Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Wells Fargo Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley believes that Viktor Hovland can land the biggest win of his young career in this week's Wells Fargo Championship.
Golf betting tips: Wells Fargo Championship
3pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
3pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 22/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 60/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Rory McIlroy's decision to skip the RBC Heritage was the correct one for him. How do I know? Because he made it. The complaints which followed, including from some of his fellow professionals, were misguided. They want reminding that McIlroy has given up a lot of his time over the past year to help strengthen the PGA Tour and we have a direct way to measure how that has gone, through the purses which designated events now receive.
McIlroy, like every other player on the circuit, has the right to choose when and where he wants to play, within the terms of membership. Providing the PGA Tour does as it said it would do and denies him a percentage of PIP money (Player Impact Program) for skipping two of these tournaments, which it should, then there ought to be nobody who has any issue with a 33-year-old father taking a week off work. The fault lies with those thinking it was a good idea to demand elite players turn up a week after the Masters.
McIlroy returns now seeking sanctity at Quail Hollow, where he's found it before. His PGA Tour breakthrough came here in 2010, three weeks after he'd shot a chastening 74-77 to miss the cut at Augusta. That was his first Masters missed cut; his second came a long time later in 2021, when he came back here for his next start and won the Wells Fargo Championship again. It was his third victory at a course he simply adores.
He has always been better at bouncing back than some would have you believe. Remember, his US Open romp in 2011 came two months after he'd blown the Masters. When he wept his way to a missed cut at Portrush in 2019, when he wanted to make it more than ever, he became FedEx Cup champion the following month. Last year, when he had the Open within his grasp and let it slip, he went and won the FedEx Cup again – despite starting the final tournament with a triple-bogey.
You don't get to be the finest golfer Europe has produced since Sir Nick Faldo without being resolute and hard-working. This notion that McIlroy is some god-given talent who would be even better if he'd applied himself is nonsense. Few hit more balls than he does. It is fair to question whether he ought to have won more majors, because he is the best golfer of his generation, but it's not through a lack of ambition or dedication.
So can he do it again? Absolutely. But there is one thing I would encourage readers to remember, and it's that he was an 18/1 chance when denying Abraham Ancer, with a chunk of help from his level-headed caddie, on his last start here. Even without Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, each playing their pass cards this week, the field is better.
You're not going to find big misjudgements at the top of the market in tournaments as strong as this one, but McIlroy's hat-trick of wins at the course has kept his price on the shorter side of acceptability. Early quotes of 8/1 are disappearing as I type – no surprise given that he's currently 8.6 on the exchanges – and I for one don't mind missing them.
'Driving range golf' ideal for Hovland
The headline vote instead goes to VIKTOR HOVLAND, whose preferences appear to be eerily similar to those of his Ryder Cup teammate.
McIlroy and Hovland played together in the final group at St Andrews, they fought out the finish of last year's Dubai Desert Classic, and both had their chance at Bay Hill once more. Sawgrass, East Lake, Augusta National and Muirfield Village are other places where both men excel.
Certainly, Hovland is one of the handful of players to have emerged in recent years who can compete with McIlroy from tee-to-green and I really like his game for Quail Hollow, where he was third in 2021. That was his course debut and he powered through the field at the weekend, shooting rounds of 68 and 67.
Also third on his debut in the Memorial Tournament, these big, classical courses typically with four par-fives and a relentless demand for strong driving are ideal for the Norwegian, and he confirmed as much when discussing how quickly he'd adapted to this one on his only visit to date.
"Yeah, I do really like it," he said. "There's one thing I feel like, not to say anything bad about this place, but I think this place is more of kind of a driving range golf course. The fairways are not narrow and they're not wide, but it's what you see, what you get. And the greens are pretty big. It's all about just can you hit it in the centre of the face."
While those words might've made a fan of good course architecture conjure a wry smile, they speak to why this is such a good golf course for Hovland. When it comes to hitting the centre of the face, as he put it, there aren't many more reliable, and we've seen that all year – hence over the last 24 rounds played, he leads this field in strokes-gained ball-striking.
A contender in the Masters before suffering a hangover from that when holing nothing at the Heritage, we know we're taking on board the risk that his short-game costs him, but this is one of the select events in which I'm happy to do that. Bay Hill is another, and he could've won that despite of his woes around the green only to make mistakes in other departments during that frenzied finish.
