Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sony Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley has found 20/1 and 50/1 winners of the Sony Open over the past four renewals. Get his selections for the first full-field PGA Tour event of 2024.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open
2pts e.w. Harris English at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Denny McCarthy at 40/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Adam Svensson at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nick Taylor at 90/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Joel Dahmen at 175/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It stands to reason that if the PGA Tour begins the year with back-to-back tournaments in Hawaii, then those who play the first ought to be at an advantage in the second. Shaking off any Christmas rust in what's now The Sentry has to be of benefit to anyone who hops across to the neighbouring island to take part in the Sony Open, the first full-field event of the new season.
This has been the way of the calendar for a quarter of a century now, and 17 players went from Kapalua to Waialae and won, but while they're the minority group numerically, in terms of ability let's not forget that these are the best players. This week's Sony Open market underlines the point: 24 of the first 25 names played last week, the exception Will Zalatoris as he continues his return from injury.
I would say then that the doubling-up cohort have done no more than you'd expect. They are likely to provide the winner, their strength enhanced by the expansion of the field for The Sentry, but when it comes to unravelling this event there's a historical trend which I think could be more useful – the one that tells you the three Europeans vying for favouritism are worth taking on.
First established in 1965, the Sony Open has since produced one debut winner, which was Russell Henley a decade ago. Henley by the way is priced as the player most likely to benefit from the trend he busted, but one way or another it seems wise to oppose Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matt Fitzpatrick.
Given that Hatton is three years removed from his last win and that Aberg played poorly last week, Fitzpatrick ought to be favourite. He's a major champion who won at a similar course to this one last year, he was a solid 14th last week, and he ended last year with a win and two near-misses either side of an improved Ryder Cup display.
But I'm venturing further down the betting to make HARRIS ENGLISH the best bet in the hope that all three of those Ryder Cup players find a lack of experience counting against them.
English has slipped off the radar a little after injuries again caught up with him following his own Ryder Cup debut in 2021, but he played well last year and in excellent company, too. In fact his last non-major missed cut came at Sawgrass, before which he'd been runner-up at Bay Hill before going on to contend for the US Open.
Although he wasn't necessarily in spectacular form towards the end of the year he signed off last season with 10th in a FedEx Cup Playoff event, then returned from a long break to finish 28th in the RSM Classic before pairing up with Celine Boutier in the Grant Thornton Invitational, where both were uncharacteristically quiet on the greens.
Everything he's done throughout the past nine months says English has his game in good shape and after middle rounds of 66 and 64 last week, he talked about the work he's done to make sure he can capitalise on some events he loves. The new FedEx Cup format demands a fast start, and English is well aware of that.
"I didn't really take a ton of time off," he said. "I've been getting after it pretty hard. I didn't play a whole lot this fall, but kind of playing the back end with the RSM and Grant Thornton I thought was a good prep for getting ready for this week and the start of the West Coast.
"I'm going to play a lot here out west and thought I would get right back to it.
"Not really thinking about much in my golf swing right now. It's been great. These past couple weeks these tournaments have been some of the best I've driven it, which is great for me and can give me a lot of chances to get that putter in the hand."
He sounds bullish to me and the Sony Open looks one of his better opportunities. As well as making 10 of 11 cuts here and bagging three top-10s early on in his career, his wins in correlating events in Mexico, at the Travelers and at Southwind all suggest he has his ideal conditions, which in this case extend to bermuda greens.
English has just seen his friend and former Georgia Bulldog teammate Chris Kirk win at Kapalua and he's a class act who is more than capable of winning his fifth PGA Tour title if that putter of his gets rolling.
Speaking of the putter, there's nobody better than DENNY MCCARTHY when he's firing, and this looks an excellent opportunity for him to get off the mark.
McCarthy's career has been one of steady improvement which ought to have culminated in a deserved first win at the Memorial, before he lost a play-off to Viktor Hovland.
Undeterred, he contended in his next two PGA Tour events and impressed again in the US Open to underline that he's an improved golfer who should take that next step at some stage, and having signed off the season with 10th in the BMW he was straight back at it when fifth in the RSM Classic.
Last week's 43rd in The Sentry was just fine given that it was his debut and he didn't putt anywhere near as well as he can, and over the final three rounds his iron play was excellent. Sunday's six-under 67 couldn't have been better timed and sends him across to Oahu with something to build on.
McCarthy's record here might not leap off the page but he's made both cuts and, as an above-average driver in accuracy terms, who is bound to be best served by shorter courses, this is a tournament which really should be to his liking. And, significantly perhaps, this is the first time he plays it following a prep run.
Note that McCarthy was sixth in the AmEx on his second start in 2022 and fourth at Pebble Beach on his third start in 2023, so those four rounds of competitive action at a course which massively favours those with experience could have him spot-on for this third look at Waialae, which also takes some getting used to.
McCarthy got married in December after a good week at the Grant Thornton Invitational and it wouldn't be a surprise if this was his breakout season at last. There won't be many better opportunities than the Sony Open and 40/1 looks a great price.
There are plenty of options in this section of the market, a reflection of the fact that the players who have chosen to come here do so knowing it suits them, and I want to add one more in the shape of ADAM SVENSSON.
Winner of the RSM Classic just over a year ago, Svensson went on to confirm himself a rock-solid all-rounder, gaining strokes in all departments come the end of the season and producing the most consistent golf of his career.
Contending in The PLAYERS was another step up the ladder together with a top-10 at Riviera, and there should be more to come from him in 2024 having not only made every cut since June, but regularly been hanging around the lead, too.
