Ben Coley's golf betting tips: WGC Match Play group-by-group and player records
The WGC-Match Play Championship begins on Wednesday at Austin Country Club and Ben Coley has five each-way selections.
Golf betting tips: WGC-Dell Match Play
1.5pts e.w. Jordan Spieth 35/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Max Homa 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Talor Gooch 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Brian Harman 70/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4)
It's not for everyone, the WGC-Match Play, and it does seem peculiar that for many of the world's best golfers, this could be their final outing before the Masters. Avoiding such a scenario is why Rory McIlroy isn't here, preferring instead to use next week's Texas Open as his springboard, but the field remains exceptionally strong. World number 74, Maverick McNealy, is the lowest-ranked player heading to Austin Country Club.
The main issue the event has isn't the schedule nor even the absence of McIlroy, Cameron Smith and Sam Burns, but one which has existed both before and since a 2015 format switch. Wednesday begins with 32 matches, action everywhere and no shortage of storylines. Come Sunday afternoon there are two matches on the course, one of them inconsequential, and it's hard for golf to hide the fact that most of it is walking and talking.
Despite that and the fact that picking a winner is not easy, I really like this event. It's a rare treat to watch match play golf and while a round-robin group format softens the cutthroat nature of the format, we do get three full days of proper entertainment. At the weekend, dare I say depending on pre-tournament positions, we can go our separate ways if we have to.
In terms of finding that winner, there are mixed messages. The idea of the move to 16 groups, through which 16 players reach Saturday's first knockout round, was not only to ensure the best players are here for a while, but to give them the best platform to go all the way. At first it worked: top-seed McIlroy won the first such renewal, second-seed Jason Day the second, and top-seed Dustin Johnson the third.
But since Johnson's defeat of a wet-behind-the-ears Jon Rahm, things have changed quite considerably, and I believe Austin has a lot to do with that. This is a quirky, dramatic course, typical of Pete Dye, and it might not be for everyone. Seeds 30, 31, 32 and 52 made up Sunday's latter stages in 2021, Kevin Kisner was seeded 48 when he won in 2019, and he was runner-up as 32nd seed to Bubba Watson, 35, a year earlier.
Last year's renewal was especially volatile with just one of the 16 groups won by the top seed, and in that respect Austin reminds me of Sawgrass, Dye's most famous creation. Yes, we often do get a top-drawer winner, such as Smith a fortnight ago, but there's definite scope for lower-ranked players to compete despite an exceptional field, with the course acting as a leveller.
Indeed, Sawgrass form has appeared to translate really well. Kisner has won more matches here than anyone else and he's been second and fourth there. Alex Noren and Ian Poulter boast the best established winning percentages, and they too have gone close over at the Stadium Course. Louis Oosthuizen, a beaten finalist in 2016, Matt Kuchar, Justin Thomas, Day... there are plenty of nods in that direction, and while defending champion Billy Horschel has never quite put it together at a course he knows so well, he is otherwise a bit of a Dye specialist.
Before going through the draw quarter-by-quarter, I'll also address the elephant in the room: putting. I tend to think it's convenient to ignore names like Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood when arguing that putting is king in match play, those two having been brilliant Ryder Cup players, but it's hard to argue against the fact that in Horschel, Kisner and Day in particular, we've had some very good putters win this.
The same was true under the old format via Kuchar, Poulter, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy, David Toms and Steve Stricker, and it's certainly true that match play has often rewarded neat, tidy wedge players who hole more than their share and give little away for free.
Quarter one
- Winner Group 15 v Winner Group 2
- Winner Group 7 v Winner Group 10
BRIAN HARMAN shares plenty in common with Kevin Kisner, his fellow Georgia Bulldog. Both are gritty competitors with strong match play records right back to their amateur days. At their best, they putt brilliantly. And they've both got stacks of Dye form, in Harman's case three top-10s at Sawgrass, four at TPC River Highlands and two at Harbour Town.
Kisner of course has established himself as extremely difficult to beat here and Harman might prove likewise in a winnable group, where Webb Simpson has questions to answer, and both Bubba Watson and Abraham Ancer disappointed last week. Ancer could well bounce back but Harman has topped his group in both previous appearances here, losing out narrowly to Bubba in 2018 but taking his revenge in their last-16 clash in 2021.
