Ben Coley's golf betting tips: TOUR Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley previews the TOUR Championship, the final event of the PGA Tour season that should end with one of golf's biggest names crowned FedEx Cup champion.
Golf betting tips: TOUR Championship
2pts e.w. Sungjae Im lowest 72-hole score at 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
2pts e.w. Tom Kim lowest 72-hole score at 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
The nature of any Playoffs system, including the PGA Tour's ill-fitting attempt at one, is that we don't always end up with the best fighting to be crowned the best. Even the FedEx Cup and its boosted final few events doesn't do that, not really, although the concept of 'best' over the course of an entire year's golf is naturally fluid.
This year, however, the computer has spat out the standout four players on the PGA Tour. Scottie Scheffler remains the benchmark and, just as he did in 2022, will start the TOUR Championship with a two-shot lead. Viktor Hovland is in second after his sensational 61 to win the BMW. Rory McIlroy has had a chance to win both events in the Playoffs and is therefore third. Jon Rahm couldn't fall much further than fourth.
Reducing the number of tournaments from four to three has played its part and we are undeniably left with the best-case scenario. Unfortunately it guarantees precisely nothing in the way of entertainment. Scheffler might shoot 63-63 and lead by 15 shots entering the weekend. If he does let the others into it again, this will remain contrived nonsense which should be beneath the pinnacle of any sport.
By now you'd think they'd realise that, thank heavens, golf is not F1. It's not NFL. It's a sport with mass playing appeal but with a limited audience when it comes to watching, sort of like fishing in reverse except not a complete waste of everyone's time. For my money, they should try to present this sport to its adoring fans properly before attempts to win over naysayers are allowed to cheapen it.
As for a bet, anyone who backed Scheffler at a generous-looking 5/2 last year may wince at the prospect of going in again at 6/4 this time. He's improved a little bit since, despite the best efforts of his putter, but the standard of those in closest pursuit is higher. McIlroy gave Scheffler six shots and a beating last year despite beginning the tournament with a triple-bogey. From three shots closer, he'll love his chances and appeals more at 7/2.
Hovland is buzzing, Rahm is always dangerous, and one of this quartet really ought to win. Golf's big three were priced at around the 5/6 mark at the beginning of this trio of events and are now 1/3 and change. If anyone can topple all three, it's surely only Hovland, who is set to make it a big four.
McIlroy at 7/2 and Rahm at 8/1 would appeal most of all but I'm more interested in the 72-hole scoring market, even if it can be a headache to follow. Last year's was won by McIlroy and he is now a three-time course winner seeking his fourth FedEx Cup, but he's two points shorter this time and talk of more putter experimentation is just enough of a concern to overlook the man they all have to beat in pure scoring terms.
Sungjae to shine
Perhaps, with these four likely to be embroiled in a battle for the however-many-millions bonus, there is an opportunity for somebody to outplay them from further back. And perhaps that person is SUNGJAE IM, who almost did it last year.
Since his madcap decision to fly home to South Korea a week before the PGA Championship and then bomb out completely at Oak Hill, Im has been steadily improving. His long-game in particular has turned a corner of late and finishes of 14-6-7 are the result, with last week's particularly eye-catching at a long course where he'd been 56th of 70 before.
Although it was Im's short-game that kept him competitive in the first round of the BMW Championship, after that he really clicked into gear, ranking ninth, fourth and fifth in strokes-gained approach before 12 of 14 fairways was enough to be the second-best driver in the field on Sunday.
All told he finished fifth in the tee-to-green charts and just outside the top five overall after a solid but unspectacular putting week at a course which ought not to suit nearly as much as East Lake, which is also long but has always given the straight hitters more than a fighting chance. Ultimately, it's driving well that matters, however you do that.
