Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship preview and best bets
Seamus Power can land a PGA Tour hat-trick by capturing this week's Sanderson Farms Championship, according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship
2pts e.w. Seamus Power at 25/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Taylor Moore at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chandler Phillips at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Pierceson Coody at 100/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Wilson Furr at 225/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Ryan Brehm at 750/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The volatility of golf and golf betting can be neatly summed up by last year's Sanderson Farms Championship, where a five-way play-off went to Luke List. That play-off featured two Swedes, one of them long, the other short; it also featured four of the best putters in the field that week, and one of the worst. In the end, it was won by a player from that group of best putters, one who historically has been by some way the worst of them.
To a degree, this exists every week. Guilty though I am of expressing frustrations (some might call it exorcising demons) via social media, I'm well aware that we don't control anything here, and that when we win, we're always a bit lucky. Hideki Matsuyama holed a lot of putts at Southwind and that was not why he was selected. The unspoken bit of every preview is this: hopefully things fall their way if I'm right about them playing well.
The lower you go down the ladder, the more these unpredictable factors influence the outcome, and I've sometimes felt that the Country Club of Jackson is one of those courses which exacerbates things. This is an old, tree-lined track in Mississippi and like Silverado over in California, you can get lucky off the tee, some poor drivers having gone close. In the end, though, quality long-games have still won the argument and even more so in recent years.
Sergio Garcia (2020) and Sam Burns (2021) both absolutely dominated the field from tee-to-green, the latter winning despite a poor putting week, and had Ludvig Aberg taken that play-off last October, we'd be talking about three champions in four who put their ball-striking prowess to use without paying the price for missing all those close-range birdie chances.
With length a definite advantage (we've a driveable par-four together with four par-fives and some fine drivers have won here), my approach is generally to side with strong drivers like List and hope they putt like List did a year ago, rather than how he has putted throughout most of his career.
In SEAMUS POWER, we've a strong driver whose putter is often a strength and I make him the man to beat.
Power contended here on debut in 2016 and said he loved the place as soon as he arrived, before returning a year later to contend once more. His form coming into each of these renewals was poor, too, and he really is comfortable at Jackson Country Club.
Four subsequent visits have been slightly less encouraging but he does still boast four top-30s overall and I really like where he is at the moment, having returned from hip surgery, gradually pieced things back together, and ended the PGA Tour season with his best performance of the year when 10th at Southwind.
A slow start meant he could only manage 26th in the Irish Open afterwards, but Power isn't a links natural anyway and should be far more comfortable back on the PGA Tour, where both of his wins came in this sort of grade, including at this time of year in 2022.
He hasn't missed a cut since the US Open and with top-20s at the Heritage, Wells Fargo and Travelers before 10th at Southwind, Power has been producing good golf in high-class fields. Anything like that sort of level and he really should be a factor back in a tournament he likes to play.
The one worry would be his approach play of late, but among four negative performances in five starts we've two on links courses and another at Southwind, where four good shots can be ruined by one bad one given the hazards which colour that course. It's probably not been the best time to judge anyone's approach work and it isn't a big worry.
At 56th in the FedEx Fall standings, Power is one big performance away from unlocking starts in the big PGA Tour events early next year and anything upwards of 20/1 looks smashing value. He's a confident selection for the grade.
Although both JJ Spaun and Maverick McNealy made my list of players to follow during this part of the season, they were disappointing in different ways last time. Spaun in some ways continued his good run but 26th having been favourite during round two was disappointing. McNealy, meanwhile, was never at the races and missed the cut.
Either or both could of course bounce back but at twice the price, I'm inclined to take a chance on the talented TAYLOR MOORE.
He's not kicked on since winning the 2023 Valspar Championship, but this sneaky-long driver who can light up the greens still has scope to leave this sort of level behind, and this looks a suitable opportunity to show it.
Moore's win at Copperhead might well be a good pointer in itself, as Sam Burns and Peter Malnati have won both events despite this one being in its infancy. Regardless, Moore's wider form at Sedgefield, Detroit, Southwind, Sawgrass and Harbour Town points to a preference for this sort of classical course, while top-fives in Houston and at Sea Island confirm this is (broadly speaking) the right part of the US.
Born and raised in Texas and then having attended college in Arkansas, which borders Mississippi, these conditions are familiar to Moore and I can very much see him stepping up a gear following a largely quiet end to the season, which nevertheless saw him finish 12th in the 3M Open not too long ago.
The absence since Southwind is a bit of a negative, but Jackson is a good course for him, one where he's been 17th and 24th as a PGA Tour member having threatened that sort of finish before a poor final round playing on an invite back in 2017. That's in fact the only one of 12 in which he's failed to break par, and Jackson was later the scene of his first PGA Tour top-20 finish.
Strong off the tee on debut (second), eighth on approach last year and generally good around the greens, the one thing he's yet to do here is light it up with the putter. Moore though is very much capable of doing that and with bermuda greens certainly no negative, he's a 50/1 chance with plenty of upside given his ability.
Ranked just outside the world's top 50 and 64th in the FedEx Fall, he also has a lot to play for and providing he's ready to go, this horses-for-courses golfer looks a big player.
Friends reunited in final group?
So does CAMERON CHAMP and to an even greater extent he has plenty of motivation as his exemption ends this year and, at 165th in FedEx Cup points, he's staring into the abyss. Cracking the top 150 should be seen as a minimum target and really he wants to be climbing inside the top 125 to get his full playing rights for 2025.
