Ben Coley's golf betting tips: RSM Classic preview and best bets
After two 45/1 winners in his last four PGA Tour previews, golf expert Ben Coley has selections at a range of prices for the final event of 2024.
Golf betting tips: RSM Classic
3pts win Davis Thompson at 22/1 (General; 26.0 Betfair Exchange)
2pts win Brian Harman at 30/1 (General; 36.0 Betfair Exchange)
1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 60/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 75/1 (Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chandler Phillips at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Robby Shelton at 350/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Will Gordon at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Troy Merritt at 400/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
When previewing the Bermuda Championship last week, I wrote that it probably wasn't the time to get stuck into one of the favourites; that we might be better of waiting a week for the RSM Classic. No, 300/1 shot Rafael Campos wasn't on my list and no, Greyson Sigg finishing T9 after a three-putt at the 17th hole was not ideal, but concerns surrounding the favourites were at least justified.
The trouble is, now that the RSM Classic is here, I don't know as I feel as bullish as I had expected to feel. This is a good field, better than last week, but defending champion Ludvig Aberg is back from surgery, Denny McCarthy hasn't played since August and a few others are either hard to win with or hard to fancy under the particular conditions of this event, held at Sea Island and filling its typical end-of-year slot on the PGA Tour schedule.
DAVIS THOMPSON, then? Yes. Just about.
Thompson was on my mind immediately, partly because he knows Sea Island so well with maybe 100-plus rounds to his name. His dad, Todd, is even the Tournament Director, so while there are dozens of players in this field who have played both Seaside and Plantation courses many times, his is a unique kind of home advantage.
He was 23rd here while still an amateur, too, a nice bit of nepotism setting him merrily on his way, and won the Jones Cup nearby in a cakewalk a year later (later succeeded by Aberg). And I am a very big fan of Thompson, who is more than capable of joining Akshay Bhatia, Austin Eckroat, Nick Dunlap and a few others as Ryder Cup candidates, perhaps even of jumping ahead of them in the queue.
At the same time, I have to acknowledge that since field-leading tee-to-green performance back in 2019, he's been poor here. That simply has to be a concern and while you may initially read win-only as a sign of bullishness, know that it is the opposite: I want Thompson on side and feel he's value in a field which isn't as strong as it first appears, but want to keep stakes limited and will sacrifice the place part to do so.
Eckroat though made it two wins for his breakout year with a brilliant display in Mexico and, granted a good start, I can very well see Thompson doing something similar to underline the depth of talent among young US golfers once more.
No Harman trying
The reason I'd expected to be having a good go at this event might be because the stars well and truly aligned last year, with Aberg, Mackenzie Hughes and Tyler Duncan giving us the 1-2-3. So rarely do things go this well that it didn't even dawn on me during Sunday's final round that it would be better were Aberg to stumble and open the door for one of the other two at considerably bigger odds.
Aberg was returning to a course he fell in love with as an amateur and I'm not surprised he's back to defend despite recent surgery. It's a pity he couldn't make it back in time for the DP World Tour Championship but one way or another, he was always going to find somewhere to warm up for the Hero World Challenge, Tiger Woods' lucrative, exclusive event which is coming up in December.
Such was the dominance of his victory and such is his talent that Aberg winning straight off the stretcher wouldn't surprise anyone. He shot 61-61 over the weekend, remember, registering a PGA Tour record total of 253 strokes, which is usually enough to complete 60-odd holes but almost never 72. It was an imperious display and as we look back, it's almost impossible to reconcile the fact he hasn't actually won anything since.
I couldn't entertain backing him at 10/1 though and that goes for almost all of the favourites save one other exception, BRIAN HARMAN, who hasn't had as bad a year as you might think.
I'm not sure he merited selection for the Presidents Cup ahead of a rejuvenated Justin Thomas and even one or two others, but talk of Harman's demise has still been a bit dramatic. He's played 24 times and missed just two cuts and while some of that might be thanks to these Signature Events and their lack of one, for the most part he's been solid.
Ninth at the Travelers, 12th at the Heritage, second at The PLAYERS, 12th at the Arnold Palmer, 18th at the Sony and fifth at the Sentry is a decent return, largely built across courses we know he likes, and while McCarthy and Aberg return from absences, he got that out of the way with a lucrative trip to Macau last month following some signs of encouragement in the Playoffs.
