Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Soudal Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley tipped the first, second and fifth from just four selections in Italy last week. Don't miss his best bets for the Soudal Open.
Golf betting tips: Soudal Open
3pts e.w. Adrian Otaegui at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Santiago Tarrio at 90/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Daniel Brown at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Course winner the one to be on in Belgium
Ahead of the first edition of the Soudal Open, I wondered aloud whether Rinkven International's composite course might be attacked differently now under the traditional format of 72-hole stroke play.
This short, tree-lined, parkland layout had previously hosted the Belgian Knockout, whose contenders were almost exclusively the type of short, straight, steady players you might expect to perform well at a place like Rinkven GC – think David Drysdale, Benjamin Hebert, Darius van Driel, Gregory Havret and so on.
But with some driveable par-fours and no longer any need for the sort of tactical, look behind you rather than ahead golf which coloured the early stages of that experimental, dual-format event, might we now see aggression pay off?
On the face of it, the answer was yes as Sam Horsfield and Ryan Fox duelled for the title, with Yannik Paul joining in late on. The first two in particular give the ball an almighty lash and Paul isn't exactly short. Adrian Meronk, Sean Crocker, Thomas Pieters and Grant Forrest also managed top-10 finishes, Meronk showing what can be done with an eagle two at the 16th.
But as we return for another try, curious as it may sound, I'm inclined to stick to what it says on the tin and propose that Rinkven is still a bit of a plotters' paradise. Note that Horsfield and Fox both in fact lost strokes off the tee, whereas John Catlin and Richie Ramsay ranked among the best drivers for the week, both of them short and accurate. Maybe Horsfield and Fox are just really good players who found another way to do it.
That other way requires far less speculation to explain. Horsfield, Fox and Paul ranked third, first and fourth respectively in strokes-gained approach and these were no freak performances, because Horsfield had already established himself among the Tour's best in that department, topping the table in 2021, while Fox and Paul went on to rank fourth and 12th in 2022.
First and foremost then we're looking for a quality iron player who can set up birdie chances on these small greens, while it'll help if they're a handy scrambler, too. Horsfield and Paul were second and third in the field and as well as speaking to their respective abilities with a wedge, this category is often dominated by players whose misses are not significant. Those who are in the fringe will get up and down more often than those further away.
The other point of order is that this is weaker than a year ago. Former host Pieters joins Horsfield and Bernd Wiesberger as LIV Golf absentees, Fox and Meronk are also missing, and so is Victor Perez. In geek terms, category 18 didn't all get a game last year; this time most of those in category 19 do. This is partly why Thomas Detry is a good 10 points shorter in the betting.
Detry is a player I've always liked and he can take heart from Wyndham Clark's display at the Wells Fargo. He's been competitive throughout this rookie PGA Tour season, playing well in a couple of elevated events and bagging six top-20 finishes, so dropping in grade has to be respected even if he's yet to win on the DP World Tour.
The problem is that approach play used to be a strength but has become a weakness and, with extra focus on him in the absence of Pieters, I'll be impressed and even a little bit surprised if he justifies favouritism. That first win will come, I feel sure of it, but perhaps when he's not so sharply in focus.
There are four good alternatives at the front of the betting, Paul among them, but I don't see anyone with a more compelling profile than inaugural Belgian Knockout winner ADRIAN OTAEGUI.
That was Otaegui's second win, the first having come on a similar parkland course in Germany, and he's added two more over the last three seasons, including his career highlight at Valderrama in October.
Winning by six there and four in Scotland previously, he's a player with a definite touch of class and I'd generally prefer him to the bang in-form Jorge Campillo, for all he's now a three-time winner himself.
Valderrama is unique but narrow fairways and small greens make it comparable to Rinkven and very much in Otaegui's wheelhouse as a course where accuracy and touch count double. Not only is Otaegui the leader in this field in terms of strokes-gained approach, but the leader in scrambling both last season and this.
That really does look the right formula, and he's about the same price as he was last year when finishing 15th, making it three good performances from as many visits to the course. Once again he was strong through the bag and made very few mistakes, something he had in common with the eventual champion.
His form at the time was a little stronger on paper but there's been plenty of encouragement lately. Two missed cuts in South Africa came by the barest of margins, before which he'd not missed one since October, and 40th last week in Italy was in line with both previous starts at power-friendly Marco Simone.
Those who paid close attention to the Italian Open will know that Otaegui was in the final group on Saturday, having scored well during the first 36 holes when the course played a little differently. As the weather improved and tees were pushed forward at the weekend it was again the big-hitters who took over but I don't mind that one bit, especially given that his last two wins came after missed cuts in less suitable events.
Otaegui is the sort of player who requires pretty specific circumstances in order to be at his best. He's not had them across his last two starts, both courses favouring longer drivers, but we know for sure this accurate driver has them now. He really ought to go well.
Paul is the other one I considered strongly ahead of Alex Bjork, who has every chance but doesn't get it done often enough for me to believe he's value at as short as 12/1 in places. Paul's breakthrough win came after a run just like the one he's on now, contending virtually every week, and he'd be just behind Otaegui in the pecking order.
Eddie to pepper pins
Julien Brun is a similar player to Bjork and a big price if you are willing to excuse his performance in Italy, but I'm drawn to the encouragement shown there by EDDIE PEPPERELL and he's preferred.
