European Tour: Celtic Classic betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Alexander Bjork at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Andrew Johnston at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 60/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

For the first time since its resumption last month, the European Tour heads to a golf course we've seen several times over the last decade. At Close House, there was just one previous renewal of the British Masters to go on; Forest of Arden and Hanbury Manor were returning to the schedule for the first time in 20 years, give or take. Celtic Manor's 2010 Course, home of that year's Ryder Cup, is accompanied by a book of what ought to be worthwhile form.

It's still a little more dated than we'd like, but having been second, fourth and first in his three starts at the course, Joost Luiten's credentials are second to none. The trouble is, he jets in from San Francisco and that is a significant handicap, for all that he might find it easier to catch up on sleep in the hotel around which Celtic Manor's three courses run. Perhaps the Dutchman would've been best advised to skip the PGA Championship, where he played perfectly well, and it may scupper his prospects of winning here.

Andy Sullivan's seven-shot romp in the English Championship probably ought to entitle him to favouritism, and he did well to finish 17th here in 2014, defying a bad start. We saw all of his class on display in Hertfordshire, plus a little fortune during Saturday's decisive round, and if he's in the same form he'll be hard to beat. Indeed were this set to be another shootout he'd be worth backing again, but there's potential here for the toughest test of the summer to date and that should be at the forefront of calculations.

When the Wales Open was played here, from 2008 to 2014, scoring was generally tough. The exception was in 2008, when Scott Strange somehow reached 22-under, but 14-under was good enough for third and only 20 men got to 10-under. Since, it has been a grind: the mean average winning score is 10-under, with four of the subsequent six renewals of the event won in single-digits.

It's possible and indeed probable that Celtic Manor isn't quite so demanding this time, a combination of a hot summer and limited time to prepare meaning rough will potentially be patchy or even sparse. Still, the 2010 Course is 300 yards longer than Hanbury Manor, 500 longer than Close House, and plays to a shot less than Forest of Arden. With water in play on nine holes, a tough, five-strong collection of par-threes, and two of the par-fives able to stretch beyond 600 yards, birdies should be much harder to come by.

All of that points to a big performance from RICHIE RAMSAY, who led the field in bogey avoidance last week and is first among this lot for the season, trailing only the high-class Louis Oosthuizen.

This former winner of the US Amateur Championship is plainly best suited by an emphasis on avoiding disaster rather than the demand for eagles brought about by last week's course, and his chances improve markedly should the winning score be in the teens rather than the twenties.

Ramsay's first win came in 13-under, his last in 10-under, and he was clear when reaching 16-under in Switzerland, so anything but a shootout and he becomes of significantly greater interest.

He just couldn't keep up after a bright start to the English Championship, but sounded very pleased with the overall state of his game.

"I'm moving in the right direction," he told The Scotsman after rounds of 66 and 68, the latter bogey-free, to sit 23rd at halfway. "It's just fine tuning it and getting match fit, if you want.

"My swing feels really good. I'm in a really good position and I've just got to keep doing the same things as I feel there is a really low number in there.

"If I can get in the mix on the back nine Sunday, that's where the pressure comes and I enjoy things. The goal is to progress to that stage and, if the door is ajar, you've got to go for the win."

Finishing 34th, Ramsay continued the trend of the previous two events where he'd scored solidly and made few mistakes, only to find prolific birdie- and eagle-makers impossible to keep up with. I really don't think that will be the case at a course where champions Graeme McDowell, Thongchai Jaidee, Alex Noren and even Luiten might be described as Ramsay-like, particularly the first two.

That list also points towards similarities with Le Golf National, where McDowell, Jaidee and Noren are also champions. Given the 2010 at Celtic Manor has only been used seven times on the European Tour, such a crossover is striking and it will make sense to anyone who has visited both venues. This is a course purpose-built for the Ryder Cup, its banked, stadium-like nature ideal for spectators. Le Golf National wasn't designed with the Ryder Cup in mind, but its characteristics are near identical, and it is similarly tough.

Ramsay was fifth in the Open de France last year, and when you add that to plenty of strong form in the UK, he becomes interesting. The icing on the cake is the fact he led at halfway here in 2009, his rookie season, an eventual share of 10th his first top-10 finish on the European Tour.

Having signed off with a round of 66 on his last visit in 2014, he'll relish a return to Celtic Manor and if pre-tournament rain makes things even more of a slog, that's just fine. The Scotsman is a strong fancy.

That link with Le Golf National is so logical and compelling that I want to get more out of it, with ALEX BJORK and THORBJORN OLESEN next on the list.

Bjork makes his debut here, but finishes of third and eighth in Paris offer encouragement that he'll take to it, and he does tend to play well in the UK. Indeed third place at Forest of Arden in his last start made it two top-threes and seven cuts made in eight starts in England, and he could make his first appearance in Wales a winning one.