Finishing 13th there doesn't tell us much but Harman hasn't played a lot of golf in Asia, hardly any in fact, so it was probably a decent effort in a low-scoring event and might just tee him up nicely for this one. Harman is yet another Sea Island resident but unlike some, he's shown he can deliver on the golf course(s), finishing second in 2022, fourth in 2017, 10th and 14th on other occasions and once leading after round one.
It's a really solid record he has and these two short courses, one of them particularly exposed to what could be a decent sea breeze over the first two rounds, set up well for him. Accuracy trumps power here with driver far from a necessity and there's no denying that, as in Bermuda last week, the roll-of-honour at this similar pair of courses features many a good putter.
That club won Harman an Open Championship and while it hasn't always fired since, his best putting performances have been in Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Hawaii, all bar one of them on bermuda greens like these. If he's to light up that flat stick, there's a good chance it happens here, close to home, for a player who was born and raised in Georgia and has long made his home on Sea Island.
Harman touched down here with that Claret Jug in hand last summer, welcomed home by his fellow residents including tournament host Davis Love and his friend Harris English. He hasn't won since but won't have had many better chances than this, so I'm happy splitting stakes with Thompson and forgetting about those places.
English remains in form thanks largely to his putter and along with Eric Cole is respected, but I'll move along to bigger prices and get ANDREW PUTNAM and DANIEL BERGER out of my system before the year is out.
Putnam in fairness has only been selected three times but all since August, first missing the cut by one in the Wyndham, then finishing a good but not great 25th in the Dunhill Links, before a closing 64 for 16th place in the Shriners, where he improved as the tournament progressed.
Given that my line during this spell has been that he's not far away, you'll forgive me for stating that he hasn't been far away in any of these tournaments and that was again the case last week in Bermuda, where a late rally saw him miss the cut by a single shot just as he had at Sedgefield back in the autumn.
Five top-30s from his last eight starts speak to a player who is waiting to burst through with a big week and in his case, the signs of improvement from his once-deadly putter, combined with his typical accuracy, some quality approach work and high-class numbers around the green, are all indications that he can do something granted the right course.
Both Seaside and Plantation certainly qualify as he sat fourth through 54 holes when 12th on debut, closed well for 37th in a stronger renewal in 2020, then opened 65-63 to share first at halfway two years ago, when again I'd selected him. Putnam faded to 21st after a poor final round which he'd started in third place. More 'close' without yet lighting that cigar.
The final point to note is that he has a place at Pebble Beach to play for, one of his favourite courses and one at which he's had a chance to win. It would be fitting were he to end an enormously frustrating run with his second PGA Tour win, in turn booking a ticket to his favourite event on the schedule.
Berger, well.
He fell from 124th to 127th in the FedEx Cup standings last week after finishing down the field in Bermuda, although it was only thanks to a gutsy Friday back-nine that he was able to make the cut and avoid falling even further behind, not the first time recently he's shown really class under the gun.
The former Ryder Cup star and major contender now comes to Sea Island needing a big week to salvage his card and while you might roll your eyes if I say I think he can do it, having selected him three times to no avail lately, what's inarguable is that this is a good event for him on paper.
Berger's form at PGA National (2nd), Southwind (1st), Colonial (1st), Pebble Beach (1st), River Highlands (2nd), Waialae (7th) and a handful of other short or shortish courses generally correlates well with Sea Island, where like so many from the southeast he knows the courses from his amateur days.
He's actually only played this tournament once, largely because he hasn't needed to, and that came 10 years ago where he bagged his very first top-25 finish on the PGA Tour. Perhaps then it's a fitting place for him to return, his career path less certain than it has been at any time since, and take care of business.
At 80/1 I feel it'd be premature to get off the train with one stop remaining and the good news is, if he does fail then he might have to go to the Korn Ferry Tour next year where I'll be able to forget all about him.
Phillips to turn the screw
Lee Hodges won the 'Back 2 Golf' event held here in the Covid summer of 2020, beating English, Jim Furyk and several other PGA Tour players, and his long-game is in excellent shape right now. The trouble is the putter is in crisis mode and I can't find reasons to believe that's about to change, which alone is enough to leave him out even at 100/1.
When selecting Greyson Sigg last week I did write that we could be early, as he's another Sea Island resident with strong form in this event. Having finished ninth, one stroke shy of the places, the fear of being proved correct is genuine, but he was quickly supported from 80/1 on Monday and is now on the limited price-wise, his putter also a worry.
One man we should be able to rely on in that department is improving rookie Jacob Bridgeman, who played well here two years ago on an invite when straight out of college and again, has plenty of experience at Sea Island.
