Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Travelers Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley added 125/1 and 55/1 placed money to last month's 80/1 PGA Tour winner at the US Open. Get his best bets for the Travelers Championship.
Golf betting tips: Travelers Championship
2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 25/1 (bet365, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Tom Kim at 40/1 (Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 45/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Stefan Jaeger at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mark Hubbard at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Where lies a designed event there ought to be a designated week off, but here we go again as the PGA Tour heads northeast to Connecticut and the Travelers Championship.
This is a fabulous little tournament with good hosts and an old, short golf course, so it's in some ways a nice comedown following a major championship. Yet I can't escape the conclusion that the value of having the world's best players in the field fluctuates according to how much they really want to be there.
In fairness to the big three, each has been to River Highlands before, though for Jon Rahm two out of three appearances came at the very beginning of his career and his only subsequent one during the pandemic, when everyone played everywhere for a time.
At least Rahm might have a freshness edge over Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, who have both played this since but will do well to go again having produced somewhat disappointing rounds, or at least unsatisfactory outcomes, when paired together on Sunday. Focus quite rightly will be on McIlroy's latest near-miss, but Scheffler will also have left LA feeling he didn't quite do himself justice come the crunch.
The market seems to acknowledge that none of this trio can be expected to be at their most effective, even if they could still win regardless. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are closer to them than they were ahead of the US Open and would both make more appeal as must Viktor Hovland, who opened with a 63 here last year and is a couple of points bigger than he was to win the US Open.
My vote however goes to COLLIN MORIKAWA, who more so than most elite players will be advantaged by this rare opportunity to play a sub-7,000 yard course, one which rewards accuracy more than it does power in relative terms.
Morikawa's schedule generally doesn't include some of the courses which would suit him best, favouring instead to follow the money, points and competition, so the elevation of this event could work in his favour.
Look at how he has played under similar circumstances and you'll find top-10s in the Sony Open and the Heritage, the latter played at a course also designed by Pete Dye, while he was runner-up at Colonial in 2020 and finished in a big tie for third place at a traditional course in the following summer's Olympic Games.
Colonial in particular rates a good form guide and Morikawa will know it, as it was Daniel Berger, a former River Highlands runner-up, who beat him in a play-off there. Berger had previously been Jordan Spieth's victim at the Travelers, Spieth of course a real specialist out at Colonial and one of many who enjoys both these old-school challenges.
Earlier this year Morikawa enhanced his Dye form book with 13th in The PLAYERS, where he led the field in strokes-gained approach and ranked third from tee to green, so I am absolutely convinced that River Highlands and its narrow, twisting nature will play to his strengths.
Last week saw Morikawa suffer one too many a slow start but still finish just outside the top 10 at home in LA, where he ranked 19th off the tee and eighth in strokes-gained approach, and given the big-hitter nature of the final US Open leaderboard that was about as encouraging an effort as I could've hoped for.
It confirmed that there were no lingering effects from the back spasms which forced his withdrawal from the Memorial Tournament, where don't forget he was about to begin the final round right in the mix, and he's putted better away from bermuda greens again lately.
As for his past experiences here, a missed cut in 2020 came less than a fortnight after his failure to finish the job at Colonial, and he was sixth at halfway on just his third professional start a year earlier. Gaining strokes through the bag there and suffering one poor round among three good ones, it's a nice pointer that River Highlands is the type of course that will bring out his best.
Should Morikawa putt well again this week then he really shouldn't be far away. Given that he's bound to be fully focused, he rates the best bet by some distance at the head of the market and can finally end his drought.
It's difficult to get away from a paint-by-numbers approach to this tournament which I suspect will lead many people to the same conclusions, such as the idea that TOM KIM is likely to thrive on debut.
That lack of River Highlands experience is a bit of a worry given the somewhat quirky nature of Dye's courses, but he's already won at two long-established PGA Tour venues and both where a relative lack of power can certainly be overcome.
Time may prove that last week's top-10 finish in the US Open is about as good as it gets for Kim in that event because, like Morikawa, he concedes a fair bit of ground to the biggest drivers off the tee and it's hard to see the USGA's formula for success changing a great deal.
Kim was statistically the worst driver in the top 15 but excellent in all other departments, ranking fourth in strokes-gained approach and showcasing an improved short-game. Now, at a course where both par-fives are within everyone's reach as is the driveable par-four, he could well get back to gaining strokes off the tee which is what he'd been doing since his previous visit to Los Angeles in February.
Should that be the case, and he continues to sparkle with his short-game, Kim might be the fourth successive winner of this event when held in its traditional slot to arrive in Cromwell on the back of a big performance in the US Open, something which ties together recent winners Chez Reavie, Harris English and Schauffele.
He's been rightly popular but there's plenty of 40/1 around and those who bet with Coral have the option of taking 12 places at a sixth of the odds.
Major players at big prices
At a similar price we have to at least consider Justin Thomas, who was reportedly flying in practise before what he called an embarrassing US Open display. There's no denying he's a shadow of his former self right now but to go from 16/1 for the Masters to 50/1 for the Travelers in two months is quite something, and it's not like he's been totally without promise.
Talk of a nagging hip injury is enough to dissuade me for now (though I will highlight the 80.0 available via the exchanges) and I'll instead side with HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, another course debutant who should enjoy the test at hand and whose health appears to be improved.
Matsuyama's Dye form away from Sawgrass is quite limited but he's been a regular threat at the home of the PGA Tour in Florida, where he has six top-25s including fifth place this year, not to mention the round that never was in 2020 when he opened with a nine-under 63.
Since this year's renewal of The PLAYERS he seems to have turned a corner from both a form and fitness perspective and while yet to match fifth place that week, he's been third at halfway in the Memorial and fifth through 54 holes of the Masters only to suffer a string of poor final rounds.
