Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Travelers Championship
Golf expert Ben Coley has six selections for the Travelers Championship, headlined by Abraham Ancer.
Golf betting tips: Travelers Championship
2pts e.w. Abraham Ancer at 30/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 55/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Francesco Molinari at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kevin Na at 80/1 (Betfred, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Whether by design or accident, it's often struck me that post-major tournaments offer a stark contrast from what has happened a week before. Some of that is inherent, and the fact that breathing out is the best way to relieve stress. But the specific nature of the courses involved is no less significant, and while in April that means Augusta to Harbour Town, here in June, this year at least, it means Torrey Pines to TPC River Highlands.
Though it was less bomb-and-gouge than some of us had expected, the US Open was played on an extremely long course, over by the sea in California. River Highlands, at 6,841 yards, is almost a kilometre shorter, inland, and lined by a far greater density of trees. If Torrey Pines is brutal, this is classical; a Pete Dye design which encourages players to pull out just about every club in the bag. As TPC layouts go, it's one of my favourites.
The players like it, too. Last year's field was world-class because golf had only just come out of its Covid bunker, but all of the sport's best have been here at one time or another in recent years. Among them, Jordan Spieth won dramatically as a stepping stone towards the Open Championship, Dustin Johnson defied a big price and form concerns as he rode a hot putter to victory, and Bubba Watson is a three-time champion.
As ever, there's only so much that particular trio can tell us about the challenge, because they're all brilliant. Bubba's method is to try to turn most of the turning par-fours which make up the core challenge into a drive and a wedge, whereas Johnson was happy to scale back off the tee. In that respect this is quite different to Riviera, but form ties between the two are strong nonetheless, and I do like the fact that both encourage shot-shaping.
The other course I would look to is Copperhead, home of the Valspar Championship. Kevin Streelman has won both there and here, Paul Casey might as well have, and River Highlands specialist Ryan Moore always used to be a factor in the Travelers, too. Along with other courses designed by Dye, such as Sawgrass, Harbour Town and PGA West, these look good form guides at a venue which offers something for everyone, but typically boils down to a test of precision with approach shots.
That suits ABRAHAM ANCER down to the ground and with all those ahead of him in the betting having questions to, ahem, answer, he looks worth a bet at a course he likes.
Ancer was 11th here last year, hindered perhaps by a slightly slow start under particularly easy conditions. That came just days after he'd been mugged by Webb Simpson at Harbour Town, one of those other Dye courses, and underlined the impression he'd made with rounds of 64 and 63 in 2019.
Throughout these latest two visits, the Mexican has gained strokes through the bag and perhaps the small, poa annua greens are more to his liking than those at Torrey Pines, where he's struggled before in the Farmers and did so again in last week's US Open.
One way or another, Torrey Pines really isn't the right course, yet Ancer's iron play remained excellent and it's that which he'll need to lean on if he's to win his first PGA Tour title. As recently as last month he's been the standout ball-striker in a tournament only to lose to Rory McIlroy and a brilliant putting week, and there's no doubt in my mind he can count himself a little unfortunate to still be classed as a maiden.
At some stage the buck will have to stop with him, but this strikes me as a fine opportunity for one of the most precise players on the PGA Tour. Ancer ranks sixth in fairways and 11th in greens and while these statistical categories are old hat now, they have always been a good guide to the Travelers, and there's no reason that can't remain the case.
Given his form at The Heritage, Sawgrass and in the American Express, Ancer is something of a Pete Dye specialist and while back-to-back missed cuts aren't ideal, both came on monster courses and with excuses. There are none here, and I expect him to play well.
Bryson DeChambeau threatened to drive the 17th hole in last year's renewal and might this time have a crack at it, given how successful he was at Bay Hill and the financial incentive of being a social media star. That said he's otherwise far from suited by this challenge and his confidence must've taken a knock on Sunday.
With Johnson having relied on his putter more than I expected en route to victory 12 months ago, and plainly not at his best now, 12/1 looks short. Taking 16/1 about Casey holds limited appeal, for all the case is obvious, Brooks Koepka's form remains patchy and he too isn't best served by this course, so perhaps Patrick Reed and Patrick Cantlay are the pick of the market leaders.
