Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open preview and best bets
Adam Hadwin can go well in the Shriners Children's Open according to Ben Coley, who has a range of big-priced selections for this week's PGA Tour event.
Golf betting tips: Shriners Children's Open
1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 60/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 80/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Russell Knox at 110/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. James Hahn at 160/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kevin Yu at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Ten Presidents Cup players help shape the market for the Shriners Children's Open, a longstanding PGA Tour event which typically develops into a shootout and one which has thrown up a number of shocks down the years.
Favourite is Patrick Cantlay, whose victory here in 2017 came under atypically difficult conditions. It always looked like it would be the first of many and his tally now stands at ten, including a couple of the lowest-scoring events on the schedule and generally on the kind of bentgrass greens he's greeted with here at TPC Summerlin, a course he loves. He's the best player and has a favourite's chance.
Sungjae Im isn't far behind and the defending champion has moved closer to Cantlay since the betting opened, rightly so. He ended the 2022 season as one of the form men on the circuit, almost stealing the FedEx Cup, and continued in that vein for the Internationals at Quail Hollow. These are two elite golfers with whom it is hard to find fault.
However, the sublime weather forecast suggests conditions will be ideal at this par 71 which features the off-the-shelf, risk-reward holes of TPC and indeed resort-style, desert golf. It means that we should get beyond 20-under for the winning total and to my mind this is one of the most unpredictable tournaments on the schedule, partly because of timing, depth and the number of new players we're still learning about, but also because it favours no one particular profile.
Driving the ball well would be my starting point but that doesn't necessarily mean driving the ball long, with Kevin Na, Ryan Moore, Ben Martin, Rod Pampling and Webb Simpson among the last 10 winners. Either through length or finding fairways, players do need to give themselves the opportunity to attack with their approach shots and unless we get a freakish putting display like that which Na produced, expect the sort of balanced display produced by Im to be reflected on this year's leaderboard, too.
Desert specialist set to shine
Certainly, I don't want to get into anyone at short prices. Aaron Wise for instance first came to prominence here, where he's spent a lot of time, and was one of the very best golfers among those who didn't win last season. Indeed he could well have merited a place in Davis Love's side but instead comes here after a five-week break and, despite putting improvements, far from guaranteed to make his share.
Taylor Montgomery is Vegas-based and should continue to putt well, but 28/1 about a Korn Ferry Tour graduate in a field which has some strength to it looks extremely short to my eye.
Soon we're down to those at 40/1 and bigger and the two who appealed most were Cam Davis, who has a nice record here and putts best on bentgrass, and Si Woo Kim, for whom the Presidents Cup might just have been a turning point.
But a little further down the betting we come to ADAM HADWIN, who has a straightforwardly nice profile for the event even if you don't, as I do, buy into the idea that he'll be extra motivated here.
Ryan Fox said a month ago that he had fire in his belly having been overlooked for the Presidents Cup and, despite a knee injury, it didn't take him long to win his second title of 2022. Mackenzie Hughes also felt he might have been selected and has started the season superbly, winning for the first time since 2016. Behind him were the likes of Dean Burmester and Emiliano Grillo, while in Europe we saw Lucas Herbert go close in Italy.
These might all be coincidental, but this time last year the first two events of the season went to Max Homa and Sam Burns, two of the last names off the list for the Ryder Cup, and I am a firm believer that amid the grind of life on the PGA Tour, those who are playing for something more than money or even a trophy are often at an advantage.
Hadwin of course is also a compatriot of Hughes and it was he, rather than any of those mentioned including Fox and Herbert, who was last off Trevor Immelman's list. Surely, seeing what Fox and Hughes have done, he too will be focused on proving a point of his own.
Remember, focus is not something we can ever take for granted – sometimes, players go through the motions. And when Hadwin was fourth here in 2019, he made reference to the fact that impressing Ernie Els was at the forefront of his mind.
All of this is speculative but what we know for sure is that Hadwin has his conditions. In six starts here he boasts three top-10 finishes, often hitting it really well and certainly enjoying these greens. He's shot 59 at PGA West, another desert venue over in California where he's gone close to winning several times. His record in Phoenix might not be so obviously impressive, but he's made seven cuts in a row there and was in contention for that title back in February.