After that he lost to Kuchar, another genuine course specialist, and having thumped Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama, as well as edged past Patrick Cantlay in sudden-death, his credentials are very strong. Throw in the fact his putter finally warmed up for fifth place last week at the Valspar, and he looks to me like he could well top Group 15.
It's likely he'll then face either Collin Morikawa or Sergio Garcia but Harman will look like a bad draw if he does progress to the knockout stages for the third time in as many starts. He is worth backing at 50/1 and upwards.
Group 7 may be at the mercy of Xander Schauffele according to the form book, with Tony Finau below his best all year and Lucas Herbert riding a hot putter at Bay Hill. He could pose problems if in the same shape here and so could the talented Takumi Kanaya, whose sharp short-game will be an asset, but Schauffele has no excuses and therefore merits consideration at 25/1.
However, his last-16 opponent is guaranteed to be tricky, with Alex Noren, Louis Oosthuizen and Paul Casey all boasting strong credentials in Group 10, where Corey Conners also comes with plenty to recommend him. I'd much rather focus on the top part of this section and hope Harman can reach the quarter-finals, where he'll likely have to win as an underdog. He's up to the task.
Quarter two
There's plenty to like about Russell Henley in Group 14, as he ought to beat Kevin Na first up. After that he'll face Joaquin Niemann before facing Maverick McNealy and it looks a decent enough draw. I am though a little worried about what McNealy's combination of power and putting could do in the early stages and Henley doesn't look any more than a fair price outright.
He could also face Viktor Hovland in the last-16, the Norwegian well-housed in Group 3. Like Will Zalatoris, however, he does have to overcome a very significant weakness in the short-game department and while flushing his way through seven matches is certainly within his capabilities, it's not a chance I'd be willing to take.
Instead, it's worth backing JORDAN SPIETH given that Group 11 includes two players who've been reluctant to take part in the Match Play in the past. Adam Scott's record in Texas is excellent and it's not as though he and Justin Rose are not capable of giving Spieth problems, but if he starts with a win against Keegan Bradley I think he'll steamroller this section.
Afterwards it's either Justin Thomas or Kevin Kisner unless either Luke List or Marc Leishman can take out two real dangermen. Spieth beat Thomas here in 2016 but much has changed since and he would of course be a marginal underdog. However, since a Ryder Cup trouncing in 2018, his record in this format is vastly improved and nobody has beaten him before the 18th hole.
His play this year has been mixed but he almost won at Pebble Beach, can be forgiven Sawgrass, and has shown plenty of signs of encouragement elsewhere. He'll need to warm up the putter but he invariably does that on bermuda greens in Texas and having narrowly lost out at the last-16 stage last year, I'm hopeful he can make amends and have a real run at this for the first time.
Every finalist here over the last three renewals has been from the Southern states and Spieth could give these Texas crowds plenty to cheer for at the weekend. Backing him and Harman in the top half gives us two players who fit the Austin profile and could be really dangerous if getting on a roll.
Quarter three
The third quarter might just house the winner, but it is very difficult to narrow down a list of strong candidates. Group 13 for instance contains two in-form Ryder Cup players, plus one of the biggest Dye specialists in the competition, and a player in Christiaan Bezuidenhout who boasts one of the very best short-games.
It is extremely difficult to unravel, not least because Tyrrell Hatton's victims here were all big outsiders: Charles Howell, Jeunghun wang, Anirban Lahiri, Alex Levy, Brendan Steele, and Lee Westwood. He was poor last year, disappointing at the Ryder Cup, and has questions to answer despite having seemingly been back close to his best lately.
Daniel Berger might then be the percentage call having been a bit unfortunate here last year but with Patrick Cantlay or Sungjae Im likely to follow, it's a section I want to leave alone.
Perhaps it would be wise to do the same with the next part of this quarter, but Group 12 is not to be feared with Billy Horschel the standout. He was excellent last year and a repeat win is possible, but he's not a player I'd be afraid of taking on for all he ought to win his group.
In Group 5, we've four players who appeal to some degree. Scottie Scheffler has won twice this year and made the final in 2021. This is a home game for the Texas man and after a scintillating Ryder Cup debut, he of course has to be respected.
