The wind is set to pick up at Sawgrass where The PLAYERS Championship is nicely poised. Ben Coley previews today's third round.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS round three
2pts Kim, Jaeger and Straka to win their two-balls at 4/1 (General)
Some big names fell by the wayside at The PLAYERS, as they always do, but the tournament could hardly be set up better with two rounds to go. The joint-leaders, Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia, are two of the most promising youngsters the game has to offer, they're followed by 2019 champion and clear favourite Rory McIlroy, and the likes of Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood are in the top 10.
Following a remarkable 62 from Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele's closing birdie to extend his streak of made cuts and a couple of late par saves to keep the two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler just about in touch, Saturday's third round can't come soon enough. By the end of it, we should have a better idea of who is going to win the thing.
One striking feature about the two-balls draw is how many pairings are made up of quite similar players. Whether it's the fairways-and-greens styles of Russell Henley and Corey Conners, the power of Rico Hoey and Jesper Svensson or the simple fact that Cameron and Carson share the surname Young, many of these match-ups are so similar that they're quite difficult to unravel.
Maybe the best way to do so is to acknowledge that those with an early-late draw over the first two rounds were at a disadvantage, even if it did narrow slightly come Friday evening. Nevertheless, at almost two shots it has created quite a lopsided front end of the leaderboard and those who made the weekend in spite of it can be upgraded.
Given the first in, last out nature of the draw, pairings who had opposing sets of tee-times are limited to the following, with the AM-PM player listed first:
- Dahmen vs Kuchar
- Highsmith vs Gerard
- Jaeger vs McCarty
- Hossler vs McGreevy
- Straka vs Hoffman
- Smalley vs Morikawa
It won't surprise you that I'm in no rush to take on Morikawa while Joe Highsmith and Ryan Gerard are quite hard to split, as are Beau Hossler and Max McGreevy. The former's experience might count for something there and I was a tad surprised to see him priced as a small underdog, but there's no doubt it's McGreevy who has struck it better so far.
With Joel Dahmen's putter always a worry and again, slight surprise that he's put in as favourite in places to beat former Sawgrass winner Matt Kuchar, the two I like are probably the most obvious ones: STEPHAN JAEGER and SEPP STRAKA.
Jaeger suffered a poor back-nine on Friday, missing several drives to the right, and will need to tighten up off the tee. The rest of his game though looks sharp and has done for a while now, unlike McCarty who has gone badly off the boil since winning his first PGA Tour title in Utah.
That's one of just two instances of him beating Jaeger on the seven occasions they've played in the same tournament and it was in fact Jaeger who chased him home. This year the German has been dominant, winning the head-to-head three times (one tie) and shooting the lowest single-round score nine in 14.
McCarty has hit it very well so far but this is a whole new experience for him and Jaeger is a strong fancy at just a shade of odds-on.
Straka is up against Charley Hoffman, whose stunning morning round cost us yesterday. Hoffman struck it well, too, but also gained three strokes around the green, the best in the field, and I'd expect Straka's fairways-and-greens game to prove too strong on a breezy Saturday, where his Open second and Honda Classic first might prove handy form pointers.
The Fleetwood-Morikawa-McIlroy treble pays about 3/1 for those who expect class to count but that wind and the volatile nature of Sawgrass is enough to dissuade me, especially as I remain a big fan of Smalley.
Earlier on, those looking for a mismatch in tee-to-green play so far need look no further than TOM KIM versus Mac Meissner. Kim ranks third in strokes-gained ball-striking to Meissner's 105th and, proven in the wind thanks to a couple of strong Open performances, could look a bit of a steal at the odds.
Indeed given that the wind is set to pick up as the day progresses he might be worth a small, speculative go to shoot the lowest third-round score, which could just require the warming of his putter to be competitive. There are plenty of good options among the earliest to the tee and they could be finishing just as the wind reaches its peak, but for now only BoyleSports offer the market.
Posted at 0750 GMT on 15/03/25
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