Ben Coley's US PGA betting tips: Preview and best bets for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill
Golf expert Ben Coley previews the second men's major of the season and fancies two close friends to contend for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill.
- Our golf expert has selected two of the last six PGA Championship winners at odds of 50/1 and 16/1, while his record for 2023 includes winners at 50/1, 100/1 and 22/1. Click here for details of all Ben's selections.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship
3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 20/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
3pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 80/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 90/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 100/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 275/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
What the PGA Championship may lack in prestige, relative that is to its three fellow men's major championships, it has more than made up for in drama in recent years.
While Mito Pereira's implosion at the 18th hole may have been matched by the US Open and even exceeded by the Open, it was nevertheless a must-see finish. The Masters will always have those because it is the Masters, but the last four champions have known they were champions when teeing off on 18.
This tournament, one which can legitimately claim to provide the strongest field among the four, gave us Phil Mickelson in 2021, Collin Morikawa in 2020, and an almost-collapse from Brooks Koepka in 2019. Bellerive before that involved Tiger Woods and it was only late in the 2017 renewal that Justin Thomas could begin to relax as an international cast produced a thrilling Sunday.
"I f****d up," Pereira infamously whispered to his caddie after finding water with his final tee shot a year ago, a comment picked up by the Netflix microphones. "On the last hole, man." Some will never consider the PGA to be on a par with the Masters, the US Open and the Open, but Southern Hills gave us a finish for the ages just as Kiawah Island had done before that.
A lot has changed in 10 years...
As for what Oak Hill provides over the coming days, just one thing seems certain: something very different to when Jason Dufner beat Jim Furyk a decade ago, with Henrik Stenson third. Back then, the course had become a suffocating test of accuracy, thick rough and thicker trees making small targets hard to find. In contrast to what we've seen recently, it wasn't much of a spectacle.
Now, thanks to Andrew Green's 'sympathetic restoration' of a Donald Ross classic, we should have a course fit for the modern game it welcomes back. It is longer at 7,394 yards and will play longer still; more than 600 of the thousands of trees have been removed; bunkers and green surrounds have been given both nuance and bite.
Just as significant may be the time of year. May in New York is very different to August in New York, with temperatures low and rough made thick by a long winter and wet spring. It's not so long ago that snow seeped into this turf and the course is verdant, its rough not perhaps as long as you'd find at a US Open, but every bit as thick.
If that reminds you of the first PGA Championship following the change in the calendar, it does me, too. Bethpage Black was listed as a 7,400-yard par 70, almost identical to this one. It was cold and the course played extremely long, something Justin Rose had cottoned onto soon after arriving. Rose felt maybe 30 players could win; in the end we were served a battle between Koepka and Dustin Johnson, the two best drivers in the field that week.
Driver is the club I believe will take on greater importance versus Southern Hills, where rough was less of a factor, and the course still had bounce in the Tulsa heat. There, some balance was required and Justin Thomas did everything quite well, but among the three players who could've won the tournament, there was not what you'd call an outstanding driving display.
Certainly, both Thomas and runner-up Will Zalatoris got away with missing a huge number of fairways, just as Mickelson had, just as Koepka had. The fact that both he and Johnson ranked 44th in accuracy but dominated the strokes-gained off-the-tee stats says much about what set-ups like this one can do to any notion of equality.
The rough here at Oak Hill will favour the longer hitters more than it does the accurate ones, but those who spray the ball everywhere seem sure to struggle. Recovery shots are still possible according to PGA championships officer Kerry Haigh, more so than was the case in 2013, yet there are too many mid-to-long irons awaiting these players to believe anyone can execute them effectively if they're not on or close to the fairway.
Take two against big three
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy head the betting, as they may for years to come, and if McIlroy can warm up his putter then he might look an opportunity missed at 12/1. You may by now have read that he is an Oak Hill member and while far from a regular visitor, he has seen more of the course than almost anyone in this field, his wife hailing from nearby in Rochester.
Modest form figures since he played some of the best golf in the Match Play mean we're being offered four points bigger than for his latest Masters disappointment, yet his game is a very good fit. McIlroy's best driving is better than anyone else's here, his approach play from distance has always been a strength, and he's so much better than many give him credit for from bunkers, which will test everyone.
