Dubai Desert Classic: Free golf betting tips from Ben Coley
Ben Coley is just about willing to take on Rory McIlroy in the Dubai Desert Classic, where he has a 300/1 first-round leader tip in his staking plan.
Dubai Desert Classic selections
3pts win Henrik Stenson at 12/1 - biggest danger to Rory and signed off in style last week
2pts win Matthew Fitzpatrick at 22/1 - born winner who remains at the top of his game
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
If Sunday's finale in Abu Dhabi was not enough to convince you of the strength at the top end of the European Tour, one look at the market for the Omega Dubai Desert Classic should do the trick.
Rory McIlroy is favourite, which I suspect he might have been even if Dustin Johnson had stuck around for another week, but on his heels are two weekend winners, three former Dubai champions and four twenty-somethings who may well make up a quarter of Thomas Bjorn's Ryder Cup side come September.
Indeed, were Bjorn to select a line-up only from those assembled in Dubai, it would be one capable of giving America a game even without Justin Rose and Jon Rahm. In an event which has gone to the subsequent Masters champion twice in succession, it's little wonder we're presented with a lopsided market. There are some very good players at very big prices, but whether there will be room for them inside the top five is open to debate.
McIlroy is a fair 5/1 shot, a couple of points longer than the 3/1 at which he won the second of his Dubai titles three years ago. I expected him to be sharp for Abu Dhabi last week and that was the case; that he didn't quite win was just golf being golf. Tommy Fleetwood played brilliantly on Sunday, Rory was a little off from the tee, and that's all she wrote.
Those hoping that this event serves as an Augusta soothsayer once more may find themselves uncontrollably excited on Sunday, because McIlroy should take some beating. But so strong is the case for Henrik Stenson in particular that I find myself compelled to opt for the bigger-priced option this time; where last week I felt that Rory's price assumed a level of rust which I did not think we would see, this week it looks like a more accurate reflection of his prospects.
Stenson, it's well known, lived in Dubai for many years and it was little surprise that he won this title when in fine form back in 2007. His record around the Emirates Course is exemplary, he says because he likes the routing: though modern when viewed as individuals, the holes here twist and turn in an old-fashioned way and in doing so demand the range of shots Stenson possesses.
I backed him here last year only for an inspired, newly-engaged Sergio Garcia to produce arguably the most impressive Sunday of his career, a performance he of course usurped at Augusta. Stenson did absolutely nothing wrong, enhancing a course record whose only blips can be explained by their years (2001, 2002, 2011). Even when playing injured in 2016, he managed to finish sixth.
Crucially, Stenson played superbly on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, careering to a top-10 finish thanks to a closing 65. "It's probably the best that I've played since I won on the PGA Tour in August last year, this round that I put together here today," he said, suggesting that it provided a platform not for Augusta and beyond, but "the weeks ahead".
Only three times in his career has Stenson teed it up a week after closing with a 65 or better, and on two of those occasions he's contended, winning one of them. While his effort in the final round was nothing compared to that of Fleetwood, who did it in the heat of battle, it could be no less significant in terms of what happens here.
A change in the schedule means that Abu Dhabi and Dubai, two events played under very similar conditions on similar courses, are no longer separated by the rather different test of the Qatar Masters, and that could mean that form from last week carries over.
If that's the case then Stenson, whose record in Dubai shows three wins and eight further top-10 finishes in just 24 events, can prove the biggest threat to McIlroy at a course which arguably suits him slightly better. The market doesn't quite see it that way and, as I also anticipate a winner from the top six or seven in the betting, the decision is made fairly simple as a result.
Fabrizio Zanotti and Andrew Johnston finished in a tie for ninth in Abu Dhabi and both are strongly considered here as a result.
The former has been playing nicely for some time, also finishing inside the top 10 in the Turkish Airlines Open won by Rose late last year, and should improve upon a pretty awful record here. That's precisely what he did last week and those hunting for a bit of value in the top-20 markets should consider the Paraguayan.
Johnston spoke of his focus after a year of distractions and injuries saw his career stall in 2017, and in two starts here has struck the ball really well. He's better suited to Qatar, though, so the rescheduling is a negative and I just wonder whether he'll be sharp enough on the greens to keep pace in this type of field.
Another to watch in the coming weeks is Richie Ramsay, who continues to stripe it and may reap the rewards soon. He was out in Dubai prior to hopping over to Abu Dhabi last week, where a cold putter let him down, but is another who might have been of greater interest in Qatar.
Still, Ramsay's comments to Martin Dempster of The Scotsman did catch my eye last week.
"Honestly, this might be the first tournament of the year, but I am already thinking of winning a tournament," he said.
"I’m normally a middle-to-end-of-the-year player, but my game feels really good. I’ve got a little bit of extra length with the driver but am also keeping the accuracy with it.
"I’ve also got a free-flowing attitude and enjoying being out here again. Maybe that’s because I had a bit more time off. Maybe that it is fuelling the fire to get back out."
Instead of relying on Stenson to see off McIlroy, or weigh in with a chunky each-way bet even, I'd prefer to serve up a two-pronged win-only attack completed by Matthew Fitzpatrick.
A winner of the DP World Tour Championship who has a top-10 finish at Augusta to his name already, the brilliant young Englishman has shown that the quality of his mid-range iron play is sufficient to overcome a relative lack of power when up against the likes of Rory, Thomas Pieters and co.
