Golf analysis: Players to watch when the DP World Tour returns in Kenya

George Coetzee

• Why: He's improved with every start this year and has a touch of class
• Where: Not just South Africa in the coming weeks, but Qatar too
• Key stat: Gained strokes off the tee in his last five starts - he'd managed it five times in his previous 16

With three events in Africa coming up, the schedule was already looking good for George Coetzee – and then came news that the Qatar Masters is back on it. If that wasn't enough, this former staple of the Middle East swing returns to Doha GC, where Coetzee has twice been second and boasts five top-10 finishes (and a share of 12th) from just eight starts. It's a record which is almost identical to that which he's produced under similar conditions in Portugal, finally winning there in 2020 when presented with a weak field and a golden opportunity.

He might just get the same in Qatar, where he also has a top-10 finish from just two visits to Education City. Indeed Coetzee has been a persistent threat across the desert, but it's the strength of field which is key: for all his talent, he's best when the big fish in a small pond and has so far not been able to beat the very best players on the circuit, several of whom will be in America when this tournament takes place.

Coetzee has opportunities before then, too. There's no reason he can't improve on a 2009 missed cut at Muthaiga in the Kenya Open, after which come two new events in South Africa, one at a course where he has some dated Sunshine Tour form. Four of his five DP World Tour titles have been won in Africa, three at home, and always when he's among the favourites.

Crucially, his game looks in the shape required to capitalise. Coetzee's form has an aesthetically pleasing, progressive look to it: MC-47-27-9. His driver, often a club that lets him down, has been very solid all season, and his putter will surely warm up at some stage. That's the club he rode to victory in Portugal, the one that sustains him, and with good signs through the rest of the bag, a low-grade event is at his mercy if his chief weapon fires.

Romain Langasque

• Why: The pieces are all there and he will at some stage put them together
• Where: You're asking me? Really?
• Key stat: The best iron player (avg SG per round) in the field last time; third-best driver the time before

Bear with me. OK, it was an expensive fortnight in Ras al Khaimah, Langasque missing back-to-back cuts. Before that, we were on him at 125/1 when he finished a promising 18th in Dubai, and at the end of last year we were on him in Mallorca (34th), Portugal (26th), and Joburg (MC). Oh, and Abu Dhabi (16th) and Kenya (5th) earlier. Thankfully, he had to withdraw when selected twice at the end of 2020, and we got our money back.

That's still eight of 31 starts since the beginning of 2021. It does include his best result, which came in Kenya, and some of his strongest form elsewhere, which came in good fields in the Middle East. Ultimately though it's 28 points staked, about 10 returned, and an expensive experiment. It was put to me that he has been disappointing since winning in Wales and that's indisputable by the numbers: Langasque has one subsequent top-10 finish in 38 starts.

Patience is wearing thin, and I can't be sure he'll feature in a staking plan anytime soon, not least because his record in Kenya is so good that he may well be prominent in the market there. However, I do still have faith in the player, because the things he does best are the things that, long-term, cultivate success and sustain careers. At some stage, fitness permitting, the pieces will fall into place and he will kick on from the solid foundations he has now laid.

Langasque is one of the best drivers on the circuit. Six times since September he's gained more than a stroke per round off the tee. If you do that week in, week out, you are not just one of the best on the circuit, but the very best, and Langasque is on course to cement his place among the top 10 at least.

His iron play, for so long costly, has turned. He ranked ninth in Portugal late last year, then came back to begin this one as the single best iron player in a high-class Abu Dhabi field. In the second event at Ras al Khaimah, he gained 4.64 strokes in two rounds. Had he played the weekend and kept it up, he'd have gained 9.28 in total with his approach shots alone, a figure achieved 10 times across the entire circuit last season – something in the region of 6,000 opportunities.

Around the greens his numbers are volatile, as they are for most players, but they've been positive in all bar one start since his resurgence began in October. As for the putter, the single biggest issue he has, it's clear that he is not a player in some kind of funk. Three starts ago he ranked 11th, before that a solid 33rd, and he's gained strokes in six of his last 13 starts. Where Langasque is concerned, that club is especially hard to predict, undeniably up and down, but not an Achilles heel.

