Dell Technologies Championship preview and tips from Ben Coley
Golf expert Ben Coley retains faith in Rory McIlroy as he seeks a third victory in the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston.
Recommended bets
3pts win Jordan Spieth at 22/1
1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 60/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The battle for the world number one spot provides an interesting subtext to the final edition of the Dell Technologies Championship, with TPC Boston set to become a part-time host of The Northern Trust from 2019 onward as we're robbed of one of the staples of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Brooks Koepka narrowly missed out on the chance to usurp gym buddy Dustin Johnson on Sunday and one thing we've learned over recent years is that getting to the top of the world rankings means a lot, even to characters like Koepka, however flawed we might consider the system to be.
Back in the spring, Justin Thomas flattened out when presented with a similar opportunity at the WGC-Match Play and while he did enjoy a brief spell at number one soon after, it would take him until the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in August, almost six months later, to recapture his best form and win his 10th title as a professional.
Koepka has been striking the ball beautifully of late and it seems a matter of time before he wins just a second non-major title on home soil, but that number one distraction surely cost him over the closing holes of The Northern Trust - not just on the greens - and remains enough of a concern to look elsewhere at a course he's so far yet to crack.
Thomas is too good to be hamstrung by defending a title and his first PGA Tour wins came in back-to-back renewals of the same event, so with Johnson hitting some worryingly poor shots and relying instead on the putter last week it's perhaps the reigning FedEx Cup champion who deserves the most respect at the head of the betting.
But while focus is quite rightly on that trio I believe we might just be about to witness Rory McIlroy return to his best and perhaps even repeat his 2016 heroics, when an otherwise lacklustre year ended in spectacular fashion with two wins in three to capture the $10m FedEx Cup bonus.
McIlroy has taken a fortnight off since the PGA Championship but has never been one who needs to have played the previous week to contend, and the case for him here is based on the fact that TPC Boston is one of the courses best suited to his game.
In 2015 and 2017 he played this event short of full fitness, winning impressively in between, while back in 2012 he was superb in reeling in and then holding off Louis Oosthuizen to win in 20-under-par and he also finished fifth after a disappointing final round in 2014.
That 2016 success in particular was seriously impressive. McIlroy made a triple-bogey in the first round and a double in the third, but closed 67-66-65 nevertheless, carding a total of 24 birdies and one eagle to reel in Paul Casey with three shots back to third.
In 2012, the gap back to fourth-placed DJ was six shots as he managed 25 birdies and an eagle and while he was at the very top of his game at the time, the remainder of the top five were or are now major champions. It was a dominant display against world-class rivals.
Sky Bet specials
7/1 any of the four tips to win
11/10 any of the four to be 5th or better
20/1 all four players to be 20th or better
100/1 any three of the four to be 5th or better
Two wins in seven starts, one of which he played injured and another when working his way back from ruptured ankle ligaments, underlines just how comfortable he is here and the only other venue at which McIlroy has won twice on the PGA Tour is Quail Hollow, a strongly correlating course and one at which I believe he'd be considerably shorter in the betting.
With a scoring average of 68.85 and having earned more money at TPC Boston than any other player, McIlroy's effectiveness at this par 71 is clear and while the talk will always be about his short-game, that department was absolutely fine both at Firestone, where he contended, and at the PGA Championship.
The issue in two starts since he briefly threatened to steal the Open Championship has been McIlroy's approach play but a fortnight off will hopefully have been enough for him to turn around a part of his game which comes naturally and if that's the case, he'll be a big threat to all here.
McIlroy loves these bentgrass greens, will receive plenty of Irish support from the boisterous crowds and is also expected to be greeted by a course which has again been softened by rain, conditions under which he's at his most destructive.
An increasingly polarising golfer who some have turned against, he's still very much capable of peaking in time for the Ryder Cup and this is the event which offers him the best chance to gain a second piece of silverware in 2018.
As regular readers will know, I also have faith in Jordan Spieth's capacity to turn nearly weeks into another title very soon and at 22/1 on a course we know he likes, he's simply too big a price and therefore goes in alongside the headline selection.
Spieth wins at roughly twice the implied strike-rate on the PGA Tour and the idea that he's a world away from the player he was I find hard to understand, as he's still managed to contend for two majors this year, was also 12th at Bellerive and then fired a third-round 64 on his way to 25th place last week.
