US Open golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for major at Torrey Pines
Ben Coley tipped a 150/1 winner last week to take his profit for the year to over 450 points — don't miss his in-depth US Open preview.
Golf betting tips: US Open
4pts e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 25/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11)
1pt e.w. Will Zalatoris at 45/1 (bet365, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 45/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
Thirteen years ago, Tiger Woods won his 14th major when he beat Rocco Mediate in a Monday play-off for the US Open. Even in a career so extraordinary as his, this one-legged triumph stands out as perhaps the best demonstration of inarguably the greatest player of his generation: however you weigh the parts, it was a combination of Woods' extraordinary ability, his refusal to quit and his desperation to win which ultimately saw favourite beat 500/1 shot.
We've all seen that putt on the 18th hole many times before. Slowed down, Woods' ball bounces along Torrey Pines' notoriously imperfect greens with an abandon which should have made its destination uncertain. But when it found enough of the hole to submit, and Mediate wryly reacted with 'I knew he'd make it', well, so did all of us. Part of the genius of a sportsman like Woods is to convince everyone watching, if only for a second, that their power over the outcome is someway supernatural.
It's a shame that Woods isn't here to try again, to reach for number 16 at a course he loves, but there are heirs apparent wherever you look in what is otherwise a fascinating renewal. That one of them arrives having had a PGA Tour title cruelly taken from him a week and a half ago, because of Covid-19 and close contacts, only adds to that fascination, and makes this a major of its time.
You could argue that Jon Rahm has looked the man to beat here since 2017, and the moment he holed a famous putt of his own on the famous 18th hole at Torrey Pines. That was for his first PGA Tour win and he's since underlined an affection for the South Course which, alongside that spectacular and dramatic return to form at the Memorial Tournament, entitles him to favouritism. Whether or not he quite deserves to be as clear as he is, further than any player I can remember for quite some time, is what it is (Woods' influence is wide-ranging). He is the man to beat.
There is some debate as to what form in the Farmers Insurance Open is really worth. That early-season tournament is played here at Torrey Pines, albeit encompassing the easier North Course for one of the first two rounds. On the one hand, Woods won it seven times, including in the same year as his US Open success. On the other, some of those who made him work so hard for it have poor records in the PGA Tour event, and conditions from January to June can change markedly.
My view is that it still has real worth, which would be good news for Rahm backers. Ultimately, the South Course is difficult because it is long, the fairways are particularly hard to hit, the rough is thick, and the greens are small, firm, and bumpy. All of those things remain true, just intensified by the USGA and the weather. Those who've built up experience of the course, especially that which is positive, should be at some kind of advantage. And they can look to players like Ryuji Imada, who was runner-up in January and then just outside the top 10 in June, for evidence of that.
Who are the best bets for the US Open?
With that in mind I like the look of VIKTOR HOVLAND at 25/1 generally and 28/1 in a place.
Although his two PGA Tour wins to date have been somewhat low-key, taking place as they did in Puerto Rico and Mexico and with few of the world's best involved, Hovland has continued to climb the rankings this year and now sits on the fringes of the game's elite.
No fewer than six top-six finishes in 12 stroke play starts demonstrate how persistent a threat he's been in 2021, and the first of them came here at Torrey Pines when he finished second to Patrick Reed in the Farmers, during which he carded a second-round 65 on the South Course which should go down as one of the very best of the season.
The only player to really threaten Reed in the final round, Hovland should've taken plenty from that performance and it's one of several excellent displays so far in California, where he won the US Amateur, then finished 12th in the US Open before turning professional, and also took fifth place on his debut at Riviera in February.
While the 2008 US Open produced an eclectic leaderboard, strong form on the west coast was a consistent theme. Mediate went on to record his (presumably) final PGA Tour win at Cordevalle, John Merrick did the same at Riviera, subsequent Torrey Pines winner Brandt Snedeker wasn't far behind, and Lee Westwood's US Open record in California now reads 7-5-3-16-10, third place coming here and in agonising fashion.
Hovland says he's not fond of most courses in Florida, where he suffered a dip in form this spring, whereas a return to these grasses and the Pacific coast can be seen as a big positive. I would have it down as far more relevant and potentially predictive than paspalum grass, which was a feature at Kiawah Island and, through those two wins, saw Hovland prove a very popular choice at 20/1.
A few weeks later we can have a slightly bigger price, with far more robust evidence. That effort in January, where he co-led the field in scoring on the South Course, could be hugely informative despite the changing conditions. And while he's not yet had a real taste of contending for a major, the affable 23-year-old might be the type to emulate college sparring partner Collin Morikawa and take the first chance that comes along.
