Wyndham Championship free betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Harris English at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Sungjae Im at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Kevin Kisner at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Will Gordon at 175/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Austin Cook at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

As Webb Simpson quickly usurped Brooks Koepka as favourite for the Wyndham Championship on Monday, it struck me that this was an ideal demonstration of the chasm between this week's event at Sedgefield Country Club, and last week's major at Harding Park. There, Koepka started 10/1 favourite or thereabouts, with Simpson out at 28/1. Here, despite both spending and finishing the week ahead of Simpson, Koepka is suddenly considered a less likely champion than his lower-on-testosterone compatriot.

Anywhere else and it would be hard to understand let alone explain this dramatic disappearance of the gap between them. But at Sedgefield, a home game for Simpson but more to the point a course which plays to his strengths while nullifying Koepka's, it makes perfect sense. For every tough, penal par-four at Harding Park, Sedgefield offers a friendly alternative, and for four years running this title has been won in 21- or 22-under par, with Simpson an almost permanent fixture on the leaderboard.

Last year, so straightforward was the test that J.T. Poston became the first player since Lee Trevino to win a PGA Tour event without having dropped a shot. In 2018, Brandt Snedeker opened with a breezy 59, one shot more than Si Woo Kim had taken on the Friday of his victory two years earlier. Every champion from 2014 to 2019 has broken par in every round; anyone shooting a humdrum 70 at any stage in the tournament appears to have very little chance of winning it.

When the gear shift is this pronounced, strange things can happen - hence winners at 150/1 and 250/1 in the RBC Heritage the last two times it's taken place straight after the Masters. Here at Sedgefield, a similar course to Harbour Town, things have been arguably even more volatile: five of the last ten winners were sent off at three-figure prices, including Davis Love at 500/1 and Monday qualifier Arjun Atwal at about half that. Even Poston, in-form and local, was a distance from the front of the betting.

It's true that winners have been fairly obvious this summer - in ten PGA Tour events since the restart, just one has gone to a genuine outsider. That was the 3M Open, probably the weakest field when it comes to the question marks those at the top of the market had to answer, and it too represented a stark contrast to the brutal test of the Memorial one week earlier. Here in North Carolina, it would therefore be fair to say that a shock would be less shocking, especially now players outside the top 125 in FedEx Cup points aren't playing for their futures.

With Simpson presumably still without caddie, coach and confidant Paul Tesori (update: Tesori says he'll 'give it a go'), Koepka having suffered two bruising Sundays and neither Tommy Fleetwood nor Patrick Reed having shown quite enough to merit inclusion at short odds, it's actually the middle section of the market which looks home to the best value, and in perhaps the least surprising golf tipping news of the year 2020, HARRIS ENGLISH gets the headline vote.

As I wrote ahead of last week's top-20 finish, his seventh in eight events, the standard of English's golf is that of a top 30 player in the world. The strokes-gained numbers tell you as much, and a combination of quality ball-striking and high-level putting has helped the 31-year-old put together the most consistent season of his career. Given that the last one ended catastrophically and he began this one without full status, he's probably the most improved player on the circuit after Brendon Todd.

All of this has him back where he was in 2013, when winning twice - first on a tough par 70 with bermuda greens, then on an easy one as he shot 21-under in Mexico. A combination of those two - bermuda greens but lower scoring - is exactly what he wants, and he looks primed for a return to a course where he's made six cuts in six, performing creditably during good times and bad.

Two years ago, he came here needing a big week to keep his card and produced it, 11th place enough to sneak through to the Playoffs, and he confirmed again during that event that he just loves Sedgefield. Once upon a time he said Harbour Town was his favourite PGA Tour stop, and the correlation between the two, through CT Pan and Si Woo Kim as well as Simpson and Snedeker, is strong. So too are links with Sawgrass, where five of the last eight Wyndham winners have also triumphed, and English shot a meaningless 65 there in March.

Another point to note is that last week he was back playing as a normal PGA Tour member, rather than in a coronavirus-only group having tested positive back in June. English spoke about how important it was to get back into the routine and not feel like an outcast, and I can only imagine his confidence has further increased with a major performance comparable with his previous best, which again came during his 2013 peak.

