Ben Coley's PLAYERS Championship golf betting tips: Best bets at Sawgrass
World number one Jon Rahm can get back to winning ways in The PLAYERS Championship, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship
4pts e.w. Jon Rahm at 14/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
1.5pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Si-Woo Kim at 80/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
0.5pt e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Hideki Matsuyama has withdrawn and stakes will be refunded
The PLAYERS Championship is the party to which everyone on the PGA Tour is invited, but one wonders whether those in charge aren't too displeased when it comes to who isn't here. First, Phil Mickelson's name was absent from the entry list on Friday, and then came news that Bryson DeChambeau had lost his race to be fit in time; the two disruptors will be back, but in their absence this will be all about a world-class field battling one of the sport's most notorious golf courses.
TPC Sawgrass may not always provide the kind of scoring which is so popular with viewers, the like of which we have seen over the last fortnight, but one thing it does better than most is ask questions. This is a place where almost every tee shot requires a decision, and where a famous closing stretch offers the kind of opportunities Rickie Fowler so electrifyingly took when he won here, but with the most brutal form of punishment awaiting those who misstep.
Gone are the days where those without a good excuse would skip the event, something Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood have done in the past, and this is unequivocally the fifth-most important event on the men's calendar. Personally, I like that distinction – best of the rest is a badge The PLAYERS wears well, and here endeth the column on whether or not this is the fifth major: there isn't one, so of course it isn't. But it's no worse for it.
The market is accordingly open, with three players vying for favouritism including the defending champion. Nobody in history has won this title back-to-back but that's a quirk which will not exist forever, and the strength of Justin Thomas's form, plus his obvious affection for Sawgrass, entitles him to respect. Collin Morikawa meanwhile also boasts solid credentials, though I'm struggling to see why he's so much shorter for this than he was the Genesis Invitational, where he was runner-up on his latest start.
At 10/1 in places, perhaps Morikawa has finally graduated to where he belongs in the betting, yet in the case of both he and Thomas there is a question to be answered: will their decision not to play either the Honda Classic or the Arnold Palmer Invitational leave them at a disadvantage? It's one which applies also to the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson, and it's one I've wrestled with all weekend.
History tells us that a Florida spin is hugely beneficial. Just about everyone had had one last year, owing to a new WGC which had been added to the schedule, but it was telling that Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood simply continued what they'd done at Bay Hill only for Thomas to pick their pockets. In 2019, all the key protagonists bar fifth-placed Johnson had been seen over the fortnight prior.
From 2007 to 2018, the event took place in May, virtually guaranteeing that everyone of note had played some form of east coast golf. But I've gone right back to 1989 and from then until 2006, every winner bar David Duval had played in Florida. Duval, like Johnson did with a top-five, graduated to the top of the world rankings after his PLAYES win so the outliers here were at the very top of the sport.
Rahm ready to issue reminder
Morikawa and Thomas then are good enough to defy any such handicap, and after McIlroy said he needed a day off following a brutal weekend at Bay Hill, there's a case to be made that freshness could in fact be to their advantage. However, on balance I'm inclined to give the edge to those who are battle-hardened and at 14/1, I can't get away from their co-favourite, JON RAHM.
It's indisputable that Rahm hasn't been quite at his best lately, because after a brilliant start to the year in Hawaii, only at his favourite PGA Tour stop has he threatened to win. But just as clear is the fact he continues to drive the ball exceptionally, and last week saw him produce his best strokes-gained approach numbers since August, a level of ball-striking superior to that which took him to the US Open title earlier last summer.
For reasons which aren't immediately clear, Rahm's touch both around and on the greens has deserted him, and he'll need to remedy that to win this title. There is hope, though: this is a funk which looks so obviously temporary, and it so happens that he'd been let down by his putter before this event in 2019 and 2021, only to turn things around on the greens here at Sawgrass.
Were that to happen again, he would look very clearly the man to beat, because he's been outperforming both Thomas and Morikawa with his long-game, and he's a self-confessed Pete (and Alice) Dye fan who has won at PGA West, and whose form here at Dye's masterpiece is better than at first it may appear.
On debut, Rahm was third after round one and 10th at halfway, before a horror third round. On his return, again the Spaniard sat on the heels of the leaders after two rounds, while in 2019 he led through 54 holes following a third-round 64. Sunday's 77 was in the end ugly, but Rahm still looked the man to beat before a reckless second to the 12th hole began his downfall.