That said it's no picnic starting off against Ian Poulter, who has won 75% of his matches here. Poulter's form is solid enough and he might just claim another notable scalp, with outright odds of 100/1 perfectly fair on everything we know about him.
But I prefer MATT FITZPATRICK, one of the form players in world golf right now with top-10 finishes on four of his five starts this year, the exception when caught on the wrong side of the Sawgrass draw bias.
Fitzpatrick had everything working again in the Valspar and if he can win two all-English affairs to start, he can progress from a very difficult group. Note that while he has a losing record here he did win two matches in 2021 and had previously beaten Paul Casey and Justin Thomas. He has a point to prove after a disastrous Ryder Cup and I really do believe he can win this.
Quarter four
Among the obvious players to take on here are Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff, who are in groups 9 and 8 respectively, and with Dustin Johnson not yet convincing, there could be mileage in taking two against the rest in the top part of the bottom quarter.
If you can bet with firms paying eight places, take MAX HOMA to beat Johnson in Group 8, and TALOR GOOCH to upstage DeChambeau in Group 9. Should they both do so, an each-way return would be guaranteed as they'd meet in the last-16, though with the standout 66/1 available on Gooch, those who can take that price should risk the four spots instead.
Homa arrives on the back of four straight top-20 finishes, including at Sawgrass to tick that particular box. His putter has cooled since the PGA Tour came out east but that shouldn't concern us too much given that he has putted well on bermuda before, and his blend of quality approach work and a strong short-game may make him difficult to beat.
Homa has won three times now, twice at championship courses in deep waters, and he made an eye-catching debut here last year, beating Morikawa and JT Poston but losing to the eventual champion, Horschel. There will be no excuses when he faces an out-of-sorts Wolff on Wednesday and if he can avoid a hot putting round from Mackenzie Hughes, he'll go into a showdown with DJ full of confidence.
Gooch, fifth at Sawgrass last year, faces English veterans Lee Westwood and Richard Bland before a returning DeChambeau. It is a very good draw and though he was disappointing here last year, it was his debut and he's since become a PGA Tour champion who has contended regularly this season.
Finally, at the very bottom of the draw we've the mouthwatering prospect of Jon Rahm v Brooks Koepka on Saturday. Rahm's biggest threat could be Sebastian Munoz but I do believe he'll progress and if forced to take one of the favourites, it would be the Spaniard.
Koepka meanwhile caught the eye at the Valspar and is respected, but before Rahm he might have to overcome Shane Lowry in a Friday decider and this probably isn't an absolutely ideal course for him.
Posted at 0930 on 22/03/21
Draw & tournament bracket
Top half
- Winner Group 15 v Winner Group 2
- Winner Group 7 v Winner Group 10
- Winner Group 11 v Winner Group 6
- Winner Group 3 v Winner Group 14
Bottom half
- Winner Group 13 v Winner Group 4
- Winner Group 5 v Winner Group 12
- Winner Group 9 v Winner Group 8
- Winner Group 1 v Winner Group 16
Group-by-group guide
Group 1
- Jon Rahm
- Patrick Reed
- Cameron Young
- Sebastian Munoz
Jon Rahm produced his worst display of the year at Sawgrass but he's been handed a nice group to begin the Match Play. Sebastian Munoz lost all three matches on his debut, Cameron Young is in here for the first time after an impressive rise, and Patrick Reed has been badly out of sorts.
Reed did at least improve a little in The PLAYERS but that was thanks to a red-hot putter, and off the tee he was abysmal. That could be a problem here and he's won just one group match in each of the last two renewals of the Match Play. No doubt he'll see this as a chance to prove a point having been left out of the Ryder Cup side but his game looks in a bad place.
Munoz on the other hand is in good form and may present the biggest danger. He gave Rahm a really good game in what was his first match in the event last year, losing 1up, and his form carries greater substance this time. He may put that experience to use whereas Young may find that his prodigious driving isn't quite enough to win matches here.
Twice in four years, Rahm has won all three group games. That will be firmly on the cards if he beats Munoz in his opener again.
Group 2
- Collin Morikawa
- Jason Kokrak
- Sergio Garcia
- Robert MacIntyre
It wasn't the best of debuts for Collin Morikawa last year, and if you throw in his Ryder Cup singles match he failed to win any of the four he played in 2021. It's nice to have something to criticise him for, isn't it?