Sweet 16 for Thomas?
Cameron Young has also been struggling with his chipping lately but otherwise looks an ideal type for his Quail Hollow debut. One of the longest and best drivers in the field, that club has helped power wins for McIlroy, JB Holmes, Jason Day and JUSTIN THOMAS, but at the prices I lean towards the latter as he goes in search of his 16th PGA Tour win.
Thomas was a huge disappointment at Augusta, still hanging around close to the places until capitulating during the second round. You probably saw his reaction, one of disbelief, embarrassment and outright sadness, and as a habitual Masters backer I've already asked those close to me to have a serious word in my ear next April.
But that shock to the system might just have the effect of knocking Thomas out of a bit of a funk, as it did with his friend Jordan Spieth last year. Spieth won next time out at the Heritage but Thomas isn't especially well suited to that course, so I felt his top-25 finish was a nice way to put the Masters behind him and head into a welcome break from a high-intensity start to the season.
Most encouragingly, he putted well in the final round. Aside from a big week in the Genesis Invitational, that club has been problematic all year, but he's snapped out of similar runs before, particularly in 2019 when he won three events in six having endured a miserable season before things clicked in the Playoffs and beyond.
We're in the right part of the world and under the right conditions for that to happen again, particularly as Quail Hollow was the scene of his major championship breakthrough in 2017. It's a course which demands a lot of mid-iron approach shots and one where Thomas has always driven the ball well, ever since he contended behind a much more experienced McIlroy on debut and might've challenged him but for the putter.
That club remains the risk and there's certainly no guarantee it carries him to victory as it has in both PGA Championship wins, but the way he signed off at Harbour Town gives us something to work with. He and McIlroy are in a similar boat in many ways and I'd rather take my chances with Thomas at the odds, with the reminder that he's won big tournaments at big prices when answering doubts.
I didn't think Rickie Fowler was as bad a price as some understandably appear to at 35/1 and he made the shortlist along with Tom Kim, who made headlines here in the Presidents Cup and also won in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship.
With his game back in good shape following a good Masters debut and a top-10 finish in the Zurich Classic, the superstar from Korea was tempting, but the course probably is a big longer than ideal. Kim does give away yardage off the tee and the accuracy which comes with that may not be enough, even if Abraham Ancer and Joel Dahmen have both finished runner-up here and James Hahn once beat Roberto Castro to the title.
Don't forget that while he did step up with some of the best moments of the Presidents Cup, his record was 2-3-0. There were others on that team who performed as well or better, such as Sungjae Im, Cam Davis and Si Woo Kim, and they might do so again around this course.
Double for Riley?
Keegan Bradley and Gary Woodland do have the required power but the latter was back losing two strokes per round on the greens last week, which is very difficult to overlook. Bradley on the other hand has been dependent on his short-game and I just wonder a little where exactly his swing is following some health trouble prior to the Masters, which doesn't appear to be allocated for in prices of 50/1.
Wyndham Clark and Patrick Rodgers are two in-form maidens who should go well, particularly the latter having been runner-up here in 2015, but at the prices I much prefer DAVIS RILEY.
A regular on these pages over the past 12 months, it was frustrating to miss Riley's breakthrough win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but it feels a bit like the bookmakers might have missed it, too.
Of course, they haven't done that, but perhaps there's a view that a team golf event such as that one doesn't offer much in the way of a form guide. That's probably fair, but I would argue it played some kind of part in Xander Schauffele's sensational summer in 2022 and won't be surprised if it helps nudge Riley towards fulfilling his potential after a fine rookie campaign.
This time last year he found form in no uncertain terms and a large part of the that was down to courses and conditions. Hailing from Mississippi, this formerly top-class amateur who has long been marked down for superstardom went close to winning in Florida, Louisiana and Texas twice, also playing well in Oklahoma at the PGA Championship, and then hit form again in North Carolina at the end of the season.
No surprise then that when the breakthrough came it was in New Orleans, friends and family along for the ride, and Riley was the key man in his partnership with Nick Hardy. Some of his golf on Sunday was top-class, especially a towering approach to the tough par-three which Hardy highlighted as their key moment, and Riley made clear afterwards that it felt like a real win that would do wonders for him.