Leaving him out isn't easy but there have to be concerns over his approach play and putting and they're just not accounted for in the odds. Last April he was an 18/1 chance at Augusta, his form at the time good. Somehow it feels as though the Rahm-Scheffler axis has had the opposite effect to that which it should've: McIlroy is pinned to them as part of a big three despite his own form in 2023 being a grade below theirs.
I hope he rides the wave of support to a fifth major but better value comes in the form of PATRICK CANTLAY, who right now might be the best driver of the ball in golf.
Over his last six measured starts dating back to Riviera in February, Cantlay has ranked second, third, first, 12th, third and seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee, climbing to second among this field for the season as a whole.
He's also second in total driving and this rather more old-fashioned statistic at least helps to explain what makes him so effective: Cantlay is both long and straight, a Scheffler-like blend which seems perfect for Oak Hill, where fairways have always been and will remain very difficult to hit.
Throughout this period his approach play had also been excellent until a dip at Quail Hollow, but that's a course Cantlay wouldn't have visited had it not been a designated event. In finishing 21st, not only did he improve upon his two previous starts there, but he solidified a timely return to form with the putter.
That club helped lift Cantlay to the FedEx Cup in 2021 but stopped him winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational or the Genesis, a two-week run over which nobody was better from tee-to-green. Now, it has come back around, and if anything there could be a little bit more in the locker given how much better he's been on bentgrass throughout his career.
Cantlay's six solo victories have all come on this type of grass (excluding East Lake, where he didn't in fact shoot the best score), four of them in northeastern states. He seems particularly comfortable in this part of the US and his best major championship so far came at the aforementioned Bethpage, when he finished in a share of third place.
Many would argue that it's his overall record in majors which leaves questions unanswered, but don't forget he's hit the front late on in the Masters and, more recently, was right there threatening in the Open last July, before again threatening in the Masters last month. Three top-15s in a row and a taste of genuine weekend pressure is reminiscent of so many major winners of the past, including Thomas when he captured this two months after leading the US Open.
Improved with his long-irons, the other factor I would note is that Cantlay is a really good scrambler and particularly from long distance, which is to say that he pitches the ball really well. That seems sure to be something players need to call upon as PGA officials utilise these enlarged greens for some devilish pins.
Given that he's been a top-25% bunker player throughout the last five seasons I doubt his low ranking this time tells us much and this all-rounder, who hits it high and is plenty long enough, looks a prime candidate to become the 10th first-time major champion in the last 15 editions of the US PGA.
That he has a new caddie on the bag, Joe LaCava, might be the missing piece of the puzzle in the same way Ted Scott was for Scheffler.
If Cantlay isn't celebrating a deserved breakthrough on Sunday then it could well be his closest friend on the circuit, XANDER SCHAUFFELE, who is similar in virtually every way.
Both these quiet, meticulous characters have rounded games which begin with excellent driving, seldom missing big. Schauffele is slightly less reliable in this department but makes up for it with his elite approach play, which has improved throughout his career and now sees him ranked fifth on the PGA Tour.
His majors record is arguably superior and includes 16th place at Bethpage, probably the best recent PGA pointer, along with fifth at Winged Foot, another New York major where thick rough and hard-to-hit fairways saw Bryson DeChambeau blast his way to victory. He's been close in the Masters and the Open, too.
What I like most about Schauffele, however, is that this comes at exactly the right time. In contrast to a year ago, he carried Cantlay at the Zurich Classic this time, while his last three individual starts have seen him rank fourth, first and fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, his driver getting better from one to the next.
Compare this to April and his form leading into Augusta, and it's clear he's turned a corner. Schauffele had gone 33-39-19 from Riviera to the Match Play, where he exited at the quarter-final stage, which means that 10th place at Augusta was pound-for-pound his best performance of the season.
He's built on that since and his performance at Quail Hollow, while disappointing in some respects given that he traded as a short-priced favourite, was a massive improvement on three previous starts there. As he alluded to when speaking to the media it's just not a course he particularly likes yet so strong are all departments of his game right now that he contended anyway.
I do have nagging doubts as to how he'd deal with hitting the front, because of the game's very elite he can look the weakest under the gun, but the first task is to find someone who can play their way into that situation. On that score, there may not be anyone more likely outside of Rahm than Schauffele, so he rates a confident each-way bet.
Sungjae Im's brilliant driving earned him antepost interest at 40/1 but I can't say I was pleased to see him winning in Korea on Sunday, admirable though his commitment to his home circuit is. Flying into New York from the other side of the world simply can't be the best way to prepare and he's omitted from calculations as a result.