That's a bit of a concern given he's been struggling with a neck problem since early on in 2022, but I wonder whether this shorter course will help. Matsuyama says the biggest issue has been a loss of distance but that really shouldn't matter too much this week and his form at this type of venue includes wins at home and in the Sony.
Having led the field in strokes-gained approach at the US Open following weeks of solid iron play, he looks primed to take aim at these small greens and success may well depend on finding putting improvement having ranked dead last of the 65 players who made the cut last week.
That is a bit of a guessing game but Matsuyama's worst putting performances of the year beforehand had come at the Sony and the PGA Championship, which he followed by ranking fourth at Torrey Pines (10-shot turnaround) and 18th in the Memorial (eight-shot turnaround), so we at least have some precedent.
At a course I think he'll relish and on the back of his best approach figures in more than a year, Matsuyama is a class act worth chancing at 45/1.
Russell Henley followed a brilliant Masters with a slow start to the RBC Heritage, where he did well to finish 19th, and I'd worry about a repeat performance despite what are obvious claims. He has to be respected but now finds himself alongside Max Homa and in front of Kim and Thomas in the market and a shade underpriced.
Jaeger worth a shot
Few others among the fancied names make any real appeal with Sungjae Im seemingly off the boil and both Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood potentially in need of a break, so instead there are a wealth of appealing options at three-figure prices to consider.
It's true that most of these designated events have gone to the form book but we have also witnessed breakthrough wins for 200/1 shot Kurt Kitayama plus last week's hero Wyndham Clark at 66s, and this course is a definite leveller as might be the calendar.
Pick of the lot for my money is STEPHAN JAEGER, who has been playing the best golf of his career throughout 2023.
Jaeger is ranked 55th in the world by DataGolf on account of his improved performances and anyone who has made 13 of their last 15 cuts, despite often putting poorly, is in full control of their long-game.
There are signs that this once excellent putter has emerged from a slump, too, as having lost strokes from the second to the 11th of these 15 appearances in 2023, he's now gained strokes in three of his last four outings.
With his driving, approach play and work around the greens all above-average, the German could be a major factor at a course where he was 30th on debut in 2019 and then hit the ball just as well on his return three years later only to narrowly miss the cut.
The fact that he's here again instead of taking part in the BMW International Open, held in his home city of Munich, may have as much to do with the purse as any notion that the course suits, but we know already that it does and he looks a live player at 150/1 and upwards.
So does ANDREW PUTNAM, whose powderpuff driving was always going to make the US Open a struggle and yet he was inside the top 20 after rounds one and two before signing for a respectable share of 43rd.
Before that, Putnam finished fifth in elite company at the Memorial Tournament and he'd been 10th through 54 holes at Colonial, just as he had been in Mexico prior to the PGA Championship. Throw in the Texas Open where he sat 12th at the same stage and he's threatened the place money regularly of late.
Having started the year with fourth place in the Sony Open and ended the previous one contending for both the RSM Classic and the ZOZO Championship, here's a player who is at the very top of his game and who now gets to play the sport on his terms, at a short course where he's made all three cuts despite twice putting poorly.
The fact that he was able to rank fourth in strokes-gained approach on each of his first two visits is really encouraging and having pounded fairways all year, he might just need to figure out these greens to once again find himself in the heat of battle on Sunday.
It's true that he can look a little unconvincing at times when presented with an opportunity, but that's a chance we can afford to take at the prices, with these bentgrass/poa annua putting surfaces unlikely to fox Washington-born Putnam for a third time.
Inspired Hubbard in the form of his life
Lee Hodges and Nate Lashley also made some appeal, particularly the former. Lashley on the other hand has been one of those players I can't catch right and while these are ideal conditions, he'll probably drive himself into one too many trouble spots again. Of the two, Hodges has the greater scope and played nicely on his course debut.
However I just prefer MARK HUBBARD, another neat and tidy golfer whose approach play and putting have carried him to top-10 finishes at the Charles Schwab and in Canada recently.
In fact, if you isolate shorter courses, Hubbard's form since April features 11th at the Heritage then those finishes of ninth and sixth, the rest of his form – while still solid – coming on much longer layouts.
He's absolutely at the top of his game, ranking inside the top three in strokes-gained approach in three of his last six appearances and beating the field each and every time, which in turn has allowed his reliable short-game to shine.
Only off the tee has he struggled and Hubbard isn't always the most accurate of the shorter hitters on the PGA Tour, but if he can compete in that department this week then every other facet of his game certainly should be able to.
Another who should have no issue with these putting surfaces, the other aspect of his profile I like is that one of his closest friends on the circuit, Nick Taylor, won the Canadian Open last time out.
Perhaps the magic will rub off on Hubbard but regardless, here's an outsider playing some of the best golf of his life and now heading to a course where he's so far never failed to make the weekend.
Let's hope that sequence continues despite the stronger company and the way Hubbard is playing, he can aim even higher than that.
Former winner Russell Knox hit his irons superbly last time out only to miss the cut as his putting woes continue. He's far from the worst 1000/1 chance you'll find and there are cases to be made for the likes of Dylan Wu and Ludvig Aberg, the latter now offered at three-figure prices despite an excellent professional debut in Canada.
Two of Aberg's college rivals have begun their own professional careers with Korn Ferry Tour wins over the past fortnight and were it not for the fact that his prodigious driving might not be as effective around here, this superstar Swede might also have been worth chancing.
As it is we should be patient with him and focus on a very specific type of player here at the Travelers, where it's fair to say plenty of people could've done with a break.
Posted at 1100 BST on 20/06/23
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