A solid opening round in the abandoned 2020 edition and middle rounds of 68-67 to lie fifth entering the final round last year make for a really strong platform, similar to that which Thomas had produced before winning here, and the world number one will see this as a chance to draw a line under a frustrating start to the campaign – just as Thomas did.
Remember, it was his debut at Bay Hill and nobody got close to his ball-striking numbers, Rahm's +11.4 SG: ball-striking putting him a distance clear of Viktor Hovland's +9.2. You might reasonably ask what good it is if you're handing most of these shots back with short-game mistakes, but to me they illustrate that the player who has been clear favourite for every start this year might be ready to win just as the market is beginning to question him.
All three of the favourites deserves huge respect and splitting them isn't easy, but the one most likely to deliver looks to be Rahm, and the chance to support him at 14/1 with eight or more places is very difficult to turn down.
Given that DeChambeau-Westwood repeat of last year it would be no surprise to see something similar through Hovland and Scottie Scheffler, but while that Florida run-out should prove advantageous, perhaps being in the heat of battle under such brutally difficult conditions could take the edge off. I certainly prefer those, like Rahm, who got through some good work without feeling like they were ever really in the running.
With that in mind I thought HIDEKI MATSUYAMA's performance hinted that he could win his fourth title in less than 12 months, having added victories in Japan and Hawaii to that historic Masters triumph last April.
Matsuyama was a never-threatening 20th at Bay Hill and it was encouraging to see his iron play return to the levels of the Phoenix Open, having been a shade disappointing at Riviera. Last week he was solid off the tee and seventh with his approaches, but quiet on the greens.
That's always the risk with Matsuyama and historically he's had his share of troubles on bermuda grass, but that all changed in the Sony Open where he led the field. It is of course unlikely we receive the same gift from the Japanese star, but that effort was the culmination of steady improvements on these surfaces and I'd be hopeful he can improve on Bay Hill, not least because he has a far better record here at Sawgrass when it comes to putting.
Matsuyama certainly enjoys the tee-to-green challenge here, too, and his record in the event reminds me a little of Augusta. There, he'd often threatened and finally put things together having gathered plenty of invaluable experience, and the same could be true on his eighth start here having bagged five top-25s from seven, not to mention shot that stunning, course-record 63 only to have it expunged in 2020.
Having played the best golf in the field over the final two rounds of the 2019 edition, an 11-under weekend vaulting him from the cut-line to eighth, Matsuyama's only recent mishap came in round one last year when he played himself out of the tournament. Nevertheless, he recovered with an excellent second round to narrowly miss the cut, and since then has enjoyed the best year of his career. His game is so obviously in a better place now.
There's not much this market doesn't know but given his record here and the titles he's been winning, I'm struggling to see why Matsuyama should be behind Schauffele in the betting, and he looks a likely contender on the back of that nice, out-of-the-spotlight preparation over at Bay Hill.
'Golden Child' looks great value
Shane Lowry was unfortunate to be mugged in the Honda Classic and could make amends in style, the former WGC and Open champion more than capable of winning for the first time since Portrush. He's respected but was always going to be popular and the same goes for Matt Fitzpatrick, ninth here last year when running on empty and so much better prepared this time around.
At the prices though the eye is drawn to last year's favourite Dustin Johnson and JORDAN SPIETH and though the former has to be on everyone's shortlist at a whopping 35/1, Spieth looks even better value at 50s.
Now, it must be acknowledged that Spieth hasn't warmed-up in Florida, electing to skip the Honda and Bay Hill. He's yet to play in the former so that can't be labelled a surprise, but having been fourth in the Arnold Palmer last year, it does seem a little odd that he's taken a fortnight off since Riviera.
That may prove his undoing, but we are at least talking about a Texan who thrives on bermuda so the transition ought not to be as problematic as it could be for some, and Spieth did manage to win the Open after four weeks away in 2017. If Duval can overcome the handicap, then perhaps so can he.
His price is more to do with a couple of ho-hum efforts in Phoenix and LA respectively, but it's only three starts back that he looked set to win on a more technical set of courses in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and while his Sawgrass record has some holes in it, there's also plenty of encouragement if you dig around.
Fourth on debut when leading through 54 holes, Spieth was not the player he'd later become back then and it's therefore a little peculiar that six subsequent starts have yielded a best of 41st. However, last year he ranked sixth in strokes-gained approach and again drove the ball well, something he's always done here except when at a low ebb in 2019. It is in fact on and around the greens that he's struggled and he alluded to this after a third-round 68.
