Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Scandinavian Mixed preview and best bets
Ben Coley tipped the winner of last year's Scandinavian Mixed at 150/1 – find out who he fancies for this year's renewal.
Golf betting tips: Scandinavian Mixed
2pts e.w. Henrik Stenson at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Jason Scrivener at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 60/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Daan Huizing at 150/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Renato Paratore at 300/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
"I am delighted to be part of the ______. Rarely there is an opportunity to play new formats on the Tour, and the event in ____ offers a whole new experience for players, fans and TV viewers," explained Bernd Wiesberger in a press release last week. What do you think he was talking about? The cash-up-front LIV Golf opener for which a former world number one has been humiliatingly called in to try and get rid of some free tickets? Or the Scandinavian Mixed, where men and women will compete in the same event, on the same course, for the same money?
How stark a contrast, and how unfortunate that Wiesberger – who has shown a reluctance to experiment in the past – could not have found something better to say, or said nothing at all. The Austrian, so likeable in so many ways, has of course chosen to take money which doesn't really come from LIV Golf, nor even from the so-called Public Investment Fund, but from the Saudi royal family. He had two formats to choose from this week, and has gone with the least experimental, the least progressive, but by far the most lucrative.
Wiesberger, 36, perhaps isn't allowed to make his confession: that with just over €15m in European Tour earnings and without a PGA Tour card to complicate things further, he feels he cannot pass up the golden ticket offered by LIV, however stained in blood it may be. That is his prerogative and there are many who will support not just his freedom of choice, but the logic in his decision. If only they, like Wiesberger and his maladroit PR team, would find it as easy to pick from one of the following two options: defend it in good faith, or not at all.
And so to those who are in Halmstad for this fabulous event. We shouldn't kid ourselves into believing that there are none who would rather be earning much more in Hemel Hempstead, but for now they are here, and they'll be involved in something special. Golf has been and remains a sport undermined by inequality, and anything which attempts to change that must be celebrated – whether it's Walton Heath hosting sessions for Muslim women, Mombasa charity Glad's House, Anders Mankert's Golf Scholarship programme, or these early signs of progress among the most powerful tours in the sport.
Last year's inaugural edition provided a thrilling finish, Jonathan Caldwell posting a clubhouse target which Adrian Otaegui clumsily failed to match. Noticeable come the end of the event was an absence of LET players on the leaderboard, Alice Hewson in third the only female member of the top nine, with just two among the top 17. That suggests an imbalance, either in course set-up, strength of the respective challenges, or perhaps even the added pressure LET players faced. Caldwell winning wasn't a particularly big story, but when a female player wins this tournament, it will be.
It's difficult to get a firm handle on any measures taken to avoid a repeat, but last year's leaderboard was in keeping with similar events held previously. When the Vic Open was played across two courses in Australia, scoring in separate men's and women's tournaments was very different: the men's were won in 19-under and 18-under, the women's in eight-under. In the 2019 Jordan Mixed Open, which also featured senior male players, one Ladies European Tour member made the top 15, albeit she very nearly won.
Perhaps the move from Vallda to Hamstad will help in some way, but the difference in set-up length is just under 900 yards which is similar to 2021, and may not be enough. This is an extremely weak field on the men's side, whereas the top eight on the LET's Costa del Sol Order of Merit are taking part, but a betting preview must acknowledge what I believe to be the current reality: that it is far more likely that the winner is from the DP World Tour than not.
Finally, a word on the course. Halmstad played host to the 2007 Solheim Cup won by a charging United States side and the 2011 European Amateur Championship, but it's 20 years since top-level men's touring professionals came here. Whatever evidence we have is therefore dated, so while it suggests that thanks to tree-lined fairways and Halmstad's proximity to the sea scoring isn't easy, the fact that this is a par 72 which doesn't reach 7,000 yards suggests it won't be too difficult even if forecast rain arrives.
Comparisons with heathland courses in Surrey make some sense and accuracy off the tee might even trump power, although that wasn't the case in Belgium when Sam Horsfield and Ryan Fox duelled for the Soudal Open title. Form there and in the Dutch Open should nevertheless be worth something but with some members suggesting these fairways are wider than they first appear, good wedge players and those with tidy short-games are where we might be best focusing our attentions.
O Captain! My Captain!
Few are better in that regard than Alex Noren, the world number 60 whose form carries real substance in this company. Noren might not have won since 2018 but he's been operating at a far higher level, he's won twice in his homeland before, and missing the cut by a couple of shots in the Memorial isn't a problem. In fact, it could even be taken as a positive, as he'll arrive here fresh and well and as by far the most likely winner.
At 10/1, however, it's hard to argue there's great mileage in backing him so I'll turn to the star name and co-host, HENRIK STENSON.
