European Tour: English Championship betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Andy Sullivan at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Jack Singh Brar at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Callum Shinkwin at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Ben Stow at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Ricardo Santos to lead after R1 at 200/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Another week on the European Tour's 'UK Swing', and another conflict between the complicated and the straightforward. For complicated, see the venue, Hanbury Manor, which last staged an event at this level in 1999. For the straightforward, refer to what's happened over the last fortnight as young, talented, sharp operators stamp their class on tournaments lacking in depth.

First it was Renato Paratore winning at Close House. He'd been involved in a couple of competitive events back home in Italy in June, then went to Austria to shake off some rust, before an impressive display in Newcastle. After him it was the turn of fellow 23-year-old Sam Horsfield, who carded a 13-under 59 during lockdown, added a competitive 61 in the British Masters, and put it all together for 72 holes at Forest of Arden.

The biggest threats to either man have come from Rasmus Hojgaard, Justin Harding and Thomas Detry, all among the top dozen in the betting, with Paratore and Horsfield both having been prominent too. As I wrote last week, this sequence of events and the US Open places that come with it should provide a list of unsurprising if not always obvious champions, and that's likely true of the English Championship.

And then there's that complicating factor again, because so few of these will have seen Hanbury Manor prior to Monday, and it's a long time since Per-Ulrik Johansson, Lee Westwood and Darren Clarke won at the course when the English Open came here in 1997, 1998 and 1999. That being said they too would've been popular selections in betting shops, and this resort-style course, like Forest of Arden, won't in all likelihood be particularly demanding.

We are down from four par-fives to three, but a couple of very short par-fours should cover that gap and something getting towards 18-under again looks like the winning score. It will be a case of stacking up birdie chances by being aggressive with approach shots, a tactic demonstrated by Horsfield who was a lowly 39th in greens but sixth in strokes-gained approach.

He could double-up but I wouldn't underestimate the prospects of a mental letdown akin to that of Paratore, so the question is where to go at the front of the market, and given that Detry is in to a prohibitive 12/1 the real conundrum concerns Gavin Green.

When last we saw this quality Malaysian, he went off the same price as this week's favourite in Qatar, twice the odds of a couple of those now ahead of him in the market, and finished 12th. That extended a run of top-30 finishes in every event he's played so far in 2020, with third in the high-class Saudi International - where he played with Dustin Johnson on Sunday - form which entitles him to be much shorter for this.

He's currently first in strokes-gained total and scoring average, fifth in birdies and putting, 18th off the tee and 22nd with his approach shots, and this youngster is going places. The trouble is, unlike just about everyone else in the field, this is the first event he's played since the spring having been practicing back home. And while there's a chance that he can overcome that handicap at what looks a generous price, my suspicion is he'll make a few too many careless mistakes despite this place being straightforward enough.

Though Green and Detry are therefore respected along with Rasmus Hojgaard, these being the three brightest talents in the field, my vote for the latest right-there-in-front-of-you winner is ANDY SULLIVAN.

Giving Detry a second chance so nearly paid off last week, and Sullivan deserves another as it was only a poor week with the putter which cost him a high finish. Entering the final round in 20th, he still had half a chance to nab a place but further issues on the greens saw him fall just outside the top 40, which does not do justice to how well he played for the most part.

That Sullivan played an easy set of par-fives in two-over during the final round tells you how things went for him on payday, but having placed in the British Masters he remains in good form. Indeed he's ranked ninth in strokes-gained tee-to-green in each of his two starts following the resumption, and at sixth in approaches for the season his iron play is back at 2015 levels.

A winner under resort-like conditions in Portugal and one whose best form has virtually all come when the emphasis is on birdies, Sullivan looks close to putting things together and is more than classy enough to win tournaments like this one. At 28/1 in a place, and on the exchanges as I type, he looks too big and is entitled to be right there behind Detry in the market for my money.

Speaking of birdies, last week's one-two currently rank ninth and fourth respectively for the season in the birdie average charts, Paratore is 18th, Hojgaard ninth, and Forest of Arden contender Matthieu Pavon is up there in 16th, with Laurie Canter - 10th last week - just one place outside the top 20, and one place ahead of Sullivan.

At another, similar golf course, where most scorecards will be colourful, I wonder if it could make sense to pay close attention to this particular statistic. So, given that he's top among those in the field and third overall, I'll chance JOHANNES VEERMAN at 100/1.

Given all I've written about predictable winners, a breakthrough for this well-travelled youngster rather goes against the grain, but the market has reacted strongly to that which I've talked about. It's very hard to make cases for the players at the top of it - I suspect the one I've provided for Sullivan won't be enough to convince many - and I'm prepared to chance some youngsters with the potential to prove themselves capable.

