Free betting tips: Ben Coley's DP World Tour Championship preview
After profits on both major golf tours last week, don't miss Ben Coley's preview of the DP World Tour Championship.
Justin Rose is 7/1 to complete the transition from B- to A+ with victory in the DP World Tour Championship, as the Race To Dubai comes to a thrilling conclusion at the Earth Course this week.
The Englishman gave himself the former grade for his efforts prior to October, but told the Guardian's Ewan Murray that he's up to A- following two wins in succession which have him on the heels of leader Tommy Fleetwood.
In truth, 2017 will always be remembered as the year Rose should have won the Masters, and not even a second money list will rid him of that memory, but there's little doubt that things are looking all the brighter following trademark victories in first the WGC-HSBC Champions, then the Turkish Airlines Open.
A third here would see Rose steal the season-long title from Fleetwood, who has been the man to catch since taking the first event of 2017. Yet Rose will feel no guilt - this is a tournament which owes him one, after all, having led by two playing the final hole in 2012, where he made birdie, only then to watch as an irrepressible Rory McIlroy turned on the afterburners to reel him in.
Encouragingly for Rose backers, he has also done something similar before. Ten years ago, he won the season-ending Volvo Masters at Valderrama to overtake Ernie Els and steal what was the Order of Merit. There are many who will expect history to repeat in these altogether different surroundings.
To some, Fleetwood looked tired as he ground his way to 10th last week, counting every penny along the way, but I'm not one of those. While any new father will tell you that sleep is hard to come by, on the course the affable 26-year-old has been no more busy than Rose since the final major of the season, and has managed to keep summoning big weekend pushes after a string of frustrating slow starts. I doubt he'll blame fatigue should Rose reel him in.
It would be a shame if neither man did it, which appears unlikely but remains possible after Sergio Garcia won on home soil last month. Like Fleetwood, he's yet to land the season-long money list but his desire to do so is palpably lower, as are his prospects. Garcia needs to win in Dubai first of all, but even then would need Fleetwood outside the top 40 and Rose outside the top four; his own dream year is unlikely to get better still.
There is, then, a tournament within a tournament, Fleetwood knowing that the only way he can be certain of wrapping things up is to finish ahead of Rose, but for most players in this field and certainly most punters, the main source of intrigue is the DP World Tour Championship itself. This has rapidly become a prestigious title to win, and assembled just a short drive from the centre of Dubai are the best the European Tour has to offer - minus Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson.
Given one word to describe the course, it would be 'modern'. Opened as recently as 2009, Greg Norman's beast of a par 72 stretches beyond 7,700 yards and is in pristine condition. There is no ruggedness here and very little nuance: brilliant white bunkers, water hazards and fast run-offs might evoke images of Augusta, but this is far more straightforward and nowhere near as penal, with something close to or even beyond 20-under required.
In keeping with the modern game, length is a massive advantage, despite Matthew Fitzpatrick's victory a year ago. The brilliant young Englishman can make do anywhere but the previous seven winners, to a man, carry the ball a heck of a long way in the air. That ability brings with it options from the tee and allows even mediocre rounds to be salvaged by taking care of the four par-fives, all of which are in reach.
Fitzpatrick has been wonderfully consistent since winning his fourth European Tour title in September, to the extent that it's hard not to get excited about what he might achieve in 2018, but at three-times the price I prefer the claims of Thomas Pieters on this occasion.
A three-time winner in his own right, Pieters hasn't enjoyed the year we'd all have surely expected when he produced that sensational Ryder Cup debut at Hazeltine last September. Yet, while the absence of titles is no doubt a source of great frustration within his camp, he has produced several of the best performances of his career in defeat, finishing fourth in the Masters, second in the Genesis Open, fourth in the Bridgestone Invitational and fifth in the new WGC-Mexico.
Each and every one of these efforts came under conditions which favoured big hitters. Dustin Johnson won two of them, Augusta has long played into the hands of those who can attack the par-fives in two and the Bridgestone is played at Firestone's South Course, one of the most big-hitter friendly tracks in the United States despite being just a par 70.
Pieters' desert form is good, too. He was runner-up to Rickie Fowler in Abu Dhabi last year, having been fourth in 2015, and while yet to be a factor at the Earth Course he did open with a pair of 69s in 2015 and was on his way to a third until making eight at the par-five 18th, having taken six there in each of the first two rounds.
Last year, he managed 20 birdies and an eagle - comparable to the winner, who was better by just a single birdie - and the hope is he can put this experience to use, eliminate the mistakes and make a run at the title with eight rounds under his belt.
Of course it's a concern that mistakes creep in, especially in light of his form in the second half of the season, but the Belgian has struck the ball well on a couple of occasions recently and caught the eye when finishing 11th in Turkey, unable to get anything going on Sunday but ultimately producing his most complete performance since August.
Pieters is the same price as compatriot Nicolas Colsaerts and looks by far the better value now we've some tangible form to work with and a course which really shout suit him down to the ground.
It stands to reason that leaderboards from the Dubai Desert Classic should stack up here, and that's very much the case. Rory, Stenson and Alvaro Quiros have all done the double, Andy Sullivan has achieved the runner-up double, and there are many others who are able to find their games at both courses.
As such, 2012 DDC winner Rafa Cabrera Bello is worth backing at 40/1 to finally put four rounds together at a course which is no less suited to his game.
