Ian Richards is taking three against the field at the halfway stage of the Qatar Masters, with Benjamin Poke among his selections.
Recommended bets
0.5pt e.w. Darren Fichardt at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Jack Senior at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Benjamin Poke at 70/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
The cut has fallen at one-under at the new Education City in Doha with 77 players teeing it up over the weekend. We have lost the pre-tournament favourite Martin Kaymer who, despite having four birdies and an eagle, shot one-over in his first round. That seems to be the sort of course it is: a hole with a big number is possible at any time, as Adri Arnaus showed with a quintuple bogey nine on day one – the only hole on which he dropped a shot.
We have joint leaders with Andy Sullivan and Jorge Campillo both having reached 10-under and, with no real wind forecast over the weekend, I would suggest the winning score will be around the 16-under mark. With that in mind the winner will probably come from those who currently reside within the top 20 and who are therefore within four of the lead.
Sullivan is the marginal favourite but having won three times in 2015 he hasn't kicked on. Those wins were hardly in the greatest events – two co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour and then the Portugal Masters. He has history in this event - in 2017 he was co-leader at the cut yet could only finish 28th - and with the field so bunched he isn't for me.
Jorge Campillo has exactly matched Sullivan with a brace of 65s but he has been totally out of form since he won nearly a year ago in Morocco on his 222nd European Tour start, and that fact alone puts me off backing him. Add in the fact that oddly enough he was tied for the lead with Sullivan in this event in 2017 and shot a third round 75 and it has to be a definite line through his name.
Tucked in behind in tied third we have no fewer than five players just one shot behind, headed in the betting by Joost Luiten at 6/1. It’s maybe a case of once bitten, twice shy as after being in with a great chance last week in Oman he holed nothing on the Sunday morning before frustration got the better of him eventually finishing 10th.
Marcus Kinhult is just 7/1 to notch his second European Tour win but he has had a really poor start to the year although I am mindful his British Masters win came on the back of four missed cuts. He's got a touch of class and went close in this event the year Eddie Pepperell won, with the move across Doha seemingly making no difference.
The similarly talented Romain Langasque got nine-under thanks to an incredible run. He hit the pin on nine, nearly recording a hole-in-one, then holed out from fairway on 11 for an eagle, before holing out from a greenside bunker at the following hole for birdie. Everybody needs a bit of luck when recording their first victory, but it’s possible he used up all of his a couple of days early.
Alex Bjork shot a bogey-free 63, showing what can be done around this course, but I have my doubts he will be able to back up that score tomorrow. He's been awfully poor for a while now and it may only take one bad swing for his fragile confidence to take another hit around here.
The last man to reach this big tie for third was Englishman Oliver Fisher and the price tag of 20/1 is indicative of the fact that he is yet to add to his 2011 win in the low key Czech Open, although he was second in this event in 2018 so should have some positive memories. The first player on the circuit to shoot 59, it's never surprising when he's among the low scorers of the day - but four rounds is another matter.
Instead of looking at those at the very top - each of whom has a question to answer - I will put up three each-way recommendations on players who are currently tied for eighth and just three shots off the lead.
DARREN FICHARDT obviously has history in Qatar having won this event way back in 2003. He has been in good form in his homeland this year, recording a win and back-to-back sixth-place finishes, so his game is in good order.
Fichardt has only made three bogeys, all on par-threes, and looks nicely placed to make a run from off the radar. He plays with JACK SENIOR and BENJAMIN POKE on Saturday, and my hope is they can feed off each other and make forward moves.
Senior has already done enough to secure his playing rights for next year and with that goal achieved I can see him kick on and maybe get his first European Tour win this year. He managed a fourth in the South African Open in January and I can easily see him replicating that feat over the weekend.
A former winner of the Lytham Trophy, he's taken a while to reach his potential but the ability is there and he's got some experience in the mix now. Both wins on the Challenge Tour came in the UK and for all that the course has changed, success in Qatar has often relied on the same skills which work in cool, breezy conditions closer to home.
Finally a name many will not be familiar with as Poke looks to make his breakthrough having impressed at Qualifying School, where he won by six.
He could well be inspired by the achievements of his fellow countrymen, the Hjogaard twins, and that performance in Spain last year was seriously impressive. Although a big price this week, he has started to look more comfortable with back-to-back cuts made following a slow start.
Poke, who wears red shoes in honour of his homeland, is the sort of player who can be underestimated and the bunched nature of this leaderboard makes for a nice platform from which to launch a first genuine title bid at this level.
Posted at 1605 GMT on 06/03/20
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