Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for RBC Heritage
Golf betting tips
1.5pts e.w. Sergio Garcia at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kevin Kisner at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew NeSmith at 150/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Doc Redman at 175/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Jim Herman at 500/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds - eight places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
There is surely no greater contrast from one week to the next on the PGA Tour than Augusta to Harbour Town; the Masters Tournament to the RBC Heritage. Where Augusta is undulating, Harbour Town is flat. Where Harbour Town is narrow, Augusta is wide. Perhaps the most significant isn't in the land or the trees but in the air: last week carried the unmistakable majesty and magnitude of the Masters and all the pressure that brings; this week is one long exhalation beneath the lighthouse at Hilton Head.
It's no wonder some of the best players in the world are knocked out of their stride when they arrive. World number one Dustin Johnson has had five goes without cracking the top 15, here perhaps because of his ties to South Carolina, but probably more because of his sponsors, RBC. At Augusta, the defending champion began the week favourite despite the presence of Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. A week later, and he's struggling to hold onto that mantle ahead of Webb Simpson.
The course itself is not be for everyone, perhaps because it isn't a challenge of decision making and instead asks a player to hit the ball from A to B to C, and so on. It would be difficult to argue that Harbour Town is a truly fair test of modern golf, because while others perhaps go too far the other way, this one tries its best to render long driving insignificant. Even in last year's stacked, low-scoring renewal, where conditions were soft, the likes of Johnson and Brooks Koepka could do no more than flirt with the lead as Simpson beat Abraham Ancer and Tyrrell Hatton.
We know what we're getting, and that is a test of accuracy and short-game skills. These tiny greens are hard to hit, sometimes impossible if you're on the wrong side of a fairway, let alone behind a tree, and it's no wonder Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk and Simpson himself are among the genuine course specialists. For once, players of their skills are not at an immediate disadvantage, a comment also true of Wesley Bryan and CT Pan, and they have made that count.
While plainly powerful, and a former Masters champion who has so often built success on the driver, SERGIO GARCIA has produced so much of his best golf on courses like this one and looks a knocking bet at 40/1.
Last Monday, I spent many hours weighing up whether to side with Garcia at Augusta, where he was just a few points bigger. Ultimately, an appalling record in majors over the four years since he won one was enough to determine that he was best avoided, one of the few things I got right in the first men's major of the year. Garcia missed the cut, which he's done in 10 of his last 12 major appearances.
For many, the key question this week will centre around Masters form, what it's worth, and how much we can forgive. The best way I can put it is to ignore it. Of course, underlying positives in any performance have worth, and I'll come to some later, but not necessarily the leaderboard itself. Cantlay almost won this after he'd almost won the Masters, but there are more recent champions who arrived on the back of a missed cut than a top 20. The two are just not comparable.
Garcia then shouldn't be deterred by his failure at Augusta, a course with which he has a love-hate relationship. And he didn't sound it, saying on Friday: "I think I played great. You know, it's just hard to know what to say. I felt like the way I played today, I should have never shot more than two- or three-under par. That should have been my worst score, and somehow, I don't know why, it just wouldn't happen. I couldn't have shot one more shot than I shot today, the way I played.
"But you know, that's the way it is. Sometimes things don't want to happen, and the good thing is I played great. I fought really, really hard, and that's what I have to take with me."
For a player not necessarily his own biggest champion over the years, those words are highly encouraging, and so too is the form he displayed in the events before the Masters. Beaten in the quarter-finals of the Match Play, Garcia had previously been ninth at The PLAYERS, and five times in 2021 he's produced top-class tee-to-green performances including when sixth and 12th in the Middle East and 11th in Hawaii.
Last year, desperate like everyone else to get playing again after lockdown, he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green at Harbour Town, only to rank 70th of 75 in putting. In finishing fifth, he evidently reminded himself that it is an ideal fit for his game, having previously been away for a decade. With winning form at Sedgefield and Sawgrass correlating really nicely, not to mention Colonial and even Valderrama, and having long been at his best in this part of the US, he would be right to draw that conclusion.
It might also be significant that Garcia's previous major start came in last September's US Open, and after missing the cut there he went and won the Sanderson Farms. In fact, he's produced quality post-major performances a number of times in recent years. Whatever the case, with his ability to bend the ball both ways at will and the magic hands he has around the greens, a decent week with the putter should make him a massive factor. He looks the best bet.
Lowry to relish return to Harbour Town
Ahead of Garcia in the market, Cantlay, Hatton, Ancer and Matthew Fitzpatrick all make obvious appeal. Cantlay was seventh here after a Masters missed cut in 2018, third either side, and loves the place in a way few world-class players do. Hatton's Sunday round at the Masters was his best yet, bettered only by Rahm, and he now returns to a course at which he was third last summer having shot middle rounds of 63 and 64, while there are few holes in the cases for Ancer and Fitzpatrick.
The latter duo in particular are tempting but at the prices, I'd rather back SHANE LOWRY to deliver on the promise he's shown over the last month or so and win for the first time since the Open Championship.
