Phil Mickelson is worth chancing at a massive price in the Saudi International according to Ben Coley, who also has a 350/1 first-round leader fancy.
Golf betting tips: Saudi International
2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Mathiam Keyser to lead after R1 at 350/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
How to watch the Saudi International on TV
FreeSports (Sky channel 422, Virgin 553, Freeview 65, BT 64) are showing live coverage to UK and Ireland audiences at the following times:
- Thursday & Friday: 0800-1000 GMT
- Saturday & Sunday: 0830-1300 GMT
The field for the Saudi International, an Asian Tour event, is dominated by players from the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. Such are the times. Golfers would argue, and with some merit, that they are independent contractors who should be able to play exactly where they like, but in doing so here they ensure that Asian Tour regulars are probably playing for bottom tier of the prize fund pyramid. With so many of the raiding party also collecting handsome appearance fees from the House of Saud, it is a tournament which lays bare the divide between those at the top of the sport and those trying to get there, and reveals the diminishing importance of sport's fundamentals: soul and competition. Whatever Dustin Johnson does this week, he'll return home with another big cheque, and little concern for what he gives away in return.
Johnson is 8/1 favourite and with form figures of 1-2-1 here at Royal Greens, a course made for his game, he would look a bet were all things equal. Last week he returned from a prolonged break with his long-game in excellent shape, gaining more strokes with his ball-striking over 54 measured holes than he has over 72 anywhere since he won this event last year. Johnson was dominant at the time and underlined his superiority by defying a poor putting performance to win convincingly. He might not be the same player now, but the stats from Torrey Pines hint at yet another revival from the player who, we shouldn't forget, was devastating at the Ryder Cup.
The trouble is, all things may not be equal. Right now, the weather forecast for this part of Saudi Arabia suggests the wind will come, and probably midway through Friday's play. Banking on a 48-hour wind forecast is far from a flawless idea, but all negatives have to be considered when supporting short-priced golfers. Johnson has the AM-PM draw which could face markedly tougher conditions during the second round and this seems the best way to cut through the world-class players who shape this tournament, among whom surely lies the champion.
Second-favourite Xander Schauffele is also out early, and both Tyrrell Hatton and Cameron Smith, who have a better set of tee-times, are up against it on this long course which has favoured big-hitters more significantly than virtually any other so far. Year one saw Johnson beat Hao-tong Li and Tom Lewis, the former making four eagles in one round to demonstrate that driving par-fours is a frequent option for a select few. Min-Woo Lee, Alex Levy, Scott Hend and Ryan Fox were also inside the top six on a seriously power-packed leaderboard, and we got a similar one last year when Fox again hit the frame behind Johnson, Finau, and Justin Rose.
The fly in the ointment is the 2020 edition won by Graeme McDowell, because that's the one which featured a persistent breeze, and we should get something like that throughout the weekend whatever happens on Friday. Nevertheless, big-hitters swarmed around McDowell late on, and the former US Open champion needed all of his nous and short-game skills to fend them off. He simply looks an outlier, and though Smith and Hatton are both capable of emulating him, the percentage call looks to stick with those with more at their disposal from the tee.
Despite his advancing years, PHIL MICKELSON still qualifies and though he couldn't be labelled a percentage call, at 150/1 with what looks a great draw, he's well worth a roll of the dice.
Mickelson was third here behind McDowell and though he's very much one who plays the game from a media perspective, his comments on the course have never wavered. After his very first round at Royal Greens, Mickelson spoke of how much fun it was to play; how difficult conditions still allowed you to attack in places, and how undulating greens and a sea breeze spoke to his creativity.
Last May, he won the US PGA Championship at a similar price under similar conditions, relishing a challenge at Kiawah Island which threw up an Open Championship leaderboard, with Shane Lowry and Padraig Harrington close behind. His form prior to that event had been poor, and until he calls time on his PGA Tour career it will always be worth remembering that when conditions suit, Mickelson can conjure something magical from seemingly nowhere.
It's what he did at Kiawah Island, and it's what he almost did here, in 2020, when following a pair of missed cuts in the US with third place in this more relaxed setting, with a smaller and weaker field and a course which encourages attacking golf. Two years on and he again comes to the Middle East after a poor start to the campaign, but just as was the case back then, he's been talking a good game. "I love the challenge and I had some really good things this last couple of months in the off-season or last few months as I got ready for this upcoming season and I think that I'm going to play some good golf," he said in Hawaii, and that's almost a cut-and-paste job from what he said before threatening to overhaul McDowell here.
Mickelson got off to a solid start under lower-scoring conditions last year before fading at the weekend and though there are few positives to be drawn from his play lately, we're compensated by a massive price. Remember, he won the PGA at similar odds; this is far weaker, the field is far smaller, he has shown what he can do at the course and, crucially, he might just be on the right side of a significant draw bias. With all of those factors in mind, the risk that he shoots himself out of it in a few holes on Thursday afternoon seems more than acceptable. He simply cannot have the same chance as Ratchanon Chantananuwat, Sihwan Kim and Andrew Dodt, and is backed accordingly.
Had the early 40/1 about Joaquin Niemann lasted then he'd have been selected, the Chilean having surged to a top-10 finish at Torrey Pines, where everything worked. He has all the power and all the creativity required and tees off alongside Smith, just after Mickelson, on Thursday afternoon. Not only are they out early on Friday, but significantly so: Mickelson will be out in the third group to go.