Statistics can only ever tell part of the story, and if Langasque cannot connect the dots, then what use is it that he's elite in one department most weeks? However there's ample evidence to suggest he will do that: he was, after all, a quite brilliant amateur, and he remains as ambitious as he is talented. Let's just hope he behaves when next we give him the benefit of the doubt, or else that they just chalk him up at 14/1 in Kenya and save us the dilemma.

Marcus Armitage

• Why: The best iron player on the circuit so far this season
• Where: Back on a European parkland course like the Belfry
• Key stat: Leads the DP World Tour approach play stats (10+ rounds)

Of all those to have played more than eight rounds so far this year, Marcus Armitage has been the best iron player on the circuit. Adding in those who've played eight puts him third behind Tommy Fleetwood and Shubhankar Sharma, just ahead of the likes of Viktor Hovland, Sam Horsfield, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry.

The Bullet is established now as a real flusher and after breaking through on a difficult, parkland course last summer, that sort of challenge looks ideal. Indeed he'd earlier been fourth in Austria, where again there was an emphasis on smart, positional golf coupled with quality iron play, whereas events coming up in Africa may be slightly less suitable.

Waiting for the British Masters, where he contended en route to seventh in 2020, could be the answer, and later on I'd be keen to see him return to Germany not just for his European Open defence, but the BMW International Open, too. He has only played there once, in 2017, but after Hovland and Martin Kaymer dominated last summer, Armitage would look like a nice fit.

The problem with Armitage is pretty straightforward: he tends to putt poorly. Indeed when last we saw him at Al Hamra, he hit one of the shots of the tournament on Sunday; a low, by-his-name bullet to a couple of feet on a tough par-three... and missed. He putted significantly better than he usually does when winning, and when fourth in Australia, and when 10th in Kenya, and backers will need a bit of luck in predicting just when that club will do what he needs it to do in order to capitalise on his strengths elsewhere.

Jason Scrivener

• Why: Gets hot and stays hot, so top-10 last time is noted
• Where: South Africa perhaps, where the Australian was born
• Key stat: Ball-striking last time was his best since a run of top-10s last summer

A longstanding maiden who, at 32, may have reached his ceiling, Jason Scrivener wouldn't be one to get overly excited about in the long-term. That being said, in the short-term the fact that he finished ninth doing everything well when last we saw him could be a hint worth taking.

Scrivener is one of those players who finds something and runs with it. Last summer he bagged three top-10 finishes in a four-event stretch, the first of them seeing him gain strokes through the bag just as he did in the Ras al Khaimah Classic. He ended 2020 with sixth place in Cyprus, and was second when next we saw him in January. Back in 2020, his two top-10 finishes came in a run of three events. In 2019, he emerged from a quiet spell to finish seventh in Spain, and played good golf until the end of the season.

Go back to the beginning of 2019 and you'll see back-to-back top-10s, just as you will at the end of 2018. Keep going further back and you keep finding examples of the Aussie catching fire for a period of weeks, rather than days, but seldom months and not yet years. Latching on to the next purple patch could yet be profitable as he's not a golfer who tends to attract a great deal of attention away from the Hong Kong Open.

A relatively new father, things appear to be settling down both in terms of parenthood and travel restrictions and as for timing, the fact we're off to South Africa shortly could be ideal. Scrivener was in fact born in Cape Town, and since finishing 11th in the 2015 SA Open he's played plenty of good golf in the country of his birth, most notably when third in the high-class Nedbank Challenge on his last visit in 2019.

There's a chance he skips these events, but watch out for this solid all-rounder if he does elect to tee it up.

Haotong Li

• Why: Resurgence has real substance and has huge scope
• Where: Anywhere, really - but eyes out for the Dutch Open
• Key stat: Gained 10+ strokes ball-striking twice in last seven starts versus zero of his previous 60

Captain Obvious for a moment but Hao-tong Li's return to form now appears to have real substance and marks him down as one to keep close in the months ahead.

Five years ago, Li was third in the Open before starting the next season with victory over Rory McIlroy in Dubai, which saw him climb as high as 32nd in the world. As far as pedigree goes, his is among the strongest of what you might call rank-and-file DP World Tour members.

Then his driving became a big problem, which perhaps explains why he infamously spent so long on the range after a bright start to the 2020 PGA Championship. It was around this time that his downfall really began, no doubt intensified by the pandemic which kept him out until later than most and saw him return on the PGA Tour in elite company.