Third here in 2019, excelling off the tee but also around the greens, Lowry's iron play looks in better overall shape now and that missing piece of the jigsaw gives him a big chance. His return, last summer, came as he searched for form but with a recent top-10 finish and on the back of his best Masters performance, he's primed this time to demonstrate that Harbour Town is a good fit for him.
Sedgefield, where he also has a top-10 finish, really is an excellent guide. Simpson and Brandt Snedeker have won both events, Pan and Si Woo Kim so easily could have, and others like Ollie Schniederjans and JT Poston demonstrate the link between two old-school, tree-lined courses. Lowry's form there is a big plus.
So is Sawgrass, a course at which Simpson has of course won, and one which is also designed by Pete Dye. Everywhere you look, Lowry's flourishes of US form — even at Southwind, where he played so well last August — tell you that Harbour Town is among the best venues for him to win again, and the fact he's so often contended at Wentworth, where Hatton won last year, is also relevant.
Like Garcia, he left Augusta in a positive mood, albeit a little frustrated he hadn't done more having ranked 11th in greens hit and produced good strokes-gained approach numbers en route to 21st, a small improvement on November's 25th which had been his previous best.
"My game has been very good," he said on Saturday, stating again that he feels much better on the greens, and promising 'something special' over the coming months. By Sunday, he'd strengthened that view of his own performance, adding: "I love the way I played this week. I feel like, if I go on doing what I'm doing, I'll do something okay in the next while."
In that understated way of his, Lowry sounded confident and he could repeat Satoshi Kodaira's performance here in 2018, the Japanese finishing just outside that top 20 at Augusta before winning this. Those who produced good golf in the Masters without ever feeling the strain of being in the mix over the weekend probably arrive with the best preparation.
There is a negative, and that's the absence of his trusted caddie, Bo Martin. He's had to return to Ireland with quarantine rules there forcing his hand, and as of Sunday, Lowry wasn't sure who would be on his bag. But Lowry expects to be without him until perhaps returning to Europe, so he has no choice but to find a solution, commit to it, and resume his push for a Ryder Cup place which has been placed under real threat now.
I'm hopeful he can make the side and if he does, likely it'll be thanks to his performances at courses like Harbour Town. At 45/1 with eight places on offer I'm keen to side with him again, having put him up at 28/1 for the Honda Classic recently. The field here is stronger, but so is Lowry's course form, and there are many around him who are less suited to the task at hand.
Chris Kirk and Harris English are the right sort of fit along with Kim, but the latter was in the heat of battle for most of last week, where he cut a frustrated figure, and is begrudgingly left out in favour of KEVIN KISNER.
Another who missed the cut, Kisner had made a fine start at Augusta and was immensely frustrated to shoot 72 on Thursday. "I hit the golf ball as good today as I have in a couple of years," was his assessment, and his struggles on the greens continued on Friday as he missed seven putts from inside 12 feet.
As one of the best putters in the field, that likely one-off therefore masks some excellent play at a course which by his own admission is too long. This is a golfer who is entrenched in his belief that there are just a handful of suitable venues for him all season, and rather than bemoaning that reality has instead proved adept at ensuring he's ready and raring to go when these chances arrive.
We saw it at the RSM Classic last year, where he lost a play-off one week after missing the cut at the Masters, and when placed at the aforementioned Wyndham Championship. And we saw it when he took third place on an old, Donald Ross design in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was a surprise that he missed the cut here a few weeks before, but perhaps softer conditions didn't help and it's worth noting that he was sent off a shorter price in a far stronger field.
Back in its April slot, Harbour Town can once again prove a perfect fit for a player who first emerged when losing a play-off here in 2015, before going on to suffer the same fate at Sawgrass. In finishing second to Jim Furyk, he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and this South Carolina man absolutely adores the course and the tournament.
Interestingly, he's yet to light up these greens, which gives us scope for improvement given that he's been a consistently excellent putter down the years. Having contended here in three of his last six appearances, dating back to that breakthrough, and having won two of his three Match Play games before that eye-catching Augusta effort, he looks primed to underlined his horses-for-courses profile.
Missing the Masters is no handicap
Those who missed Augusta altogether are certainly not at a disadvantage and the pick of them could be ADAM HADWIN, who could just be spurred on having seen those pictures of the Canadian players enjoying their week together.
Hadwin's career stalled following the Presidents Cup, the arrival of a child plus the coronavirus lockdown perhaps hurting his game a little, but he looks to be back on track. With the exception of Bay Hill, he's been solid all year and his recent form shows 29th at Sawgrass, eighth in the Honda Classic and 23rd last time out in Texas.
Significantly, all of these represent personal bests at the course in question, and it's that which suggests his game is back where it needs to be. Yes, there's room for improvement with his approach play, but all other departments are firing and his short-game — he's fifth around-the-greens this season and has always been an excellent putter — could help him to contend this week.
Hadwin's Harbour Town form is solid yet unspectacular, but he's done everything well in isolation, most notably when he led the field from tee-to-green but putted abysmally in 2017. On his next visit he was excellent off the tee, and last summer he played really well except for in round one, which comes with a caveat: he'd agreed to wear a microphone on Thursday, and as soon as he was free from that he shot a second-round 65.