Unlike Noren, Stenson hasn't had to fly in from the USA as he featured in last week's Porsche European Open. Finishing 34th was a solid effort on balance, especially given that he needed to birdie his final hole on Friday to make the cut, instead making a brilliant eagle before embarking upon a quiet weekend climb.
Once more, this performance was built on solid foundations as he was accurate off the tee (11th) and produced good approach play figures, ranking 30th in a week where the bare numbers themselves are very volatile. One bad swing at the wrong time at Green Eagle, which Stenson produced on a couple of occasions, and water makes for a big loss in strokes-gained terms. For the most part he was much better than that.
Before returning to Europe, he'd gained more than a shot and a quarter per round over 36 holes of the PGA Championship, and closer to two during the Byron Nelson, narrowly missing each of these cuts because his short-game let him down. Fundamentally, though, these tournaments were played on long courses in elite fields, where I wouldn't have expected much from him.
Back home and on a short, tree-lined course like Halmstad, Stenson should benefit far more from his continued ability to find a fairway, and his precision approaches. No, they've not been at the levels which took him close to the top of the sport, but they've really not been far off, and four rounds of what he produced in the Nelson would carry him a long way in this company.
As for the short-game, his putting has improved throughout each of his last four starts and he's still solid around the green, so I think he's quite close to getting everything together. Key to doing so in a tangibly significant way is the drop in grade, as we've seen from Victor Perez, Horsfield and to a lesser extent Matt Wallace recently, plus Rafa Cabrera Bello, Matt Fitzpatrick and Danny Willett late last season.
In fact, we can add Stenson to that list, too. He returned to Europe last year to miss the cut in the European Open and then finish 23rd in this, before later that summer finishing fourth in the Czech Masters, third in the European Masters, 15th in the Italian Open and 30th at Wentworth. What happened when he went back to the deeper waters of the PGA Tour? He missed his next couple of cuts.
The reality is that this is a world away from the sport's best circuit, and having recently been named Ryder Cup captain for 2023, then inducted into the Swedish Golf Hall of Fame on Monday, Stenson is in a great place to capitalise on a genuine opportunity. Winning in his homeland, something he last did on the Challenge Tour in 2000, might be one of his few remaining goals as a player and this is a good chance to do just that.
Sebastian Soderberg and Alex Bjork help give the home team a strong hand and have to be respected given how weak this field is, but MARCUS KINHULT and JOAKIM LAGERGREN are equally dangerous and preferred at the prices.
Kinhult has done extraordinarily well to get his career back on track having been diagnosed with epilepsy last spring. Following three months away he struggled for most of 2021 until signing off the season with a round of 64, and then getting back to work as he adjusts to the new challenges he's now facing.
Reward came in low-key fashion with a return to the Nordic Golf League in February, winning one of two events held in Spain, and he showed the benefits of that when eighth in Kenya and third in Qatar as the DP World Tour returned from its latest mini-break.
Results since have been less impressive, but he was 12th at halfway in the ISPS Handa Championship, narrowly missed the cut a week later, and then sat second at halfway before fading to 27th in the British Masters. All three offered promise, and following three weeks off he again only narrowly missed the cut in the Dutch Open.
Better will be required but Halmstad could be made for him, as it's a short course where his lack of power isn't a problem. His short-game should do plenty of damage as one of the best in the field, and success here probably depends on his approach play, which has admittedly been pretty poor across this run of four events.
However, that had been true prior to winning the British Masters and 25-year-old Kinhult already appears very dependent on a certain type of course in order to produce his best. Muthaiga was one, Doha we already knew he liked, and given a strong record at Wentworth (12th and 10th from just four tries) and Crans (ditto), I suspect this place will be another.
As for Lagergren, we do of course have to accept that his position in the betting has dramatically altered on the basis of one week in Germany, where he finished fifth to end a run of missed cuts in what's been a generally unimpressive campaign so far.
However, his win by the coast in Sicily came on the back of a similar return to form, and in 2020 he produced back-to-back top-five finishes seemingly out of the blue. In 2019 he managed three top-10s in six starts, the first of them in the Scandinavian Invitation, and he played really well a week after losing a play-off in Qatar five years ago.
The point of all this is to say that while Lagergren is one of the game's more erratic players, when something clicks he tends to squeeze plenty out of it, and his long-game was certainly very good in the Porsche European Open. As one of the deadliest putters around that bodes really well, and so does the fact he's produced plenty of good golf at Wentworth including last September.
At his most effective by the coast – the five best performances of his career all came under such conditions – and with plenty of good results on tighter, tree-lined courses, perhaps Halmstad's rare blend of parkland golf within a stone's throw of the sea will provide the platform he needs to contend for the second week running.
Aussie to rule at long last?
John Catlin's winning form on other short courses, and the fact he has winning form at all, puts him towards the top of the shortlist, but this looks another good chance for JASON SCRIVENER to finally shed his maiden tag.