One of the longest hitters in golf and a three-time PGA Tour winner, Champ clearly has the ability to do it and he won't come to a better course than this one, having won here on debut, put up a decent defence when 28th, and been ninth last year following back-to-back missed cuts.
Throughout these three appearances he's driven the ball to an astonishing level even by his standards, ranking second, first and first, and he returns having rediscovered his best off-the-tee game over the past few months. Nobody drove it better over the first two rounds of the Procore and he ranked third at the Wyndham before that.
Champ's approach play has quietly taken a pretty big step forward and he's gained strokes putting throughout his last six starts, with his chipping therefore the only issue. It's a big one, too, as he's among the worst on the PGA Tour, but to win this he's going to need to be hitting plenty of greens anyway and I don't mind chancing what happens when he misses one.
Granted, his form looks poor, but he was 12th at the 3M Open three starts ago, another event he's won, made the cut at the unsuitable Sedgefield, then missed by a single shot at Silverado, where he gave away a season's-worst four strokes around the green in just two rounds.
Every season so far on the PGA Tour he's produced at least one top-10 during the autumn, except for the one where he had to draw stumps due to injury, and this proven winner has a massive chance if he continues doing what he's been doing the last few weeks at the course where he won for the first time at this level.
I'm also quite keen on his close friend CHANDLER PHILLIPS, even if he wasn't necessarily the type of golfer I wanted to be siding with.
Unlike my other selections, Phillips tends to get better the closer he gets to the hole, and his short-game certainly powered 13th place in the Procore Championship last time.
However, four starts running now he's driven the ball well, that having been an apparent weakness earlier in the season, so with his approach play above-average, everything seems to be coming together nicely.
Born and raised in Alabama, he's another southerner who won't mind conditions and it was in fact here in Jackson that he made his PGA Tour debut five years ago, missing the cut but ranking among the best drivers in the field, only to make very little.
Since then he's climbed the ladder and as well as almost winning the Valspar, a good pointer to this, he had previously been second at Highland Springs. Former SFC winner Mackenzie Hughes has won there and last year's play-off second Henrik Norlander very nearly did, at another low-scoring par 72.
Whatever the merits of that link, we're in the right part of the world, in the right grade, for a player like Phillips. Hopefully he and Champ can both find their way into the mix as it was alongside Champ that Phillips hung tough for most of that final round in the Valspar.
Next up is PIERCESON COODY, undoubtedly one of the most promising players in the field.
A three-time winner in just 33 Korn Ferry Tour starts, Coody very nearly added a PGA Tour title to his collection when runner-up in the ISCO Championship, played at a course where you pound driver upon driver and hope to hole enough putts.
Also fifth at the Charles Schwab, he hasn't missed a cut since May and as far as that Highland Springs connection goes, that was in fact the scene of his third KFT win just last summer.
Long off the tee and capable of fireworks on the greens, the fact that his approach play at the Procore was as good as we've seen it is the icing on the cake and while he's a debutant here, there's nothing complicated about the course.
It might just be made for him and if anyone is to blast and putt their way to this title, it could well be Coody.
Furr to purr at home course
The case for WILSON FURR is pretty simple despite big odds: the combination of his performance last time and where he now heads.
Furr is from Jackson, he's a Jackson Country Club member, and he won the Gator Invitational at Jackson Country Club in 2017, having previously lost a play-off for it. He knows the course inside-out.
Granted, he's had two cracks at this event and fared badly, but he now returns as a PGA Tour member whose latest performance, 13th in the Procore, was his best yet. It was built on strong foundations too, as he'd gained strokes through the bag come the end of the week.
In the mix entering the final round, that experience should've done him some good and we are talking about another big-hitter. He's not played enough rounds to qualify for the official distance stats, but would be around 18th in both driving distance and distance of all drives.
Once a top-100 amateur and medallist in the US Amateur in 2020, it's not as if he's without pedigree and I do like the fact that he came good under pressure on the Korn Ferry Tour, earning his PGA Tour card on the very last hole of the season.
He'll need to find something again from way down the FedEx Fall standings but with his wedding coming up and off that standout performance in California, things are looking up. Perhaps he can give the home crowds something to cheer.
Finally, the smallest of bets on rank outsider RYAN BREHM completes the staking plan.
Brehm has been hitting more greens lately and given that his short-game can be poor, that's what he needs to do. It's why he almost made the cut at Silverado, before which he opened with a round of 66 at the Wyndham.
He's still very solid off the tee and with his approach work strong in the Procore, his long-game might just be in the sort of shape needed to make the weekend and give us a run for our money at huge prices.
It's probably not a coincidence that his best form this year came at the driver-heavy Torrey Pines, where he sat second at halfway, and his prowess with that club has been on display at Jackson when he was 18th on debut, ranking 10th from tee-to-green and fourth off-the-tee.
More recently, he's putted well on his last couple of starts here and given the potential for a powerhouse to go and eat alive the scoring holes, and the lack of depth in this field, this is the one tournament in which I'd be prepared to take a very small chance on a player far more likely to miss the cut than he is to threaten the places.
Brehm has though won on the PGA Tour and he was quite impressive under the gun in the Zurich Classic earlier this year. The FedEx Cup points he earned that week mean he's one good performance from conditional status, an excellent one from keeping his card, and at 300/1 and bigger I don't mind speculating.
Posted at 0930 BST on 01/10/24
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