The Spaniard loves playing in the Middle East and while his best finish in this event is ninth (2014), that doesn't come close to telling the full story. He in fact led going into the final round that year and was in position to complete the job only to play the final five holes in six shots more than winner Stenson, and there are other examples of good golf which has ultimately gone without reward at the Earth Course.
Last year, a third-round 63 saw Cabrera Bello move from 23rd at halfway to fifth with a round remaining while he was fourth after round one in 2013, and sat inside the top 10 on his very first visit back in 2009. Rounds of 63, 64 and 65 tell you just how much damage he can do and it's a theme which runs through his record across the Middle East, which accounts for five of the best 15 performance of his career.
"I always say the same thing: I feel very comfortable playing in short sleeves with warm weather," he said here in 2013. "The palm trees around and all the sand, it reminds me of the Canary Islands. So I do feel a lit like home here even though we are in another part of the world.
"I do appreciate playing in good weather and these good courses, and of course Dubai, with me having won on the other side of the road here, obviously always brings back good memories to be in this city, yes."
It's five years now since Cabrera Bello won the Desert Classic, but at least the victory drought is over courtesy of his play-off defeat of Callum Shinkwin at the Scottish Open back in July, an event now under the Rolex Series banner and all the more important for it.
While handed a chance by the young Englishman, it was impressive to see Cabrera Bello grab it with both hands and perhaps his own performance at last year's Ryder Cup, where he was exceptional and underused, will see him continue to cut a tougher figure in the heat of battle.
Last week's modest effort in South Africa is easily forgiven and prior to it he'd finished fifth in the WGC-HSBC Champions on the back of 10th in Malaysia and 11th in Korea, which means that the overall state of his game appears to be excellent.
Having ranked inside the top six for greens hit here in four of his seven visits and struck the ball well for some time now, Cabrera Bello should be in position to take advantage of his improvements with the putter.
Hopefully, he can confirm that he's also improved when it comes to self belief and if that's the case, another step forward in his career awaits.
So impressive was Scott Jamieson last week that he's tempting at 125/1.
The Scot has been inside the top six in two of his last three starts and can take massive positives from how hard he made things for Branden Grace, while his form here offers some encouragement with a best of 14th in three visits.
However, Jamieson hasn't really looked like winning at this level outside of South Africa and I'd rather stick with the proven credentials of Thorbjorn Olesen, another 40/1 shot.
For my money, the Dane is playing the best golf of his life right now, achieving a level of consistency which had previously been absent despite his obvious talents.
Olesen's only missed cut since the BMW PGA in May came at the quirky Dunhill Links, and a 67-65 weekend at Firestone in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational goes down as one of the best top-level performances of what's still a fairly young career.
Like Cabrera Bello, he's an excellent desert performer, finishing second in Abu Dhabi where he missed a 15-foot putt for a play-off, adding second in Qatar last year to go with a previous third in the same event, plus third, fifth and eighth in the Dubai Desert Classic.
His record here is also strong, with nothing worse than 21st in five visits, and this has been his best preparation for the event since 2014, the year of his standout effort at the Earth Course where he was inside the top-five after each of the first three rounds but doubled the 18th in the third of them and couldn't get anything going thereafter.
Unsurprisingly, Olesen says he loves it out here and in a field absent of McIlroy and Stenson, he looks good value to win the biggest title of his career and make a move towards a place in the Ryder Cup team, which he's been earmarked for since his rookie season.
There are two others I like at considerably bigger prices, but it might be worth backing Callum Shinkwin and Haydn Porteous for the first-round lead, rather than outright.
Even without the aforementioned star duo of McIlroy and Stenson, this is a very strong field with the likes of Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed along for the ride, and while both these players can show up for a time there have to be doubts as to whether they'd be quite able to see it through on Sunday.
By contrast, there are no concerns when it comes to topping the leaderboard after round one, something they've both done this season. In fact, Shinkwin led after round one of the Czech Masters, which Porteous went on to win, while the South African was top of the leaderboard in Turkey as recently as a fortnight ago.
Porteous has already bagged a top-10 finish at the aforementioned Dubai Desert Classic and appears to be really hitting his stride now, which bodes well for the Joburg Open next month, an event which has been moved to a course where he once won an amateur title by 14 shots.
In the more immediate future, however, he can limit the mistakes which just cost him a top-10 finish last week, which he was on course for until a bogey-bogey finish, and make an early move up the leaderboard on his first start at the Earth Course.
Shinkwin also makes his debut here having rediscovered his scoring touch with 16th in Turkey and 29th last week.
Like Porteous, he has the required length to really take to the place and while his European Tour form in the Middle East is only modest so far, among his standout efforts on the Challenge Tour was third place in Oman and he remains completely unexposed.
Both players will tee-off fairly early owing to their respective Race To Dubai positions and while not a huge advantage in a limited field, we've seen the likes of Alejandro Canizares, Marcus Fraser and Julien Quesne either land this market or go mighty close in recent years, as well as Colsaerts who was out before the bigger names 12 months ago.
Again, in all these renewals there was the risk of Rory doing what he used to do and flying out of the traps, but with Rose a habitual slow starter these days and Fleetwood bemoaning his Thursday play for some time, there looks to be a fine opportunity for somebody further down the rankings to enjoy their day in the sun before the real battle begins.
Recommended bets: DP World Tour Championship
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Posted at 1820 GMT on 13/11/17.