By the summer of 2021, Li's driving was catastrophically bad: he lost 16 strokes in two rounds of the Cazoo Classic and if you're not familiar with the language of strokes gained, another way to put it is that he gave the field an eight-shot head start per round because of the places his drives were finding. This extreme example was not freakish – he lost 12 strokes a fortnight earlier, and five or more on another handful of occasions.

This sort of driving ruins careers, but Li has rebuilt his very quickly, aided it seems by wearing glasses on the course. Since that episode in the Cazoo Classic he has in fact gained strokes off the tee in five of eight starts as well as overall, which has helped him to finish 14th in the valuable Dunhill Links, 12th in the PGA Tour's Sony Open won by the Masters champion, and then third in the Ras al Khaimah Championship behind Nicolai Hojgaard.

An immensely likeable, popular character, Li's return to form has been one of the feel-good stories of the season so far, and there's no reason he can't continue his climb back towards the world's top 100. The difficulty will be in weighing up value as he was soon restored towards the top of the market in the Ras al Khaimah Classic, but it could pay to remember that pedigree.

Kristoffer Broberg

• Why: Ball-striking has been excellent since Dutch Open win
• Where: Dutch Open defence not far away but what about the Scandinavian Mixed?
• Key stat: Top-10 in SG: Approach in five of last nine starts

Kristoffer Broberg has played nine times since his stunning 500/1 victory in the Dutch Open, where he putted better than you're ever likely to see anyone putt. All told, Broberg gained 16.870 strokes in that event – and 13.981 of them (83%) came via the putter. It was beyond belief in more ways than one.

Perhaps more surprising is what he's done in those nine events since.

Somehow, a putter-led victory has helped cement the return of Broberg's long-game, and it's that which marks him down as a danger man going forward. Across these nine tournaments he's gained in the region of 42 strokes with his approaches, ranking fourth in each of his two starts at Al Hamra and inside the top seven in five tournaments in total. Off the tee, he's been better than average in eight of the nine.

The irony then is that his driving in the Dutch Open was poor, one of his three worst displays since the beginning of 2021. His approach play was no more than decent – he's bettered it seven times since (SGA per round) and had done four times in the months before. Around the greens he was good, but not spectacular. Upon them, he was simply extraordinary.

It's Broberg's long-game, the robustness of his underlying numbers, which suggests he won't just enjoy the fruits of his exemption and then disappear back into the wilderness. The Swede, prolific on the Challenge Tour and the winner of a good European Tour event in 2015 when climbing to the fringes of the game's elite, is here to stay. And if he gets his short-game ticking over again, he will have many more chances to win.

Alexander Bjork

• Why: Playing well in less-than-ideal circumstances
• Where: Dutch Open and other courses where weak driving can be overcome
• Key stat: Putting stats remarkable consistent - gaining an average of 0.82, 0.90 and 0.93 strokes per round over the last three seasons

I'll break from character to highlight one of the DP World Tour's very best putters, Alexander Bjork.

As touched upon in a previous piece, Bjork has to make the most of a handful of realistic opportunities each year, generally on courses which are short, and where his weak driving isn't too much of an issue. As one of the shortest hitters on the circuit and not as accurate as you might assume, there are some courses which are particularly problematic.

Al Hamra might be one of them. In two events there we saw first Nicolai Hojgaard and then Ryan Fox bully it off the tee, so in shooting four rounds of 72 or better, missing the cut by a stroke during the first week and hanging around close to the top 10 for much of the second, Bjork confirmed that he's ready to strike under better circumstances.

Last year's highlights were at Valderrama, at a links-like Vallda on home soil, under similar circumstances in Denmark, and then when putting better than anyone else in the DP World Tour Championship. All four events – assuming qualification for the latter – are suitable to varying degrees, but I wonder whether he might be a candidate to succeed his compatriot Broberg in the Dutch Open, too.

Bjork didn't play there last year, but perhaps he noticed that Bernardus was wide open, allowing Broberg to spray it everywhere and win, short-hitting Alejandro Canizares to combine approach play and putting to finish fourth, and others not much further behind to capitalise on a similar formula. It's one Bjork has demonstrated throughout his career, including when shooting a pair of 65s in his sole previous start in the event. Let's hope he returns.

