Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Waste Management Phoenix Open preview and best bets
It's been a profitable start to the year on the PGA Tour and our golf expert Ben Coley has five selections for the Phoenix Open.
Golf betting tips: Waste Management Phoenix Open
4pts win Justin Thomas at 14/1 (William Hill, bet365)
2pts e.w. Scottie Scheffler at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Keith Mitchell at 90/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Aaron Wise at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Apparently, the actual amount of playing time in an NFL game is 11 minutes. At the risk of alienating certain readers, I declare that this fact underlines why the biggest and best sporting event taking place in the USA this weekend is the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and not the Super Bowl which will follow its conclusion on Sunday night.
Wherever you stand on that debate, most will agree that this is a highlight on the PGA Tour schedule; a tournament whose identity has been sculpted to serve as an aperitif to the gridiron, played at a golf course made for the role of party host. Scottsdale stripped of stadiums and professionals might not be much more than an average TPC layout, but on this precise weekend it is able to come alive in a way no other place could.
If you're a regular viewer you won't need this repeating, but the closing stretch helps sharpen its edge. First there's a par-five with both fairway and green guarded by water, then the famous par-three 16th and its rowdy amphitheatre, followed by the driveable 17th where water is again in play. Perhaps the next evolution of this tournament would be to make that the 18th hole, with the current one more in keeping with the rest of a fairly unremarkable course.
As for what works here, you may not be surprised to learn that a tournament won twice by Hideki Matsuyama has been dominated by ball-strikers of his ilk. The more surprising winners, Kevin Stadler and Kyle Stanley, very much conform and so too does former play-off runner-up, Jason Dufner. Graham DeLaet came as close here as he did just about anywhere, JB Holmes is another twice champion, and Gary Woodland beat Chez Reavie in a play-off four years ago.
More specifically, approach play has very much been king: it's key to setting up chances on the par-fives but away from the excitement of the back-nine, a series of mid-to-long par-fours, made tougher by changes in recent years, require quality second shots. All told, eight of the 12 winners dating back to 2010 ranked fourth or better for the week, and a third of them led the field.
Thomas can be top dog
This is why it's always looked a likely course for JUSTIN THOMAS and, with a strong field helping hold up his price, he heads the list of selections.
I'm currently halfway through a pre-Masters piece which discusses whether Thomas might be the ultimate PGA Tour golfer of his generation, and asks whether he can shake that reputation to become one of its ultimate golfers full-stop.
In other words, this 14-time PGA Tour winner is a master at delivering across the network of TPC courses, something he started back in 2015 when winning in Malaysia, and has continued at TPC Boston, TPC Southwind and, last year, at TPC Sawgrass.
This is a slightly snide way of saying when conditions are fair, when courses are soft, there's probably nobody better at winning tournaments – and I very much include tournament favourite Jon Rahm in that. Lately we've a better candidate to stand next to Thomas in Collin Morikawa, and it's their common ground – world-class approach play – which makes them so deadly under conditions like those we'll get in Phoenix.
Thomas's win-rate has slowed over the last couple of years but that's probably as much to do with some putting troubles as anything else, and as he tackles those we might just see him enjoying a massive 2022 with Jim 'Bones' MacKay now on his bag. For the uninitiated, he was Phil Mickelson's long-time caddie, and I'm hopeful might be the difference when it comes to Thomas adding to his lone major championship which is almost five years behind him now.
Back to the present, and Thomas is the best iron player in this field at his best. He's not quite been there lately, but there were good signs towards the end of 2021, and he's improved through both starts so far this year. Fifth place in the Tournament of Champions came despite an opening 74, those nine shots he gave Cameron Smith on Thursday ultimately separating them on Sunday, and Thomas's approach play sizzled in a Saturday 61.
We've only seen him once since then, at the Farmers, where his irons were again brilliant over the first two rounds. He cooled over the weekend but that's fine with me as it looks like a backwards step, when to be frank I'm not sure Torrey Pines is really his course. Thomas has played well enough there twice now, but Scottsdale is by any and every measure a far better platform for a golfer who prefers easier conditions, whatever he might say during majors.
