Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley believes Tom Kim can put up a stout defence of his Shriners title as the PGA Tour returns to Las Vegas this week.
Golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open
4pts win Tom Kim at 14/1 (bet365 - 12/1 generally)
1.5pts e.w. J.J. Spaun at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Andrew Putnam at 45/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sam Ryder at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chesson Hadley at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Ryan Moore at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The field for the Shriners Children's Open has taken a bit of a hit over the past couple of years, first with Bryson DeChambeau's defection and now with the absence of course specialist and former champion, Patrick Cantlay.
Whether Cantlay's decision not to play is to do his honeymoon, the new FedEx Cup Fall meaning points aren't on offer for elite players, an issue with the size of his head or the size of his bank account, who can say, but it means star power comes courtesy of two international studs instead.
TOM KIM ought to be shorter in the betting than Ludvig Aberg after winning here last year, and he has the right game for Summerlin.
He showed as much in winning, ranking fifth in approach play and third in putting, and those two aspects of his game have started to fire of late after his first real blip back in the spring.
Kim has finished inside the top 25 in every start since the Scottish Open, including sixth last time out in France following a good Wentworth debut, and this improvement aligns with his rediscovering of the putting form that saw him win twice in four starts this time last year.
I also think there's a potential reason his price is bigger than I expected – a case of mistaken identity. Bookmakers had him down as playing in the KJ Choi Invitational last week under his Korean name, Joohyung Kim. That player shot rounds of 79 and 83 to miss the cut by miles, and there would be a worry about the flight, too.
However, it's not Tom Kim. The player in question is clearly a different person, with a different face, date of birth, clothing manufacturer and whatever else. Unless there's a mistake on the Korean Tour's website, Tom Kim last played in France and he played very well, too.
Refreshed for this, which is a key advantage over his main market rival, he can make a successful first PGA Tour title defence having been denied that opportunity at the Wyndham by the injury he sustained at Hoylake.
For Aberg the worry would be how much he has left in the tank – and it's a big worry, too. Yes, he's 23, but to go from Ryder Cup to Sanderson Farms play-off defeat and now out here to Las Vegas is extremely demanding.
I wouldn't say that Summerlin is ideal, either. When you hit it like Aberg does you can win anywhere, but his driving prowess isn't necessarily as important at this desert par 71 that plays shorter than its yardage up in the thin air of Las Vegas, and it seems a given that he'll have to show a good deal of putting improvement regardless.
Six of the last seven winners reached 20-under or better, the last two averaging 65 strokes per round, and the blend of wide fairways and big greens, newly relaid last year, make this a proper shootout. To my mind that's more Kim than Aberg, for now at least, and he's entitled to be going off single-figure prices.
Hoge has to be left out
With Cam Davis working on a few things, JT Poston returning from a break and Nicolai Hojgaard coming with the same concerns as Aberg, I was sorely tempted to jump aboard the Monday move for Tom Hoge but he's now simply too short for me.
Hoge's 13th place at the Sanderson Farms last week goes down as hugely encouraging as it was by far his best effort at Jackson having played there every year since 2014. Why he keeps going back I'm not sure, but this was the first time he'd cracked the top 25.
In doing so he backed up a top-class set of strokes-gained approach stats from Wentworth, where he was 14th in a stronger field, and since a top-20 finish in Scotland in July his game has looked in really good shape bar a strange performance at the K Club, where he still made the cut.
Hoge has done that in each of his last seven non-major starts and now returns to a course we know he loves, which hasn't been the case for months. In seven starts at Summerlin he's made six cuts, and whenever he's putted to a decent level he's made it pay – seventh in 2017, 24th in 2020, 14th in 2021, and fourth last year.
Gaining 10 strokes with his ball-striking on his most recent appearance was a serious effort and this is one course where he can do that, his lack of firepower off the tee no issue at all. Just like Kim, he can hit fairways, take aim with his trademark approaches and, on a good putting week, be right in the mix.
That performance 12 months ago, which featured rounds of 63, 64 and 65, came off a long break whereas right now he's fully tuned up. At 50th in the world he also has plenty to play for, but he's just not someone I want to be advising at anything under 33/1, and that price is disappearing fast.
There are a number of players in this second wave of the market who made some kind of appeal but few have their games in better shape than JJ SPAUN, who is preferred to Hoge at 40/1.
Spaun has spent a lot of time at Summerlin down the years and his results in this event show how comfortable he is here. In 2017 he led after rounds two and three, eventually fading to 10th, and a year later he again led the field in strokes-gained approach to finish 15th.
More recently he's been back on the bike following a missed cut in 2019 with finishes of 35th and 15th, flying home with a personal-best 64 last year, and at 15th in adjusted scoring there are only five players in front of him who have been regular starters in this event.
Among them is Adam Schenk, who returns following a breakout season, but whereas he could be caught cold, Spaun is sharp following 11th in the Fortinet Championship where he improved with each round and gained strokes through the bag.
Although his results haven't been spectacular, Spaun is currently on a run of 26 par-or-better rounds, one dating back to the first week in July, and as with Hoge this is probably the best course for him since his game turned a corner.