Clearly, he's not been at his absolute best but it's coming and a return to TPC Boston ought to conjure something, as it was here that his career took a big step forward when a final-round 62, during which he finished birdie-birdie-birdie-eagle, secured him a Presidents Cup wild card pick in 2013.
Last week his approach play was excellent and it's now five measured tournaments running where he's putted well, which was clearly the issue at the start of the year, so when he says he's worked something out in his set-up the evidence suggests he's absolutely right.
He'll probably need to drive the ball a little better but again, switching to Boston gives him the opportunity to find that comfort level as he ranked second in strokes-gained off-the-tee here last year, his second best performance of the campaign in that department.
Spieth was frustrated not to win 12 months ago, but given that he was three-over after nine holes of the tournament it was some comeback to force Thomas to pull out all the stops and he'll be all the more eager to succeed his friend this time.
It was also Spieth's long-game which powered his earlier top-five at the course and, like McIlroy, he's proven on bentgrass greens having twice won the John Deere Classic and also taken the Travelers Championship in style last summer.
At 33rd in the FedEx Cup standings he's one good week away from securing a place at East Lake and a focused, improving Spieth is a threat to all over the next three weeks.
Jason Day's scoring average here is up there with McIlroy and Spieth but his best efforts at the course are several years old now, while it's a long time since Tiger Woods so much as played here and I wouldn't be convinced that last week's improved driving means he's about to put all the pieces together.
Jon Rahm and Justin Rose have to bounce back from poor efforts at Ridgewood and the latter is also part of the world number one battle, while Adam Scott has needed to putt the lights out to contend over his last two starts and he'll surely struggle to keep lightning trapped in a bottle despite having won here in the past.
With names like Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay next, it's clear to me that Spieth and McIlroy are overpriced. Something has to give with so many elite players right now and both comes with risks attached, but the course is the real kicker. Around here both deserve the benefit of the doubt with McIlroy in particular considered excellent value.
At bigger prices, Daniel Berger interested me having put together a couple of promising efforts either side of a forgivable missed cut at the Wyndham Championship. It's been a quiet season for the cocksure Floridian but his deadly iron play and reliable putting make him a potential contender here as he has been in the past.
Danny Lee scraped into the event with another solid performance and could enjoy this free roll of the dice, while Rafa Cabrera Bello is an ideal type for the course and this is his last chance to earn a Ryder Cup place by turning the head of Thomas Bjorn with something like a top-five finish.
Chez Reavie ought to have won this title in 2011 and is on the radar at 200/1, but I'll return to a couple of bentgrass specialists of a slightly higher class to complete the staking plan in an event which has been dominated by big names in recent years.
First, I like Marc Leishman's winning form at the Travelers and Bay Hill in terms of pointing towards success in this event, and it's almost a year since he earned a deserved Playoff victory on the bentgrass greens of Conway Farms in the BMW Championship.
The Australian was in control of this tournament with nine holes to play last year to confirm that the course suits, something he hinted at on his 2009 debut when shooting a second-round 62. Twelve months ago he made the turn on Sunday at 18-under and given that Thomas won in 17-under, it's pretty clear that Leishman let slip a brilliant opportunity.
His performance last week was encouraging as he began to strike the ball really well and closed with a round of 67 for 34th having been grouped with Tiger Woods over the first two days, and while Leishman tends to hold his own in that scenario it's still difficult to get into a rhythm for most players.
This season has seen an understandable downturn from the highs of 2017 but Leishman, whose four top-tier wins have all come at the expense of TPC Boston winners, is capable of stepping up just a little from last week's effort and going some way to righting the wrongs 2017.
Finally, he's immensely frustrating but if Louis Oosthuizen is going to win in the US, it's quite possible his success comes here in Boston.
As with all of my selections, Oosthuizen will enjoy a switch to bentgrass greens and in four starts in the event his worst finish is 30th, which came last year when his customarily strong long-game deserted him.
Rounds of 63, 64, 65 and 66 at the course speak to how well he plays it and Oosthuizen was a shade unfortunate to bump into an on-song McIlroy when runner-up in 2012, just as he has been to finish second in every major and the PLAYERS Championship.
Oosthuizen has been inside the top 30 in each of his last six starts, four of which have come in elite company, and if he continues to drive and putt as well as he has been then just small improvements elsewhere could see him go very close.
At 69th in the FedEx Cup standings, the South African still has work to do over the next fortnight if he's to qualify for East Lake and he'll know that a return to TPC Boston gives him a serious chance to take care of business.
Posted at 1200 BST on 28/08/18.