Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley previews The PLAYERS Championship at the iconic TPC Sawgrass, where Max Homa and Jordan Spieth feature among six selections.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship
3pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Max Homa at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Brian Harman at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Aaron Rai at 200/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
'If he putts well, he wins' is an overused phrase in the sport of golf, even if it isn't used all that often. Anyone who follows the game will appreciate that it is too simplistic, that it fails to account for that ruinous mistake, the misfortune of a bad draw, or one of the thousands of other ways an otherwise exceptional display can come undone.
If Scottie Scheffler putts well, however, he really does win. That was reaffirmed by his wide-margin romp at Bay Hill, but had been clear for some time. In fact, since the beginning of 2022, nobody has beaten Scheffler when he's been among the top 20 putters in the field. Thankfully for his rivals and maybe even the sport, that's happened just five times, six if we count the Hero, seven if we assume he was in the Match Play.
The eighth title he's collected during this formidable stretch was the 2023 PLAYERS Championship, where Scheffler ranked a mere 47th in putting – and won by five shots. Through this we can establish a better maxim for the PGA Tour of today: as long as Scottie Scheffler doesn't putt really badly, he's going to be difficult to beat.
The narrative, of course, is that he has now solved his putting woes thanks to a switch to the mallet and removal of an alignment line on his golf ball. Having done so prior to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scheffler got better with every round and ranked first on Sunday. Turn the best ball-striker on the PGA Tour into the best putter and you really can begin to talk in terms of dominance, which we've not been able to do for at least a decade.
Will it last, and whether it's advisable to bet on it lasting, are extremely difficult questions to answer. Perhaps the sensible approach is to only attempt short-term conclusions, and take note of two key facts: one is that he's won the Phoenix Open and the Arnold Palmer twice each. The other is that his wins have come in bursts: four in six in the spring of '22, two in four in the spring of '23, and now two in seven since the Ryder Cup.
Put all of that together and you have a compelling argument and I won't waste long arguing both sides of the price. Scheffler merits it, and those who wish to simplify this tournament to a confident each-way bet have strong grounds for doing so. But it is Cheltenham Festival week, and just as no trainer should run scared of one horse, no golf bettor should take anything for granted.
That the PLAYERS Championship title has never been successfully defended shouldn't really bother anyone too much, though it does have something to do with the course I suspect. TPC Sawgrass, Pete and Alice Dye's iconic course that is the home of the PGA Tour, catches everyone out eventually.
It's probably not as difficult as its reputation – every winner since 2009 has reached double-digits under-par – but it is penal, dramatically so throughout a closing stretch which may be unrivalled in terms of the marriage of course and situation. Holes 16, 17 and 18 all threaten absolute disaster, but as Rickie Fowler so famously demonstrated, they can also provide opportunities enough for someone to steal this title through sheer brilliance.
Home in on Max
What perhaps makes the game's elite so uncomfortable, along with the fact that this was Dye's ambition, is that driver is taken out of their hands quite a bit. When the event was held in May, accuracy off the tee was vitally important and while I suspect we're seeing that change in March, it still trumps power. Critics would probably argue that too many shots are played from the same spot and that's fair, but it does level the playing field at least.
That's why we've had some big-priced winners, Si Woo Kim in particular, as well as several surprising contenders. Suddenly, the thing that the best golfers so often do better than the rest is nullified, and the gap between them is therefore reduced.
So what does it take? There have been some with dynamite short-games, Webb Simpson and Cam Smith in particular, but I'd still consider approach play to be king. Since the move to March, all four champions have ranked between fourth and sixth in that category.
MAX HOMA's approach play got better with every round last week and he could prove one of the key dangers to Scheffler if he's able to bring it with him to Sawgrass.
Eighth place at Bay Hill was Homa's best finish of the season so far and it's a sign of how far he's come that, despite some decent results at Riviera (16th) and Torrey Pines (13th), he was extremely disappointed with how he played out on the west coast.
When asked on Sunday to reflect on the improvements made following work with his coach, Mark Blackburn, he said: "Really pleased. Wish I would have made more of a push on the weekend, but from how poor my golf game felt on the west coast to how good it felt this week, I'm really intrigued and optimistic about that."