Like Brun, Pepperell struggles off the tee, to the extent that he's often gone without a driver in the bag altogether. Not the most accurate and far from the longest, courses like Marco Simone leave him with a mountain to climb, so a top-10 finish goes down as hugely eye-catching.
It was his first appearance in three months, too, so ranking eighth in strokes-gained approach and showcasing a sharp short-game should set him up perfectly for a second go at Rinkven, his first ending in a missed cut during a spell of poor golf throughout the first six months of last season.
Things turned for Pepperell in July and he played superbly for the rest of the year, which makes his performances in 2023 all the more disappointing. However, we need to take into account the schedule: it was his first go at Yas Links, he's almost always played poorly in Dubai, his Al Hamra record now reads MC-MC-MC, and both Singapore and Italy were dominated by players who love thrashing driver.
Don't be surprised if he therefore takes off again now we get to events like this one, the KLM Open and the Scandinavian Mixed, should he play in all of them. Pepperell is far better equipped for a course like Rinkven, where he really can get away with not even carrying a driver, and he now plays it with a platform.
It's well known that he didn't much enjoy Valderrama on his sole start there but he's got stacks of form on tree-lined courses elsewhere in Spain as well as Italy, loves Wentworth, and can prove that this course in Belgium is far more suitable than a poor putting week for a missed cut last year would lead you to believe.
Diamond GC in Austria looks to offer strong pointers towards this hence Max Kieffer made some appeal after his play-off defeat there. Kieffer has since won his first DP World Tour title, thanks in no small part to a superb short-game, and remains one of the most accurate drivers on the circuit.
I'm not mad on him at the price though so I'll take a bigger one and accept the risks attached to MARCUS KINHULT.
Kinhult only played that course in Austria once and contended, while he produced some of the best golf in the field over the closing 54 holes for a top-10 at Valderrama behind Otaegui.
Throw in his British Masters win at a short course where Richie Ramsay has subsequently triumphed, plus excellent records in Kenya and in Crans, and Kinhult has a lovely profile for this course, his sole previous visit having come just a fortnight after his Hillside heroics and before his US Open debut.
Accurate off the tee and capable of high-class approach play, not to mention red-hot putting, Kinhult's game should be ideal for Rinkven and there have been enough signs lately that it's in good shape, especially last time out when he closed with a round of 66 in the Korea Championship.
Three solid rounds in Japan before that and a Rolex Series top-10 in January suggest that the Swede isn't too far away from a second DP World Tour win, so perhaps he can land it just about four years to the day since his first.
Last week's Italian Open was the first time in months that we got reliable strokes-gained data and I'll make no apology for allowing it to lead me to SANTIAGO TARRIO, who was already on the shortlist for this.
As I wrote in a players to follow piece during the off-season, Tarrio is 'Otaegui without yet having cracked it on the greens'; short, accurate, deadly at times with his irons, which is what we saw in Rome as he led the field in strokes-gained approach.
Having also suggested it should be eyes out for Kenya should he travel there, quite why I wasn't on at a big price for third place isn't clear, and I don't want to make the same mistake now that he gets another go at the sort of technical, tree-lined course he so enjoys.
Tarrio's best effort last year backs this up as he finished fourth in Sweden, and I think overall he's playing to a higher standard than when finishing 33rd on his Rinkven debut, doing all things well but no things spectacularly.
I'd take a repeat with the putter, which has been costly over the last fortnight, but this top-tier iron player otherwise has an excellent game for these traditional layouts where those who hit fairways can compete with those who hit it miles.
As with Kinhult, Tarrio can be backed at a shade bigger with Sky Bet in their six places market at the time of publication.
His compatriot Angel Hidalgo caught the eye at a big price based on flashes this year as well as a top-five at Valderrama. Hidalgo did really well to make the cut last week, as did fellow youngster Alejandro del Rey given that the latter was flying in round one before taking 17 shots across his final two holes.
Del Rey is better suited to a wider course whereas Hidalgo should enjoy this one again, just as he did last year. So will Dale Whitnell, whose dip in form has coincided with two long courses; he's one of the most accurate drivers around and won't have been especially well suited to either Steyn City or Marco Simone.
Brown has shown he can cut it
A winner in Belgium on the Challenge Tour and the halfway leader here last year, Whitnell is respected, but I'll opt for a similar player in DANIEL BROWN to round off the staking plan.
Brown is yet to miss a cut in what's been an excellent rookie campaign, and as we learn about him there are indications that courses like Rinkven should really appeal. He's 14th in fairways, 19th in scrambling and well above average with his irons, ranking 14th in strokes-gained approach last week in Italy.
Chances are he'll prefer this tighter test but it was only his short-game which caused issues at Marco Simone and that's so often been a strength, so if it's back on track then he can be expected to make another weekend and perhaps a real impression on the leaderboard.
Brown was a good amateur, a win in the Netherlands among his highlights, and was one of just three players to break 70 in all six rounds at Q School in November. He's done so well to build on that effort and on this occasion is preferred to Dan Bradbury, this leveller of a course key to such a decision.
Others of note include Mike Lorenzo-Vera, who most of us would gladly see win for the first time, a close-to-form Andy Sullivan, and KO semi-finalist Ewen Ferguson, all of whom feature on a long list of options. It seems to me that just about every DP World Tour player who is best when driver isn't that important has spied an opportunity.
Posted at 1650 BST on 08/05/23
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