Thorbjorn Olesen

• Why: Quality ball-striking display last time out
• Where: The Belfry or Himmerland
• Key stat: Olesen's SG: Ball-striking by round in the RAK Classic was his best recorded

There is of course no guarantee that former Ryder Cup star Thorbjorn Olesen returns to something like his former glories – in fact, it's unlikely. However, many expected an upturn in fortunes following his acquittal towards the end of last year and it's too soon to abandon that notion despite a quiet start to 2022.

Olesen made his first two cuts, both in Rolex Series events, before coming unstuck during a fortnight at Al Hamra. However, it's worth noting that he produced near identical performances which hinged on a single shot: he missed both cuts on the number following rounds of 72-70 which contained one major mistake.

Most encouragingly, his ball-striking during the second week was the best we've seen from the five-time DP World Tour winner since his arrest two and a half years ago. Olesen was on track to gain seven strokes via off-the-tee and approach play combined, and with statistics on the circuit only available from 2019 onwards, it would in fact have been the best recorded return of his entire career. That isn't to say it would match his peak form from previous years, but it hints that his long-game is finally on the mend.

It's not the first time he's shown some kind of promise, but it does suggest we might be best taking a positive view of his first four outings, when it would be easy to be underwhelmed. The fact he's not yet got his putter to purr, a club that has been kind to him down the years, gives us further cause for encouragement, too.

Admittedly, he's been a fine desert golfer and Al Hamra ought to have suited, but as a longtime resident of London he's got a home game coming up in the spring, with a return to Denmark in the autumn also worth earmarking. Olesen's best two driving performances across 2020 and 2021 have come at the Belfry and Himmerland and while that may be a coincidence, finding an upturn off the tee looks the path back to the top of the leaderboard.

John Catlin

• Why: Promise despite totally unsuitable set of courses
• Where: ISPS Handa Championship remains an interesting option after Spain switch
• Key stat: All three wins involved gaining strokes in every department - he needs a through-the-bag, strategic test to thrive

A few years ago, Shubhankar Sharma played so-so golf in the Middle East, arrived in Malaysia for a far more suitable test, was backed from 80s into 33/1, and delivered spectacularly. Expecting something similar of John Catlin might be a little much, but he does remind me of Sharma back then.

Essentially, the American has to start every season on the DP World Tour under conditions which will never suit. He simply doesn't hit the ball far enough and doesn't play aggressively enough to thrive at courses like the ones we've seen in the Middle East, and in particular Al Hamra. Despite this, he was 15th at halfway in the first event there, and narrowly missed the cut despite a second-round 68 in the follow-up.

Before that, Catlin was 25th at halfway in a world-class Dubai Desert Classic so he's done plenty to suggest he's maintained the form which saw him end 2021 with back-to-back top-10 finishes, including at the DP World Tour Championship where he was the halfway pacesetter. Ironically perhaps, the one course in the Middle East which might well allow him to compete, the one where Sharma did, is Yas Links. Catlin chose not to play there.

What's clear to me is that he needs a change in dynamics rather than improvement in his game in order to be competitive. He loves hitting three-wood off the tee and playing what you might call defensive golf, often on shorter courses with penal rough and small greens and sometimes, as we saw in Austria, in foul weather too. The tougher things get the more likely he is to appear on the leaderboard.

Indeed all three DP World Tour wins so far came at tight, technical courses where he gained strokes in every department. That kind of all-round test is precisely what is required and having written that he might go well on the DP World Tour's first venture to Japan this spring, the switch to a fortnight in Spain is no bad thing. Catlin played well enough at 2019 Qualifying School, at PGA Catalunya, to suggest a return there will be welcome.

Matti Schmid

• Why: Real promise in scoring and ball-striking despite conceding experience edge
• Where: Bernardus will be the first course he plays for a second time - but watch for him anywhere
• Key stat: Made 27 birdies and two eagles in 108 holes at Al Hamra, playing 24 par-fives in 16-under

Matti Schmid has plenty to live up to having ludicrously been named rookie of the year for 2021. There was another rookie, Daniel van Tonder, who won a tournament and finished higher up the Race to Dubai, but the committee opted for the fresh-faced German who bagged a couple of top-10 finishes after making the cut in the Open while still an amateur.

Still, he undeniably has big potential, having been one of the best in the world before joining the paid ranks, enjoying plenty of success both in Europe and on the US college circuit. He drives the ball well – college coaches wowed at his length, although it's not necessarily jaw-dropping in the grander scheme these days – and has produced several high-class ball-striking displays in what's still a career in its infancy.

