Ben Coley's golf betting tips: ZOZO Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley put up the winner of last year's ZOZO Championship and is sticking to the same formula as the PGA Tour returns to Japan.
Golf betting tips: ZOZO Championship
4pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Keegan Bradley at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Sebastian Munoz at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Prior to last year's ZOZO Championship, there were understandable concerns that it would not be able to deliver as it had pre-pandemic, on its first and only trip to Japan. Back then, Rory McIlroy, HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, Jason Day and Tiger Woods got the week started with a skins game and Woods finished it with a dazzling victory, the 82nd of his PGA Tour career to tie Sam Snead's record. To round things off, it was Matsuyama who took second, with McIlroy third.
Two years on, Woods unable to play and McIlroy absent from the field, it was left to Matsuyama plus two players with Japanese heritage, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, to do their best to salvage the tournament. Matsuyama did more than that. Six months on from making history in the Masters, he opened with a round of 64, took the lead after round two, and eventually stretched clear to win by five after a closing eagle.
Filling the shoes of Woods is an impossible task, except if you're Hideki Matsuyama, you're the reigning Masters champion, you're back home in Japan, and you do what he did. It was a phenomenal performance, the kind he'd not always seemed capable of for all his awesome talents, and echoed those of Adam Scott when he took his Green Jacket back home to Australia in 2013.
Asking for a repeat almost feels cheeky, and this field is slightly stronger at the front end thanks to Sungjae Im and Tom Kim, the latter arriving on the back of his second win in less than two months and now firmly established as an elite player at just 20 years old. Add Cameron Young and Viktor Hovland, plus the latter's Ryder Cup teammates Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, and this is one of the better end-of-year events despite a limited field and no cut.
But Matsuyama is capable and, given the manner of his win here last year, I think he's a bet at 12/1 and bigger. Remember, he didn't just win by five, but the two players tied for second were the only ones who got within eight of him. Matsuyama beat the rest of the field by more than two strokes per day, and across these two renewals of the ZOZO only a sublime Woods performance has been too good for him.
His form coming in last year was unspectacular and this time, perhaps wisely, he's skipped the Shriners meaning he'll be fresher than those who arrive off that plane – Im, Kim, Si-Woo Kim, Mito Pereira, Cam Davis, Maverick McNealy, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Tom Hoge among them.
I also felt he played well at the Presidents Cup, better than his results having faced the two strongest US pairings in three of his matches, and been let down more than once by a partner. His dramatic half against Sam Burns confirmed his game to be in good shape – theirs was one of the pick of the singles matches – and the fact that he was able to feature in every session suggests we can rely on his health, too.
It's self-evident that Narashino Country Club suits, but it's worth expanding upon why: small, sloping greens demand quality approach play and there's some logic to comparisons with Augusta, given the rough isn't thick, the courses are old-fashioned, and the second shot counts more so than any other. Both winners so far are Masters and Firestone champions and the long par-fours here compare with the latter's South Course, too.
Matsuyama won at another tree-lined course back in January and ultimately, now that he's shown that he's capable of shouldering the burden placed upon him back home in Japan, I expect him to play well virtually every time he comes here. Conditions and motivation count for a lot in this sport, and under these conditions, with his title to defend, Matsuyama deserves to be vying for favouritism.
Morikawa hasn't won so far in 2022 and that will irk the American, who is focused on winning above all else. He's played well on each visit to Japan, including fifth place in the Dunlop Phoenix and narrowly missing a medal behind Schauffele in Tokyo last summer, and would be clear second best from the big names. Indeed I considered splitting stakes between the two.
Instead, I'll opt for another player with Japanese heritage, KURT KITAYAMA.
It's been a really impressive year for the American, who threatened to win a couple of times during his rookie PGA Tour campaign and showed his versatility in doing so, taking third in the tough Honda Classic and second in the low-scoring Mexico Open before finishing runner-up again in Scotland.
Adaptability is also something he's shown in his young career, defying strong winds in Oman, and before establishing himself on the DP World Tour he played out in the Far East, winning in Malaysia on his first Asian Development Tour start.
Also second in Thailand, Kitayama played an event in Japan in 2016 and contended all week, finishing fourth, so I'm not surprised he's leapt at the first opportunity he's had to come back out here for the ZOZO Championship.
We'll have to take our chances regarding the course but he's a big-hitter who ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee in Italy two starts ago and his quality around-the-green game should be a huge help: that's something Matsuyama put to use as had Woods in 2019 and these small, sloping greens will ask questions when players miss them.