That left me with Collin Morikawa and Max Homa from those towards the head of the market and I have warmed to the latter's chances in particular.
Homa, like my first two selections, is a really good bentgrass putter who has stacks of form on long, difficult, classical courses, often in cool temperates such as when capturing the Farmers Insurance Open title at Torrey Pines. Should it rain as is forecast for the weekend, his second Wells Fargo title at TPC Potomac bodes similarly well.
With further wins at Riviera and Quail Hollow to his name, plus a standout performance at the latter course in the Presidents Cup, I have to believe he's capable of contending for majors even if he's yet to do it. Surely by now, he believes it too and this strikes me as an ideal course for one so solid off the tee.
There's some encouragement from his more recent displays as he started well in the US Open a month after finishing a solid 13th at the PGA, and three of his five victories have followed a top-10 finish – which is exactly what he produced at Quail Hollow last time.
My worry is that he's just so comfortable there and may not have actually turned a corner, so I'll be taking more of a round-by-round approach. It's a little obvious to say so, but perhaps he'll show a little bit more in this tournament in order to be fully prepared for a home-state major in a month's time.
Niemann could avenge Pereira heartache
At bigger prices, Rickie Fowler had been been very much on the radar and in some ways, Jason Day's victory in the Byron Nelson helped add to the case. Then again perhaps Fowler, who is a top-15 player on 2023 form, will do as Day has done and regain that winning feeling in something a good deal less competitive and important than this.
Preference is for the superior driving game of JOAQUIN NIEMANN, who brings us to that LIV-shaped elephant in the room.
As I've written elsewhere, my view is that the Masters told us next to nothing about the breakaway circuit and how its players can be expected to fare in majors. We simply don't know the long-term impact and as far as the short-term goes, guess what? Some exceptional golfers are still capable of playing exceptional golf.
Despite this and the Bethpage comparison already drawn, I find Brooks Koepka a laughably short price at 18/1, while Dustin Johnson's play-off win doesn't quite justify prices of 25s. Maybe Johnson's improvement makes sense given that he enjoyed his off-season, but I need a little more convincing before putting him back on a par with someone like Tony Finau, Cantlay, Schauffele and even Homa.
Niemann however is off the radar at 80/1, despite seemingly playing well all year including when returning to this kind of company and finishing 16th in the Masters. There, the Chilean ranked fifth in strokes-gained off the tee only to struggle with his approaches, yet there are reasonable indications that he's hitting his irons better now including when eighth last week.
Yes, we'd know more if LIV Golf spent some of its riches on proper data, but what we do know is that Niemann's form in non-LIV events since the Open last summer reads 13-8-9-10-5-16 and that's enough for me to lean into the idea that this course and these conditions will be ideal.
A prodigiously long hitter, Niemann was 23rd at Winged Foot and his wider record in northeastern states where bentgrass is prevalent is very strong: third and sixth in Ohio, second in Boston and Detroit, eighth in Delaware, fifth in Connecticut, and his first victory at Old White TPC in West Virginia.
That runner-up finish in Detroit came at a Ross-designed course but key for me is that so many of his spike putting weeks have come on surfaces similar to these. He was eighth in putting at the Masters, too, and if the iron play that saw him dance to victory at Riviera is back then he's every inch a potential PGA champion at a big price, whether motivated by Pereira's near-miss last year or not.
Open champion primed for the grind
Adam Scott had also been on the shortlist prior to last week but he's now 66/1 from 100s without telling us much. It feels like a trap we ought to avoid falling into, as one trusted colleague helped point out. Besides, his successive top-10s have come about largely because of the putter and I wouldn't want to be relying on that club come the weekend.
It's certainly strange to me to see more recent major winner SHANE LOWRY now dangled at a bigger price and, a regular backer of his including when sent off similar odds at Portrush, I'll take the bait.
Lowry owes us nothing, not yet anyway, after his Open heroics and I think he's backed it up pretty well, adding another big title to his collection at Wentworth and, in major terms, eight top-25s in 12 subsequent appearances.
Just last month he putted poorly yet finished 16th in the Masters having been around the places all week, a tournament he contended for the previous spring, and the putter is the only reason he missed the cut in last year's US Open as well as denying him a top-10 finish at St Andrews in July.
