Rory McIlroy will be popular for the US PGA at a course he adores, but Ben Coley sees better value in two of his Ryder Cup teammates.
Antepost golf betting tips: PGA Championship
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
If you thought Rory McIlroy fever was a big part of 2024's majors story, then look at the schedule for 2025. Last year McIlroy returned to Hoylake and to Valhalla, the two sites of his last major wins a decade earlier. Next year he faces the prospect of Quail Hollow, scene of his first PGA Tour win and three more since, and then goes back to Royal Portrush.
Having ended the season with a commanding win in the DP World Tour Championship, where some notable swing tweaks yielded some quality wedge play, there's no hiding from the fact that McIlroy should have chances to end his drought in the months ahead. None looks as obvious as this one and I have to say, there's a pretty sound argument for backing him at 9/1, without that price feeling like a gift.
One interesting dynamic is that Scottie Scheffler hasn't played much at any of the major venues after Augusta. That might seem like an exercise in straw-clutching, but he has so far won two majors, both at the same course, and most of his rivals know Quail Hollow particularly well.
Maybe, just maybe, the fact he's only been here for the Presidents Cup will work against him, although he did take part in the 2016 US Open while still an amateur (MC) and therefore has some experience of Oakmont.
My overall feeling here is that the PGA Championship, arguably the strongest major on paper, is the most open. For that reason I don't want to cut through the weeds in the hope of getting 16/1 about a 12/1 chance; I would rather look to what you might call the third wave of the betting and even beyond.
Beyond the big two and those tucked in behind them, TOMMY FLEETWOOD looks the pick of the prices at a generous 50/1 in places.
Fleetwood is currently ranked seventh in the world by DataGolf, ninth in the Official World Golf Rankings, and the players around him are all for the most part considerably shorter. He finds himself 15th in the market or thereabouts and I can't quite figure out why that is.
Perhaps it's the notion that Fleetwood can't or won't win in the US but that's not something I buy into, and his record in stateside majors is extremely good. That's also true of his form at Quail Hollow, where he's been 13th, fifth and 14th on his last three visits.
Notably, he wasn't actually playing his best golf ahead of any of these three previous appearances so there's scope for much better, especially with regular caddie Ian Finnis back on the bag and a solid 2024 behind him. I'd be surprised if he goes off a 50/1 shot and do believe he can win.
It goes without saying that 70/1 about course winner Max Homa is too big but that's a standout price in just a couple of places and can't be recommended in good faith, so it's a double-English attack for me, with TYRRELL HATTON next.
The case here is very similar to the one for Fleetwood. Hatton is elite by any measure yet is twice the price of players like Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas, and while in the past I could've justified that through some poor major performances, there were positives in 2024 including ninth in the Masters and a poor-putting 26th in the US Open.
Significantly, both those came on the kind of golf course that pushes Hatton to breaking point, but Quail Hollow is what I imagine he'd call 'fairer', in that everything is obvious. Hit it there, don't hit it there; if you miss this green, it'll go in that bunker or the thick rough next to hit. There are none of those 'tricks' which add such vibrancy to a game I suspect he'd prefer was bland.
That his win on the PGA Tour came at the similar Bay Hill I think is significant and Hatton was third here in 2023 when he didn't hole a great deal. It seems the best fit for a golfer who is certainly up to going close in a major this year and won't find any more suitable than this, bar perhaps the Open for which he's half the price and far more likely to lose his temper.
The final factor I'd like to point out is that for all the noise, LIV Golf hasn't signed a top-class player during its off-season. That should mean Hatton continues to feature at the business-end of tournaments, quite possibly winning one or two before the PGA, and it won't be hard to make a case for him at a fair bit shorter than 50/1 in that scenario.
Finally, I can't resist taking 200s-plus about TAYLOR PENDRITH.
The big-hitting Canadian has an ideal game for Quail Hollow and was 10th there in May, one week after his PGA Tour breakthrough in the Byron Nelson. In the circumstances that feels like a performance we can upgrade and it came in a Signature Event field, albeit absent of Scheffler.
Since then he's continued to improve, with 10 top-25s in 12 events following the PGA Championship, and having found some confidence with the putter he really does have a powerful, rounded game, the kind which could take him a long way into the mix in some big events.
Following another tame Presidents Cup display there do remain some question marks as to his performances under the gun, the Nelson having been rather handed to him in the end, but I won't dwell too much on that at such big prices.
There's certainly an argument that Quail Hollow has become more a test of driving prowess than it perhaps was when Justin Thomas won this in 2017, with Wyndham Clark then McIlroy dominating the last two editions of the Wells Fargo Championship held here.
Certainly, when combing through the outsiders I'd look towards those capable of competing with McIlroy off the tee and Pendrith fits the bill ahead of Davis Thompson, the youngster with a bright future who might be better supported for major number three rather than major number two.
Posted at 1515 GMT on 23/12/24
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