Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Swiss Challenge preview and best bets
Golf betting tips: Swiss Challenge
3pts win Angel Ayora at 16/1 (William Hill, bet365, betway)
1.5pts e.w. Alex Levy at 40/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Kristoffer Reitan at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Jonas Baumgartner at 100/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Josh Grenville-Wood at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
It would be fair to say last week’s preview of the Italian Challenge Open got a lot right. The first, second and third, actually, although not quite right enough as none of the trio featured in a speculative staking plan.
Justin Walters I was happy enough to leave alone as early birds took the 100/1, but having written the whole thing around John Parry, seeing him win was difficult. Unfortunately, having opened 25/1 he was steadily cut to around 16-18 generally and I felt anything under 20/1 could be left out on balance. It doesn’t make it any less frustrating, for me or for readers who follow the advice at the top to the letter.
If that’s not a self-pitying lede I don’t know what is, and if Saint Apollinaire isn’t a big-hitters’ paradise, I don’t know where is. Hopefully then the torment of watching Parry fend them all off as my 66/1 and 250/1 contenders fell backwards can soon be cast aside by this time capitalising on the right working out in the Swiss Challenge.
Whereas in Italy that working out took hours of course flyovers and digging through various websites, here it took no time at all. I wrote about it last year (also noting that we’re actually in France, close to the border with Switzerland), and nothing that happened during that renewal changed my mind.
Granted, Adam Blomme won – such is golf – but powerhouse Jesper Svensson was second, Julian Suri third, Ivan Cantero fourth, and this list of long-driving contenders ties in with previous editions. Former winner Marcus Helligkilde talked about being able to carry bunkers and cut corners that some couldn’t and this new, immature course, while not without its challenges, is ripe to be taken on off the tee. That's how Alejandro del Rey carded a Challenge Tour record round of 58 three years ago.
Four par-fives and a driveable par-four provide a perfect make-up and it’s therefore a bizarre scheduling decision on the part of Wilco Nienaber not to be here. He’s not playing in Spain, either, and I can’t for the life of me work out why he’d have chosen Italy last week instead of this. On such mistakes cards can be lost and at 22nd in the Road to Mallorca standings, this would've been a golden opportunity, especially as there's been rain to soften the course up and there's more to come.
There are a small group of big-hitters towards the top of the betting and while Oliver Lindell and Lucas Bjerregaard are among them, ANGEL AYORA could take some stopping.
Without the players ranked first, second, third and fourth on the Road to Mallorca, Ayora is already one of the best two players in the field along with Nicolai von Dellinghausen, but the German was probably much better suited to last week's course.
Ayora finished just behind him in fourth place after a closing 65, meaning his recent Challenge Tour form reads 4-29-1-4, and based on the glimpses we've had of him up at DP World Tour level, the talented Spaniard holds a distinct power advantage.
Speaking of his nationality, it seems likely he'd have been given an invite to play in the Open de Espana had he wanted one, so the fact that he's here to secure his card for 2025 could be seen as a positive, along with the overall state of one of the most promising games in Europe.
With Hellingkilde also having won at Vierumaki and Svensson having been second, Ayora's contending fourth there looks like a good pointer and so is a top-10 finish at Novo Sancti Petri, another friendly venue for long drivers where Svensson has also finished runner-up.
He's 16/1 and having turned down Parry at that price last week some will be surprised I'm willing to side with Ayora, but at the end of the day we had to guess a bit when it came to the course in Italy, where a stronger field assembled. This is weak and I feel I've a good handle on what will be required.
Another factor to ponder this week is that after the next two events, only the top 68 will advance to two more in China, where places at the Grand Final will be up for grabs.
That Road to Mallorca cut-off is part of the case for two more big-hitters, KRISTOFFER REITAN and JOSH GRENVILLE-WOOD.
At 66th in the standings, Reitan just needs one solid week to earn a crack at two events in China which would give him the opportunity to make it to the Grand Final, where anything can happen.
This former amateur star has the ability to salvage his season and get back where he'll feel he belongs following back-to-back top-20s in Germany and Portugal, both improvements on his first crack at those two courses.
Prior to this he was right in the mix for the Danish Golf Championship, where he ranked sixth in distance and both drove and putted the ball well, and these are his strengths when firing. In a weak field, having been 21st here last year when his overall form was not as impressive, the Norwegian looks a strong candidate.
Grenville-Wood might require a little more faith but he's one of the very longest hitters on the Challenge Tour and this could be a great course for him.