In terms of this event, he was fourth under admittedly favourable conditions at Kiawah Island when the best driver in the field but again putting poorly and that club may ultimately determine how high up the leaderboard he finishes once more. Clearly, it's been a problem this season and particularly so from close range.
The rest of his game is in far better nick than prices suggest, as evidenced not only by the Masters or the golf he played over the final three rounds at Sawgrass, but by his strong strokes-gained ball-striking numbers even throughout a post-Augusta run of 67-MC.
Like McIlroy that leaves him with a question to answer but, again like McIlroy, he's a fabulous long-iron player. It's partly why he also boasts plenty of form on long courses, winning at Firestone and finishing eighth at Bethpage just prior to his Open win.
Lowry's touch and creativity around the green and from bunkers is another positive along with his willingness to grind, particularly if and when the weather turns as it may well do. The idea that golfers from the UK and Ireland are better in the wind and rain is often thrown around without much thought, but in his case it's absolutely true with his two finest moments coming in waterproofs.
A final point is that not only is his Quail Hollow record really poor, excusing his narrow missed cut a fortnight ago, but he's contended right after a weekend off in some massive events down the years. Part of the reason for that is, just like his mentor Padraig Harrington, he's someone who improves for the game's greatest challenges.
Oak Hill will be really tough and it'll require almost every shot. That alone makes Lowry of interest and, with his long-game absolutely in the sort of place we need it to be, prices this big allow us to roll the dice with the putter.
Long, difficult, driver-first golf was always likely to bring GARY WOODLAND into calculations and try as I might, I've been unable to leave him out at 100/1.
Woodland's long-game is without doubt back to the levels which took him to US Open glory in 2019. In fact, it might even be better and he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green last time out at the Wells Fargo.
Prior to that he'd ranked third in Mexico so you won't need a background in data science to understand that he must've putted poorly to finish 39th there and 14th at Quail Hollow, the very same position he'd filled in the Masters a few weeks earlier.
Putting has been a massive issue at times and when it's bad, it quickly strays into abysmal. Woodland lost almost two shots per day in Mexico and it's the second time he's done that in his last six starts, somehow making every cut despite these two abject displays and a couple more poor ones.
However, he ranked 19th in putting at the Masters and 11th at the Heritage, while 33rd in Houston last November would be fine were he to continue to figure among the leading ball-strikers. He gained strokes in two majors last season and finished 34th and 10th, latterly when leading off-the-tee at Brookline, another driver-heavy affair.
Woodland is a fabulous, long driver who hits it high and was eighth at Bethpage. He's threatened the places in two of his last three majors and has continued to take steps with his long-game since even the most recent of them. He's fifth in strokes-gained ball-striking over the last 24 rounds, fourth over the last 12, second over the last eight.
Ultimately then we're betting on his putter and we're getting a big price for doing so. The list of recent major winners whose biggest question mark came on the greens is very long, perhaps Cam Smith the only exception. Woodland need only produce something better than average to have every chance of hitting the frame.
Davis ready for the next step
Ordinarily I would leave it there and focus on the realistic winners in an event of this magnitude but there is one outsider I really like and it seems foolish to arbitrarily omit them, especially as there will be many readers who take their pick from the advised selections.
That man is CAMERON DAVIS, a Donald Ross winner in Detroit who both has the game for this and has shown flourishes of quality play of late.
The former Australian Open winner has two recent top-10s in designated events, first at Sawgrass and then again at Harbour Town, and while yet to make an impact in a major he's also yet to miss a cut having played in just four of them so far.
He was one of my players to follow at the start of the year because he has all the tools required to reach elite levels, and at last we're seeing that as a notable improvement off the tee has seen him rank among the best drivers around since the start of April.
His approach play and short-game are far less consistent hence a patchy profile but he was fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green two starts ago before again driving the ball well at Quail Hollow, where he missed the cut by a shot but at least showed a welcome upturn with the putter.
Davis has so far been at his most effective on bentgrass and cool, breezy conditions won't bother a player who has based himself in Chicago, all of which makes me believe he might just be this year's Pereira at prices as big as 275/1 in places and 250/1 generally.
Others of note at massive odds include Robert MacIntyre despite nagging injury doubts, while Harris English is probably entitled to a little more respect in the major which is certainly the most open and, arguably, can be considered the most exciting.
Let's hope for more of that, or else a nice, comfortable, 10-shot win for a certain someone who will have the support of his fellow Oak Hill members.
Posted at 1800 BST on 15/05/23
More PGA Championship content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.