Ben Coley's golf betting tips: South African Open preview and best bets
Charl Schwartzel, Matti Schmid and Freddy Schott all feature among Ben Coley's best bets for this week's South African Open.
Golf betting tips: South African Open
2pts e.w. Zander Lombard at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Matti Schmid at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Charl Schwartzel at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jeong Weon Ko at 150/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
In the end, last week's Joburg Open went largely to the form book. The favourite won, the defending champion placed, and the new benchmark for these events was the 54-hole leader. Anyone glancing at the final leaderboard in years to come won't have to dwell long upon the page.
But the story of the tournament was the collapse of Thriston Lawrence, who went from odds-on champion elect to member of a flailing group of pursuers very quickly. In many respects it was a repeat of how he played during the final round of last year's South African Open, although not nearly as bad. The difference? He still won the latter.
Golf is extremely fickle, the margins between the winner and all those losers rarely significant. Last week, Lawrence couldn't rely on a class act like Dean Burmester giving him another opportunity. Last year, his final-round playing partners happened to be maidens from overseas, who found both the course and the occasion no less difficult to handle.
Aside from the simple fact that I am running out of things to write, I thought this was a point worth making. When we analyse the winners and the losers, assign imaginary ratings for how they perform under pressure, it might be best to temper extremes on both ends. Lawrence first became a winner when a tournament was abandoned at halfway, after all.
Driver key to monster course
We'll come back to that, but first a word on the course, which is the starting point most weeks but especially so here. Blair Atholl claims to be the third longest in the world, and while its creator Gary Player has been known to claim a lot of things, this does appear to be correct. Thanks heavens there remain only a few which have deemed it necessary to break the 8,000-yard barrier, this one coming in at 8,161 from the tips.
It will be baking hot if the forecast holds and we're at almost 1,500m above sea level, so that yardage can effectively be reduced. At a course which is undulating, a notably difficult walk in fact, expect to see drives travel beyond 400 yards, particularly off the first tee but again later in the round.
Still, Lawrence and Clement Sordet are both strong drivers and with generally wide fairways to aim at, length seems a significant advantage. It was talked about during the Sunshine Tour event played here in 2021, where Lawrence carded a course record he held until Friday last year, and it was talked about throughout the SA Open, too.
It's certainly a good venue for Burmester to go hunting a double and while we did have some straight, shorter drivers on the fringes, the nature of Blair Atholl is ultimately the reason I can't go in again on Christiaan Bezuidenhout. His price has held up and I certainly would if they were playing at Houghton for a second week running, but on his debut here I don't want to be playing catch-up from the tee.
Instead, the vote goes to ZANDER LOMBARD, playing some of the best golf of his life right now and likely to be advantaged by the course.
Lombard improved upon his Joburg Open effort a year ago, despite not having played the Sunshine Tour event here. As has been the case down the years he paid the price for one major mistake and it came at just the wrong time, the three shots he dropped on the final hole of round two taking him from the fringes of contention to out of it altogether.
Otherwise he played well and his form upon returning is much better, demonstrated by three bogey-free rounds last week and the signs he showed in Dubai before it. To my eye he didn't putt as well as he can at Houghton but if anything his occasional wildness off the tee proved too big a hurdle to clear at a tighter, shorter course, as well as the odd duffed chip.
Ultimately he was very close to having a chance to win that event, sitting one back during the final round before the putter went cold, and while I appreciate some will feel differently, my view is that he'll bag one of these sooner rather than later.
Lombard was extremely unfortunate in the Joburg Open two years ago, lurking behind Lawrence when play was abandoned, and from his last three goes in co-sanctioned events has two top-fives. I get the sense he's never been better than he is today and while Burmester is 7/1 from 11/1 and Jayden Schaper is into 25 and 28/1 from 40s, Lombard hasn't really moved in the market.
Quite why that is I'm not sure, but at anything bigger than 20s I'm happy to go in again. His time is coming.
Schaper is hugely promising but the market reflects that now so the other two players towards the top of the betting who appeal most are MATTI SCHMID and Ewen Ferguson.
Ferguson has been playing superbly despite carrying a cold putter for much of the year. When the putts have dropped he's generally been right in the mix and, with a strong record in South Africa, that will likely be the case again.
But while his accurate game might help avoid trouble spots at times, he's far less explosive than Schmid and that tips the scales in favour of the German, who also has the advantage of a previous spin around here having been an excellent fourth a year ago.
Bossing the par-fives throughout that debut, Schmid helped demonstrate what an extra gear off the tee can do around a course with five of them, and that was despite his form having been poor for a while. Back then he'd gone 59-MC-MC-61-MC-MC to begin life on the PGA Tour; this time he's done much better, with a couple of solid performances to go with third place in Bermuda.
Also second in Spain when returning to the DP World Tour, the fact he kept his card on just a handful of trips back across the Atlantic tells you how capable he is, and his last two starts in South Africa have both resulted in top-fives on big golf courses where his power is especially beneficial.
I see no reason why he can't continue that trend, knowing full well that taking care of business in South Africa will enable him to focus fully on the start of a new season on the PGA Tour.
Side with class over potential
Given all of the above and the fact that he was on course to land the place money for us last year before a costly nine late on in round four, Wilco Nienaber was of course a name I looked at closely.
However, he's missed two cuts either side of a poor effort at DP World Tour Qualifying School so while I do think he'll improve upon last week's effort, which came under far less suitable conditions, there are not nearly enough signs of encouragement to be taking pretty short prices about a player yet to earn full status at this level.