Fourth at TPC San Antonio in April adds another layer of substance to an excellent record in the desert and he's an ideal type for a shootout when everything is firing. On that score, his first start in six weeks saw Hadwin get back to hitting quality approaches to finish 45th, the same spot he filled in the Sanderson Farms last year before returning to Summerlin and stepping up massively for sixth place.
Something similar is anticipated and having seen Hughes win to climb from 82nd in the world to 51st, Hadwin will know this is an excellent opportunity not just to prove a point, not just to win his second PGA Tour title, but to climb back towards that all-important top 50 and potentially seal a return to Augusta in the coming weeks.
Major winners worth chancing
Martin Laird's victory here two years ago served as a reminder that desert form tends to hold up well, and it's why I have to give GARY WOODLAND one more chance before the year is out.
I've selected the former US Open champion five times this year and while the best he's managed is eighth, for the most part he's offered promise. That was true back in the spring when contending in Texas (desert golf), but it was also true when down the field in the Fortinet Championship on his Silverado debut.
Woodland's approach play there was top notch and so was his driving last week, ranking first in strokes-gained off the tee through two rounds of the Sanderson Farms, where again his irons were very good. Short-game issues have confined him to 64th and then a weekend off and they're a big worry, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt now heading to a course he knows and enjoys.
Three visits to Summerlin show finishes of 18th, 10th and 55th, his approach play inside the top 10 on the first two and his driving improving with each start. It's a solid record which includes rounds of 63 and 65 and serves as part of Woodland's desert oeuvre; a record of high-class performances at golf courses very similar to this one.
It includes wins in Phoenix and Reno, a play-off defeat at PGA West, ninth at The Summit Club and two top-10s at San Antonio, so returning here for the first time in three years makes sense and merits another go at 66/1 and bigger.
Ben An has a similarly strong record in the desert, particularly on the DP World Tour where 16 starts across the UAE and Qatar show 14 top-15 finishes. That plus the frequency with which he's contended in Phoenix mark him down as a potential threat at big odds if he can improve his approach work, which was ultimately what cost him the title in the Fortinet Championship three weeks ago.
He's respected along with Joel Dahmen, classier than his odds but with serious putting issues, but I'll side with another former major winner in JASON DAY.
It's fair to say the Aussie made a quiet start to the new season with a missed cut in the Fortinet, but that was his course debut and he misfired badly off the tee, barely hitting a fairway and ranking among the worst drivers. That would be more of a worry had he been driving the ball poorly for some time but the opposite is in fact true – he'd gained strokes off the tee in six of his previous seven starts.
In recent years and indeed on occasion when at the summit of the sport, it was Day's approach play which sometimes held him back, and that's a source of big encouragement as he seeks a return to where he belongs. Five starts running now he's gained strokes and at Silverado, he was fifth in the field at the halfway mark.
Unfortunately he was 142nd in putting and this once reliable tenet of his world-class game has become anything but. Still, he has a volatile record with the putter of late, not a bad one, and that's good news when it comes to chancing an outsider. Rather than consistently putt slightly worse than the field, he tends to dart around the map and as he's historically been very good on bentgrass, I'm comfortable taking my chances on improvement there.
It's also worth saying that he played well at times during summer and into autumn, leading the Wells Fargo at halfway, signing off with a 66 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for a top-20 finish, then opening with rounds of 67 and 65 in his final two starts. He remains hard to get a handle on, particularly health-wise, but his best form is still of a very high standard even if it comes along only fleetingly.
And then we come to Summerlin, where he shot 64-65 for fourth place a decade ago, his second start following on from a solid debut in 2008. He's only been back once since, shooting an opening 68 but missing the cut in 2020, and I do feel it's a good course for Day, who has won at Dove Mountain and been runner-up in Qatar as well as winning at Bay Hill, like Laird, Pampling and Bryson DeChambeau.
Perhaps he'll be spurred on by the Presidents Cup, too. When he missed the 2019 renewal due to injury, he came out and finished 16th and fourth in his first two events of 2020 (the Presidents Cup was in mid-December) and was contending for majors come the autumn. Things have gone downhill since but his long-game suggests a change of direction is imminent.
Opportunity Knox for steady duo
Callum Tarren has a good record at altitude and continues to improve, but preference is for RUSSELL KNOX at a similar price.