If he has a weakness it remains the short-game, but he's putted poa annua well enough so far, and the thick rough around these greens might be a leveller. Certainly I would prefer to take my chances when he does miss a green in this scenario, rather than the tight lies and waste areas of Kiawah Island, with encouragement drawn from the PGA Championship at Harding Park and last year's US Open at Winged Foot.
Can Bryson DeChambeau defend his US Open title?
It's those two courses which I suspect may prove an excellent guide, and which say so much about how majors in the US, particularly those run by the PGA and the USGA, tend to play out. No, Morikawa is not the longest, and he was a spectacular winner of the PGA Championship. But those behind him were exclusively powerful: Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler and Matt Wolff rounded out the places, with Justin Rose ninth and Cameron Champ tied for 10th.
At Winged Foot, it took a spectacular putting display for Zach Johnson to finish inside the top 10, but DeChambeau and Wolff had it between themselves from very early on, and the likes of Finau, DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Will Zalatoris were among the also-rans in the top 15. As Kevin Kisner said a week ago, thick rough and narrow fairways on long golf courses only serves to underline the advantage which powerful players have. Put everyone in the fairway, and a player like Kisner can pick his battles, and try to overcome any deficit from the second shot in. At a course like Torrey Pines, that may not be possible.
So, BRYSON DECHAMBEAU gets the nod ahead of Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, these three considered the pick of the elite players at the very top of the market.
DeChambeau is just so well served by the set-up of courses like these and that simply wasn't the case on past visits to Torrey Pines. Although second here as a junior, in the Farmers he's missed both cuts, failing miserable on the South Course. Yet this was a different player, completely so, and it's close to meaningless in the here and now.
Instead, we should focus on one of the small group of two-time winners this season, who is still working out Augusta, was always going to be vulnerable at Kiawah Island, and will find this much more suitable — just as he did Harding Park and Winged Foot.
McIlroy explained it in the aftermath of his runaway victory in September, saying: "The one thing that people don’t appreciate is how good Bryson is out of the rough. Not only because of how upright he is, but because his short irons are longer than standard. So he can get a little more speed through the rough than other guys."
DeChambeau's coach, Chris Como, subsequently offered a similar view. "The swing speed is massive; it just gets the club through the rough better," he said. "And the strength and the mass help because he’s able to get his muscles though it. So to be able to kind of hit these higher lofted clubs and just throw the ball up as high as he could and basically aim to the middle of the green more or less when you’re coming out of the rough worked."
It's this ability which I think puts DeChambeau at an advantage over just about every player in the field, and while the kikuyu grass used here at Torrey Pines does add a degree of unpredictability, the reigning champion is best placed to deal with whatever lie he gets. Rest assured, everyone will be playing a lot of shots out of the rough, more so than almost any other week of the year.
If I do have a concern it's this ongoing and increasingly unpleasant feud with Koepka, which could prove a distraction. That said, we probably have a tendency to underestimate DeChambeau's mental strength, and he is at least on home soil in California, whereas I'd have been more worried in New York or indeed last time out in South Carolina.
All of that is hard to measure, but his suitability to the challenge ahead looks obvious and at 18/1 he has to feature in the staking plan as he bids to emulate Koepka and defend this title.
Big-hitters at big advantage
Power in general should be a huge advantage. It always is at Torrey Pines, where it's normal to see some of the biggest sluggers on the circuit in the mix, and this time the shorter hitters don't have the respite of a day at the North Course. The South, at a maximum of 7,765 yards, is pound-for-pound the longest on the circuit and all three par-fives are very hard for certain players to reach, without being out of view for players like DeChambeau.
Given everything I've written, only price could keep TONY FINAU out of the staking plan but those extra place terms we get for major championships are sufficient to include him.
With just one low-key win to his name, it's difficult to excuse Finau's returns over the years and I won't seek to, except to say he was inches from taking the Genesis Invitational thanks to a stunning final round, and has had his pocket picked by Xander Schauffele and Webb Simpson on other occasions.
What we can say is that if he's been friend to the punter it's those who've backed him each-way in majors, who have been paid out as many as 10 times in 20 attempts. That's a fine record which includes nine top-10 finishes in his last 13 appearances, and while some have been a tad flattering, he's also been right in the thick of things in all four of them.
Unsurprisingly given he's among the longest hitters, Finau is particularly effective on long, difficult courses, which in turn explains why he's adapted to various tests at this level. This time, however, we don't need to speculate: ever since he emerged on the PGA Tour at the back-end of 2014, Torrey Pines has been one of his best and most rewarding stops.