Now we come to Quail Hollow, which would be an excellent fit were he to get the driver working. No doubt that club hurt him when we were on board in Texas, as it has a few times this year, but it was much better in the Zurich Classic and has produced field-leading performances a couple of times already in his burgeoning career.
His mid-to-long iron play is excellent and that was true on his last solo start in the Heritage, where he led the field in strokes-gained approach over the first two rounds, and it's not like the Florida swing before that was a write-off given he was 29th in the Honda, eighth at Bay Hill, and 19th at the Valspar Championship.
Bay Hill is another big, championship course which correlates well with this course, and I also have Muirfield Village down as broadly similar. Riley made his debut there last June and finished 13th on one of those weeks where his driver actually let him down a little, again emphasising how much he enjoys a classical set-up.
Ultimately he's a player who I believe wants a difficult, long, tree-lined golf course with bermuda greens. He has exactly that and, refreshed following a win two weeks ago, I can't resist mopping up the generally available three-figure prices. He's definitely capable if that driver contributes.
Fleetwood can contend again
Those looking for course-proven players at three-figure prices have Emiliano Grillo and Luke List to choose from, among others. Grillo arrives on the back of successive top-10s and has shown many times before that he stays hot when he gets hot; equally true is that he's shown how difficult he finds converting these spells into a victory.
List finally got off the mark at Torrey Pines last year, stumbling into a good putting week at a course which is made for him. Backers can hope for the same here because Quail Hollow is no less suitable and he drove the ball as well as anyone for 36 holes in Mexico, where he missed the cut by one after flushing it throughout the second round.
You'll need a particularly sunny disposition to find genuine cause for putting optimism where List is concerned, but there is one piece of encouraging evidence: his best numbers of the season came on bermuda greens two weeks ago in the Zurich Classic. That or his effort at Sawgrass might be enough to sneak some place money if he drives it as well as he did last week.
My preference is to stick with realistic winners and I'd include TOMMY FLEETWOOD in that category.
He was 14th here in 2021, despite arriving in poor form, and spoke of how much he enjoys a difficult, major-like test. No wonder: this is a player who has twice threatened to win the US Open, been second and fourth in the Open, and produced some of the best golf in the field to take fifth place at the PGA Championship this time last year.
Right now, his game is in a better place than it was prior to that most recent Quail Hollow appearance. His last three non-major PGA Tour starts have seen him begin the final round inside the top-five, all of them on tree-lined courses with bermuda greens. Back in February, he was 20th at Riviera which, via Max Homa, Hahn and others, looks a pretty decent pointer towards this event.
Of course, Fleetwood hasn't yet won a PGA Tour event but that was the case with Matt Fitzpatrick 12 months ago and he's played in a handful more of them. Fleetwood, who tends not to play weaker tournaments like the Sanderson Farms, Bermuda Championship or Mayakoba Classic, is more than capable of banging down that particular door, and when he does it'll likely be under tough conditions.
Having seen Fitzpatrick win again during a golden spell for Europe, Fleetwood can contend here if continuing to hit the ball as he has done the last 12 weeks. It's been particularly pleasing to see his driving improve throughout each of his last three stroke play tournaments and with Rahm and Scheffler absent, taking the same price or a shade bigger than was available for the Masters makes plenty of appeal.
Joseph Bramlett, Cameron Champ, Ben An and MJ Daffue are other big-hitting ball-strikers to consider as cheapish fantasy golf buys while first-round leader punters might want to look twice at Pierceson Coody, who was fourth after round one of the Honda and then shot the joint-lowest third round at Bay Hill.
A powerful young player who can putt the lights out, he arrives here on the back of three solid Korn Ferry Tour performances, each of them littered with bursts of red-hot scoring, and last time he played a PGA Tour event he shot an excellent second-round 69 to make the cut from an unpromising position in Texas.
At 200/1 or so he'd be one to ponder granted a decent-looking draw, but these designated events have generally gone to form bar Kurt Kitayama's impressive effort at Bay Hill, so I'll keep the speculation to a minimum. Rahm and Scheffler might be off, but there are a host of world-class contenders ready to dominate in their absence.
Posted at 1010 BST on 02/05/23
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