Homa of course has done most of his winning in California, but the way he performed in the Open (10th) and the Ryder Cup, before winning the Nedbank in South Africa, confirms him a world-class golfer under any conditions – and his record in Florida in fact offers plenty of encouragement.
All told, he has eight top-25s in nine appearances since 2020 and two of them have come here, including a fantastic share of 13th two years ago given that he was on the wrong side of the draw. Sixth last year was another step forward and his approach play has underpinned everything he's done at a course he says he really enjoys.
Not everybody does so that's a tick in the box and with his putting having improved throughout each of his three appearances in The PLAYERS, Homa, who is putting beautifully at the moment, looks to have plenty in his favour at a nice price.
So does JORDAN SPIETH, who I've always felt is a potential winner of this event despite a patchy record since finishing fourth on his first visit a decade ago.
In fact patchy is flattering, as he did nothing from 2015 to 2022, but last year's 19th was a step back in the right direction and he's since made further improvements in his game.
Spieth's driving let him down at Bay Hill but the numbers alone don't tell the full story, as it was just a couple of bad shots at the wrong time that undermined some good work generally. He was for the most part accurate, ranking 12th in fairways, but the misses were heavily penalised.
When last he played a shorter course, Pebble Beach, he was excellent off the tee and with fewer drivers at Sawgrass, and in the main less punishment for the odd stray one, I could well see him turning that aspect of his game around very quickly.
If he can, then his strengths can do the work and he's been sixth and 11th in strokes-gained approach in two of his last three PLAYERS starts. What he hasn't done is lit up the greens, but four of his five appearances so far in 2024 hint that he's back to something like his best in that department, too.
Spieth certainly has form in the places you'd like to see it for a potential Sawgrass winner, particularly with victories at Dye's River Highlands and Harbour Town. Second place at Sedgefield, where various PLAYERS champions have also been successful, is another positive along with second at Whistling Straits and ninth at Crooked Stick.
Tactical golf where hitting approaches to the right places is just what Spieth wants and precisely why he's excelled at Augusta. Sawgrass is different in many ways but similar in some and my view is that he's far better suited to it than some of his past results might suggest.
He does lack a high-class win since returning to elite levels a couple of years ago, but without going over old ground we have to accept that this is a weaker renewal of The PLAYERS. He's well up to contending and, if he can avoid big mistakes off the tee, this might be the week when it all falls together.
No doubting Thomas
Back up the market and I was very tempted to give Rory McIlroy another go at a few points bigger than last week. For the first two and a half rounds I felt everything that could go wrong did go wrong, then came a dazzling burst which suddenly reignited his prospects, only for them to be extinguished very quickly on Sunday.
It's easy to identify the problem, which was his approach play, and he once again led the field off the tee. McIlroy is a past champion who has hit it well enough to win this more than once, is favoured by the move from May to March, and from the same marquee group as Spieth, a better start could be all it takes.
On balance though the one thing he's doing to an exceptional standard could be shackled around here, and I have to opt for someone who really does relish the unique challenge of the Stadium Course: JUSTIN THOMAS.
His only misstep this year came when selected at Riviera but 12th place at Bay Hill, in a tournament he's only played three times on the PGA Tour, was a swift return to form and saw him strike the ball particularly well over the first 36 holes.
He'll have been frustrated not to have seen it out better but Thomas will also know that he returns to Sawgrass with his best chance to win it since he did that with a sparkling weekend in 2021, when we were on at around the 20/1 mark.
His title defence was undone by the draw and his next go by the putter, but he's been better with that club lately, producing five top-30 putting performances in seven dating back to his return to form in the Wyndham Championship.
Truth be told he's not putted the lights out here since 2016 but he may not need to in order to contend again, such has been the quality of his long-game here. With his driving good at Bay Hill, Thomas looks the most likely winner beyond the big two and is backed accordingly, in preference to McIlroy.
The only other elite player who made real appeal was Collin Morikawa, who often wins when it's least expected. He'll need to turn things around after shooting 80 last Friday, but had been solid in round one only to be derailed by hitting his first shot of round two out of bounds.