Kitayama's approach play has also been good lately, particularly in Rome but also last week where he endured a miserable time with the putter. Missing the cut in Las Vegas may prove to be a blessing in disguise, however, and it was notable how poorly most of last year's contenders had played under the very different conditions of the desert over the preceding fortnight.
At 55th in the Official World Golf Rankings, Kitayama is within touching distance of the majors next year so combine that with a Japanese mum and he's one of those who will be determined to make the most of this no-cut opportunity and round off what's been a really good year, one in which he's made the good weeks pay.
Back towards the front of the betting there are a number of viable options but I am a little wary of backing those who played well in Las Vegas over the weekend, such as Pereira and Si-Woo Kim.
More appealing are some of their Presidents Cup teammates, as this is a good course for Corey Conners to come out and prove a point after a nightmare week in Charlotte, but SEBASTIAN MUNOZ is preferred.
There's no real secret to this one as Munoz was fourth here last year, having finished T3 on his debut in Japan at the Olympics, where he narrowly missed out on a medal after that massive play-off won by CT Pan.
Munoz's efforts here make perfect sense when you look through his profile, with third and seventh in two starts at the Greenbrier (one of them behind Schauffele, who won gold in Tokyo), fourth at the John Deere Classic, third at Colonial and seventh at East Lake, plus his sole PGA Tour win to date at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
His profile is one of a player who thrives on tree-lined, classical courses and he showed as much when striping it at Riviera earlier this year, so perhaps we shouldn't have been altogether surprised that he fared so well at Quail Hollow after all.
Beating world number one Scottie Scheffler there could be huge for him. Look at Scheffler himself, and what he did after toppling Jon Rahm in the Ryder Cup. Look too at Cam Smith, whose first PGA Tour win came on his first start back after he beat Justin Thomas in the 2019 Presidents Cup singles.
Munoz almost certainly won't go on to reach those heights but the belief he'll have taken from playing so well for captain Trevor Immelman and his teammates will be significant, and as for the way they rallied, look at how those players have performed since. Almost to a man they've come out and threatened, and so have several of those narrowly overlooked for selection.
Rewind to last year and Munoz arrived here having gone MC-MC-MC-49 to start the new season. This time he's fresh off the back of a career highlight and with a strong record in these late-season events, it wouldn't be a surprise were he to double his tally in the coming weeks and underline the transformative effects of such an experience.
I mentioned Pan's Olympics bronze there and he made the shortlist having shown up well for a time in the 2019 ZOZO. This time last year I was pondering whether to put him up at 66/1 when that price started to go and he returns a 200/1 shot, one who arrived in Tokyo early and won't have jet lag as an excuse.
Throw in the fact that his approach work last time out was really good and he's definitely one to watch along with Aaron Rai, if the Englishman can overcome the flight from Nevada. He's a winner at Fanling, a similar course in some ways, and the strength of his ball-striking marks him down as a potential contender at a best of 100/1.
Ultimately though I think the winner will come from towards the front of the market and will round things off with KEEGAN BRADLEY, who will relish the rain-softened conditions.
Another former Firestone champion, Bradley said he loved the course when starting brightly here in 2019, perhaps paying the price for a weekend in the company of Woods, and returned last year to finish with a flourish for seventh place.
He said at the Sanderson Farms last time how much he enjoys a tree-lined course and before that, at the BMW Championship, he talked about how much he relishes hitting driver as often as possible. With three par-fives and a number of long par-fours, plus the rain which has fallen in Japan recently, it ought to be an important weapon this week.
Bradley opened with a 64 in his final event of last season and carded another on his return to begin this one with fifth place in Jackson, and as we saw with a run of top-10 finishes in the spring, he tends to keep hold of his form when he finds it. Second place at the Wells Fargo came under soft conditions, last year's runner-up finish at the Valspar on a course comparable to this one, and we know where we stand with one of the finest drivers of a ball there is.
His record in the CIMB Classic (runner-up in 2017, sixth in 2016, and four hot starts in five) shows again how well he travels as does a good return in the WGC-HSBC Champions, where he was sixth in 2018, led on debut, and played well in all bar one of his six visits to China. Then there's the fact that bentgrass is his preferred putting surface, which to a degree allays fears over the fact that it was his putter that carried him to a top-five in Mississippi.
Bradley is one more good performance away from locking up his first Masters start since 2019 and having produced the goods on both previous starts here, despite his recent form being substandard, I expect him to be in the mix.
Posted at 1125 BST on 11/10/22
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