Bryson DeChambeau is in the next one and at 14/1, having shot a couple of 65s en route to sixth and 18th place here, there could be some mileage in supporting the beefed-up American. That said, his driving so far this year has been alarmingly poor, barely gaining strokes last week having ranked a lowly 33rd in Hawaii, and there are also fitness concerns to factor in. Given that he's not yet proven to be totally adept in the sort of wind we might see at the weekend, it's difficult to have faith in him upping his game as required.
Rock on, Tommy...
Instead, I'll take TOMMY FLEETWOOD, who tees off with DeChambeau and Lee Westwood.
Fleetwood was a huge eye-catcher in Dubai last week, for all his final round did not go to plan as he dropped to 12th, the product perhaps of some in-contention rust. Still, the big picture is that he led the field in strokes-gained approach for the first time since the 2020 Portugal Masters (a correlating event), producing some of the best figures of his career, and at last married up the driver, too. Fleetwood has built his career on that club and in ranking eighth in Dubai, did enough to suggest that it is back close to where he needs it to be.
Only in the Dunhill Links at St Andrews did Fleetwood produce such an excellent off-the-tee display in 2021, a year plagued by an apparent two-way miss which saw his main strength become a weakness. There was even more substance to his effort in Dubai, where he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and it was clear throughout that he was greatly encouraged by his play but felt he wasn't quite scoring as he ought to.
Again, that might reflect the fact he's seldom been in the mix, second place in Italy the exception and a performance which depended on his putter. Expect better when next he finds himself on the first page of the leaderboard and it could be here, where he struck his irons nicely on his sole visit to date but wasn't driving the ball well enough and suffered too around the greens. A year on and with the weekend winds sure to suit, this becomes an ideal challenge for a player who is edging back towards his best.
At 25/1, Fleetwood is narrowly preferred to Thomas Pieters, who could well make it three wins from five but at 18/1 is just about short enough. Pieters put behind him a poor record in the Dubai Desert Classic with another rounded performance and his record here is very strong, finishes of 22nd, third and 10th largely undermined by the sort of poor putting which might just be a thing of the past. His looks a massive chance but I can let him go at the odds.
Matt Wolff, Lucas Herbert, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia are other long drivers who fit the bill in terms of draw and skill set, but the first two haven't hit the ball well enough over the last few weeks and both Casey and Garcia are what they are. With the winner firmly expected to come from towards the top of the betting, and potential fliers Adri Arnaus and Laurie Canter both out late on day two, I'm content with just two outright selections.
Ignore usual suspects and back Keyser
There might however be some mileage in the first-round leader market, won by Pieters in 2019, shared by McDowell and Gavin Green in 2020, and then blown apart by Dave Horsey's brilliant 61 last year. Three of the four teed off early, McDowell again the exception to the rule, and the first three last year were all from the morning wave. As of now there is a moderate breeze forecast for day one but it is due to increase steadily as the day goes on, and this half of the draw may realise they'll need to capitalise on a calm morning before things get tougher on Friday.
There's of course every chance someone like Johnson stamps their class on proceedings but I prefer Scott Hend and MATHIAM KEYSER at the odds and will settle for a small bet on the latter.
Hend plays with Green and James Hart du Preez in a three-ball of obscene power, the latter one of if not the longest-hitting professional on a major circuit but yet to show he can harness that strength at this kind of level. Green has an excellent course record but the, ahem, green shoots of recovery we saw towards the end of 2021 have since disappeared, although his first-round 66 in Portugal (third) does offer some hope that he can produce for 18 holes as he did here with a fabulous 64 in 2020.
It's Hend who I prefer of this group, after he carded a round of 63 to climb more than 60 places on the leaderboard in the second round here on debut. The popular Aussie is blessed with fast hands and real power, and with seven of his eight rounds here having been under-par, he's put it to use at Royal Greens. The concern is his ongoing health issues which contributed towards a withdrawal in Abu Dhabi, though he did hit the ball better despite a narrow missed cut in Dubai and could build on that, and a pair of late-year top-10s in Asia, when he tees off on Thursday morning.
Keyser has less of the health risks but is not of Hend's class, however he played well to come through a 36-hole qualifier for this in Abu Dhabi last week and there are a few small reasons to hope for the round of his life. The South African first of all hits the ball a long way and has stacks of experience in the Middle East, having been based in Dubai for a long time – he in fact plays out of Jumeirah Golf Estates, which hosts the DP World Tour Championship.
Ranked 1701st in the world, he almost certainly won't be a factor come the weekend but we have seen him prove competitive in rare starts outside of Asia, notably when missing the first-round lead by a shot in Kenya last year at a course which favoured those who go after reachable par-fours, such as the ninth hole which he eagled in a round of 65. On his next start, he carded a second-round 64 in Denmark which just two players bettered, and bogey-free rounds of 68 through the middle of the tricky Czech Masters saw him make a big move at a course where Saudi specialists Green and Pieters have thrived.
At the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic, his second-round 68 was sixth-best in a high-class field (only Fleetwood, Bezuidenhout, Perez, DeChambeau and Pepperell went lower), just four players beat his second-round score in the Challenge Tour's German Masters last year, and if these are cherry-picked examples it should be noted that he's played fewer than 20 tournaments across the European and Challenge Tours. In Asia that number climbs to 23, including his latest appearance three weeks ago when Keyser sat fifth after round one in Singapore, the second time in three starts he's been inside the top 10.
There are rounds in the eighties on his CV, too, and away from the Asian Development and MENA tours he's not managed to put four good ones together. However, 18 memorable holes at a course which would seem to suit, close to his longtime base in the Middle East, with a small field and a potentially good tee-time, might be within reach. As such a minimum-stakes bet at no shorter than 200/1 is the advice.
Posted at 1220 GMT on 01/02/22
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