The UAE-based youngster has already shown what he can do with a couple of top-10s on the DP World Tour and in five starts at that level over the past year, he led the driving distance stats three times. One of those top-10s came at Al Hamra, where Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox are past champions and where long hitting is hugely advantageous.
Second in Delhi earlier this year and then a halfway contender in Ireland at the start of August, his poor form since explains massive prices. However, he improved on a run of MC-72-MC-MC-MC to finish 43rd on his course debut and is in generally better shape this time, having missed the cut on the number last week.
Grenville-Wood would've made it with a five at the 18th only to take six, yet still shot a score only six players in the field bettered, and that couldn't have come at a better time given the nature of this week's assignment.
At 68th in the Road to Mallorca, he's right on the bubble and while I don't yet know much about the following week's venue in Prague, I doubt it'll suit as well as this really should. He has to be worth a roll of the dice at 125/1 and bigger.
I'd hoped to side with another powerhouse in the shape of the giant Jonathan Thomson, who finished T7 at First Stage Q-School last week to put a withdrawal in Germany behind him.
BoyleSports opened up at 100/1, suggesting perhaps they missed that more recent effort in a sectional where Tim Tillmanns (also 100/1) finished T1. Thomson's course form of 2-8-MC is one of many reasons to suggest big-hitters have plenty in their favour and he's never turned up here in particularly good form, either.
Prior to Germany he was playing just fine and 100s looked a bit of a gift, but as other firms began pricing up, it became clear they'd be quoting much shorter odds. Nothing short of 66/1 would've been enough for me so he has to be left out of the staking plan.
Instead, I'll take a chance on JONAS BAUMGARTNER, who followed fifth place in the German Challenge with a good final round in Portugal last time, his 67 among the best scores in the field.
The top-ranked German amateur and ranked inside the top 30 worldwide before turning pro this summer, he seems to be getting the hang of things and this might be more suitable than a pretty difficult, exposed test by the coast in Portugal.
Prior to these two efforts he'd stormed through the field with a third-round 66 in Finland, at the course I've referenced as a possible form guide, and while we're a little in the dark my impression is that he's at least above-average in distance, based on how he swings it.
Baumgartner was a better amateur than Tillmanns and we've seen Herman Sekne and Mats Ege both prove competitive if unreliable since they too graduated from college, so it wasn't a surprise to see him finally put four rounds together at Wittelsbacher.
Notably, that event was won by Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Baumgartner's former OSU teammate and doubtless a source of inspiration as he bids to follow a similar path to the big tour. At 80/1 and bigger I'm prepared to chance this youngster with raw potential.
Jeon Weong Ko came close to winning this for the home team in 2022 (remember, we're close to the border, but very much on the French side) and I did consider Romain Wattel at a big price, but Pierre Pineau is the strongest option. However, his propensity for a double-bogey and the fact that he's hardened to favouritism in places is enough to look elsewhere.
Cedric Gugler will do for many after he finished fourth in the European Masters won by Matt Wallace and he lives just a short drive from the course, so another step up in the career of this promising 24-year-old wouldn't surprise anyone. I can't argue that 50/1 rates anything but slightly on the short side, however, so he too is passed over.
There's no denying though that the Challenge Tour is a little lacking in depth at the moment, a fact underlined by eight strongly-fancied winners in the last 10 events, and how well those dropping down from the DP World Tour have generally fared. It's why I'm so disappointed that Kristoffer Broberg isn't here, as he'd have rated a strong fancy.
Whether ALEX LEVY would count as the ninth in 11 is a matter of opinion but the more I've looked, the stronger his chances appear to me.
Granted, a missed cut in Portugal (by a long way) followed by 53rd in Italy doesn't look great but neither course rewarded his attacking style of golf in the same way that Vierumaki did, and he looked for all the world like he'd win there in August.
Since then he's contended again in Poland, and if we rewind to June he was fifth at Nova Sancti Petri, so like Ayora he's been in the frame at the two courses I consider to offer us the strongest clues. Ayora won in Poland, too, so perhaps that's another where big-hitting aggression was the way to go.
Undoubtedly up to winning at this level, Levy has gone off considerably shorter in stronger fields several times this year and if you take the view that he's not been especially well suited to the last couple of courses he's played, then the classy Frenchman, playing on home soil, becomes a serious candidate.
At a standout 40/1, he's twice the price he would've been a few weeks ago in this sort of company and I'm not sure it's merited. In fact, I'm certain it's not.
Posted at 1730 BST on 24/09/24
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