Focusing on the favourites should be the way to go in the Zurich Classic according to Ben Coley, who previews the PGA Tour's pairs event.
Golf betting tips: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
4pts win Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
3pts win Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Patton Kizzire and Brendon Todd to lead after round one at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt Brice Garnett and Greyson Sigg to lead after round one at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
I suspect that if you asked the man in the street to describe the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the word 'lottery' might come up along with 'hit-and-giggle' or 'exhibition' or 'why are you asking me about something I'm not interested in and have never heard of while I'm walking my dog?'
But a lottery, it is not. Last year it went to Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, the year before Marc Leishman and Cam Smith. In 2019, Jon Rahm captured this title along with his opportunistic partner, Ryan Palmer. Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy were no longshots in 2018, and we've not had one of those win it since the first edition in this format. Even then, there were strong recent form pointers towards Smith and Jonas Blixt.
With a small field which includes a handful of teams with absolutely no chance whatsoever, this ought to remain one of the more predictable events on the PGA Tour – which has barely thrown up a shock champion this year as it is.
The question is, do the defending champions merit prices as short as 11/4? To answer it, we first need to establish whether there are any negatives relating to Cantlay and Schauffele, who had this won a long way before the finish last year and know each other's games inside out.
I can't find a significant one, not after they each played so well at Harbour Town. It's tempting to suggest that this comes at the end of a busy three weeks for both of them, but Cantlay had lost a play-off for the Heritage before he was the dominant force in their runaway win at TPC Lousiana just days later. Why shouldn't he do the same?
Perhaps defending will catch them out but I doubt that, either. What I will say is that the price simply feels a bit short. They'd have been hard to ignore at 5/1 and more, but at less than 4/1 the line has been drawn for us.
Putt up or shut up...
As for establishing who might be capable of beating them, we have to acknowledge that winning teams have generally featured at least one good putter. Cantlay ranked inside the top 30 this time last year with Schauffele was 60th. Rahm and Palmer boasted remarkably similar statistics while Smith, when he won alongside Leishman, ranked 16th.
Rewind further and Horschel was a solid 51st and it says much about Blixt's capability on the greens that he out-ranked his partner, the aforementioned Smith, when they won here, beating Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown. Again, we're talking about players who can both hold up their end of the bargain on the greens.
There are never any certainties where putting is concerned but with Max Homa having gone a little quiet and Collin Morikawa likewise, I'll chance SUNGJAE IM and KEITH MITCHELL both coming good.
Im was my headline selection last week, finishing in a big share of seventh because he putted poorly and made two bad mistakes among a load of excellent play, before a costly bogey at the final hole.
The putter comes and goes with Im but he'd been solid throughout his previous four starts and made plenty over the first 15 holes on Sunday, which is enough for me to row in again despite what was an immensely frustrating performance. Anything like a good week on the greens and he might've won.
He was 14th last year alongside Ben An and therefore is upgrading partners here with Mitchell, who was sensational when carrying Brandt Snedeker to fourth place in the event in 2021.
Mitchell has been a little quiet lately which rates the main negative, but a top-10 putting display at Sawgrass, another Pete Dye layout where he played really well at the weekend, is a source of encouragement along with the way he began the season.
We know that he's another former Honda Classic winner who occasionally gets really hot on the greens and when he does, it's so often on bermuda grass, but it's his driver that's his main weapon. Mitchell's length and Im's relentless accuracy means we're backing the best driving team in the event for my money.
That platform should make it highly likely that they're in the mix here if their putters fire and I'm willing to take that chance at around the 12/1 mark, with 14s available in selected win-only markets as well as on the exchanges.
My view is that the pool of potential champions is not very big and that double-figure prices about one of the standout teams represents value.
I'll split stakes with TOM KIM and SI WOO KIM, who like the last couple of winners of this event have played team golf together previously.
That's a potentially significant edge and their experience is still fresh in the memory, after they in fact beat Cantlay and Schauffele to earn a precious point in last September's Presidents Cup. Many of you will remember Tom Kim's extraordinary finish to that match and the scenes that ensued.
It's easy to get carried away with such a vivid memory and we do have to accept that neither brings that deadly putting touch to the table, at least on recent form. However, both continue to stripe it, Tom Kim having done so on his Masters debut and then again at Harbour Town, and he definitely has the potential to light up the greens.
Indeed when Kim won his first PGA Tour event last August, he did so with one of the very best putting displays on record. And you'd have struggled to see it coming, because a week earlier he'd ranked 42nd, and a week before that he'd lost strokes when ranking 54th.