Im has been a rock-solid driver throughout his PGA Tour career because, like Hovland, he's accurate as well as more powerful than perhaps you'd think. If that club fires in the way it did on Sunday, he will have an ideal platform as he seeks to emulate last season's effort, when second only to McIlroy in overall scoring and almost pinching the outright prize, which would've been a bit silly to say the least given his body of work.
With an excellent record at another Donald Ross course, Sedgefield, it shouldn't be a big surprise that Im has liked it here since a strong start to his debut. In 2020 he was the halfway leader (in scoring terms, if not in reality) and while quiet a year later, he returned to almost pick the pockets of both McIlroy and Scheffler and land the money in 2022.
Im's US base is here in Atlanta so he might just have benefited from that, something he's referenced previously, and while he's capable on all surfaces he's most likely to putt the lights out on greens like these. From eight shots back he's not likely to find himself in the real heat of battle but that may if anything help him land the low 72 of the week.
Kim can overshadow Ryder Cup hopefuls
I'm curious to know how much attention Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson will pay to non-handicap scores. You'd think quite a bit, given that it offers the better form guide ahead of his post-tournament wildcard announcement, but I've a nagging doubt as to whether things will be that simple. Anyway, how much should it matter if someone with no hope of winning freewheels to a good score?
Theoretically, the likes of Sam Burns (10 back), Tony Finau (8), Keegan Bradley (7) and Rickie Fowler (7) could benefit from focusing on the task at hand away from the spotlight and Fowler in particular made some sense. He won at another Ross-designed course earlier this summer, part of a strong set of results on more traditional layouts, and his approach play last week was as good as it's been since.
Russell Henley has an excellent record at the course and hails from Georgia so he too could be dangerous from seven behind. The trouble is, Henley isn't necessarily the sort I'd expect to thrive under the additional pressure of imminent Ryder Cup picks and while I doubt he's going to be heading to Rome in a month, he will believe he can still turn Johnson's head. Maybe that will work against him.
Schauffele booked his seat on the plane last week, not that it was really in doubt, and is an obvious option around a course he adores, but 12/1 looks short enough given that he was a bit sloppy at times and I'll chance newcomer TOM KIM instead.
Like his compatriot, Kim is among the straightest hitters in this field and he's played well throughout the last month or so, finishing sixth and second in the UK before 24th and 10th across the last fortnight.
With the first of those Playoff performances allaying concerns over the injury he picked up in the Open, Kim went on to produce some excellent golf under less-than-ideal conditions last week, when his 11-under par weekend was better than all bar that of the eventual champion, Hovland.
Hovland himself won after powering through the field a week earlier and Kim could produce something similar if he's able to build on Sunday's best-of-the-day 63 and a back-nine 29 which was overshadowed by the Norwegian's stunning 28.
Early indications are that Ross courses like this suit, as he was seventh in Detroit before winning at Sedgefield and actually struck his ball really well for the 36 holes he played at Oak Hill, and from eight behind the leaders he can reward backers in the lowest 72-hole score market.
We're still learning about the dynamics of this event, and Patrick Rodgers' admission that feeling he couldn't really achieve much last week resulted in him checking out mentally is worth considering. In what's set to be oppressive heat, there could be some low-ranking types here who struggle to keep going at the end of a long, hard year.
Adam Schenk is an obvious candidate, his goal of making East Lake now very much achieved, but opposing such players is difficult given that they're all sent out in FedEx Cup order. Schenk begins the week with Collin Morikawa and I'm in no rush to take 4/6 about the latter winning their two-ball, a match without any real meaning.
I will therefore return to the idea that Im and Kim could freewheel to the sort of low-teens total that could do the job, noting that in each year so far one of the five players who began the week on two-under climbed inside the overall top-five.
For the record, they're priced at 100/1 and 125/1 respectively in the FedEx Cup betting if you fancy either to do just that, but any temptation is quickly extinguished by a look at those names up at the top. Bring on the Ryder Cup and away with this silliness.
Posted at 1000 BST on 22/08/23
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