and at 28/1, with the potential for a lopsided leaderboard, there's enough in the price to take that chance, as he does remain one of the most prolific first-round leaders in the sport.

All told, McIlroy has 31 first-round leads in his career, more than half of which have seen him alone at the top of the leaderboard. The latest of them came at Bay Hill earlier this year and he's managed three leads in his last dozen starts. That ties in with his long-term stats and while this market is usually one for speculation, there's one elite player who has proven particularly profitable to follow, and it's McIlroy. He's been in the top five a ridiculous 70 times – more than a fifth of his appearances – which compares favourably with Dustin Johnson, who has played a similar number of events but has about half the first-round leads and is 21 behind in top-fives.

For these reasons I would've been tempted to play at smaller stakes in the wire-to-wire market, or 'to lead after round one and win', but there's no value in the latter as far as I can see and the same is probably true of the former. Best to focus on the first leg of these wagers and reinvest if so inclined. This column doesn't necessarily have that opportunity so we'll stick to the basics and hope for a return to his former glories on day one of the major he's won twice.

At bigger prices I found myself looking at a disconcertingly old (in golfing terms, I mean no offence to readers of a certain age) bunch of players like Matt Kuchar, Stewart Cink and RYAN PALMER, and of this trio I'll settle for a supplementary go on the latter.

This is an important time of year for Palmer, who has three big events in his native Texas throughout April and May. He's already played well in the first two and with Colonial to come next week, the one that matters most to him, it's not a big surprise that he's found form after a quiet spell.

"All around the game is, the chipping, the driving, everything's working right now," he said during last week's Byron Nelson, which he'd end with his first top-five finish of 2022. "I love where we're at, love what (coach) Randy Smith and I are doing and some of the best putting I've been doing as well."

Those comments came after a second-round 62 to hold the lead and he was also in front at halfway in the Texas Open before a poor weekend. In fact he's started well regularly this season, with five first-round top-12s in nine stroke play starts, and Palmer has generally been one to do his best work early on throughout a lengthy PGA Tour career.

His sole major lead came in this championship back in 2014 but it's the more recent evidence I'm drawn to, including this run of scoring he's on right now plus the fact he came to Southern Hills on a scouting mission with the favourite, Scottie Scheffler, a few weeks ago. Throw in the very first tee-time off the 10th and he looks a fun bet with which to get the tournament started.

Finally, it's possible the very best slot is towards the end of the morning and that along with an eye-catching record in this event earns GARY WOODLAND the vote, again to small stakes.

Woodland has been in the top 20 after day one of this event in each of the last five years, leading in 2018 having sat third a year earlier. He was eighth last year, a shot outside the places, and 10 years ago was second, too.

Thought disappointing in foul weather last time out, he's played a lot of good golf this spring, we know he's at his best on difficult, long courses and that his driving and approach play are his main strengths, while he's been pretty sharp in the short-game department lately.

Off at 1455 BST, almost two hours after Palmer, Woodland can keep up his run of strong starts in the PGA.

What are the best three-ball bets?

Unfortunately, only a handful of firms have priced up the entire three-ball coupon, with the majority not keen to include those featuring club professionals. That hasn't been the case in previous years and given that the club pros are generally put in with lower-ranked players, it denies plenty of punters the chance to back golfers further down the ladder, which is a shame.

For those with the right accounts, the three who appeal most are MIN WOO LEE, JUSTIN HARDING and AARON WISE, and a small treble at the 8/1 offered by Paddy Power and Betfair is recommended. The same bet pays 7/1 with BoyleSports and 7.78/1 with bet365.

Lee is in with fellow big-hitter Ryan Brehm, who has been very poor since winning in Puerto Rico. Lee is a cut above the American, played really well in the Masters, and ought not to be troubled by Brehm or PGA pro Wyatt Worthington if avoiding disaster. He's a former US Junior Amateur winner with a huge future and victory for his sister at the weekend will put a little extra spring in his step.

Wise is fancied to beat Jared Jones and Joel Dahmen after a top-20 finish in this event last year, on a similarly long course. Dahmen played very poorly after a lightning-quick start to the Wells Fargo last time at a venue he enjoys. It's true that he went well in this event back in 2020 but Wise has the edge on form this year and length off the tee, while Jones is director of instruction at River Oaks Country Club in Houston and makes his major debut. He might just be overawed.

Harding at 5/4 is the best value for singles players. He's in with Nicolai Hojgaard, a huge talent but one who has so far struggled to adapt to challenges like this one. His two wins have come at courses where players can blast the ball off the tee and then hit an approach to a big, receptive green, and he might just be a little short of the nous required. Harding boasts a fabulous short-game, positive and relevant Augusta experience plus better recent form, and Sean McCarty shouldn't be a factor despite being known for his big hitting.

Among the higher-profile matches that are priced up across the board, the only one I want to be with is outright selection DANIEL BERGER, who is a solid 11/8 chance to beat Ian Poulter and Louis Oosthuizen.

Taking on the latter in majors obviously requires pause for thought, but Oosthuizen hasn't been a factor anywhere this year. It seems he's again suffering from some health issues having withdrawn from the Tiger Woods group after round one of the Masters, since which he's not been seen competitively. Even if he's in better shape, there's little encouragement to be drawn from his play in 2022.

Poulter meanwhile hasn't been at his best and his long-game in last week's Byron Nelson was very poor, whereas Berger's has been excellent throughout a solid start to the year which ought to have been rewarded with a fifth PGA Tour win. All three will be fine if the wind is blowing by their 1947 BST tee-time, but Berger is the one who can approach Southern Hills with real confidence.

Posted at 0745 BST on 18/05/22

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