After a 20/1 winner on the PGA Tour last week, Ben Coley looks ahead to The American Express where Jon Rahm is a worthy favourite.
Golf betting tips: The American Express
2pts e.w. Abraham Ancer at 30/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Talor Gooch at 30/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Si-Woo Kim at 55/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 55/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kramer Hickok at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 200/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Time may prove that trying to get Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay beat in The American Express was something of a fool's errand. Rahm started with a round of 62 on his way to victory here in 2018, Cantlay closed with a 61 when runner-up a year ago, and both blew away the cobwebs with similarly strong starts to the campaign in Hawaii. They're ranked first and fourth in the world and the next man in the list concedes the benefit of a run-out, with Scottie Scheffler appearing for the first time since the Hero World Challenge.
With star names in action across both of the main men's tour events and the LPGA Tournament of Champions thrown in for good measure, there will be punters playing cross doubles and trebles in the hope that class counts. There may even be some who are willing to throw in Paul Casey, a 5/2 chance to win in Singapore, and it's certainly easy to envisage a week which runs to form. Jim Furyk on the Champions Tour for the five-fold, anyone?
The main threat in Abu Dhabi comes in the form of the weather, but here in the California desert there's nothing significant to hold against the favourites. If anything, the multi-course format and addition of amateurs adds some volatility at least, and with La Quinta back alongside PGA West's Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament courses, the winner will have to demonstrate a little more flexibility after last year's two-course edition.
It's certainly true that we've had some massive upsets in what was once the Bob Hope Classic, with Adam Long stunning everyone with a closing birdie to beat two big names and Andrew Landry returning to form to succeed him a year later. Jason Dufner was a big price, world number 296 Brian Gay ended a four-year winless run here, and Jhonattan Vegas scored on just his second start as a PGA Tour member back in 2011.
We therefore have a conflict, between the difficult-to-predict nature of the event, and two players who are reliable, in-form, love this test and, frankly, were two of the standout three players in the world last season. What gives is hard to say and I will confess to being sorely tempted to bite the bullet and side with Rahm. He begins his bid for a second win here at La Quinta on Thursday, in a good group alongside Tony Finau, and those taking him on will have to hope for a sluggish start.
Part of the reason Rahm and Cantlay like it here is that driving the ball well is more important than you might think, given we're talking about a shootout on resort courses which have been softened up for the amateurs. It's right there in the roll-of-honour, though: Vegas, Dufner, Landry, Hudson Swafford, Rahm himself and Si-Woo Kim, these are all players whose strongest club has so often been driver, and even Long ranked 47th in total driving during the season of his shock victory.
Rewind further back and Dufner was 20th during his winning year, and if you scroll up to the top five you'll find Swafford (third) and Landry (fifth), who between them finished first and second in the following two renewals before Landry gained his revenge in 2020. Scott Pinckney's name stands out in 10th, as one who never delivered on his promise yet showed more in this than just about anywhere else.
Last year's winner Kim ranked 58th and one way or another, this antiquated statistical category, which has been rightly displaced by strokes-gained data, still offers a very good guide to this event in particular. To some extent that's because unbridled power, the best way to gain strokes off the tee, is not much of an advantage across these three courses unless married with accuracy. Total driving's blend of those two elements might, for once, be a better pointer.
Could Abraham be the Ancer?
In ranking 46th and 63rd respectively last season, ABRAHAM ANCER and TALOR GOOCH underlined that when length isn't a significant factor, they can both be competitive with the former in particular one of the best accuracy-first drivers on the circuit.
Ancer has placed here in each of the last two renewals and having sided with him at the same price in 2021, I want to give him another go. He's improved since, winning a World Golf Championship title and competing with the world's best in events including the CJ Cup, played on a desert course not dissimilar to these, and a second title may not be too far away.
It's fair to say it's been a slow start to the year but Kapalua isn't at all right for his game and while Waialae perhaps ought to be, it's so far foxed him. The Mexican has struggled badly on the greens in Hawaii but it's not been anything like as big an issue at PGA West, with his 2020 stats in particular of real encouragement.