Now back at those levels and only set to improve further, English will have eyes on this week as an ideal way to secure a place in the TOUR Championship, and with it a return to the Masters. Should he do it, it will underline just how rapid the strides he's made have been since he went to work with Justin Parsons, and I'll be disappointed if his run of form comes to an end in the most winnable event he's played this year.

Other correlating courses include East Lake, another Donald Ross classic, and that's part of the case for RUSSELL HENLEY, the best bet of the lot at the prices.

This three-time PGA Tour winner is just hitting his ball so well right now that it's hard not to get excited about what might be to come, given that he was once one of the very best putters on the circuit. At 178th for this season he certainly isn't at the moment, but if anything is going to trigger an upturn it could well be a return to the east coast for a Georgia bulldog who lives in South Carolina.

Henley, who was a creditable 12th on his East Lake debut before taking third on his only subsequent visit, hasn't yet done much around here. But Sedgefield is the exception among this book of courses which are all tied together, as he's won the Sony Open and the Honda, and loves Harbour Town, and he's so far only had three goes. Eight of his 10 rounds have been sub-70, too, while last year he carded a second-round 64 which included eight birdies.

Chiefly, though, this is about how well he's playing from tee to green. Henley's iron play was the best in the field over the weekend of the PGA Championship, Harding Park's greens the sort which have long frustrated him, and each of the four players ahead of him in the tournament-long approach charts contended on Sunday and finished tied fourth or better, including the winner.

Indeed for the season, he's behind only Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Paul Casey. In the PGA Championship, the gap between him and the winner was 12 strokes - which was, give or take a decimal point, the same as the gap between them with the putter.

Of course, you'd be right to be worried that this long-term putting problem will continue, because that remains the most likely scenario. At this point it's worth noting that Pan, Hideki Matsuyama and even Luke Donald have finished second in this event while losing ground on the greens, and that the roll of honour reads like a bunch of elite ball-strikers who did enough in other departments.

Back where he's most comfortable, with confidence in his long-game at an all-time high, this proven winner stands out at 50/1 generally and 66/1 with Betfred. There's nobody in this field who is swinging it better.

Former champion Kim has attracted support and it's easy to see why. He's been first and fifth in just four starts here, has also won at Sawgrass and ought to have won at Habour Town. With his iron play suggesting he's really starting to thrive under the tutelage of Claude Harmon, this big, big talent could well collect his third PGA Tour title and second here at Sedgefield.

Still, his form to my eye doesn't look anywhere near as robust as that of English, his long-game is not of the same standard of Henley, and he's one of those who just looks too short. I'm not sure I've ever said that before about a player who has won at huge odds twice in the past, but it would be fairly typical of him to disappoint when most things point towards a successful week.

At the same price, I'm certainly in no doubt that SUNG-JAE IM rates a better bet and he's taken to make his second start here a winning one.

Im, star of the Presidents Cup last December following a rookie-of-the-year campaign, built on an eye-catching first start at the Honda Classic by winning that event back in the spring, and something similar here wouldn't surprise me. He shot an opening 62 to demonstrate an immediate liking for Sedgefield, eventually finishing sixth, and for now he does look one to follow when putting on bermuda greens.

Im's form looks to be the big concern, as he's without a top-10 finish since the first event of summer, the Charles Schwab Challenge. However, he was right on the fringes in Memphis a fortnight ago, and a missed cut at Harding Park was all about the putter. In fact it was his best ball-striking performance since he finished 10th in Texas back in June.

To demonstrate how much more effective he is on bermuda, Im had putted the lights out in the WGC-St Jude Invitational, and if he can get back in the groove on the greens I do believe he's close enough with the long-game to go well. Certainly, he'd have been half the price and perhaps less were his recent credentials more obviously strong, but the way he hit it for a missed cut in California is enough for me to pull the trigger.

Like English, Im ranks highly in the par-four stats, he's 19th in birdie average, and that debut here was seriously impressive. Leading after round one and third at halfway, a quiet Saturday while in search of his first win proved costly. That it came after a missed cut in the Open Championship further demonstrates that we shouldn't read too much into last week, and he's far too good to be going off at 40/1 in this field, on this golf course.

Ryan Moore really ought to go well while late entrant Sergio Garcia stands out on value grounds alone at 50/1. Garcia has contended in each of his five starts at Sedgefield, the sort of shot-shaper's course he adores, and was the last name off the list. I just struggle to see him shooting 20-under at any golf course right now and this should be all about making birdies.