Cantlay is a definite Dye specialist while Reed says the reason he's played in every renewal since 2012 is that he loves everything about the event. His form remains solid, too, and there's a strong argument that he's always a little underestimated by the market. Of the two, he would be preferred.
Dye form counts for plenty
However I'm drawn to SI WOO KIM and RUSSELL HENLEY at bigger prices.
I made the mistake of leaving Kim out of the staking plan for the AmEx, where he beat Cantlay earlier this year, and am keen to avoid doing the same again. The case for him there was similar, too: for whatever reason he is a better player on Dye courses, evidenced by his victory there and at The PLAYERS, plus a play-off defeat at Harbour Town.
Back in January, Kim had dropped a decent hint with a strong tee-to-green performance at the Sony Open (+5.9 strokes gained) and that's exactly what he's done over his last two starts, gaining 5.9 and 5.7 strokes from tee-to-green across the Memorial Tournament and the US Open.
In the former, Kim bagged his best finish at a course he's now played six times, whereas at the US Open he'll have been frustrated to putt poorly and languish in mid-division, given that his driving and approach work were both very solid.
He will need to step up again, but there's every chance that can happen at River Highlands, where although yet to finish in the top 10, he's made three cuts in four, and ranked first, fourth and 14th in strokes-gained tee-to-green across them.
Again, that's similar to his record in the AmEx, and a half-decent putting week might be enough for him to bag a fourth PGA Tour win before his 26th birthday on Monday.
As for Henley, he will have to overcome the disappointment of the US Open, where he led after rounds one, two and three, only to fall to 13th. For a gritty competitor who hasn't been able to convert promising play into silverware over the last year and a half, it won't necessarily be easy.
However, a high US Open finish has often been a good pointer towards slightly surprising winners of this, such as Freddie Jacobson (T14), Russell Knox (T22) and Chez Reavie (T3), so if Henley is able to draw positives from a weekend in the mix, he can be a big factor.
Encouragingly, his putting has shown better signs lately and was enough to rank 26th in that department last week, and his iron play remains excellent. He's led the field three times over the last 18 months, two of those at courses he loves, and ranked third at Torrey Pines on the back of a quiet month or so.
Here at River Highlands, he ranked second last summer in a stronger field, eighth in 2018 on his way to sixth place, and 13th on debut when finishing 11th, so it's a question of whether he can continue to plot his way around here while finding something workable on the greens, by which I mean a continuation of last week.
Only Casey ranks ahead of him in strokes-gained approach, with Ancer one of a small group who are higher up in greens hit, and as a horses-for-courses player whose wins have been (in some way) easy to telegraph, Henley looks to hold excellent claims providing his mind is on the job.
Italian buoyed by US Open week?
Admittedly, those who've won this after a good US Open were probably less frustrated than Henley and Kim might be, and more buoyed by what they saw. That even applied to Spieth, who left Erin Hills believing he was on the right path and went on to win his next two starts, so finding someone with reasons to be cheerful would be ideal.
Brian Harman continues to play well and is one such option, while Joaquin Niemann at least ended a poor run and will have been pleased to fight back after an opening 75. Those two and Guido Migliozzi, the cocksure Italian who ended up in a tie for fourth, fit the profile of a Jacobson or a Knox as does Streelman, who looks an obvious contender given how well he's playing and how much he enjoys this course.
However I'm drawn to FRANCESCO MOLINARI, who has obvious upside at 60/1 given his credentials as a world-class major winner at his best, and who played really nicely for three of the four rounds.
I had been a little concerned that we'd hardly seen him since the spring, but Molinari confirmed that he's just had a couple of fitness issues which kept him off the course and that he was enjoying feeling healthy again. To return in a tournament like the US Open and finish 13th was an excellent effort (a comment which also applies to Matt Wolff in 15th) and he had further reason to be cheerful, as he explained after a good start.
"Pretty much every part of the body that you can name, from February onwards it seemed to be a bit of a struggle to get going really," he told reporters on Thursday. "But the last one was my back at the PGA. Obviously I was there, played two practice rounds but then wasn't able to play on Thursday. It's nice to be back and feeling good."
Asked what it was like to have Edoardo Molinari sharing a hotel room with him, having not seen his big brother since 2019, Molinari junior added: "We text and we talk pretty often, but obviously it's not the same, especially after such a long time. It's definitely the first time that we've been apart for so long, so nice to see him."