Not that you'd be confident in taking him on although Robert MacIntyre is an aggressive, dangerous player who tied with DJ last year and won the group. He did suffer a 5&4 thumping in the last 16 but that experience against Johnson won't be lost on the Scot and it's a bit of a banana-skin for the top seed.
Jason Kokrak hasn't really been a factor this year and I would fancy Sergio Garcia to beat him in their match on Wednesday. Garcia has won 12 matches from 20 at Austin, the city he now calls home, and memorably beat Westwood in sudden-death with a hole-in-one last year. He made the quarter-finals just as he had in 2019 and might just be the value call if Morikawa does struggle on the greens as he has done the last fortnight.
Group 3
- Viktor Hovland
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Tringale
- Sepp Straka
It was a disappointing debut for Viktor Hovland last year, losing 4&2 to alternate Kevin Streelman, and then by the same scoreline to Bernd Wiesberger. He's come a heck of a long way since, though, and if his troublesome short-game doesn't cost him too many holes looks an obvious candidate for the title.
All eyes will be on Friday's clash with Will Zalatoris, but before then he has to overcome in-form Sepp Straka, who finished an excellent ninth in The PLAYERS just two weeks after his win at the Honda. Straka has made a heck of a lot of putts this season and that combined with low expectations could make him dangerous.
Zalatoris meanwhile has one major problem of his own to overcome: close-range putting. Surely, nobody here will give him anything and those ugly strokes from inside five feet, which invariably result in a bad miss or two, put him on the back foot in an event like this. For that reason alone he's actually quite hard to fancy and the no-frills game of Cameron Tringale could just scupper him at the very first hurdle.
Group 4
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sungjae Im
- Seamus Power
- Keith Mitchell
Patrick Cantlay has a winning record at Austin, yet hasn't made it out of his group in three attempts. That tells you he's been a little unfortunate, not least a year ago when beating Brian Harman, only to then lose to the left-hander in sudden-death. In three appearances he's lost one game each time, to Cameron Smith, Tiger Woods, and Hideki Matsuyama.
If you take a positive view of his form, that is to say ignore Sawgrass, he looks a very likely type here. His Dye form is generally strong, his sharp short-game is a big plus, and it's even possible that his pace-of-play frustrates opponents in the same way Billy Horschel's constant chatter might.
He does have a trappy start, however. Keith Mitchell played well in all three matches here in 2019, claiming the scalp of Ian Poulter and giving course specialist Kevin Kisner a real game. He returns in arguably the form of his life and I've a feeling Cantlay will be made to work very hard.
With Sungjae Im also in the group this is a very difficult one to call and you could even make a case for Seamus Power, who has long been a dynamite putter and showed a bit more at Sawgrass last time.
Group 5
- Scottie Scheffler
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Ian Poulter
Man-of-the-moment Scottie Scheffler was brought back down to earth by the 17th at Sawgrass, but will be chomping at the bit to get going here. A Texas native, he made the final on his debut last year and subsequently went on to thump Jon Rahm at the Ryder Cup, so his credentials are obvious.
He does face three Ryder Cup players, though, and each of them with bits and pieces to recommend them here. Ian Poulter has won nine of his 12 matches at the course, a percentage bettered only by one player. Tommy Fleetwood also boasts a positive record and should've beaten Horschel in the quarter-finals last year. He's also found form again lately.
And then there's Matt Fitzpatrick, who has finished inside the top 10 in four of his five starts this year. His Ryder Cup record isn't good, nor indeed is his overall match play record, but last year he won two of his three group games here. He loves Dye courses (Sawgrass and Harbour Town in particular) and was one I really liked before the draw.
This is a really difficult group to unravel but it's still tempting to try.
Group 6
- Justin Thomas
- Kevin Kisner
- Marc Leishman
- Luke List
This part of the draw looks especially fascinating for many reasons. First up, Justin Thomas is playing really well and looks a threat wherever he goes. He'll start off here against a debutant who often misses short putts in Luke List, and though Marc Leishman won't be an easy opponent, the Aussie has landed a difficult draw.
That leaves Kevin Kisner, who beat Thomas and Oosthuizen last year only to lose to Matt Kuchar in the final group game. Kisner, winner of this title in 2019, has won more matches than anyone at Austin (16 of 23) and though he's been hit and miss this year, he was fourth at The PLAYERS and then a solid 33rd last week.