Scandinavians have an excellent record here and while they won't get the cool, breezy conditions which help explain why that's the case, Bjork's improving ball-striking and sharp short-game look ideal qualities. The main concern, and that which made 2019 a difficult year, has been his driving - but that was very much improved in the Hero Open and he may have found the missing piece of the jigsaw.

As for Olesen, it's been a fairly low-key reintroduction to the European Tour after his suspension was lifted, which is probably no bad thing.

The Dane will have been pleased to get five good rounds under his belt, Friday at Close House his only real disappointment so far, and it was highly encouraging to see him lead the field in greens hit at Hanbury Manor.

It's fair to say that before he was suspended pending the outcome of a very serious prosecution, Olesen would've been favourite in a field such as this, having played in the 2018 Ryder Cup and contended in the World Golf Championship which was his final start before an enforced absence of almost a year.

Many will have been waiting for signs of encouragement and after a pipe-opener in the Danish PGA, where he finished very strongly, followed by two events in England, he should be getting sharp again ahead of a return to Celtic Manor.

Only the putter cost him last week as he finished 34th, ranking eighth in strokes-gained approach and ninth tee-to-green, and this Rolex Series winner is a class above most in the field. Tougher conditions hold no fears and he's made three cuts in four here, all when still getting to the levels he achieved in later years.

Olesen has also gone close to winning at Le Golf National, as well as a dominant singles display in the Ryder Cup there, and is worth chancing.

Back at the head of the market, Thomas Pieters is the class act and perhaps fatherhood will be the making of him. The Belgian has gone close under very difficult conditions and is no flat-track bully, but for all he could return to the course with the attitude which could yet make him truly world-class, he does have to combat rust having been absent since the spring.

We saw how that affected a sloppy Gavin Green last week and the Malaysian could build on his own comeback, but I'm far from convinced this is a course which can be attacked in the way he, Pieters and the other aggressive young players here would like. That list of champions says a little experience and a willingness to grind is preferred and that shapes my staking plan.

As such, ANDREW JOHNSTON is taken to build on an improved display last week where again, he was among those who showed promise despite easier conditions than would've been ideal.

With his sole European Tour win coming at Valderrama in one-over par and a play-off defeat in the Indian Open in 11-under, Beef is clearly at his best when pars count for something. That's because he's a fine ball-striker who makes so few mistakes from tee-to-green, but can be caught out by a cold putter from time to time.

His form at Le Golf National reads 30-23-WD and is therefore encouraging, and he has a couple of top-10 finishes at Wentworth, a couple more in the Scottish Open, and another in the Open Championship, so playing in the UK when conditions are tricky looks the right combination.

Crucially, he was back playing well and enjoying life on the course last week and put that down to a return to the boxing gym, saying it's "so good for my head" and that he tried to "take it straight out of the boxing ring, onto the golf course."

For a couple of rounds that worked wonders before he was not unsurprisingly left behind by those who are a little more streaky. Here at Celtic Manor, where he made the cut in 2012 despite being 443rd in the world and in awful form, he should find that his strengths are complemented rather than undermined by the course.

At bigger prices, Louis de Jager has a game similar to that of Bjork and has played well the last fortnight. Though not the most flashy Sunshine Tour player, he was once the best amateur in South Africa, he's won plenty there including in two-under, and he ought to continue to play well.

Romain Wattel has an excellent record here and reemerged with a promising performance last week, but this one-time star in the making has stalled since winning the KLM Open and not even quotes of 150/1 are enough to tempt me in, for all that this does suit.

And then there's Andrea Pavan, who looks a massive price on the strength of his top-10 finish at the course, and European Tour wins in both 2018 and 2019. The trouble with Pavan, who hit his irons well last week and was back putting as he can, is that he's a terrible driver. I can't quite shake the belief it'll find him in deep trouble at some stage and he's last off the list for that reason.

Instead I'll return to the front end of the betting which is where each of the first three winners of the 'UK Swing' have been found. The best options on this occasion look to be Chris Paisley, Ryan Fox and JORDAN SMITH, and it's the last-named who is preferred.

As a big-hitter with loads of talent, you might think Smith would be well-served by shootouts, but I'm not so sure. He's one of the very best ball-strikers around and can struggle on the greens, so the positives of the last few weeks can be upgraded now we head to a more serious tee-to-green test.

Smith ranks fifth among this field in par-three scoring this year, a potentially decent pointer given that Celtic Manor has five of them, and his bogey-avoidance rankings have been strong ever since he landed at this level.

He's played well on all three visits to Le Golf National, and both his 13-under win in Germany and close call at Walton Heath further underline that he's probably not been ideally suited by the easy courses we've seen over the last three weeks.

Just how difficult Celtic Manor is may determine how close he goes, a comment which could well apply to all five selections, but this talented Englishman has the tools to take down the four par-fives and driveable 15th on his way to a second victory on the European Tour.

Posted at 1250 BST on 11/08/20

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