Two starts back he ranked a solid 25th at Augusta, too, so we've got something to work with, and Si Woo was also above-average with the putter there.
Si Woo is a real Pete Dye specialist and while his TPC Louisiana record doesn't show it, he's played with Sung Kang and Meen-whee Kim so far. This time he's pairing up with a world-class compatriot, which eases the pressure on him having been the star player in the past, and hopefully that'll free him up as was the case at Quail Hollow.
Certainly, these two have the potential to light it up and I'd love to see them in the mix. Six PGA Tour titles between them, at the combined age of 47, tells you how much they would relish that scenario and it's one I can certainly envisage.
Maidens up against it in foursomes format
I find it quite difficult to imagine any team made up of players yet to win on the PGA Tour doing so together. Yes, this event is a bit of fun, but the rewards remain significant, and foursomes is a very difficult game to play on Sunday. One bad swing and you don't just cost yourself something you've dreamed about for years, but someone else, too.
That and An's issues on the greens are enough for me to swerve his link-up with S.H. Kim, who is at least a very good putter. This pair of Korn Ferry Tour graduates do both arrive in form and can be expected to play well, but getting over the line is a big ask. The same is true of Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler, for whom the positives all relate to Clark, his form all year, and two encouraging displays in this.
Technically, this line of thinking also disqualifies Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard, but Olesen is a highly decorated player with PGA Tour experience and a growing collection of DP World Tour wins. Hojgaard, who is playing superbly and will be an absolute behemoth within a couple of years, has accepted special temporary membership and could use this as a massive springboard.
They're hard to leave out given their explosive potential but Olesen's MC-MC course record is just about enough to put me off. Ultimately this is still a Dye layout, they tend to take a bit of knowing, and another strong theme in past leaderboards has been how well individual form also translates. Even someone like Blixt had threatened here when it was a standard tournament.
Fourballs make first-round lead worth exploring
That brings Patton Kizzire and Brendon Todd into it and they're a prime pairing for the first-round lead, while also making some appeal at standout exchange prices. They can currently be backed at upwards of 100/1 on Betfair versus a general 50/1 with fixed-odds firms and anyone who can access the former is pointed towards a small saver at the very least, given their putting capabilities and sneaky-good form.
For the purposes of this preview, I'll stick with the first-round leader market. These two would worry me a little in foursomes given that Todd is a short driver and Kizzire a wild one, but the latter has found his putting touch again recently and carded a second-round 65 to make a big move last Friday. Todd has been doing similar things of late and they look poised to shoot a low one on Thursday.
Remember, fourballs has been the format for the opening round since 2018 and while Cantlay and Schauffele set the pace with a blistering 59 last year, we'd previously seen some big surprises including when Brian Gay and Rory Sabbatini combined to shoot 60. Gay is a similar player to Todd in many respects and I'd be hopeful the format brings out the best in this Sea Island duo.
Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor are a nice enough partnership albeit Hadwin's form has dipped, I do like Lee Hodges and Robby Shelton as players, while Taylor Moore's red-hot putter and recent win marks him and Matthew NeSmith down as live dangers following last year's top-five. I'm not sure NeSmith's putter will do anything but hinder them, however.
Finally, a word for Brice Garnett and Greyson Sigg, who appeal along with Kizzire/Todd for the first-round lead and to some extent as an each-way outright bet.
Both of these are good putters, Garnett especially, and his win in the Corales Puntacana Championship ticks that box. That victory came in 2018 and a couple of weeks later, he finished fourth in this event alongside Chesson Hadley. Five years on and he arrives having again played well in the Dominican Republic, this time finishing eighth.
Garnett has proven particularly effective in fourballs, leading after a 62 in 2021 and shooting rounds of 61 and 63, too. That 61 came in round three and was the joint-lowest score, so that's twice in his last six fourballs rounds here that Garnett has contributed towards a number nobody else managed to beat that day.
He has a new partner and one without a top-40 finish all year in Sigg. Clearly that's not ideal and explains odds as big as 150/1, but Sigg did hit over 80% of greens in regulation and produced some of his best strokes-gained approach figures despite missing the cut at Harbour Town last week.
Sigg missed the cut narrowly alongside Sepp Straka on his event debut and something similar probably beckons, but this duo are rare among the outsiders in bringing course form, a semblance of current form, and good putting stats to the table. Those looking for a shock winner should consider them strongly, but I think we'll get another from much further up the betting.
Posted at 1620 BST on 18/04/23
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