Knox seems to occupy the same sort of position in the market regardless of his game these days, and I think this is a good time to back him following finishes of 25th and 24th to begin the campaign. I put him up at 66/1 here in 2014 when placed despite a poor final round, and that was the third time in as many visits that he'd been in the mix at a course he likes.
Subsequent performances reflect a general downturn in his game but his trademark approach play is firing on all cylinders now, ranking 14th and seventh so far this season having been catching the eye towards the end of the previous one. Better yet, he's gained strokes with the putter in four of his last five starts which represents big improvement having lost strokes in 13 of his previous 15.
As well as those contending efforts here in 2012, 2013 and 2014 he has a very solid record in Phoenix and three top-20s at PGA West, so I suspect all we need to get him involved again is a handful more fairways and continuity with the putter. The former feels very attainable at a far less daunting course off the tee than those we've had to start the season, and he looks capable of getting back in the mix.
Chris Kirk, KH Lee and Nick Hardy all make some appeal at standout prices but less so at those generally available, while Justin Suh's performances so far haven't been good enough to play the local angle which I'll come to later. Davis Thompson and namesake Riley both remain on the radar but the latter was hopeless off the tee last week and Thompson may find more suitable opportunities to come.
I'll therefore stick with someone who has been around the block and back again, often against his will judging by his twitter account, in JAMES HAHN.
Once the darling of social media thanks to a Gangnam Style dance at the Phoenix Open, Hahn's move into PGA Tour avuncularity has seen him opt for the slightly crazed, ranting version, rather than the one who buys his nephews drinks at family birthdays.
In this fickle game he can restore a level of popularity by having a good run at this title as his long-game right now is in fantastic shape, having been driving the ball well for months and produced three top-class displays of approach play in his last five starts, including on his seasonal return in California.
Curiously, he gave away almost six strokes around the green there, just as he had at Southwind when last seen, which leads me to wonder that when he lent Viktor Hovland his driver in Mexico late last year, did the Norwegian pay for it with his short-game?
Perhaps there's some deep-rooted issue which I'll learn more about while obsessively staring at shot tracker but these could well prove to be two freakish performances which mask a heck of a lot of positives, extending to a better putting display in the Fortinet.
If that's the case, here we have a player who was fifth in a low-scoring 2020 renewal of the Shriners, and who subsequently looked like he'd win the Phoenix Open when bursting clear the following February. Hahn ended up beaten by four, but he'd played the final eight holes in four-over, so he really ought to have won.
Two PGA Tour wins confirm he can get the job done though and fourth at PGA West is another nice form line for a Californian who is more than capable of defying odds of 150/1 – providing that is he remembers what to do when he does miss a green.
Finally, over the years we have seen some big performances at big odds from young players, many of whom know this popular practice venue really well. Harry Hall was the latest example a year ago, Suh before him, A.J. McInerney and also Wise, who was in the mix here as a 20-year-old when living in Vegas.
KEVIN YU may not strictly qualify on the local front but he is based in Scottsdale having gone to college at Arizona State, so there's certainly a level of comfort in the desert which helped him to 27th place here last year.
Since then he's come through the Korn Ferry Tour thanks to three top-three finishes from May to August, and before that we caught a glimpse of what this formerly top-ranked amateur can do at this level when seventh in Puerto Rico. As it happens, that event does correlate well with the Shriners through Laird (sixth), DeChambeau (second), Martin (third), George McNeill (first) and Troy Matteson (second).
Yu has form at altitude, too, having lost a play-off in Colorado, and this excellent driver of a ball has made a rock-solid start to life as a PGA Tour rookie. It is of course early days, but he ranks sixth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, seventh off the tee, and would've sailed through to the weekend in Napa with anything like a behaving putter.
That club improved in the Sanderson Farms where he drove the ball well every day and among all the Korn Ferry Tour graduates, his has so far been the most impressive long-game. Whether that will continue we do not know, and consistency is something he's still to demonstrate, but this will be the first time he returns to a course where he has positive experience having hovered around near the top of the leaderboard throughout the 2021 renewal.
Yu did everything to a decent standard that week but it was his putter which did most of the work and if he can find another step forward for a second go on these greens, the rest of his game is right where he needs it to be. At 250/1 and upwards he has to be worth a dart having got into the field late on a sponsor invite.
Posted at 1200 BST on 04/10/22
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