Two cuts made, two missed makes for nothing more than a solid start to the year, but his ball-striking in the Dubai Desert Classic and RAK Championship was really solid, and we've seen many of the qualities which will make for a strong career all things being equal.

So far he's been best on exposed courses like Bernardus but it's far too soon to know exactly what conditions will suit and the most eye-catching aspect of his play for now remains bursts of explosive scoring. Even in missing the cut last time he made 10 birdies and an eagle, and while Al Hamra was not complicated, it did punish extreme waywardness in a way Bernardus certainly did not.

A final point to make is that Schmid hasn't necessarily captured the imagination of punters just yet. Granted, he was edging towards short prices during a hot run late last year, but like the Hojgaard brothers I expect over the next couple of years he'll be sufficiently inconsistent to raise hopes of a nice win at a big price. Backing him blind is certainly something to consider, but we'll try to find the right week to capitalise fully on his immense potential.

Joost Luiten

• Why: Class act has fallen off the radar and is going off at big prices
• Where: Member at Bernardus but may show his hand before then
• Key stat: Gained strokes OTT in 23 of 26 measured starts since beginning of 2021, and each of his last 14

It would be difficult to argue that Joost Luiten has screamed winner-in-waiting during a low-key start to the year which has seen him follow back-to-back missed cuts with a share of 33rd in the Ras al Khaimah Classic.

However, it's certainly notable that this six-time DP World Tour winner has drifted a long way down the betting, going off at a three-figure price last time out despite boasting some of the best long-term form in the entire field.

What's more, Luiten fared better there, producing his best approach play stats since Wentworth, and he's been driving the ball well for a long time now (see above key stat). Indeed his entire tee-to-green game was good at Al Hamra, ranking 21st in the field only to struggle a little on the greens.

His putter has been up and down for some time, a comment which applies to his experimenting with club, grip and set-up, but if we widen the lens he's returned positive numbers since the beginning of last year and my overall view of his golf is that it may be a good deal better than perhaps it appears.

It was in spring last year that his game clicked, bagging first-round leads twice in a three-event spell, and while it's a shame that Austria has disappeared from the schedule, he's got plenty of strong form in Africa and one of last year's top-10 finishes came in Kenya.

Perhaps that improved effort last time will see his odds cut significantly, but if not he could be one to chance given that each of those six wins came in the kind of company he'll take on in the coming weeks. I doubt he's done with at 36, anyway.

Adrian Meronk

• Why: My player to follow in 2022 has done nothing to dissuade me from that view
• Where: Green Eagle is such a good fit - if it takes him that long to establish himself as one of the best young players on the circuit
• Key stat: Ranked in the bottom 10 around-the-greens in all three completed starts this year

I've intentionally left rookies out of this feature, partly because I profiled the Challenge Tour graduates late last year and it's quite early to revise opinions given there. A number of them also featured in my request for your eyecatchers, so scroll down for some names among that rookie class who could go on and challenge for the Sir Henry Cotton award won by Schmid in 2021.

As such I'll sign off with Adrian Meronk, who has had two chances to win in three starts since withdrawing when inside the top 20 in Abu Dhabi, having tested positive for Covid-19. The first of them saw him gain precious experience playing alongside Rory McIlroy in Dubai, and then he was unable to reel in Ryan Fox in Ras, giving up second place due to some sloppy work around the greens.

Meronk's chipping and pitching still leaves plenty to be desired and I'm sure will be something he seeks to address, but everything else is firing and if there's one aspect to have as a weakness, make it your work around the greens. Bad chippers have weeks where they get up and down plenty; bad drivers do not tend to suddenly become McIlroy, or indeed Meronk, off the tee.

The Pole hits it a mile, his approach play can be excellent, and his putting looks assured. To my eye he looks a very likely winner at some point this year, possibly on a parkland track such as Green Eagle, Eichenried, or the Belfry, where he almost got off the mark last May. Green Eagle is in Hamburg, the city of his birth, and is long and difficult, while Eichenried and the Belfry were all about ball-striking last year and a pair of poor chippers finished first and second at the former venue.

Meronk was 33/1 on his last start and contended again, so we're not likely to be getting big prices anytime soon. However, given that he has scope to become a real star and is already playing to a level with justifies a place among the favourites, there may yet be plenty of opportunities to support him.

Your early-season eyecatchers...

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