Instead, I have to take the bait and put up CHARL SCHWARTZEL, dangled at 50/1 in a place or slightly shorter if you want seventh and eighth to pay out.
I wrote last week that standout quotes of 40/1 forced a second glance given the class of this former Masters champion, despite a quiet year on the LIV Golf circuit, but that I'd sit and wait for signs of promise given that not only was he ninth at Blair Atholl last year, but he used to live at the course and has a round of 60 in the books.
Schwartzel didn't necessarily show those obvious signs of promise, but missing the cut by a single shot might be even better. It means we don't have to suffer a shorter price, the opposite in fact, and a second-round 68 on his first start in a number of weeks might suggest he isn't too far away at all.
Truth be told it's hard to know where his game is, but I do like the fact he played at Houghton. Last year he suffered one bad round here, dropping from 13th to the cut line on Friday before powering through the pack at the weekend, and he hadn't played in six weeks. This time, perhaps he felt a primer at a course he doesn't know as well would be a good idea and I agree with that.
Certainly, Schwartzel will be motivated to win the SA Open, a title that is missing from his collection, and seeing teammate Burmester dominate there in Johannesburg may serve as extra motivation. I really don't mind finding out if the 39-year-old still has what it takes at this level, not at odds which are a fair bit bigger than 12 months ago.
Hoping to emulate Schwartzel one day are Christo Lamprecht and Christiaan Maas, both of whom have to be respected as South Africa's best amateurs. Lamprecht made a blistering start to the Open back in summer, shortly after winning the Amateur Championship, and heads the WAGR currently; Maas meanwhile contended in last year's SA Open.
However they're probably best left to contest the Freddie Tait Cup, awarded to the leading amateur and won in fact by Schwartzel back in 2002, as it remains a massive ask for an amateur to capture a title as important as this one. Lamphrecht could be the real deal but 33/1 in a place is no gift and of the young locals, Casey Jarvis is probably the better bet now he's almost doubled in price despite playing just fine.
Youngsters well worth a Schott
With few other realistic champions making genuine appeal, I'm going to lean into that emphasis on quality driving to side with two from Europe instead. It is generally best to stick to the home players in these events, but the SA Open means a lot to them and that can make Sundays difficult, as Lawrence found out last year.
Perhaps FREDDY SCHOTT can make an immediate impression after his emphatic Q-School victory.
Schott was a comfortable winner in the end despite a third-round 75, the worst of anyone in the eventual top 20. That tells you how dominant he was over the other five rounds in Spain, and coming through that serious test of fortitude will do him wonders going forward.
Considered by some to be the best young talent in Germany at the moment, Schott will hope to do as his friend Nick Bachem did and get off the mark in South Africa. Like Bachem, the course should help, because he's an enormous driver who showed up at Green Eagle last summer, the longest they play in Europe.
Schott was 43rd here last year, a result which looked set to read something like 30th until he made a triple-bogey at the penultimate hole, and I'd call that an encouraging look around. He went on a run of missed cuts and near-last finishes afterwards, and it's significant that it only ended when he met another driver-heavy course in Italy before improving again in the subsequent weeks.
For what it's worth, last year's runner-up Sordet was ninth in Italy, a nice tie-in, and Schott was fifth behind the Frenchman in a Challenge Tour event held in South Africa, another that appeared to favour the longest drivers in the field given that Marco Penge also featured.
While Schott did end up at Q-School, his performances from August onwards were more like it and as one of the best drivers in this field, providing he's ready to go mentally I think this could be a good opportunity to get in the mix.
I did wonder whether Sordet himself might return to form and his preparation has actually been similar to last year, but at almost twice the price his compatriot JEONG WEON KO is preferred.
Ko was a good 30th on his debut in this event having opened up with rounds of 69 and 66 to lie fifth at halfway. It was also his first taste of DP World Tour contention and came after he'd been 66th at Houghton a week earlier, that course far less likely to play to his strengths.
Missing the cut by two in Joburg therefore doesn't worry me and neither does the fact he failed by just one in Qatar, as a week earlier he'd finished seventh in Spain to seal his card for 2024. That mighty effort, which came from a share of the lead at halfway, must have taken something out of him, allowing for a mental letdown in Doha.
Three weeks off followed before he shot 73-69 in Johannesburg so hopefully that shook off the rust and set Ko up for a return to Blair Atholl. As the fourth-best driver in the field on last season's numbers it's an obviously good fit and makes this his first chance to have another go at a course he took to at the first time of asking.
Ko had written in Qatar that it's 'been a while since I've felt this good about my game', so it doesn't seem too fanciful to hope that he might build a similar platform and stick around for longer this time.
Finally, I must give a mention to Matthias Schwab before signing off. The Austrian is in the golfing wilderness now he's lost his full PGA Tour status but he's got bags of talent, and I'd note that he's started to hit a lot of greens again. That might not sound like much but he seems encouraged by what's been slow progress during 2023.
Had he been 80/1 generally I'd have been chancing him and those who can take three-figure prices are advised to strongly consider it. After all, he was in the mix for this event on his last start in South Africa and at his very best would be close to the front of the market.
How far he is away from that level right now is hard to say, but this is a big drop in grade. My instinct is to lean towards the firms who make him a 50/1 shot than those who go up to twice that price.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 27/11/23
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