His record here then is very good, or at least has been after a blip at the beginning of his career. Seventeenth on debut, he followed that with two missed cuts but has since been 17th, third, third and 13th, contending a couple of times and threatening briefly to trump Webb Simpson and Tony Finau two years ago.
Thomas might well have gone on and won this title last year when fifth entering the final round, ahead of eventual champion Brooks Koepka. However, his grandfather, with whom Thomas was very close, passed away between the third and fourth rounds, and he was understandably unable to do himself justice on Sunday. It had already been a difficult start to the year professionally, and Thomas ran out of steam to finish a shot outside the top 10.
"I feel like it's definitely a good course for me," he said in 2020, when of the view he had finished third without playing anywhere near his best, and that echoed remarks made previously: "I like this course a lot," he declared in 2018. "Other than my rookie year, I played it really poorly the last two years. But when you get in the fairway it's very, very scoreable. A lot of short irons in your hand, which I feel like is a strength of mine."
That's a view I share and with Thomas having been consistent and well above-average on these greens, which he'll prefer to Torrey Pines', everything is in place for a massive title bid. I respect the favourite, Rahm, who is more likely to play well, but twice the odds about Thomas looks great business and he gets the headline vote.
Scheffler set for breakthrough?
We trapped lightning in a bottle with Matsuyama's putting in Hawaii but an improved long-game would come as no surprise at his favourite PGA Tour venue, and he's the best of the rest at the very top of the market. However, I want to stick with winner-in-waiting SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and at 30/1 he's preferred.
Scheffler produced his best Farmers performance when 20th a fortnight ago, and he did it without driving well. That's the club he's tended to rely on most and the fact he's finished 25th and 20th in two starts this year without being anywhere near his best off the tee is in some ways encouraging.
We'll need him to have dialled it back in but the rest of his game looks solid, and the fact he ranked third in strokes-gained approach at Torrey Pines really catches the eye. That was one of his career-best performances at this level and the hope is he can marry it with the sort of quality driving he produced here last year, ranking sixth on his way to seventh place.
In the process, Scheffler confirmed that Scottsdale is an ideal course for him and the way he battered Rahm in the Ryder Cup singles suggests we ought not to worry about whether he can stand tall down a fearsome closing stretch. It's something he may not have managed on a tricky course in Houston, but the pieces seem sure to fall into place sooner rather than later, and this is a really good fit.
On the subject of fearsome closing stretches, KEITH MITCHELL overcame the dreaded Bear Trap at PGA National to win the Honda Classic and could well double up here.
Mitchell is best known for his exploits across the other side of the US, but he's playing well almost wherever he tees it up at present and that includes a personal-best at Pebble Beach (12th) last week.
The exception came at the Farmers but his record there now reads 63-MC-MC-MC-MC and it's one he might consider leaving off the schedule. Phoenix, however, looks a far better fit and having been let down by his short-game on debut, he was the best driver in the field en route to a top-20 finish in 2020.
Last year's missed cut came when he was closing on a year without a top-10 finish, but he's had six of them since and was five shots clear at halfway when last he played in the desert, ultimately giving best to Rory McIlroy and Morikawa in the CJ Cup.
Outstanding off the tee there as he has been since, Mitchell's approach play at Pebble Beach was as good as it's been since he was the 54-hole leader at Quail Hollow last spring, so everything is coming together. Perhaps it'll be in Florida that we see him really step up, but these greens certainly ought not to be an excuse and he should be full of confidence.
The other I like at a big price is AARON WISE, whose sole appearance so far in 2022 saw him miss the cut at Torrey Pines.
As with Mitchell, Wise's record there (71-MC-MC-MC) is so poor that failing by a single stroke can actually be seen as a positive, particularly as he seemed in excellent touch during a first-round 67 before a couple of late mistakes at the tougher South Course ended his week early.