All told he's played the Farmers Insurance Open seven times and is yet to finish worse than 24th. Crucially, he's got six sub-70 rounds at the South Course to his name, and has gained strokes on the field in each visit. That includes back in January when he wasn't at his best off the tee yet still finished second to Reed, and he's rewarded each-way backers on four of his last five starts in that event.
"Yeah, the South sets up nicely for me with my length," he said in 2018. "I think length is a big advantage on the South specifically, so I've been able to put some good rounds together there. You know, it looks pretty good to me. A lot of the holes you can hit a fade and I'm a fader of the ball, I like hitting the fade off the tee."
Throw in the fact he almost won at Riviera, that his California form includes a Korn Ferry Tour win and more recently reads 4-2-2 in 2021, and that he improves for poa annua greens, and Finau has a near-faultless profile. There is just one thing missing, and that's silverware. Perhaps this is the week.
Patrick Cantlay and Schauffele are two more obvious players here, both of them from California, both in form. The latter boasts a superior major record and finally put it all together here earlier in the year, but Cantlay has winning form and I wouldn't seek to asterisk his victory last time. He still had to go out and beat Morikawa on Sunday, he still produced world-class tee-to-green figures, and of the two he would make far more appeal.
But I prefer the unexposed WILL ZALATORIS at around twice the odds, even if, as with Scottie Scheffler, there's a slight concern that he remains without a win on the PGA Tour as yet.
Still, Zalatoris has done everything but and you wouldn't have known he was a maiden when he chased Hideki Matsuyama home at Augusta, nor when he was sixth at Winged Foot and then eighth at Kiawah Island, making for a stunning sequence of major results.
Hailing from California, for all he now lives in Texas, Zalatoris will be relishing this return to the west coast and he was a very good seventh in the Farmers back in January, his South Course scoring (eighth in the field) holding up well.
"Torrey being as long and tight as it is, that only fits in my favour," Zalatoris told Golf Digest. "I’ve said this before, out of the four majors, I think the US Open probably fits my game best. You have to drive it straight and drive it far. I played really well in the US Open at Winged Foot, and at a place like this, length is a priority. Guys are only going to be hitting half the fairways, and so if I’m 15 to 20 yards ahead of them, it’s a massive advantage."
As for the greens, which are not to everyone's liking, he added: "I love poa annua greens. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but I grew up on it, and the earlier you play it the better."
That all makes for a straightforward case for the player whose ball-striking was second only to Cantlay in the PGA Championship last month, having been the best in the field prior to that, and one whose prodigious length is complemented by awesome approach work.
The negative would be that his trademark iron play went badly missing last time out at Colonial, but his field-leading performance at the Byron Nelson came after a poor effort at Quail Hollow, and this volatility is to be expected. Ultimately he's playing under ideal conditions here and has shown himself to be ready for this level.
There are a couple of players at enormous prices who I'm really keen to side with, and there will be a 300/1 shot revealed in Tuesday's specials piece. However, the US Open has been broadly predictable, especially when set-up in the way Torrey Pines will be, with McIlroy, Johnson, Koepka and DeChambeau all capitalising on conditions which put them at an even greater advantage.
Case for English challenger...
For that reason I'm focusing on top-drawer players with serious power at their fingertips and while Scheffler and Jason Kokrak are both of some interest and Sergio Garcia too if he can put his major malaise to rest, it's PAUL CASEY who rounds off the staking plan.
Casey was brilliant when contending behind Morikawa at Harding Park, and he also fought back from an opening 76 to climb inside the top 20 at Winged Foot — that's despite being one of just two players who shot worse than 74 on Thursday and still managed to make the weekend.
That means Casey's form in the two events I consider to be the best guide is right up there with DeChambeau and Finau, and he's always been dangerous on the west coast, where he has lost a play-off at Riviera, also finished second at Pebble Beach (and Harding Park), and has been third at Silverado.
Having been popular at 40/1 and shorter for the Masters, we can have a slightly bigger price here despite the fact he's remained in good form since and arrives having been fourth in the PGA and sixth when defending his European Open title last time. Across both these and the previous Valspar Championship, he's ranked fourth or better from tee-to-green, and his putter has been improving.
A winner already this year and playing some of the best golf of his career, Casey only really falls down on a lack of evidence that he can score at Torrey Pines. However, he was 28th when last playing the Farmers, his recent form is stronger now, and his blend of sheer strength and some of the best iron play in the sport is one I like.
Some may argue he's not a winner, but if he does break through it will be the 20th title of a 20-year career, a record all bar the very best of their generation would be proud of. And although he's been around for so long, it's only recently that he's really had a look at winning a major, and perhaps only now that he believes he's good enough.
I certainly do and he looks the pick of the English challengers in a US Open which could well play out exactly as its organisers want it to.
Posted at 1800 BST on 14/06/21
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