Ben Coley produced profit on the DP World Tour with a big-priced outsider last week, but in Thailand he believes the favourites have been underestimated.
Golf betting tips: Thailand Classic
5pts Robert MacIntyre or Nicolai Hojgaard to win at 10/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Marcus Helligkilde at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Dan Bradbury at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gavin Green at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Amata Spring Country Club makes its DP World Tour hosting debut at a curious time, as it's a venue which could feasibly end up in some sort of wordy litigation document being used by LIV Golf against the DPWT in their ongoing legal battle.
This big, modern, exclusive golf course used to host the Thailand Golf Championship, and looking back now it gave us some big form clues in terms of who would sign up with Greg and Mo: Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel and Sergio Garcia combined to win it four times in five years, with Bubba Watson, Martin Kaymer and Henrik Stenson among those running them close.
Watson aside, these players would all have required permission to play from what was the European Tour, given that there were tournaments going on in South Africa at the same time. Back then, the idea of allowing some of your biggest draws to line their pockets in time for Christmas seemed harmless enough. Now, their refusal to play ball means Westwood was due to give evidence in court last week.
What those tournaments also told us was that when classy players drop in grade they often dominate, but that's not been the case over the past fortnight as the favourites have fluffed their lines. First, Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk both surrendered hugely promising positions at Al Hamra, and then last week both Ryan Fox and Robert MacIntyre were beaten before UK viewers sat down for breakfast.
Perhaps the form book will right itself here in Thailand and the course certainly should help. Amata Spring shares plenty in common with Laguna National's Classic Course, including a par-three 17th featuring an island green (this one floats and can be moved to suit conditions), but it's more straightforward to look at, its fairways and greens less dramatically undulating, and unless the wind blows hard it should play a good bit easier still.
Breezy conditions kept a lid on scoring at the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, both last year and back in 2012, but the course was pretty firm in November and the leader was on 13-under through 54 holes before a level-par finish. I would expect the professionals to get closer to 20-under and perhaps even beyond, which the winner did in four of those five editions of the Thailand Golf Championship.
Shootouts don't always favour players like ROBERT MACINTYRE, whose record in majors confirms he likes to work hard for a score, but there's certainly a feeling that Singapore was a bit tricked-up and silly in places and he's the man to beat.
It's a view MacIntyre expressed himself and it's why I can't resist taking 22/1 (or 24/1 win-only with bet365), not far short of the price he was to beat far (far, far, far...) stronger fields in Abu Dhabi and Dubai before last week's hiccup.
MacIntyre appeared to drive the ball well, although strokes-gained data for the tournament is based on caddie calculations and is therefore unreliable. He also made very few mistakes, dropping shots on just four of his 36 holes, and my strong suspicion is that we can write off a frustrating couple of days on his return and expect a good deal better over the coming fortnight.
Remember, he's chosen to come to Asia rather than seek an invite for the Genesis Invitational, in which he played so well last year, and with Ryder Cup points so precious he can't afford to be off the pace again. MacIntyre's burst of form in Cyprus came after a lacklustre spell and his win in Italy followed a disappointing effort at Wentworth, so after a chastening weekend off I expect him to be on it on Thursday.
The same goes for NICOLAI HOJGAARD, who has been the best player from tee-to-green in two of his three starts since a superb display in the Hero Cup.
Hojgaard will at some stage destroy a field like this if he finds a hot putter and as with MacIntyre, a big carrot is being dangled: this is weaker than Al Hamra by quite some margin, yet he's exactly the same price.
Given that I was so sweet on him there, and that he justified selection to a large degree with the way he struck the ball, the only question to answer in a field absent of Adrian Meronk, Ryan Fox, Victor Perez and Nicolai's brother, Rasmus, is will he find this course similarly suitable?
I can't quite go that far, as I do believe the venue for the Ras al Khaimah is made for him, but reports from practise at Amata Spring suggest it is driver upon driver at a course which is as receptive as you'll see. That is a significant plus along with pretty sparse rough, and perhaps these slower greens will help him putt a little better than he has done so far in 2023.
I really would rather not be putting up market leaders and the fact that it's been big-priced place money which has kept things ticking over of late isn't lost on me. However, this field is poor, the course looks made for the kind of strong drivers who dominate the betting, and I think it should be closer to 12/1 the field as was the case when betting opened in Singapore last week.
MacIntyre and Hojgaard should in my view be vying for favouritism narrowly ahead of Jordan Smith so I'll split stakes and take my chances at a course I'm certain both will like. Shop around and you should get a fraction more than 10/1 the pair.
