Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship preview and best bets
After kicking off the FedEx Fall with a winner, Ben Coley has five each-way selections for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship
3pts e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Beau Hossler at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Davis Riley at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Erik van Rooyen at 90/1 (BoyleSports, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Matthias Schwab at 400/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Now that the Ryder Cup is behind us, the FedEx Cup Fall dominates the remainder of the PGA Tour calendar with six events in seven weeks that will determine who stays and who goes, whether that's to Qualifying School or back down to the Korn Ferry Tour.
We're one event in and, perhaps fittingly, it was won by someone who couldn't alter their status for 2024. Sahith Theegala finished 31st in the FedEx Cup and in 31st he shall remain, as those inside the top 50, should they elect to play in these events, are frozen until January and the beginning of the new season.
Among the assembled field for the Sanderson Farms Championship, Emiliano Grillo, Eric Cole, Lee Hodges, Adam Svensson and Tom Hoge are in that bracket and it'll be interesting to see if it proves advantageous as this new era evolves, but favourite is Ludvig Aberg, the Ryder Cup record-breaker who will earn plenty of starts due to that alone, but who officially still has a bit to do in order to pick and choose his schedule.
More of a concern is what state he'll be in. Flying over from Rome and those late-night celebrations to make his Sanderson Farms debut and first start as the favourite, it feels like a big ask for someone who has been busy. Aberg is clearly the real deal and has already won a DP World Tour event despite putting badly, but short odds in the circumstances are easy enough to pass up.
Jackson Country Club is certainly vulnerable to his powerful game and driving distance is more important here than it is your average course, but Peter Malnati and Ryan Armour are two extremely short hitters who feature on the roll-of-honour. Both putted the lights out on these smooth bermuda greens and that switch from the poa annua of the Fortinet could again prove significant.
You'll have gathered by now that the field lacks depth and it looks an excellent chance for STEPHAN JAEGER to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.
The German didn't choose to take out DP World Tour membership this year despite performing to a level which should've had him on the Ryder Cup radar, perhaps a reflection of the fact that the United States has been home for a long time now.
Jaeger went to college in Tennessee and now lives there, so playing in Mississippi is probably to his advantage and while his putting numbers are pretty even regardless of the surface, this year all of his best work has come away from poa annua – hence it's easy enough to excuse a bad week on the greens at Silverado last time.
Otherwise, Jaeger's game remained in the sort of shape it's been in for months. He's not missed a cut since mid-April and has become one of the most reliable ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, some achievement for a player who once said that chipping are putting were his strengths. Bar a strange performance at the Charles Schwab, he's been a tee-to-green machine in 2023.
Among this field he's first in that category over the last 50 rounds and nobody has played to a higher standard over the last 24, short-game included, so while it might seem strange to see his name towards the front of a market, he's earned it.
Jaeger's course record shows three top-30s in his last four visits and in each of the last two years it's been those old chipping and putting strengths that have kept him on the fringes of contention, so with his improved long-game in mind it looks an ideal fit at the right time and in the right sort of company.
He has correlating form via the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Wyndham Championship and the Honda, the latter two of course involving bermuda greens, and is on record in stating he's 'happy here' and 'likes the golf course'. Back him to show it at anything bigger than 16s.
Go in again with Beau
I was really keen on BEAU HOSSLER last time and on the face of it he was disappointing, yet on the other hand he finished 30th driving the ball appallingly – and I think this is probably further evidence that he's as good as he's ever been right now.
Before the Fortinet, Hossler had been driving the ball really well, gaining strokes off the tee in every single start since the Heritage in April, and on reflection it might just be the nature of Silverado that was the issue. Hossler's off-the-tee rankings there now read 70th, 71st and 62nd.
In contrast he's been here twice and both times ranked inside the top 20, finishing 10th on debut and midfield due to a misbehaving putter next time, so we have reason to believe that the one thing that kept him out of things in California might be right back on track here in Jackson.
If that's the case, his improved iron play (positive in five of his last six starts) and generally excellent putting, together with some of the best around the green numbers in the field, make for a pretty compelling profile and he's exactly the type of player I can see flourishing in these weaker fields the Fall Series seems set to provide.
Hossler has correlating form having contended at Pebble Beach, where Malnati, Armour and Nick Taylor have all either won or gone close, and played well at the Honda, but to be honest we don't really need it – he was a contending 10th when out of form in 2017 and returns a much better player.
KH Lee is a two-time winner who found form at the Fortinet but his record here is pretty poor so among others priced at 50/1 or shorter, only Alex Smalley and DAVIS RILEY appealed.