Forgive him that and this precise operator has enough in his favour, but I would be worried about his short-game in general. The one time he's putted well in Florida saw him win at the Concession, but even more so than Scheffler I'd be wary of relying on that happening again.
Open champion an each-way threat
Tony Finau appealed on price grounds as you'll seldom see him at 50/1 and he's been hitting the ball well, but this probably isn't his course and his putting is equally worrisome, so Open champion BRIAN HARMAN is preferred.
Harman actually hasn't been at his best on the greens lately but anyone who recalls that Hoylake romp will recognise his potential to improve, and he was pretty deadly just a couple of months ago in Hawaii.
Fifth and 18th to begin the year, he predictably dipped during the west coast swing and a trip to the Middle East, but was back on track when back on the east coast with 12th place at Bay Hill.
Harman's irons were excellent at a course where his lack of power is a handicap, whereas here at Sawgrass he's consistently gained strokes off the tee thanks to his precision. That's meant that when the putter has turned up, he's been thereabouts: eighth in 2015, eighth again in 2019, and third in 2021.
This time last year he'd been badly out of form but still avoided a hat-trick of missed cuts and Harman's record at River Highlands is extremely encouraging, as he has five top-10s in six years there. So are a couple of top-10s at Sedgefield and Harbour Town, and he hit the ball really well at Kiawah Island, too.
To my eye he has his ideal conditions this week and at 50/1 and upwards rates a bet.
There are plenty of appealing options at three-figure prices, too many to list in fact, but my favourite among them carries greater risk than some but with much greater upside, and that's JUSTIN ROSE.
We've not yet had an English winner of The PLAYERS and it's asking a lot for it to happen now, given Tyrrell Hatton's defection, the form of Matt Fitzpatrick, and a shocking performance from Tommy Fleetwood at Bay Hill.
Rose though was doing OK there before three-putting the 10th and 11th holes on Friday, latterly from inside five feet. That seemed to bleed into the 12th hole, where he was greenside in two shots and walked off having carded an eight.
Recovering from that to contend for this won't be straightforward but it was just a mad hour of short-game silliness and I was quite encouraged by his ball-striking, particularly in round two.
The putter was ultimately to blame and he can throw in the odd shocker, but Rose had gained strokes in every previous start this year and it's only three starts since he sat 11th through 54 holes when the event at Pebble Beach was abandoned.
His strong Dye record includes a win at Louisiana, two top-25s from two at Crooked Stick, 14th and 25th in his only recent appearances at Harbour Town, three top-10s at River Highlands, two top-10s from two visits to Kiawah Island and fourth place at Whistling Straits, and he's got better here down the years including eighth in 2019 and sixth in 2023.
The latter came about despite a poor putting week and I just wonder whether he might manage his way around here well enough to outclass a few of those at shorter odds, perhaps even getting into the mix as he's still proven capable of doing in the biggest events.
That T6 also followed a pair of missed cuts and Rose might do as Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry and Will Zalatoris have all done lately, and get back into the world's top 50 having just fallen out of it.
Rai smiling at familiar Sawgrass
Finally, while I'm interested in Taylor Moore to some degree given an encouraging effort last year and his preference for classical courses, I prefer AARON RAI at 150/1 and upwards.
Rai was 19th on his PLAYERS debut having sat fourth entering the final round, and he'd not exactly been lighting it up throughout the early stages of 2023.
Perhaps that effort had something to do with the fact that he's chosen to base himself at Sawgrass since moving to the US, practising at the course and even buying a house five minutes down the road. For a debutant, he knew plenty about what was required.
One of the most precise ball-strikers around and having beaten elite Europeans for his two wins on the DP World Tour, Rai's form book on the PGA Tour underlines the suitability of this type of test, having been third in Canada, ninth in Detroit and 12th at Colonial.
Since those efforts he's chased home Ryan Fox at Wentworth and I quite like how he's played since the PGA Tour season began, with 19 rounds of par or better from 21 played, not always under conditions he'd consider favourable.
That's true of the last two tournaments he's played in, both on wide-open resort courses, and while the field here is much stronger, the nature of the test ought to bring his key strengths to the fore. An above-average week with the putter on greens he knows well, and Rai could contend again.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 11/03/24
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