Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open preview and best bets
Eric Cole can bag his first PGA Tour win in this week's Shriners Children's Open according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open
2pts e.w. Eric Cole at 35/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Cam Davis at 35/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. J.T. Poston at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 55/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chad Ramey at 110/1 (bet365, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Tom Kim has played in two renewals of the Shriners Children's Open without yet being beaten, and the Korean youngster is about the same price as he was when defending his title 12 months ago. Simple, right? And to think, you can make it almost 50/1 by doubling him with Jon Rahm, favourite for the Andalucia Masters.
Maybe it will be. Kim is ideally suited to Summerlin, he's got plenty of motivation, and while his side were ultimately well beaten, he did OK at the Presidents Cup. In fact Kim ranked third among the Internationals according to DataGolf's strokes-gained analysis, with his fundamentals – approach play and putting – both firing.
Those qualities have powered Kim's two Shriners victories (fifth and third in approach play, third and fourth in putting) and the only real snag is that since losing a play-off for the Travelers, a lot has gone wrong. First he missed out on an Olympics medal after a poor finish, then he somehow surrendered his top-50 FedEx Cup ranking and all the rewards that brings, and then he was involved in a heavy Presidents Cup defeat even if for the most part he stood up to a quality US side.
I'd still suggest his game isn't quite where it was 12 or indeed 24 months ago and he might face some awkward questions around the abuse he said he suffered from certain US rivals and their fans at Royal Montreal. All of that makes him an unappealing bet at 12/1, though I'm sure some will have expected shorter. The 'three-peat' hasn't been achieved since 2011 but Kim doing it wouldn't surprise anybody, that's for sure.
More difficult for me to answer was the conundrum of Taylor Pendrith, the form player in the field if you ignore the Presidents Cup, where he was unable to deliver the performance many had hoped for and perhaps even expected. Before that he'd been excellent for months, stretching back to his breakthrough in a low-scoring event not unalike this one. Always a fine driver, improvements to his irons and putting took him all the way to East Lake and, unlike Kim, he's in everything next year.
Pendrith was third in this last year without holing a great deal and if that experience of playing for Canada in Canada provides further inspiration then perhaps he will double up to cap a fine season. The thing is, however much he's improved, he was rather gifted the Nelson in the end and it's hard not to remain wary of his lack of ruthlessness and while not something I tend to dwell on for long, at 22/1 you really have to.
Preference then is for slightly bigger prices starting with ERIC COLE.
Summerlin is a relatively short par 71 which is at altitude in Las Vegas and therefore plays shorter still, so it's no wonder driver has never been vital around here. For some, it's too much club to the driveable par-four and everyone here can reach the three par-fives in two, unless they've invited another pensioner to have a go.
Any course where weak driving needn't be a major problem is going to present an opportunity for Cole, whose approach play and short-game are of a very high standard. You could compare him to someone like Luke Donald or even Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Ryan Moore and Ben Martin, all past champions here.
Cole showed his Summerlin potential when storming home for third place on his second try last year, closing with a round of 62, and he'll have wondered what might have been as he was first in the tee-to-green stats, let down somewhat by his putter. That's also what happened last time, near enough, when first in approach play and second from tee-to-green in Jackson, only to rank 63rd in putting.
That club is never far away though and had been good at Silverado, so this feels the right time to return to a player who so nearly won the Honda Classic for us at massive odds in his rookie season. Though a different test, quality approach work and a good week with the putter is the shortened version of what you need at PGA National where, for different reasons, driver isn't everything.
Another recent win on the Minor League Golf Tour can't be a bad thing and while Cole is one player towards the front of the betting who hasn't yet done it on the PGA Tour, we're at the end of his second season and he's generally impressed in the mix. This could turn into a really good chance.
The next two players I like both return from absences which isn't always ideal, but they've done it before at least.
First is CAM DAVIS, who has been a friend to us down the years including when winning his second Rocket Mortgage Classic title in June.
Having followed that with a run of 26-19-MC-40-5, culminating at the BMW Championship, I was staggered to see him overlooked for the Presidents Cup. It's hard to know exactly what more he could've done, except perhaps change his nationality.
The Australian, who had generally impressed on his debut in that competition two years earlier, must feel sick at having been left out and I wonder whether that might motivate him in the way it did Mackenzie Hughes, Lucas Herbert and Ryan Fox, who all stepped up after their respective rejections in 2022.
Even last week, Nick Taylor produced his best golf since the spring after he too was passed over so as far as Davis goes, it would not surprise me in the slightest were he to pick up more silverware in the coming weeks, whether here on the PGA Tour or perhaps back home in Australia just before Christmas.
Certainly, Summerlin is a good course for him to prove a point as he's made five cuts from five starts, finishing seventh last year. Every one of his 20 rounds so far has been par or better and while we could do with him shaving something off his best of 65, that seems perfectly possible.
Returning to those form figures since his win and what makes his absence from Mike Weir's team all the more remarkable is that he's been inside the top 10 of the tee-to-green stats in four of his last six appearances, so providing the break hasn't done him any harm he looks a big threat at a nice price.
Putters preferred for desert shootout
JT POSTON doesn't have the same cause for determination but does have Davis's proven ability to defy a break, because he was third in this last year following two months away.
Explaining that second top-five at Summerlin, he said: "I love the bent greens. I feel like I can putt well out here. Bent greens are what I grew up on, and today was a good example of that. I feel like I definitely putted really well."
