Golf expert Ben Coley looks at the long-range Masters market, headed of course by two-time champion Scottie Scheffler.
Antepost golf betting tips: The Masters
1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
- Note: Advised only with firms who refund non-starters; avoid Betfred, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes
1pt e.w. Nick Dunlap at 200/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
When Scottie Scheffler won the Masters for a second time in April, he joined several lists – including one for those who won it, lost it, then won it again. Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and now Scheffler all found the defending part difficult, but made absolutely no mistake a year later.
Not that Scheffler's win was as straightforward as the eventual result suggests. For a while during round three, his rare double-bogey at the 10th hole and subsequent bogey at the 11th looked like it might leave him with too much to do. Then, during Sunday's final round, each of Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa appeared ready to take him down, only to all surrender in a brief period shortly after the turn.
While each of them came undone, Scheffler kept hitting the ball almost exactly where he wanted to and his iron play in particular raises the prospect that he proves as dominant as some of the greatest winners of this tournament. Tiger Woods defended this title at the second time of asking and it's little wonder that Scheffler is just 4/1 this far ahead of time, about the price he was before last year's renewal.
No doubt he'll find his way into a few antepost multiples but with 15 weeks to go, taking 4/1 isn't worth thinking about. He'll have to keep winning at a good rate to go off much shorter; comparisons with Woods will continue if he does, but we're probably still some way from Woods-like prices in major championships.
Among the market leaders, 14/1 about regular Augusta contender Xander Schauffele looks the pick given that he's become a two-time major champion since finishing eighth last year. He's a little out of sight, out of mind having only played once since the Presidents Cup, but strong records at Riviera and Sawgrass raise the possibility that he's picked up another big title before April and goes off closer to single-figures.
Justin Thomas has caught the eye to the extent that the remaining 50/1 has gone and still has some way to go to prove that he merits half those odds and forced to side with someone in the second wave of the betting it'd be Max Homa. He has two things in his favour: his breakout Masters display last April, plus the fact the early-season schedule features any number of events he's won or gone close to winning before.
Let's shoot for something bigger though and take the general 200/1 available about NICK DUNLAP, with Coral and Sky Bet paying six places.
The world number 32 has his invitation tucked away and it'll be his second try at Augusta, having missed the cut on debut. That in itself isn't a big negative as the Masters represents an enormous task for any first-timer, especially one who was an amateur just a few months earlier, and while he'll fall down on some trends, Danny Willett, Charl Schwartzel and Jordan Spieth are recent examples of players who won it on their second try.
Dunlap missed the cut narrowly in the end but notably, his approach play was among the best in the field over the opening two rounds. That's potentially significant at just about the most second-shot course in the game, and this vital aspect of his game really caught the eye towards the end of 2024 including when an excellent fifth at Southwind and again in the autumn.
There are negatives, chiefly that he's so far proven inconsistent, hasn't made the weekend in a major and has improvements to make both off the tee and on the greens, but at 200/1 that's all part of the deal. In return we get a potential superstar, already a two-time PGA Tour winner, who might just be capable of taking a big step forward very soon. He's certainly a candidate to go off at a much shorter price.
So is Austin Eckroat and the general 200/1 and best of 250s is well worth considering too.
Eckroat won twice in 2024, just like Dunlap, and though both in mediocre fields, his potential to establish himself at a much higher level is clear. He was 10th in the 2023 US Open too, so we have some major form already, and as with Dunlap his iron play could lead to a significantly improved second Masters.
Tom Kim was 66/1 when largely out of form last spring and taking similar odds (80/1 in a place) following several signs of improvement is tempting. Similarly, Adam Scott was 100/1, has improved since and if able to end a five-year winless run in something like the Genesis Invitational, would likely be the kind of 50/1 chance plenty are making an each-way case for. Admittedly, that's a big 'if'.
Both made some appeal but I really like the look of RICKIE FOWLER at three-figure prices, not only because he could look a great bit of business, but because he could certainly go close to winning a Green Jacket as he has done in the past.
Fowler isn't yet sure of an invitation as he's outside the world's top 50. However, most major bookmakers refund antepost bets on players who do not qualify, which creates this happy circumstance: for Fowler to play the Masters, by definition he needs to have played well between now and April. He may even need to win.
It goes without saying, be sure of this before betting but bet365, BoyleSports, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, and Betfair will all refund antepost bets on players who do not qualify. Note that Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred and BetVictor will settle them as losers and are therefore best avoided. William Hill's rule book is ambiguous.
If Fowler does qualify via the world rankings this genuine Augusta specialist, who has made 10 cuts in 11 and had a couple of chances to win, will probably be more like a 66/1 shot. If he's won, Fowler could feasibly get as low as 33-40s by my estimation, so by backing him with the safety net of returned stakes we're getting fantastic value.
That Fowler still finished 30th last year while driving it abysmally says everything about how capable he is when it comes to getting it around Augusta, scoring well from places where others would run up big numbers. He knows where to miss and his creativity has always made this a comfortable course for him, one where his strengths when firing are accentuated.
There's also reason to believe that Fowler is back on the right path. He returned from a prolonged break with some excellent performances in the autumn, culminating in fourth place in the ZOZO Championship, and his long-game in particular seemed to have improved for the time away even if he spent much of it changing nappies.
I doubt his current absence from Signature Event fields will be a problem – he's likely to receive invites if still requiring them – and based on the way he played when last seen, he'll be one I've an eye on when he returns after Christmas. From there, in his mind, all roads lead to Augusta. Should he make it down Magnolia Lane, he'll begin the Masters at shorter odds than those we can currently take.
Some will argue that he's not going to win a major championship but I doubt those people would've held out much hope for Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark and over the past decade at Augusta, Scott and Sergio Garcia are among those whose wins really should compel us all to remain open-minded.
Garcia by the way is a big price and if he's serious about making the Ryder Cup he'll need to do something in the one major for which he's currently exempt, but his abject Augusta record since that famous duel with Justin Rose is reason enough to avoid temptation.
Stick with Fowler and hold out hope at this hopeful time of year.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 23/12/24
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