Molinari now needs to get to work if he's to sneak into the Ryder Cup picture, which isn't totally out of the question given his achievements in 2019. To do so requires kicking on from Torrey Pines, and having been on the fringes of contention on his first two visits here, back in 2015 and 2016 and therefore before he became a real star, the Travelers is a good place to start.
Across three visits in total he's ranked sixth, 20th and second in greens, and his strokes-gained ball-striking stats in 2019 were good enough to have had him fighting for a place behind Reavie had his short-game behaved.
Solid through the bag in the US Open, he should find River Highlands far more suitable and is worth siding with.
At bigger prices watch out for in-form Monday qualifier Seamus Power, who could be one to threaten the first-round lead. I also considered Luke Donald (back to form lately, suited by this) and Sung Kang (form better than it may appear, loves Riviera and some strong hints here) at as big as 500/1 in places, with Donald in particular having shown the ball-striking improvements needed to potentially go well.
More sensibly, Hank Lebioda's approach play and performance at the Valspar caught the eye along with C.T. Pan's general improvement and fondness for a sub-7,000 yard course, while Reavie is no forlorn hope following a better fortnight. Significantly, his ball-striking seems to have clicked, and that will be key.
The last name off the shortlist however is Talor Gooch, who has ranked 10th in strokes-gained approach on each of his last two starts, and has played well all season. Poa annua greens shouldn't be an issue given his strong form in California, he is really effective at Riviera, and I think this place suits more than a poor course record (when playing poorly) would imply.
Fowler fancied to continue his revival
All that said, the proven winning form of RICKIE FOWLER and KEVIN NA is preferred this time.
Fowler has been much better lately, finishing eighth and 11th on his last two starts to arrest the slide and get back inside the world's top 100. He'll look to what Spieth has done for encouragement that he can keep moving and get back to where he belongs, and so he should: I appreciate he's the punchline for many, seemingly because he's nice, but Fowler is also a world-class talent who shouldn't be underestimated.
As far back as the Texas Open, where he climbed from 110th after round one to a top-20 finish, Fowler has shown positive signs and as well as being in a good place having announced that his wife is pregnant, I'm certain watching a US Open at Torrey Pines will have motivated him. It was there in 2008 that Fowler first appeared as a fresh-faced Californian kid and missing that major, at that course, will have been difficult.
This improved form we've seen might in some way be connected to having to sit and watch the Masters, and now he's able to go and get back to business in an event which should suit a former winner of The PLAYERS. We have some evidence of that, too, as Fowler was 13th on his last two starts here, shooting a final-round 64 the last time he played the course.
That was back in 2013, but his iron play and putting look to be back on track and with no pressure to hit driver upon driver, suddenly he looks capable of challenging. As with Molinari, there's scope for the price to look very generous if things go to plan on Thursday.
Finally, KEVIN NA is usually one to side with when he's in rope-a-dope mode and that might be the case after a tame missed cut on a golf course which is far too long for him in the US Open.
Before that, Na ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach at Colonial and while he's hardly been setting the world alight, there's been enough to like about his game for all he's without a top-10 finish since winning the Sony Open in January.
Crucially, he's back on another short course which he likes, and he has those Valspar and Riviera connections having been second and 10th at the former, and gone close on three occasions at the latter. The fact he played quite well in both earlier this year, as well as at Colonial and in the Sony Open, underlines that it's often all about the course with Na, and he has two top-10 finishes including fifth place last summer at this one.
A changed man over the last few years, Na is now a five-time PGA Tour champion, but what's particularly interesting about his trophy collection is that not one of them came when he had played well the week before. At the Sony, he'd just finished 38th of 42 in the Tournament of Champions, while he won at Colonial following a missed cut in the US PGA. His second Shriners win also came after a missed cut, just as his first had, and he'd been 64th in the Quicken Loans National before capturing the Greenbrier.
All of these wins are on courses Na really likes, and if he hadn't missed the cut the week before, he'd finished just about last of those who made it. Given how well he struck his irons in the last regular PGA Tour event, and how low my expectations would've been at Torrey Pines anyway (course form now MC-72-45-MC-MC-MC-MC), this looks like it could be exactly the sort of tournament he wins.
Posted at 1200 BST on 22/06/21
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