The kicker is that I really like Copperhead, scene of his victory over Cantlay in the Valspar, as a correlating course. Another former winner there, Kevin Streelman, is a Harbour Town specialist who describes this as a flatter version, and the likes of Furyk, Donald and Heritage champion Carl Pettersson have won there. Bryan and Grace have top-10s, and Simpson was close to capturing his first PGA Tour title when Gary Woodland edged him out.
RBC ambassador Hadwin, who has gone close at Dye's PGA West and been fifth at Colonial, looks worth backing to build on a really encouraging few months and ensure that he doesn't miss next year's Masters.
Returning to Bryan's surprise win and it later emerged that he was a Harbour Town member with stacks of course experience, and I'm hopeful some similar nuggets might lead to MATTHEW NESMITH winning his first PGA Tour title at an event which has been open to a breakthrough champion.
NeSmith, who is from South Carolina and plays a lot of golf with Kisner, won the Junior Heritage here at Harbour Town, and also proposed to his wife at the course. He calls it his second home and, as the current leader in greens in regulation who has a quality long-game without being all that powerful, it's these old-fashioned layouts which are likely to suit him best.
"Matt’s always been a ball striker," said his dad, this time last year, when asked to assess his son's prospects of springing a surprise in what was an exceptionally strong tournament. "When his iron game is on, with the greens being so small out there, that kind of plays into his advantage."
NeSmith went on to shoot 66-67-73-66, a bad hour on Saturday restricting him to 33rd, but it was nevertheless an encouraging professional debut. He ranked sixth in strokes-gained approach and greens hit, fourth in accuracy, and showed more than enough to suggest he can contend in this tournament.
"I've been around this golf course with a lead," he said. "I've won on this golf course. You start to get comfortable, and you just kind of keep doing what you've always done." He went on to add that the whole area is one of his favourites and explain that as well as being the scene of one of his standout amateur performances, he quite simply enjoys the challenge presented by Harbour Town.
Much may depend on his short-game, which has improved lately, and his putting, which is more of a worry. That said, the fact that every time he's putted well this season, he has finished inside the top 20, underlines the potential for a big week at a big price.
I often talk about the last name off the shortlist but DOC REDMAN was the last name onto it this week, and I considered dropping him on the basis that seven selections is a little on the chunky side.
But having put him up last June, when he finished 21st despite an opening 72, and subsequently seen him hit the frame at Sedgefield, I want to stick with him following some small signs of encouragement in recent weeks.
Redman has now played in this event twice, first as an amateur. On both occasions he's driven the ball well, and his iron play through the middle rounds of his second appearance was exceptional. In fact come the end of the week he was fourth in strokes-gained ball-striking, the three who finished ahead of him all inside the eventual top five, and all world-class.
That tells you how comfortable he is around the sort of classical course which should bring out the best in his game, something we've also seen in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where Snedeker, Poston, Brian Stuard and Joaquin Niemann were all in the mix.
Hailing from North Carolina and educated at Clemson, he has strong local ties and he might also be motivated by the performance of Will Zalatoris last week, the two having been part of the same Walker Cup side in 2017, one which also featured Doug Ghim.
Whatever the case, there was just — just — enough in his performance last time out in Texas, and in a narrow missed cut at Sawgrass, to give him the benefit of the doubt. At least that troublesome putter of his has picked up and if he is brought back to life by these familiar surrounds, he's good enough to contend.
Finally, as a fairly recent backer of Donald he of course earned a second look at a monster price, because he really did play well when put up for the Honda bar one disastrous hole. That said he was disappointing in weaker company in both subsequent starts, and at the same sort of price I have to lean towards JIM HERMAN.
Huge-priced winners do happen in events like the Heritage, where Kodaira and Pan were around 250/1 and 150/1 respectively, on the back of Bryan's success at 80/1, and they happen at the Wyndham, where Herman caused a shock when he got the better of Billy Horschel for his third PGA Tour win last August.
It's that form at Sedgefield, plus at Copperhead where he's been third, which suggests Herman is capable of improving on what he's done so far at Harbour Town. There were signs he might be ready to last year when, arriving in abysmal form, he led the field in driving accuracy and finished 33rd.
In fact, virtually all of his good golf lately has come under similar circumstances, that is to say he hadn't been doing anything only to improve for a shorter, old-fashioned course, winning at Sedgefield, playing well in the RSM Classic, and starting off 2021 with a decent effort at the Sony Open.
As for going ahead and winning, his three titles so far have all come the week before, during, or after a major championship, including his Wyndham win one week after the US PGA. So often, these are the events which are most vulnerable to an upset, and there's nobody quite like Herman when it comes to delivering on the back of what appear to be sustained runs of miserable golf.
Just lately, there have actually been better signs, as he hit it pretty well to make the cut at the Honda and then also advanced to the weekend at Augusta. OK, he finished way down the field, but he'll know this is where he makes his money and the combination of correlating form, course suitability, and a proven ability to win, makes odds of 500/1 hard to turn down.
Posted at 1130 BST on 13/04/21
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