Thomas will be dead set on revenge and will probably get it, but there's no doubt he could've landed a slightly kinder draw in terms of the player he'll face on Friday. He's drifted just a shade but I'd rather back him at 14/1 for the Masters than this.
Group 7
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Lucas Herbert
- Takumi Kanaya
Xander Schauffele is another of those who hasn't got anything out of this tournament despite a positive record. On all three appearances he's finished runner-up in his group, and the man who pipped him in sudden-death last year went all the way to the final.
After a strong tee-to-green display last week, he looks primed for a big run and perhaps even a win which would end the drought, and yet in some ways sustain it – he hasn't won a full-field, stroke play event on the PGA Tour since January 2019, but since then has been the best player in the staggered-start TOUR Championship, and of course won Olympic gold.
Schauffele's draw is good as Takumi Kanaya makes his debut after a mixed start to the year. The Japanese is a real talent and his sharp short-game could help cause an upset, but there are no excuses for Schauffele, after which he'll face a couple of big-hitters who are not necessarily at their best right now.
Tony Finau has a level record here but has been out of sorts this year and though Lucas Herbert was seventh two starts back, that owed plenty to a fabulous putting display. Schauffele should win this group.
Group 8
- Dustin Johnson
- Max Homa
- Matthew Wolff
- Mackenzie Hughes
Dustin Johnson is a former winner who demands respect, having hinted that his game is coming back around over the last few weeks. He was a shade disappointing at the Valspar but that was largely down to the putter and it's not all that difficult to see one win following another and his confidence returning as the tournament evolves.
That said, he's far from invulnerable and in a group with Kevin Na, Robert MacIntyre and Adam Long last year, managed to win just once. This is probably a shade tougher as while a struggling Matthew Wolff was probably the best draw of the competition, the other two members of the group could both make life difficult for him.
Max Homa in particular is playing well, his long-game impressing throughout the Florida swing. He lost out on the third hole of a sudden-death play-off to the eventual winner last year, having also lost their match on the 18th, and despite lacking match play experience looks the right kind of player for this.
Mackenzie Hughes meanwhile was unbeaten in the group stage before losing to Sergio Garcia in a close match. Since then he's gained further top-tier experience by playing well in two majors last year, and he has some sneaky Pete Dye form. He's also prone to rolling in a monster putt and that aspect of his game returned in the Valspar.
Johnson is obviously the man to beat but there could be some mileage in opposing him either in singles on the day, or by splitting stakes between Homa and Hughes to win the group. Homa gets a nice opener against Wolff and would earn the marginal vote if forced to choose.
Group 9
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Talor Gooch
- Lee Westwood
- Richard Bland
Bryson DeChambeau was always going to look a good draw, having been absent since withdrawing from the Saudi International. He's won just two of his six matches here, failing to advance from the group stage in either appearance, his two victims Russell Knox and Si-Woo Kim.
As it transpires, he looks to have landed a pretty good draw himself, and a chance to play his way to sharpness. His first two opponents are debutant Richard Bland, aged 49, and 48-year-old Lee Westwood. Bland has been a revelation and might just give him a game, but DeChambeau will be favourite and he really can't have any complaints, with Westwood and Talor Gooch owning losing records at Austin.
That said, many will fancy Gooch to advance. He was very poor last year but has since become a PGA Tour winner, he boasts the best recent form line thanks to seventh place at Bay Hill, and Sawgrass form to tick the Dye box.
Group 10
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Paul Casey
- Corey Conners
- Alex Noren
The low-key tie of the first round might be Louis Oosthuizen v Alex Noren. Between them, they've won 24 matches at Austin Country Club, Oosthuizen reaching the final back in 2016 and Noren winning each of his first six group games here, and eight of nine in total in the round-robin stage.
With Noren arriving in rock-solid form whereas Oosthuizen hasn't been at his best, perhaps the Swede will beat the top seed, but things remain tricky after that with Paul Casey and Corey Conners to come. Casey has won his group here twice and lost in sudden-death on another occasion, and Conners is better than he showed last year.
Both matches on Wednesday are really hard to call and the only certainty is that whoever wins this group will make life difficult for whomever they face on Saturday morning.