Both return to action having been absent since the Playoffs and that's a potential negative, but where Riley is concerned I draw encouragement from Theegala's victory and that earns him the vote.
Theegala said at the Fortinet, played in his home state, that the combination of it being an important event to him and having missed East Lake so narrowly meant he got straight back to work and felt razor-sharp, keen to capitalise on a big opportunity which he went on to do in some style.
Well, Riley calls this, his hometown event, his 'fifth major' and it seems fair to assume that he'd have played in California if he felt that was necessary in order to prepare. Presumably he's been working extremely hard at home and it's even possible he's been to Jackson for a scouting trip.
"This is my fifth major, so it's definitely one I've had chalked up on the calendar and would have liked to have a chance to win at one day," he said last year. "I grew up right down the road and played a good many high school events here and have a level of familiarity there.
"I believe I won once or twice out here. I think we probably played five or six times out here, so I know I won a couple times."
Riley hasn't quite demonstrated the worth of that experience just yet but he was the first-round leader on his way to 19th place last year, and his first two appearances, including a good T39, came before he was a full PGA Tour member, with the other a missed cut on the number soon after gaining his card.
Last year's effort came despite some shocking driving and in general that club has been much better of late, while his winning chances elsewhere have come at similar courses like Copperhead and Colonial, the latter in particular tending to prove a good form guide for this event.
Riley is a PGA Tour winner on bermuda greens in Louisiana thanks to the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and when he does capture his first individual title, I suspect it'll be come close to home. They don't come any closer than the Sanderson Farms and I can't let him go unbacked at 50s.
Van Rooyen finding form
Alex Noren is of some interest at a standout 66/1 as he'll be motivated by the Ryder Cup and his form prior to the Fortinet, where he putted poorly on poa annua, was encouraging. He should enjoy this course, has correlating form, and might've made the staking plan had more firms offered those odds.
Instead I'll move further down to ERIK VAN ROOYEN.
This proven PGA Tour winner is back to full fitness now and it's showing, with two top-10s, two narrow missed cuts and finishes of 16th and 30th making up his last six appearances across both main tours.
He's driving it to a very good standard and his approach work has been even better since the start of September, ranking 18th, 13th and fifth, so while his run of results is regressive on the face of it (8-16-30) that simply comes down to the putter, which was cold in the Fortinet.
In general that club has been solid of late so while he'll never win any prizes for his chipping, van Rooyen looks to be hitting peak form ahead of his debut at a course where his driving prowess clearly can be advantageous.
At three-figure prices he looks the standout each-way value further down the market, as a back-to-form, classy player who currently sits on the PGA Tour bubble at 126th and has every incentive to take care of business.
Among the many outsiders I looked at was Wesley Bryan, whose driving had been pretty good until one of those shockers you feel is never all that far away.
Otherwise he played nicely out in California, missing the cut on the number, and while he was in good form at the time his 12th place here after a slow start in 2020 is eye-catching. Bryan's iron play and putting are good enough to contend if he can keep it in play off the tee and he's shot plenty of low numbers since summer.
Preference though is for MATTHIAS SCHWAB, who I had half an eye on for the Fortinet and was quite glad to see miss the places in 11th.
That in fact was ideal, as it gave substance to some encouraging ball-striking numbers in July and August, without seemingly convincing many people that his game has turned a corner – hence odds of 400/1 in places.
Schwab though has now hit quality approaches for three events running, very much his bread and butter when on song, and led the field in greens hit there at Silverado. Ranking fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, a good week with the putter and he'd have hit the frame.
That club has been poor for a while and there's no guarantee a change in surface sparks improvement, but it has been a strength in the past and with his long-game ticking over nicely now, he'll have had plenty of time to work on his putting over the last couple of weeks.
Having studied in Tennessee and since made Florida his base, bermuda greens might just help and although he's yet to play well here, he's only arrived in good form once and missed the cut on the number because of some anomalous around the green stats.
It's the sort of course he's tended to enjoy in the past and Schwab, a big talent who is still young at 28, could be capable of earning back his playing rights from 134th in the FedEx Cup standings.
"Long game was as solid as I expect it to be, which was nice to see after so many months (years) of struggling. An encouraging side note for me is that I lead the field in greens in regulation. Lets go!" was his Instagram reaction to that step forward at Silverado and at 200/1-plus, he's worth chancing to take another here at Jackson Country Club.
Posted at 1030 BST on 03/10/23
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