In fairness to the Aussie, he's one of those who hasn't had many chances to win and has instead found himself on the periphery of things all too often, but that wasn't the case in this event last year. For the first time in his DP World Tour career, Scrivener shared the 54-hole lead, and after an eagle at the sixth hole he was in command of the tournament, only to play the remaining 12 in five-over to lose out by six.
How he'll fare if such a chance arises again we'll have to see, but having opened 69-63 on his previous start in Sweden and also placed in the Made In Denmark last year, he should relish a return to these parts and to the style of golf he prefers. It's certainly a more suitable course on paper than Green Eagle, the monster upon which he improved to finish 25th last week, having been well down the field on his previous visit.
Scrivener's performance in Germany represented a continuation of the form he's shown for much of spring, and but for one shot in the Dutch Open he'd be on a run of 10 cuts made in succession. Throughout this sequence he's produced quality iron play, his driving last week was as good as it ever is, and it's fair to expect his putting malaise to end soon as that club has been among his most reliable down the years.
In this company, he'd look a solid runner wherever the tournament was being held. That it's in Sweden, on a shorter course which is by the sea, only increases his chance and of all this week's selections, I'll be most disappointed if Scrivener doesn't play really well.
Ashley Chesters is a late entrant who will love the look of this place and as the most accurate driver on the circuit is respected, with Matthew Southgate and Shubhankar Sharma others to note at nice prices.
Next for me though is DAAN HUIZING, an underachiever who might just kick on following his first DP World Tour top-10 last week.
A one-time amateur star on this side of the Atlantic, Huizing has proven a class act on the Challenge Tour but hadn't really bridged the divide until last week, where he stuck around throughout on a course which is longer than he'd like.
Previous standout performances came in events won by Catlin, Dave Horsey and Raphael Jacquelin, three short, accurate types, and that's Huizing's game, too. It's why I expect he'll prefer Halmstad to say the far bigger, more modern PGA Sweden National, which is where he made his only previous appearance in Sweden at this level and still fared well for a time.
Huizing's effort last week, founded on quality approach play (1st GIR, 7th SG: Approach), was not out of the blue, nor is it impossible to explain. He'd played pretty well in the British Masters and the Soudal Open, too, and while disappointing in the Dutch Open, did at least appear on television to reveal he's only recently asked his partner to caddie for him.
It was clear during that on-course interview how delighted the two were with the way things had started so to see the reward of a big cheque in Germany will only reaffirm that they've made a great decision, one which could be vindicated further if he can pick up where he left off in Hamburg.
Huizing won the Jordan Mixed Open in 2019, so he's been there and done it in this kind of event, and he played nicely in the 2011 European Amateur held here. The course hasn't changed much and what a great time it is for the Dutchman to return to a place he visited when one of the best young players around.
Roll the dice with Roman Renato
Joel Sjoholm has been chipping away and could be another Swedish player to give the home fans something to cheer. He's close friends with recent winner Thorbjorn Olesen and while hard to get right, has shown on several occasions that his A-game can win a tournament like this, while more recently he's made his last two cuts having been close to doing so in Spain.
But while there are big risks hence a big price, I can't resist chancing former Nordea Masters champion RENATO PARATORE.
Still just 25, Paratore is a two-time DP World Tour winner, first holding off Fitzpatrick, Olesen and a host of other classy types to win here in Sweden, and then taking the first full event back in the summer of 2020, the British Masters, at the expense of Rasmus Hojgaard.
Since then, this wild driver has generally struggled and already in 2022, he's missed 10 cuts, the only exception when 40th in Kenya and that thanks to a red-hot putter. This explains why he's as big as 300/1 and there's a good chance he spends far too long in the trees to do much better here.
But those trees also give us hope, because like a handful similar players Paratore has shown time and again that courses like Halmstad can in fact help rather than hinder. He's been seventh at Wentworth, twice seventh at Crans, sixth at Eichenried, eighth and 10th at Dar Es Salam, seventh at Glendower, and managed somehow to avoid disaster for a top-10 finish at Green Eagle, too.
That's a catalogue of form which suggests he might just enjoy this place, but it wouldn't have been enough were his long-game numbers still ugly. However, back at Green Eagle last week he hit the ball as well as he has since winning the British Masters two years ago, missing the cut by a shot having three-putted the 17th green, his closing birdie not enough to sneak through. Paratore's other bogey on the back-nine was also a three-putt, his usually sharp short-game letting him down.
If he hits the ball as well in Sweden as he did for two rounds in Germany, I'm convinced he'll make the cut. That plus the fact we know his best is better than most of these makes him a smashing way to speculate, whatever comes of it. Irons off tees to avoid the trees, please Renato.
Posted at 1750 BST on 06/06/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.