Beau Hossler and local resident Justin Suh both made some appeal but the latter is in a bit of a short-game crisis at the moment and the former looks like a failed experiment, so I'll stick with the general theme of iron play and putting and side with ANDREW PUTNAM next.
Putnam's sole win so far came in Nevada over at the Barracuda Championship and just as was the case then, he's at his most effective when there's no pressure from the tee, and the emphasis is on making birdies.
He shot a second-round 64 on his way to 11th here in 2021 and a third-round 64 to finish 12th last year, while he was the halfway leader on debut, so this is a course Putnam likes much more than Silverado, where he made his return to action with a missed cut last month.
While disappointing, Putnam actually hit the ball to a very high standard only to suffer a rare off week on the greens, something we shouldn't expect to last given that he's one of the very best putters on the PGA Tour.
In fact he's one of a handful of players here who rank inside the top 30 in approach play and putting, comfortably so in the case of the latter, and those weapons have powered his success at the course.
Expect them to do so again with a Nevada double well within his capabilities.
Ryder to remain in the headlines
Another with that kind of profile is SAM RYDER, who sits just ahead of Spaun in the FedEx Cup standings, both of them one big week away from unlocking the big events in the early part of the 2024 season.
Ryder was fancied by many to do that last week but while 51st might seem disappointing, his record at Jackson now reads MC-MC-MC-51-45-51. It was just about as well as he's ever played there.
In contrast, he's been third, 18th and 28th at Summerlin, all of his success the product of quality approach play. Ryder currently ranks ninth among this field for the season, behind leader Hoge, and he's fifth in putting, one place behind Putnam.
Again that's my formula for the week and while Ryder's driver was poor in Jackson, we at least saw a step forward with the putter and that should have him primed for this easier test. It's one we know he loves and among his last 16 rounds here, Ryder has shot a nine-under 62, two 64s, two 65s and two 66s.
It's a seriously good record from one of the PGA Tour's better maidens and at 80/1, he's a fun each-way bet.
Course specialist Matt NeSmith has been trimmed from the same price and I prefer CHESSON HADLEY, another who has been there and done it at Summerlin.
Hadley is 26th in putting and inside the top 50 in strokes-gained approach so again that statistical profile is there, while as with Hoge, Putnam and Ryder his game has been ticking over really nicely, with eight cuts made in nine.
Although unable to kick on from an opening 64 in Mississippi, that at least holds up his price and I was really struck by his bullishness after that eight-under par start.
"I've been feeling good," he said. "I feel dangerous. I'm feeling dangerous right now. I feel like some of the hard work and some of the shot shape change that I've done has paid off, and my game feels good.
"Just need to keep it going. The gas is on the right."
Hadley said he was hoping to take care of business and join his family on holiday but having failed to do so he's here in Vegas with the same goal in mind, motivated by the fact that he lies 127th in FedEx Cup points and is in danger of losing his status for 2024.
Three of the five players in last week's play-off had started that tournament in a similar predicament and Hadley, who has faced the same pressure more than once before and overcome it, might be just as dangerous as he says he is now his back is firmly against the wall.
There's no course like Summerlin for him on the circuit, either. He's been fourth, fifth and seventh in the Shriners, was 18th when putting hopelessly in 2019, and has shot under-par in 20 of his last 21 rounds, the exception a level-par 71.
I see no reason he can't contend again in what's a weaker-than-usual field.
Moore signs of life
Alex Smalley has the tools for this and is respected following a solid return to action, while I did consider Tyson Alexander at enormous odds, but in the end it was RYAN MOORE and Russell Knox who completed the shortlist.
Knox has a good record here and having sided with him at 100/1 last year on the back of two top-30 finishes to begin the season, he was quite hard to leave out having done the same thing again.
However, I do struggle to see him winning a shootout and while the same is to some extent true of Moore, at his best these were very much ideal conditions for this UNLV graduate and longtime Vegas resident.
Summerlin has been Moore's base for many a year and he was an impressive winner of this event in 2012, when he opened with a 10-under 61. Also a winner in 22-under at the John Deere Classic, where he beat a subsequent Shriners champion, shootouts on shorter courses were his bread and butter.
Aged 40 he's no longer the force of old but he was still 28th here last year and I think his form is better now, particularly his long-game. Moore has gained strokes off the tee in his last five measured starts and in four of them, his approach play has been among the very best in the field. That's serious hitting.
Now, his chipping and putting leave plenty to be desired but he putted these greens nicely last year, again despite arriving in something of a putting rut, so if it's going to happen anywhere it might just be at Summerlin.
Moore's one-time career money exemption runs out at the end of 2023 so it's off to Qualifying School if he doesn't do something soon and that's not where you want to be heading at the best of times. Now there are only five PGA Tour cards on offer so Moore would be odds-on to drop down to the Korn Ferry Tour for the first time in his career.
Given that he's not always loved the life of a touring pro I'm not sure whether he'd even want to go and grind at that level, so it may be now or never for this accurate ball-striker who was 11th at halfway in the Fortinet, and would be fancied to stick around much longer if able to establish that kind of platform here.
Posted at 1700 BST on 09/10/23
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