Group 11
- Jordan Spieth
- Adam Scott
- Justin Rose
- Keegan Bradley
Four major winners to round things off at the bottom of the top half, and it might just be worth giving Jordan Spieth another chance after he suffered from a bad draw at Sawgrass. Spieth still hit plenty of quality approaches and I quite like where his game is, having hit the crossbar at Pebble Beach earlier in the campaign.
First he'll face Keegan Bradley, which is no easy task. Bradley missed the cut last week but only just, and perhaps he was suffering from a PLAYERS hangover after the quick turnaround. He made a great run at it on Monday at Sawgrass and remains a man for the big occasion. It's also worth noting that while his record here may not look good, all six matches have gone down the last, and he's halved with Rahm and JT.
Adam Scott can be forgiven what happened at Sawgrass but like Justin Rose, he's often skipped this event. That means his only win at Austin came against Chris Wood six years ago and while his newfound putting prowess may help, I don't think he's a player to fear at a quirky course where experience might be a big factor.
Rose did top his group in 2019 but he was the world number two at the time and had a good draw. He's misfired the last two weeks and while there's plenty of incentive given his position in the world rankings, I quite fancy him to finish bottom this time.
Group 12
- Billy Horschel
- Thomas Pieters
- Tom Hoge
- Min-Woo Lee
To look at this group you'd have to wonder whether the defending champion gets to select his opponents. That's not meant to disrespect Thomas Pieters or Min Woo Lee, two players I really like, but this isn't the best course for either man, while Tom Hoge makes his debut.
All of that suggests Billy Horschel can progress in an event where we've seen certain players establish themselves as genuine specialists. I believe that's largely due to a quirky course, and Horschel has won at another Dye design, TPC Louisiana, while playing well at the likes of Sawgrass and Harbour Town.
His withdrawal from The PLAYERS isn't ideal but it was reportedly to do with a sinus issue and if that's behind him, given improvements in his long-game and a desperate desire to make the Presidents Cup team, a stout defence is very much possible.
Group 13
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Daniel Berger
- Si-Woo Kim
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tyrrell Hatton is top seed for this competitive group and he's got a decent Austin record, losing out only in sudden-death on his first go and then topping his group in both 2018 and 2019. Last year didn't go to plan and the same could be said of his second Ryder Cup appearance, but he's entitled to plenty of respect.
The fact Hatton has finished no worse than 28th this year tells you how hard he should be to shift, although Daniel Berger has been similarly strong despite a couple of injury niggles. He endured a nightmare debut here in 2016, struggling badly for fitness, and also finished bottom in 2018. However he does look a good course fit and won two of his three games last year, losing out in extra holes.
Berger has beaten Si-Woo Kim in this before and the Korean does have questions to answer despite being something of a Dye specialist. His withdrawal at Sawgrass is less of a concern than his performance here last year and it'll be a bit of a surprise if he advances. The same is true of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who won't scare anybody for all he might frustrate them with a chip-in along the way.
Group 14
- Joaquin Niemann
- Kevin Na
- Russell Henley
- Maverick McNealy
Wednesday's opener between two fine, young talents will be interesting, especially if you like to see stingers off the tee. Joaquin Niemann and Maverick McNealy both make that shot look easy and these two former world number one amateurs will enjoy going up against each other.
It's a pretty stark contrast with the other match going on as the sharp short-game of Kevin Na and the accurate ball-striking of Russell Henley square off. Henley will fancy his chances after Na's awful display at Bay Hill, after which he withdrew from The PLAYERS with his third child on the way.
If Henley gets on a roll I can see him doing some damage here, and it may be that these Sunday frailties we've seen from a player who used to look ice cool are less of an issue in this format. He was competitive in all three games last year, beating the player who won his group, and has plenty of Dye form. He might just upstage the younger names after another stunning display of approach work at Sawgrass.
Group 15
- Abraham Ancer
- Webb Simpson
- Brian Harman
- Bubba Watson
Texas-born Abraham Ancer has finished runner-up in his group on both appearances and is definitely one who is suited to the course. He's got Dye form aplenty and there wasn't all that much to be concerned about in last week's missed cut, for all he's a fan of Coperhead.