His Sony Open form over these last two years read 29-38 and this time he'll have to recover from a rare missed cut, however his ball-striking stats were solid and significantly improved from his comeback. There would have to be a worry that his putting troubles now extend to three starts but he has for a long time been volatile, producing big turnarounds from one week to the next on several occasions last year.
When Ancer clicks on the greens he's a threat and that's a distinct possibility here, and I also like the fact a couple of his Presidents Cup teammates have won the first two tournaments on the schedule. Ancer tees off with another of them, Sungjae Im, on Thursday, and they could well spur each other on a little.
As for Gooch, the first glimpse of what he might go on to achieve came here in 2019, when he led the field in scoring on the tougher, Pete Dye-designed course which is in play for two of the four rounds, and eventually finished an excellent fourth.
Scoring on the Stadium Course has actually held him back in two subsequent visits but that means he's shown that he can handle all three and in finishing 17th and 21st, he's built himself a very solid bank of form here. Whether because of the courses or the format, we've seen many genuine specialists emerge down the years and along with Ancer, he looks like he could be another.
Again like Ancer, since last year's renewal he's become a PGA Tour winner via the multi-course RSM Classic, and he's made a typically solid start to the season. Gooch will need to get his approach work back to where it was towards the back end of 2021 but the signs are promising and this is an excellent opportunity to quickly double up, something Jason Kokrak, Patton Kizzire, Dufner and Jimmy Walker have all managed having been longstanding maidens.
Keen not to repeat Kim mistake
Gooch lost a ridiculous 5.7 strokes around the greens at the Stadium Course last year which can be called both destructive and anomalous, and since then he's played really well at its sister course at Sawgrass. That helps tie him in with defending champion SI-WOO KIM, who I'm hopeful can go close once more.
Missing Kim was the main regret of 2021, although I'm long past complaining given subsequent events which reached a new level of absurdity via Hideki Matsuyama's putter last week. Still, Kim had three paragraphs dedicated to him in last year's preview before pivoting to Zach Johnson, which was a very bad decision.
He could though pay us back as he's been driving the ball really well and key to getting him to produce one of his good weeks with his irons is often the venue. Kim is a real horses-for-courses player who has three top-fives in four returns since winning the Wyndham, started well in defence of his PLAYERS title and was ninth there last season, and had a top-10 finish to his name prior to collecting this title.
Last season he produced an abject display of ball-striking at Southwind only to improve to the tune of five shots per round back at Sedgefield a week later, and he ranked second in approaches at Sawgrass one week on from a withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer. Consistency is not a strong suit, but finding his game under the right circumstances is, and so often that ties in with Pete Dye whose courses Kim seems to love.
It's therefore a slight negative that he gets just 36 holes at the Stadium Course but his preparation has been pretty similar and at 50/1 and bigger, the Korean is a definite threat.
Another positive which covers these three selections is the fact they've played this year. The only winner of this event on their post-Christmas return since 2010 was Bill Haas when he took the title for a second time, and it's easy to believe that those returning to action here might just struggle to slot straight into tournament mode, especially with two amateurs in the group and long rounds guaranteed.
Desert comfort earns Fowler the vote
Such trends need qualifying and once again, the better players in this field have been out already. However, there are 16 of them trading at 100/1 and shorter who return to action and all have that question to answer – in fact I put a line through every one of them only for RICKIE FOWLER to somehow escape.
Fowler clearly comes with massive risks attached but we all saw how well he played on his last start in the desert, driving the ball impeccably and threatening to win for the first time since 2019. After that he was down the field in the ZOZO Championship before finishing T40 in Mexico but it all goes down as encouraging as he looks to get his career back on-track.
He's long been a brilliant desert golfer, winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in 2016, the Phoenix Open in 2019, going close at Redstone in Texas and reaching the semi-finals of the Match Play when it was at Dove Mountain in Arizona. Way back at the start of his career he was second at Grayhawk, announcing himself on the PGA Tour.
Here at PGA West, he played just twice (2010 and 2014) during the first decade of his career, but has visited in 2020 and 2021 and with some success, driving the ball especially well and finishing 10th and 21st. Given his struggles, particularly last year, these are seriously eye-catching performances and they've come without much help from the putter, which at times in his career has been a massive strength.