Poston is certainly a deadly putter on his day and it's therefore interesting to me that his putter let him down just a little when last seen, hiding some signs of encouragement elsewhere in his game and helping create the impression that he's a bit stuck at the moment.
On the contrary, he drove it better than he has all year at the Wyndham (69-69 to MC) and his iron play has been good in two of his last three starts, including when last we saw him at the BMW Championship.
With his approach play having shone here at Summerlin in each of the last four years I'm quietly confident that part of his game can be relied upon and, as mentioned already, his lack of distance off the tee ought not to be a significant handicap.
That's also true of the two events he's won, the John Deere and the Wyndham, shooting 21- and 22-under in doing so, and with 23 of his 24 rounds at this course par or better, the Shriners would slot in nicely were he to make it a hat-trick of PGA Tour wins.
I'll admit that siding with weak drivers who hole putts makes me generally uneasy but it seems to be where the value lies for a tournament like this one so it's in for a penny in for an ANDREW PUTNAM.
He was among my Dunhill Links selections a fortnight ago and played pretty well, leading the field in greens hit for the second start running but not making a great deal and, ultimately, never quite threatening to get involved at the business end of the tournament.
Still, 25th in a field featuring Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and several more world-class golfers reads nicely in this company and while yet to crack the top 10 at Summerlin, he's been close on three occasions and generally scored well here.
Putnam says he likes the course and has done ever since he played in the final group in round three on his debut a decade ago, so while last year's missed cut was disappointing, that minor blip (via an opening 77) can be overlooked. Previously he'd carded a round of 64 in both 2021 and 2022 and his success at the course has been built on those two fundamentals, approach play and putting.
The latter hasn't hit the heights we know it can lately but I've selected Putnam on two of his last three starts for a reason: I feel he's been a bit of an eye-catcher over the past few months. With some good desert form elsewhere and the motivation of Pebble Beach to play for, he's one I want to be on at 50/1 and bigger.
Carl Yuan improved to finish 11th last week and with his spike potential, the Chinese was considered. He's hit the ball well on both course starts, too, but the trouble is driver is his only reliable club and it's just not enough around here. If he does somehow put two good putting weeks together he'll play much better than odds of 200/1-plus suggest, but that's an almighty if.
Berger a tasty price
He's 127th in FedEx Cup points but the name in 126th is much more interesting, that of DANIEL BERGER.
This former Ryder and Presidents Cup player has been on the comeback trail this year having been absent for 18 months prior to his return in January, and while there have been occasional signs of encouragement it's generally been slow progress.
However, that changed when he contended for the Sanderson Farms, eventually finishing seventh, before last week's mid-pack performance in Utah, where he carded back-to-back rounds of 65 through the middle part of the tournament.
For my money that was evidence enough to suggest that Berger is very close, something he alluded to in Jackson, and he's certainly hard for the market to get right given what we know about his ceiling compared to most of these. It's fair to say only a small group of players come close to matching his CV, and only one or two have achieved more.
Berger gained a degree of notoriety around his 2021 Ryder Cup appearance for the fact that he'd prioritised accuracy over power so again this course ought to be fine, and he suggested as much when 18th on his last visit in 2019. Interestingly that also came during a return to form following injury and he'd gone more than six months without a top-10 finish upon arriving in Vegas.
With two top-10s in Phoenix plus some good form at other desert courses, the fit-again Floridian looks a smashing bet even if the early 80/1 has rightly been snapped up.
I'm not in a complaining mood but did want to draw attention to how close Tom Whitney was to placing at 400/1 last week. He hits the ball very well and I hope he can find a suitable opportunity, or else that he gets his card back via the Korn Ferry Tour where he's sure to be dangerous if showing more signs of improvement with the putter.
He's shorter now for this slightly better event on a probably less suitable course so the only rag I was at all interested in beyond Yuan was actually Francesco Molinari.
Yes, for the most part his form is abysmal, but he has two top-fives in the Middle East over the past couple of seasons and his long-game stats last week in France were of a good standard, particularly his irons which were better than they have been for two years.
Molinari ended up missing the cut on the number after a three-putt bogey during the back nine. That was his first trip back to Le Golf National since his record Ryder Cup display there in 2018 and I wonder if that might inspire him a little bit – the fact he recently said he hoped to play in another Ryder Cup certainly suggests he's not given up on his playing career just yet.
With a Summerlin 61 to his name, that from when he finished fourth on debut, odds of 400/1 are tempting for those who don't mind rolling the dice this close to the Las Vegas Strip.
But it's CHAD RAMEY who completes the staking plan.
He's always looked comfortable here despite the fact that his in-laws live nearby. Jokes aside, that might just help explain why he's taken so well to Summerlin, where his accuracy and putting prowess are both beneficial.
Ramey was the halfway leader on his Shriners debut (finished 14th), sat sixth at the same stage on his return (28th), then produced four more under-par rounds to be mid-pack last year, all powered by the sort of strong driving stats he simply can't produce at most courses.
As well as regularly finding himself close to the lead in this event, that's been happening elsewhere lately, too. He was seventh through three rounds just last week in fact, fading to 21st; he'd also been in the mix at halfway in the Wyndham and the Barracuda towards the end of the regular season, again unable to see it through on either occasion.
Ramey is a PGA Tour winner though and these performances suggest he might be close to contending again deep into the final round. It's more likely to happen here in Vegas than most PGA Tour stops and three-figure prices are worth taking.
Posted at 1100 BST on 15/10/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.