He'll face a tricky opener, though. Bubba Watson has won 10 and halved five of his 21 matches at Austin and won a difficult group last year. Watson went on to lose to Brian Harman in the last 16 so there's a rematch coming and both left-handers are big players here, the latter having been catching the eye regularly of late.
Webb Simpson has only recently returned from injury and was very poor through the weekend of the Vaspar, while his record here is not good, either. His Dye form is (winner at Harbour Town and Sawgrass; runner-up Louisiana) but he might just struggle to contain Harman in their opener, and from there perhaps Harman can sneak through.
Group 16
- Brooks Koepka
- Shane Lowry
- Harold Varner
- Erik van Rooyen
Should Rahm win Group 1, he could again face Erik van Rooyen in the last 16. That happened last year when Rahm ran out a 3&2 winner, though van Rooyen was perhaps fortunate to be in the knockout rounds as he lost 6&4 to Daniel Berger, but then won his next two matches and cruelly beat Berger in sudden-death.
The South African would be preferred to Harold Varner if there is to be an upset, but this group could boil down to Shane Lowry's clash with Brooks Koepka on Friday. Both are playing nicely and I was particularly taken with Koepka's display at the Valspar, albeit conditions there were easier than usual and it's a very good course for his game.
Lowry has a poor record in Austin but perhaps now he's experienced the Ryder Cup, that will change. It's a good course on paper as he's been very effective on Pete Dye designs, notably Kiawah Island last May and of course Sawgrass, where he made a memorable hole-in-one a fortnight ago.
I respect him hugely, but at 33/1 Koepka and 40/1 Lowry, could only go one way in the outright market. With Rahm potentially next though this top segment looks difficult enough.
Player records at Austin Country Club
Winning records
Sorted by most wins in Won-Lost-Halved
- Kevin Kisner: 16-6-1
- Louis Oosthuizen: 13-9-0
- Sergio Garcia: 12-7-1
- Dustin Johnson: 12-8-1
- Alex Noren: 11-3-0
- Bubba Watson: 10-6-5
- Jon Rahm: 10-5-3
- Ian Poulter: 9-3-0
- Jordan Spieth: 9-5-3
- Justin Thomas: 9-9-1
- Patrick Reed: 8-6-3
- Paul Casey: 8-6-3
- Kevin Na: 8-8-2
- Billy Horschel: 8-4-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 7-5-2
- Tyrrell Hatton: 6-6-2
- Brooks Koepka: 6-5-1
- Marc Leishman: 6-7-3
- Patrick Cantlay: 5-3-1
- Brian Harman: 5-3-1
- Xander Schauffele: 4-2-3
- Scottie Scheffler: 4-1-2
- Abraham Ancer: 4-2-0
- Justin Rose: 3-2-2
- Mackenzie Hughes: 2-1-1
- Max Homa: 2-1-0
- Joaquin Niemann: 1-0-2
Level records
'Level' assumes halved match = 0.5pt; Won-Lost-Halved
- Will Zalatoris: 1-1-1
- Matthew Wolff: 1-1-1
- Adam Scott: 1-1-1
- Robert MacIntyre: 1-1-2
- Erik van Rooyen: 2-2-0
- Tony Finau: 4-4-1
Losing records
Sorted by most losses in Won-Lost-Halved
- Daniel Berger: 3-9-0
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 6-9-0
- Hideki Matsuyama: 5-8-2
- Webb Simpson: 2-7-3
- Shane Lowry: 2-7-3
- Si Woo Kim: 3-7-3
- Lee Westwood: 5-6-1
- Luke List: 1-5-0
- Bryson DeChambeau: 2-4-0
- Thomas Pieters: 2-4-3
- Corey Conners: 0-3-0
- Sebastian Munoz: 0-3-0
- Russell Henley: 2-3-1
- Collin Morikawa: 0-2-1
- Talor Gooch: 0-2-1
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 0-2-1
- Keith Mitchell: 1-2-0
- Viktor Hovland: 1-2-0
- Jason Kokrak: 1-2-0
- Keegan Bradley: 0-1-2
Debutants
- Sam Burns
- Tom Hoge
- Harold Varner
- Lucas Herbert
- Cameron Young
- Seamus Power
- Cameron Tringale
- Min Woo Lee
- Richard Bland
- Takumi Kanaya
- Sepp Straka