With his driving seemingly improved of late (leads total driving over the last three months) there are enough positives to cling to and I really like the fact that some of his best efforts last year came here, at TPC San Antonio, Muirfield Village, and The Summit Club. That's three desert locations and in Muirfield Village, one that correlates quite nicely with this for reasons which are less clear but can probably be traced back to the driver.
The risks are self-evident but Fowler has made progress, he's a new dad, and I am willing to chance him here at the prices on offer – though he might be one to leave alone if dipping below 50s.
Will there be another surprise winner?
Options at big prices were plentiful, but most of those on my list attracted early support – Adam Svensson, Hayden Buckley, Lucas Glover – while I wanted three-figure prices about Russell Knox. Others like Vegas haven't been seen for a while and though willing to take that risk with Fowler, I want to focus on those who've been out this year. One such option was Emiliano Grillo, and it would be quite like the frustrating Argentine to win when nobody is looking, but his long-game has been poor lately.
I'll side with KRAMER HICKOK, one of last year's selections and a similar price now having definitely progressed in the interim. He looks by some distance the pick of the outsiders to me.
Hickok lost that marathon play-off to Harris English at the Travelers and contended on his penultimate start in Houston, and with his 30th birthday approaching he looks quietly progressive.
Like Ancer, when he gains strokes off the tee it's because he hits fairways, something we saw when he played well for 21st last year and led the field in that department. Focus on the shorter courses where he can compete with driver and it becomes a real strength.
Last week saw him finish 20th on his return to action and for the second time in three starts, it was his approach play which did most of the work. That's potentially significant as he ranked 144th last season, and at last he's beginning to look like he has every department covered when everything clicks, which may happen soon enough.
Hickok also struck the ball well when 40th here on debut, missed the cut narrowly in 2020, and then both drove and putted well last year. If he can translate his improved iron play he looks a live outsider, and the fact he was in the area practising during December is another little positive – Swafford had done the same before his win.
Kim and Patrick Reed are among those whose careers can be traced back to PGA West, which used to host Qualifying School, and they've come back and completed the circle in this tournament. Nick Taylor and Henrik Norlander are neat-and-tidy operators who will seek to do the same and both made the shortlist without setting the pulse racing.
San Antonio clues
Austin Smotherman is a 500/1 shot who has excelled off the tee in his handful of PGA Tour starts, and he came close to making the staking plan. I like the fact he's back playing in his home state and Bryson DeChambeau's former teammate is probably the most interesting of the genuine rags who have more of a chance here than most weeks.
Another factor in Smotherman's favour could be his performance at TPC San Antonio, the desert course which has for a long time hosted the Texas Open but also staged a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020. He was the halfway leader before fading to fourth and through Landry and one or two others, a line can be drawn to PGA West.
DAVIS RILEY won that event and as one of the standout graduates, he is preferred at a shorter price.
Riley has done really well in an unspectacular way so far this season, missing four cuts but bagging seventh place in Bermuda, 20th last week, 29th in Houston, and 56th at the Shriners where a poor final round cost him.
That Sunday 73 is his worst score so far, and three of his four missed cuts were on the number, meaning he was a single shot from advancing to the weekend. At 36th in scoring average he's right behind Buckley and Taylor Moore, and while this isn't a great metric it does demonstrate who has adapted, while underlining that Riley's results can probably be upgraded a little.
Given that performance at San Antonio, and the fact he's 17th in total driving and 43rd in strokes-gained off-the-tee, I really like his game for this and I'll reiterate that line from roommate Will Zalatoris, who said of his friend: "The kid’s got the best golf swing I’ve ever seen, but he’s also got one of the sharpest minds in the game. It’s just a matter of time before he’s gonna be a top-10 player in the world. There’s no question about it. It’s not an if. It’s just a when."
I'd be far less inclined to dish out success before it's earned but Riley is plainly considered to have a massive future, and after a really good effort at a course which requires experience last week, it would be no surprise were he to make the necessary step up and contend here.
Posted at 1145 GMT on 18/01/22
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