"I feel great, I've driven the ball well enough to win this golf tournament when the rest of my game is where it should be and I just haven't made anything, I simply just have not," he said. "And I've putted it this tournament well two out of 20 rounds that I've played here. I just misread every single putt.
"Today really, honestly, today should have been eight-under, no question, easily. This was the best I've played in and the best I put myself in position in a long, long time and I feel really good about that around this track."
Perhaps these struggles on the greens will continue but there must be a chance Spieth figures it out, and that a couple of putts dropping early change the way things go for him. Hopeful, speculative and even flimsy as that may sound, the point is we're talking about a brilliant bermuda putter who really shouldn't have issues and I'd be surprised if he continues to look like Keegan Bradley here for much longer.
His record at Dye courses includes a win at TPC River Highlands, second at Whistling Straights, fourth at TPC Louisiana and ninth at both Harbour Town and Crooked Stick, plus 30th at Kiawah Island last May when his long-game was good, and he's got correlating form at old-fashioned courses in the south like East Lake and Sedgefield, too.
This is a good place for him and at around twice the price he was last year, having ended a years-long winless run since and gone close at Pebble Beach, Royal St George's, Colonial and elsewhere, he's well worth the risk and then some.
Who is the best bet at a big price?
Corey Conners was among the obvious eye-catchers from last week but his price has collapsed from 100/1 to half that as a result and it's his compatriot MACKENZIE HUGHES who is rated the pick of the outsiders.
Like Conners, Hughes has just one PGA Tour win to his name and it came during the maligned end-of-year spell which marks the beginning of the new season. Put another way, though he did very well to take a five-man play-off as a rookie, it was not in anything like this kind of company.
However, Hughes has started to look very comfortable when rubbing shoulders with the elite, finishing sixth in last year's Open just a month after he'd held the 54-hole lead in the US Open, where a final-round 77 owed plenty to an unfortunate incident which saw his ball get stuck up a tree.
Also 10th in the BMW Championship dominated by Rahm and Johnson at a very difficult course in 2020, after which he played really nicely in the TOUR Championship and at a tricky Houston Open, Hughes looks best when conditions are demanding and that was again the case when second to Sungjae Im at the Honda Classic a couple of years ago.
His form so far this year isn't immediately appealing, after a fantastic end to 2021, but he's missed two cuts narrowly in events where his record is poor, and last time out gained strokes through the bag to finish mid-pack in the aforementioned Honda at PGA National.
Having been 16th at Pebble Beach, there's been plenty of good stuff in four starts and that's also true of his visits to Sawgrass, where he led after round one on debut, and then hit the ball really well when shooting middle rounds of 67 and 68 on his return.
Third at Dye's TPC River Highlands, he has a sprinkling of correlating form but it's the flashes he's shown here which really appeal. Hughes was much further down the world rankings on both occasions but now, up at 55th in the world having spent almost two years on the fringes of the elite, he looks capable of once again contending for a significant tournament against them.
Former winner capable of doubling-up
Back up the betting and Im is definitely of some appeal having got his putter rolling last week and carded two rounds of 66 here last year, but I'll end with his compatriot and certified course specialist, SI WOO KIM, who gets the vote ahead of my poison, Tommy Fleetwood.
A surprise winner here in 2017, following in the footsteps of KJ Choi, Kim has since rubber-stamped his credentials as a genuine Dye specialist, winning at PGA West in The American Express. Also second at Harbour Town, 11th at River Highlands and 20th at Crooked Stick, Kim's first win came at an old-school Sedgefield where fellow PLAYERS champions Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Davis Love have also triumphed.
This then is absolutely the sort of test he wants, something hinted at with a couple of eye-catching Augusta performances, and along with five cuts made from five visits to Sawgrass, a win in 2017 and ninth place last year, Kim shot an opening 65 to lie second behind Matsuyama before the tournament was cancelled two years ago.
A definite horses-for-courses player, Kim won this without putting well and again hit his ball to a very high standard last year, so the fact he's driven it to a high standard on all seven starts in 2022 and has shown improvements with his approaches lately suggests he could once more up his game at the course where he made his name.
Others of note include Russell Henley, who has spurned several very good chances to win lately, with Marc Leishman alongside outsiders Lucas Glover and Danny Lee on a varied shortlist, befitting the nature of this test. Sawgrass can be attacked in many ways, and is not a simple puzzle, but perhaps the answer to it is indeed simple with the world's top-ranked player ready to remind us exactly why that is.
Posted at 1825 GMT on 07/03/22
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