Double up on Danish talent
As I imagine was the case for many, Kiradech Aphibarnrat had been top of my initial shortlist, but I can't fall into the trap of putting up the popular Thai at prices which simply don't reflect where he is as a golfer right now in my view.
Yes there have been signs of promise either side of a successful Q-School run, and I do believe that a long-awaited return home will do wonders for him given what he said in that emotional Korn Ferry Tour interview in the autumn, while it's also important to note that he has stacks of good course form and spends a lot of his time practising at Amata Springs.
All of those things are positive and I don't blame anyone for backing him at 28 and 33/1, but I was prepared to go no lower than 40s given that his wild driving can be a problem, and that he put in a fairly moderate display under similar conditions last week.
That's the price on offer about MARCUS HELLIGKILDE and he's preferred as the best each-way play.
This talented young Dane endured a frustrating first year on the DP World Tour, one undermined by a mid-season injury, but he's barely put a foot wrong since the restart and arrives off back-to-back top-20s in similar company.
Long off the tee, that's a definite weapon in the expected conditions and as with my main selections, he'll cope just fine should the breeze that's forecast for Thursday and Friday materialise.
Low-scoring conditions certainly suit too given he can be prolific in the birdie stakes and I really liked his display in Singapore, where he kept grinding after a poor start, and played the final 54 holes in 13-under with just two dropped shots along the way.
Ranking third in greens hit is particularly eye-catching as that wouldn't necessarily be his forte, and having been ninth in the same department at Al Hamra there are some indications that he's taken the steps required to improve the area that needed improving.
Helligkilde's putter is also firing and with just one round costing him a top-five or so in each of the last two weeks, he looks primed to put things together at a course which shouldn't take a lot of figuring out.
Along with Aphibarnrat and 2015 winner Jamie Donaldson, the best of the scarce course form comes from Clement Sordet, runner-up to the Welshman at a time when he'd been playing poorly on the Challenge Tour and was a new name to many.
He's back on the DP World Tour now and came as close as he has to winning at this level in South Africa, so following an improved display in Singapore where he made 24 birdies but just a few too many mistakes, it's not surprising to see money come for him at big prices.
His French compatriots David Ravetto and Jeong Weon Ko both drive the ball superbly and must also make the shortlist, but I'll head just a few steps back up the market to find DAN BRADBURY.
A shock winner of the Joburg Open while playing on an invite, Bradbury has really impressed since earning DP World Tour membership, making the cut in each of his six subsequent appearances and gaining some priceless experience alongside Rory McIlroy in Dubai.
We're still learning about him but so far it's the modern blend of power hitting and good putting which is doing the donkey work and again it's serious going to be beating the field off-the-tee every week, which he's done.
Last week saw Bradbury suffer a slow start on his first trip to Singapore but that's fine with me, as I suspect he'll have taken something from the fact he was still able to keep this streak of weekends alive, and come the end of the tournament he'd climbed more than 60 places to a respectable share of 34th.
Bradbury shot 21-under to win in Joburg, clearly relishing the opportunity to attack, and at another driver-heavy course with fewer complications than Laguna National, one where he doesn't concede an advantage to those more experienced, he might be capable of doubling up just as Ockie Strydom did.
Jeunghun Wang has halved in price but probably deserves to have done and is respected, but I was no less taken with Tom McKibbin's performance for the most part and again, his lack of course experience isn't an issue here.
Green light for Gavin
McKibbin scored in bursts throughout the event in Singapore only to run out of gas on what was his first professional start in this part of the world, something I can easily forgive as he gets used to the sort of conditions which will again be a big factor in Thailand.
Hopefully that experience is one he can learn from quickly as this big-hitter who pounds greens looks an ideal fit for Amata Spring, providing that is he can straighten up the driver. That's just enough of a worry on balance and with just two firms offering 66/1, he looks short enough for all his potential is clear.
Kristian Krogh Johannessen is another young player to have on the radar but I'll complete the staking plan with GAVIN GREEN.
Form figures of MC-MC-MC to begin 2023 explain quotes of 80/1 about a player who threatened to win in stronger fields last year, but two of these missed cuts have been by narrow margins including last week.
Green hasn't been driving it well and that's a worry, too, but Abu Dhabi's Yas Links was always likely to catch him out and I could see him dialling it back in under soft conditions at a course where all-out attack looks likely to be required.
That's Green's game in a nutshell, hence runner-up finishes at Albatros and Dom Pedro where driver is almost an automatic club selection away from the par-threes. When he gets that club purring, he can show off his borderline elite wedge game and the fact that he's a wonderful putter at his best.
With plenty of experience in Thailand and none of the quirks of Laguna National to deal with, this looks the right time to chance one of the form players of the second half of 2022 at generous prices.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 13/02/23
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