We saw evidence of it again when he finished with three birdies for third place in Abu Dhabi and that was a continuation of a run of form so consistent that it suggests to me we're in for another big step forward in his career in 2018. Already a four-time European Tour winner, he'll expect to make it five or six in his current vein of form and there's every chance he's a factor in majors and at the Ryder Cup, too.
This event looks a good fit form him. Taking apart the par-fives has been a big factor in the success of previous champions and again, while he isn't the longest, Fitzpatrick is consistently dangerous on the longer holes. In fact, over the last 12 months only McIlroy, Garcia and Fleetwood have outperformed him in corrected par-five performance, and none by a significant margin.
Last year he finished fifth, despite arguably being handed a tough draw. Fitzpatrick played alongside the reigning Masters champion, Willett, but also Tiger Woods, which means more people both inside and outside the ropes than he'd have experienced before, not to mention the nerves he no doubt experienced teeing off with the greatest player in modern golf.
Fitzpatrick coped admirably in the circumstances, but was then dealt another curve-ball when Woods withdrew ahead of the second round. That meant he and Willett played as a two-ball, which can often set players off their stride, particularly one so speedy as the Sheffield man. Given that they were behind Stenson's group, he'd have been waiting a long time on virtually every shot.
All things considered, he did extremely well to work his way to fifth over the weekend, bettering the scores of both Garcia and Stenson who dominated the event, and there's no reason to expect him to do anything but built on last week's performance. At 22/1 in a place and 20/1 generally, he looks a strong title contender.
Stephen Gallacher is a tempting 90/1 shot given that he's won this title twice and boasts six top-10 finishes in his last seven visits, with 6/1 about another also worth considering.
The Scot says he's free from the injuries and illnesses which have put the stoppers on his career since that bittersweet Ryder Cup debut at Gleneagles, when his contribution to a winning team on home soil was limited.
Last year's tie for ninth can be marked up considerably given that he was the only man inside the top 10 who went out early on Friday, when strong winds blew down trees and eventually forced play to be abandoned with the other half of the draw far from finishing their rounds.
However, as mentioned this is so top-heavy that I'm reluctant to add to Stenson and Fitzpatrick in the outright market unless with an elite player like Martin Kaymer.
Granted, the German might not be considered in that category now having gone almost four years without a win, but two majors, a PLAYERS, a World Golf Championship and the title of world number one represent a career that even some of the bright young things we all get excited about would happily accept and I still believe he can return to those heights.
There were certainly some indications towards the end of last year, particularly at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, that Kaymer can get back inside the winner's circle soon with the switch back to blades enough to make him believe it, too.
Last week he was well-backed for a fourth Abu Dhabi title for obvious reasons and while he didn't quite keep pace at the weekend, there were sufficient positives to suggest he can compete at a course where his record is almost as good.
Kaymer has hit the frame on four of his eight starts at the Emirates Course and can be upgraded on last year's 24th when he, like Gallacher, caught the worst of the draw. Any improvement with the putter from last week should therefore make him a factor and I felt that the near doubling of his price represented an overreaction to what was another solid effort.
Given what I've said about the expectation of a high-class winner, Kaymer looks a solid each-way play at 50/1. There's no way he should be a bigger price than Louis Oosthuizen, or indeed any of the others at 33/1 bar perhaps Pieters.
Finally, the first-round leader market might be worth attacking and Rayhan Thomas is overpriced at 300/1.
This 18-year-old Indian was raised in the UAE and has been a member at the Emirates Course since his early teens, building up course knowledge which saw him miss a place in this market by just one shot on his event debut a year ago.
With that experience in the bag, and subsequent performances on minor tours having furthered his understanding of what's required, it's surely not asking too much for just the slightest of improvements which could see him hit the frame at the very least.
Evidence of his scoring prowess was on show last September when he made nine birdies in succession on the MENA Golf Tour here in Dubai, where he's also won a professional event, and those who've seen his game up close say very positive things about it. Indeed, Oklahoma State have offered him a place there next year, where he'll follow in the footsteps of Charles Howell, Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler and Peter Uihlein.
Of course, he's not European Tour standard yet but, at 20th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, the feeling is that he's heading that way and we're asking only for a good 18 holes at a course he plays week-in, week-out. I understand why he's been totally dismissed in the outright market, but he's far more likely to strike on Thursday than players like Darren Clarke and Trevor Immelman.
In the same market, Nicolas Colsaerts also gets the vote.
The Belgian is bound to have been inspired a little by seeing his two young proteges contending in Abu Dhabi, and while short-game woes continue to hold him back, there's been plenty of good golf over the last 12 months from one of the most consistent green-finders on the circuit.
He led after round one on his way to second in Turkey, where only an irrepressible Rose managed to get the better of him, and it's around one in every 20 events that this habitually streaky scorer shares the lead or holds it on his own at the end of the first day's play.
His record in Dubai is good - he's been second and fourth after the first round here, second, 10th, 11th and 17th over at the DP World Tour Championship - and when opening with a 65 here a couple of years ago said he "could easily have been 10-under".
I put him up for the lead that year when Bernd Wiesberger birdied five of the last six to do him on the line, but at a much bigger price perhaps we'll be rewarded for patience and persistence.
Posted at 1745 GMT on 22/01/18.
Sky Bet specials
- Colsaerts to be inside the top 10 after round one - 5/1
- Stenson, Fitzpatrick or Kaymer to win the event - 11/2
- Thomas to be inside the top 10 after round one - 12/1
- Colsaerts or Thomas to be the first-round leader - 40/1