That was ultimately a nice way to begin the year and this long-time Las Vegas resident, who finished eighth at the Shriners and fifth in the CJ Cup last year, should improve for a return to the desert. He shot a second-round 65 here last year when his putting was truly atrocious, missed the cut despite strong ball-striking a year earlier, and ultimately boasts the strong tee-to-green game which ties winners of this together.
Key to this 25-year-old climbing back up the rankings has been the switch to a long putter which has produced really promising signs and he's far better suited to TPC Scottsdale than his modest form figures here imply.
Back to the middle portion of the betting and another with the broomhandle, Adam Scott, is very tempting. He's playing a new schedule this year which means a first start in Phoenix, has finished inside the top 10 on his last three desert appearances from Nevada to the Middle East, and generally looks to have the bit between his teeth.
Oh Canada...
That said, it's not ideal that he's making his debut at the course and with Billy Horschel's long-game seemingly short of where he'll need it to be, and Russell Henley's odds having dipped below my minimum, I'll take COREY CONNERS instead.
Henley has three top-30 finishes and nothing spectacular to show for his regular visits here, but it's an age since he arrived in form. In fact, you have to go back to 2016 for the last time he played Phoenix on the back of a cut made rather than missed, so his preparation has never been ideal.
Despite that he's managed a couple of 65s and climbed from 70th after round one to 16th after round three last year, his trademark approach play powering that performance, so there's enough in his record to suggest Scottsdale is a good fit when he's firing.
Crucially, Henley this time arrives on the back of 14th place in the AmEx, an upgrade on previous efforts there, and that was a serious effort given that he'd missed a putt for the Sony Open title a week earlier before losing a play-off.
With his game in good shape and as the leader in strokes-gained approach among this field, compensation could well await and like Mitchell, it's no bad thing that he's conquered a similarly treacherous back-nine to win the Honda – even if his performances under pressure lately leave questions to answer.
Why write the case out in full? Because it was ready, and then the required combination of 50/1 and seven or more places went. That was as low as I was prepared to go and if he's selected here, he'll be a 33/1 shot soon, and that just looks on the short-side in a field of this quality.
Conners is one I tend to shy away from as he has almost twice as many 11th-20th finishes than he does 1st-10th and is generally one who finds a way to come up just short of what's required.
However, in this case we're able to take 50/1 which is rare outside of majors, and while it reflects a couple of missed cuts, there was really nothing to worry about in his performances at the AmEx and in the Farmers Insurance Open.
Before that, Conners produced one of those familiar, charging efforts which petered out to 11th place in the Sony Open, and he can get back in the mix at a course where all eight rounds have been par or better, and where his final-round 67 last year was his best so far.
The general toughening of Scottsdale is a good thing where Conners is concerned, his sole win so far came on a similar desert course in Texas, and his long-game has fired in both previous starts here. With improvements to his putting very much noted, and many of his best efforts including that win having come on the heels of a missed cut, he looks capable of landing the place money this time.
I was also tempted to side with Adam Hadwin who, like Conners, will have eyes on the Presidents Cup later this year but does need to start contending for tournaments again if he's to achieve that goal.
Hadwin has an excellent desert record and while that's chiefly down to his record in the AmEx, he has three top-10 finishes at the Shriners, and has made six cuts in succession at Scottsdale since failing to advance on his debut back in 2015.
He has often been hanging around on the fringes without getting his irons dialled in here. It could be that he'll never manage to, but his ball-striking was very sharp at Pebble Beach last week (second strokes-gained tee-to-green) and he's made a quietly encouraging start to the year with form figures of 25-MC-16.
But for my money, this is the best PGA Tour event so far this year, certainly the one I've most looked forward to, and it ought to go broadly to form, thus reducing the temptation to shoot for the moon with players like Hadwin.
Now, which will have taken longer: reading this preview, or the actual sport in the Super Bowl?
Posted at 1940 GMT on 07/02/22
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