Veerman looks one of them, having blitzed his way through the final four rounds of Qualifying School to earn his card, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he has one of the best short-games in the field. Horsfield is dynamite on the greens and one way or another the winner here will likely be a player who is capable of converting those aggressive approaches which are a prerequisite.

Although not his strength, Veerman did hit his irons better last week than he had at Close House, and finishes of 17th and 28th across the last fortnight is a good return for a player who had never played in England before.

Five other top-30 finishes since the season began and some solid efforts on the European Tour when playing on invites or via his Asian Tour ranking show that he's getting to a stage where he's a realistic challenger at this level, and given his propensity for low numbers - second best score last Friday, fourth best on Sunday - he looks interesting.

Antoine Rozner bagged his third top-10 finish of the season last week and is tempting at 66/1, given he was a play-off loser at 100/1 in Mauritius, a similar enough field. I've put him up several times already this season, including in the aforementioned play-off defeat to Hojgaard, and were it not for the fact I think he'd prefer things tougher he'd have been given another go.

Instead, there are three young Englishmen who probably have the talent to become leading European Tour players and, with each on offer at three-figure prices having played well since the British Masters, they are chanced to hit the frame.

First up is JACK SINGH BRAR, who showed plenty of bottle to save his card with a top-10 finish in last year's Portugal Masters - again, a resort-style course where getting on the front foot is vital.

A former Walker Cup player, indeed the star of a beaten side in 2017, he's long been touted as a big talent in the making and some of his form in his second season suggests he's ready to live up to the billing. Go back to the start of the year and he was 12th in Abu Dhabi behind Westwood and then 16th in Dubai, and this is form which few of the outsiders here can hold a candle to.

Add it to that Portugal effort, 14th in the Czech Masters, 15th at Valderrama and 12th in Kenya and you have a picture of a player who has needed time to find his feet, but can now kick on. And he's ready to do it, judging by a return 17th at Close House, where many of those ahead of him had warmed up in Austria as Singh Brar decided to stay at home.

In that British Masters he ranked fifth in approaches, iron play being a strength which had just gone missing during his final couple of events in the spring. If he can marry it with some of the strongest putting stats in the field - he leads the European Tour this year and was well above-average last - then the Southampton man can get in the mix.

Next is the frustrating CALLUM SHINKWIN, one of the best drivers on the circuit and a player who should've won a Rolex Series event in 2017, when a final-hole six cost him the Scottish Open.

Who knows the extent to which that stopped him in his tracks, but I wouldn't mind guessing that had Shinkwin bailed out right and made his five like a seasoned professional up there in Scotland, he'd have blossomed into a fine player. Instead, he remains winless, he's had his injury issues, and flashes of what he can do tend to be exactly that.

Still, the positives are that he signed off with 25th in Oman, where he led through 54 holes, and after a pipe-opener at Close House he played nicely last week to finish 28th. Crucially, the putter is behaving so if he can get his irons to sing - as they so often do - this could be the time he puts it all together.

There are clearly questions to answer when it comes to getting over the line but this is very much a home game for a player based 30 or so miles away, and he has the ability to make a splash.

With the accurate Aaron Rai well found in the market now and probably keen for a stiffer test, the final Englishman I want on-side is 150/1 chance BEN STOW.

He's been 10th and 34th across the two UK Swing events so far, playing well in every round, and this capable amateur who has a Challenge Tour win in his locker since turning pro looks like he's returned in excellent shape.

Stow ranked sixth in strokes-gained tee-to-green at Forest of Arden, driving the ball beautifully, and across the two events so far he's made 36 birdies at four per round plus a couple of eagles for good measure.

Another who hasn't quite shown how good he might be just yet, Stow might not be ready to win, but he is ready to contend and I'm happy to take my chances when it comes to the weekend.

Finally, I can't resist a very speculative dart on RICARDO SANTOS to lead after round one.

This Portuguese journeyman is one of those who looks a little too good for the Challenge Tour, but not quite good enough for the European Tour - although he did well for a couple of years close to a decade ago.

In the here and now he's very unlikely to be contending, but he's putting the lights out and that has led to some remarkable scoring since the restart, including a second-round 68 at Close House in which his sole mistake was a quadruple bogey.

He made seven birdies in round one last week and six in round two, has already placed in the first-round leader market this season at the Mauritius Open, and if he does keep the mistakes off the card for just one day is absolutely capable of landing this bet.

Santos has led six times in the past, three on the Challenge Tour and three at this level, and he's played enough good rounds in the UK and Ireland to justify rolling the dice to start a week which is really all about the PGA Championship in San Francisco.

Posted at 1415 BST on 04/08/20

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