As such preference in this section of the market is for KEVIN KISNER, another with form in all the right places.

A runner-up at both Harbour Town and Sawgrass, third at East Lake and with three top-five finishes at Waialae, Kisner's form in defeat correlates just as well as victories in the RSM Classic, WGC-Match Play and at Colonial, and while he's yet to properly contend here, Sedgefield and its bermuda greens is right up his street.

More than once in the past I've dug out the line about his preference for bermuda to the point that I don't want to dig around for it again; to paraphrase then, Kisner describes himself as an ol' southern boy who doesn't like golf out west. That elevates his top-20 finish in last week's US PGA on a course where only the winner himself managed to overcome a power deficit, for all that Kisner did putt well.

Prior to that he'd finished 25th at Southwind, ranking third in putting, and two starts before that was third in the Rocket Mortgage Classic - played in Detroit on a short, Ross-designed track which is old-school and low-scoring.

While the putter is key for a short-hitter like Kisner, it's actually the improvement in his iron play which offers most encouragement. He ranked 10th in the Rocket Mortgage and 10th again last week, his best performances in that department since he was fourth in the Sony Open. Given how long Harding Park was, that means the last two times he's hit his approaches well and been playing manageable courses, he's hit the frame.

It's easy then to believe that a move to Sedgefield - described as 'one of my favourite courses' by Kisner in 2017 - will help bring everything together and at some stage over the next five years or so, you'd expect him to have a good go at this title.

Like Henley and English, Kisner has strong ties to this part of the US and they've been put to use here in the past. Simpson, a North Carolina native, secured his first PGA Tour win here and so too did Poston, born a hundred miles west of the course and having grown up on these Ross classics which are dotted all over the state.

Adam Long's ties aren't quite so strong but he did go to college nearby and perhaps should've won two weeks ago. Given his form around similar courses, notably in Mexico, he's worth a look along with Chris Baker, who used to play minor tour golf in the region and is the sort of accurate player who often pops up here.

My preference though is for WILL GORDON, who must surely be inspired by Morikawa's exploits having competed with him at college, and who grew up an hour from Sedgefield.

Gordon has done enough on invites to earn special temporary membership to the PGA Tour, and he'll be a full member next season thanks to third place in the high-class Travelers Championship won by Dustin Johnson.

Experience of contending will serve him really well ahead of this home game and the world number 200, who had just cracked the top 2000 this time last year having turned professional at the same time as Morikawa, has heaps of potential.

A couple of missed cuts following the Travelers were no doubt disappointing, but Gordon was involved in a televised charity event alongside Casey, Fleetwood and Matt Wolff at the 3M Open, and if I were him I would probably have been asking why I'd been deemed a suitable fourth member of the group.

That spotlight probably wasn't an ideal way to prepare but he played better last time, for three rounds at least, in the Barracuda. It may just be that more familiar surroundings trigger a return to that form behind Johnson and he does know Sedgefield well, having played here plenty as a junior.

The only way for Gordon to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs is to win and we've seen enough from him to suggest it's possible, the promise he's shown at this level also including 10th in the RSM Classic and 21st in a world-class Farmers Insurance Open field.

He'll be geared up for this, his amateur form wasn't all that far off Morikawa's, and he could be the latest young gun to emerge in a tournament where Viktor Hovland contended last August.

Wes Bryan, a Harbour Town winner, made the shortlist with Bud Cauley, but AUSTIN COOK is my final selection.

A former winner of the RSM Classic, Cook makes his money by hitting fairways and is best under low-scoring conditions, which marks this tournament out as one of a handful he might be capable of winning.

It's been a fairly lean time since that RSM win, which had marked him out as one of the standout rookies of his class and a player of real potential, but he looks to have been getting his act together lately. There were big improvements in his approach and tee-to-green numbers at the 3M Open two starts back, and he was hitting fairways again when closing with a round of 66 in the Barracuda last time.

Last year, he made 20 birdies through the first 54 holes here and faded only due to a terrible back-nine in the final round. That was his first visit since a solid effort as a temporary member in 2015, and adds to the suspicion that this course, where pounding fairways comes with genuine reward, might be the sort that helps turn a run of five cuts made into a proper four-round performance.

Posted at 1930 BST on 10/08/20

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