Martin Matthews tipped a 7/1 winner last Sunday and returns with a big-priced fancy ahead of the final round of The American Express.
Golf betting tips: The American Express, final round
1pt e.w. Talor Gooch to win The American Express at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)
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We’re three quarters of the way through The American Express tournament and if the forecast is to be believed the ‘golfing gods’ have given us a bit of a conundrum to ponder as Sunday's final round calls for the players to face wind gusts of up to 35mph.
With these gusts forecast to be at their strongest as the afternoon progresses the players who look to have the toughest task are those teeing off later in the day, which of course means those at the top end of the leaderboard.
The men in question who look set to be faced with this challenge are Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim and Max Homa, who sit tied at the head of affairs on a 15-under total.
Looking at this trio and we have to start with the player who will no doubt be the biggest talking point heading into today, Finau.
The Utah native has posted a whopping 34 top-ten finishes on the PGA Tour since 2017 and his lone Puerto Rico success, and having failed to convert on any of the three previous occasions he has found himself with the lead or co lead through 54 holes on Tour all eyes will be on him today to see if he can finally post win number two.
The signs were good for him on Saturday as he rallied well to birdie three holes in succession after a dumped tee shot in the water on the par three 13th lead to a double bogey, and it may just be that this perennial bridesmaid is finally ready to strike again. It may also be that if the anticipated weather materialises that a battle of attrition plays into his hands down the stretch, as there is no doubt he has been found wanting on the occasions that a burst of low scoring has been required to close out an event.
All in all, though, while I have no doubt that Finau will win again and that a second success could well lead to the floodgates opening, I cannot find it in myself to back him at short odds on a Sunday to do so.
Moving on to Homa and the Californian has been open this week as to how comfortable he feels playing in his home state on a course he knows well and this familiarity has clearly lead to him building on the strong 12th place finish he delivered at the Mayakoba in his last outing before the break.
Of the trio at the top Homa has been by far the most prolific from a birdie making point of view on the Stadium Course this week, posting no less than seventeen, however he has also been prone to some big numbers making three bogeys, a double bogey and a triple bogey over the past two days on the host course and my concern for him is that if birdies become harder to come by in the conditions he may struggle to offset any further big mistakes so again he is not for me.
Of the three then that leaves us with Si Woo Kim. Those who read my own pre-tournament preview will know that I lead with the young Korean this week as I had a strong feeling that a combination of his recent really solid form and his positive history on Pete Dye designs would lead to a big week for him, and so far that has proved to be the case. Kim is yet to drop a shot on the Stadium Course this week and with him peppering pins and gaining shots for fun in all the long game departments it is only his traditionally wobbly putter that held him back on Saturday from putting daylight between him and the rest of the field.
On this basis I have high hopes he can get the job done in an event, which it should be noted has seen two third round leaders out of five triumph since the Stadium Course took over host honours, and of the three at the top he is the one in normal circumstances I would be tempted to put up this morning at the odds.
The issue, though, is that we do not potentially have ‘normal circumstances’ and I will come back to where we began, the weather forecast.
Weighing up a golf betting strategy based on a weather forecast is of course a notoriously poisoned chalice and I am sure I am not the only person who has got their fingers burnt over the years through backing players based on tee times, style of play due to a predicted weather forecast etc, only for it not to come to fruition, however in this situation I do feel we have to factor it heavily in to our thinking.
From that point of view, while I wouldn’t blame anyone for leaving the event alone and just taking a watching brief today, I will look down the leaderboard at the host of players who will feel they are within striking distance and will fancy their chances of ‘posting a number’ before the leaders battle the worst of conditions, and the one I will risk to small stakes is TALOR GOOCH.
Gooch, a native of Oklahoma who still resides in the state, is more than used to playing in the wind and has shown in his time on tour that he is comfortable in tough conditions most recently at the brutally challenging API last March where his 72 71 over the weekend was the best final two round performance only matched by one other player in the field Dechambeau.
The 29 year old who has been knocking on the door for a while now with five top five finishes over the past two and a bit seasons, posted 17th place and fourth place finishes in this event over the last two years, closing with a 64 on the Stadium Course in 2019, so he is clearly at home here, and after opening up poorly with a 74 he has really found his straps to shooting 66 65 over the past two days.
Starting back in a tie for 13th place you would normally say that Gooch has too many players to pass for a victory to be considered, however with only a four shot gap between him and the leaders it may just be that if he can grind out a solid 70 or thereabouts that he vaults up the board if others really start to struggle. Crucially also Gooch tees off 50 minutes before the leaders at 10.10AM Local Time and with conditions forecast to start to get really tough between 1-2pm that 50 minute head start on the leaders could turn out to be of real significance.
A lot of speculation of course and weather forecasts being what they are I could be left with egg on my face as we sit watching the drama unfold in serene conditions, however with four each way places and juicy odds on offer I'm happy to chance Gooch to small stakes from the pack while cheering on Kim from the front.
Published at 0955 GMT on 24/01/21