Svensson's best efforts during this spell came when seventh at the Wyndham and fifth in the RSM Classic, both played on shorter courses and, in the case of the RSM, by the coast. With form in the Honda, too, he's developing a profile similar to that of last week's winner and could well be the man to follow Kirk in.
His Sony Open record shows an opening 61 on debut to hold the lead, an opening 64 on his way to seventh next time, and four sub-70 rounds last year, while the fact he's now based in Florida might mean that bermuda greens are another factor in where he's tended to pop up.
After Si Woo Kim beat Hayden Buckley last year, two of the most accurate drivers in the field, I like the fact Svensson has ranked 39th and 40th in driving accuracy over the past two seasons, and around this narrower course his accuracy can help him to gain strokes off the tee before putting his real strengths to use thereafter.
Those looking for an eye-catcher from Kapalua can't help but spot Andrew Putnam, who shot 74-71-67-64 and had his irons and short-game firing come the weekend. He's twice been in the top five at Waialae and it's an ideal course, but the 50s has all but gone now and he's the right price.
Instead I'll opt for the habitually underrated NICK TAYLOR, now a three-time PGA Tour champion following his heroics in Canada last year.
Taylor went on to miss three of his next four cuts but two of those were in majors, and having played fairly well at Southwind he made it all the way to the TOUR Championship for the very first time in his career.
Back at it soon after, he was 13th in the Shriners when in the mix at halfway, then 21st in Japan thanks to four solid rounds on his first start there, so there's ample evidence that he remains in the sort of form that saw him take down the likes of Hatton for the biggest win of his career back in June.
Taylor now comes back to the Sony and a course he's figured out over time, his last three finishes reading 32nd, 11th and seventh, with his approach play very good in two of them and some excellent putting more recently.
That's what he does when he's at his best and while less accurate than I'd like, his game is similar in nature (if less effective) to that of 2020 champion Cameron Smith, whose course record upon arrival was also comparable.
Taylor split Si Woo Kim and JT Poston in last season's strokes-gained total stats and while they're by no means a flawless way to rate golfers, his winning ability and positive course profile should entitle him to be closer to compatriots Svensson and Adam Hadwin even if he didn't set the world alight in The Sentry.
At bigger prices I considered Will Gordon, a big-hitter whose best form has nevertheless come on shorter, more technical courses like El Camaleon and River Highlands. English is a winner at both, Henley at the former, and they're good pointers when combined with Gordon's encouraging effort here last January.
Ryan Moore ended 2023 back in good nick and I wouldn't write him off based solely on four missed cuts from four in this event. The first two came seven years apart, and more recently we can see that he's hit the ball well only to be undone by a putter that has started to behave again.
That comment applies to Tyler Duncan, but he's a shorter price than when placing for us at the RSM, an event he'd won before, and this is stronger at the top, so I'll instead take a big chance on JOEL DAHMEN also finding something on the greens.
A winner by the sea in the Dominican Republic, Dahmen also has an excellent record at El Camaleon and he's played well here, too. Even last year's missed cut came by a shot after rounds of 69 and 68, prior to which he'd been 22nd and 12th to suggest that it's a venue this arrow-straight driver can be competitive at.
If the rain that's been around early in the week does make this less of a shootout that will be in Dahmen's favour as we do know that putter has become a big problem. In fact he said at the Shriners that it was 'a joke' that was undermining some excellent ball-striking, but I did note him talk about signs of improvement when enjoying his appearance alongside Lilia Vu at the Grant Thornton.
Despite these ongoing putting struggles his last six US appearances feature seventh in the Shriners, 10th in the Barracuda and 13th in the Sanderson Farms so he hasn't been a million miles away, and again we only need to look at a back catalogue which includes fifth in the RSM Classic and sixth at Pebble Beach to know we're hunting in the right sort of area.
Zac Blair is another who fits the bill and he popped up in the Travelers to confirm that these shorter courses are a must when backing him, but I'm going to chance former Sony Open champion PATTON KIZZIRE at three-figure prices.
Kizzire lost his card at the end of 2023 and couldn't get it back at Qualifying School, so there have to be form concerns and to be frank there are others in the same sort of price bracket who have looked closer to their best than he has.
That being said, there's been a notable upturn in the long-game of a player who was once known for being erratic but holing everything, and as he departed the RSM Classic to head to Q School he seemed genuinely upbeat about the future.
"I've tried to keep the emotions down, but they're kind of coming on right now," he said.
"Pretty disappointed, but my game's heading in the right direction. I'm very close to playing really well, so I'm looking forward to the opportunities I'll get and I'm going to do something good.
"I've always had a lot of fight in me, but this is a fight. I wouldn't necessarily say I lost because I can see improvement coming on fast. Like I say, I'm looking forward to the opportunities I'll get.
"I feel like my game is probably better right now than it's ever been, I've just got to get some putts to fall.
"My ball-striking is coming on fast, I'm hitting my driver better than I ever have, hitting really good iron shots at times. Dealing with a lot of emotions over the last several weeks, so that's been something that hasn't necessarily helped me, but I've tried to channel it and focus."
Anyone who follows this sport closely will know we can't always rely on the optimism of golfers who sometimes have nothing more to cling to, but Kizzire's stats support the idea that he's hitting it well and it started to show. Over his final few starts of the year he put together a run of 18 rounds of par or better, including a 63, a 65 and a couple of 66s, and he was close to the lead on several occasions.
To do that without the magic wand that helped him to wins both here and in Mexico has to be encouraging, whether he can earn back his card or has to return to the Korn Ferry Tour, and this is probably the one chance to test that theory. On his favoured bermuda greens, at a course where he has a win, seventh and 13th and has contended on another occasion, he is worth a small bet.
Posted at 1105 GMT on 09/01/24
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