With six top-30s in his last eight starts and 21 good rounds from 22 during the FedEx Fall part of the season, this dynamite putter from neighbouring South Carolina has to be respected, but the more accurate CHANDLER PHILLIPS might be ready to contend as he did at the Valspar Championship earlier this year and gets the vote.
I was really impressed with the Texan there, especially as he held it together after being shaken up when his ball struck a spectator during the final round. Hopefully we get another look at him in contention this weekend as I suspect he'd do himself justice were a chance to arise.
As for why it might, he's the sort of solid all-rounder this event often serves up: accurate off the tee, capable of really good weeks with his approaches and certainly one of the better putters in this field, which is pretty much the sort of combination I'm looking for.
His form is also good, as he finished 13th and 33rd to begin this second part of the season, missed the cut at high altitude and then from a bad draw at the Shriners, and has been 33rd and 20th since, first on his debut in Japan and then after a slow start to the event in Mexico where again the weather played a part early.
Phillips has stacks of course experience from the SEC Championship and, unlike Bridgeman, has a pro win to his name on the Korn Ferry Tour. That came in windy conditions in 14-under, the sort of score that used to win this before the easier Plantation was included, and given the forecast over the first two days we might be closer to that than Aberg's 29-under from a year ago.
Finally, three massive outsiders made my shortlist and I'll include each of them, starting with ROBBY SHELTON.
He showed much more in Bermuda last week, climbing inside the top 150 in FedEx Cup points with a top-20 finish and it probably should've been better, as he gave away five shots over the closing eight holes of the tournament.
Given that he missed a stack of opportunities on Saturday it was a case of what might have been for this four-time Korn Ferry Tour champion who, hailing as he does from Alabama, has always looked most comfortable in the southern states. Three of those wins came across South Carolina and Tennessee, the fourth in Nebraska.
His course form is rather all-or-nothing (MC-MC-10-MC) but his tee-to-green stats from last year's missed cut were near identical to those of 2022 and he just needs to take care of the easier Plantation, which he's so far yet to really do with a best of 68 from four tries.
Something closer to 64 might be needed to build a platform but he sounded up for the challenge in Bermuda.
"It's been not very good, it's been very slow," was how Shelton categorised his year. "Kind of changing swing instructors and it's been a grind. Played well last year, but just didn't have the same feelings, trying to be too perfect. But now I feel like I'm super calm this week and these last two events just going to give it all I've got.
"I think it's good for me, honestly. You know you have to play well and you know that you need to win. A top-five would be great, but you're really looking for the win. You're not looking at the cutline, you're going out to win. That should be your mentality every week, but that's just not the case sometimes."
Clearly, things didn't work out after a brilliant start to Sunday's final round as he proved unable to deal with the rising winds, but Shelton has serious amateur pedigree, has gone close to winning on the PGA Tour and made it look fairly routine on the Korn Ferry Tour. I've always liked him and have to have him on-side back in Georgia now that he's built something of a platform.
Get with Gordon
Next is WILL GORDON, who I admit is hard to get a handle on. His last two starts have been in events without strokes-gained data and let's face it, even without those numbers we can see that his best result all year is 35th in Utah last month.
Languishing at 197th in the FedEx Cup, Gordon does have something of an excuse as he was out injured from February to June, and if there's one place where it could pay to roll the dice it's here at Sea Island.
With a scoring average of 67.21 from 14 rounds (both courses are included in this calculation), Gordon's adjusted figure is fifth best among all those to have played at least three of the past five renewals of the event, and again he's a Sea Island resident who has shown he can deliver.
Hailing from North Carolina and having studied in Tennessee, this is the right part of the world for an undoubted talent and he did show a little more last week, lying 15th through 54 holes and therefore close enough to the places had he delivered in the final round.
That didn't happen but with rounds of 62 and 63 from his last two RSM Classic starts, together with form figures of 10-MC-15-36, I'm happy to roll the nice on a player who has gone very close to winning by the coast in Mexico and at the short River Highlands.
Finally, TROY MERRITT is the kind of class act who could deliver this week's story and climb from 146th in FedEx Cup points.
He's been around a long time now and it's notable that since he came here and did what he had to do to keep his card as a rookie way back in 2010, he's always kept it. That meant going to Korn Ferry Tour finals once, and last year it meant climbing to 124th during the FedExCup Fall, but one way or another he's survived.
This will be his biggest challenge yet but as an accurate driver whose approach play was always his strength, it's no surprise to see that he has a good record at Sea Island, often finishing close to the top 10 without yet contending. All told he's shot 64 five times across both courses so we know he can score wherever he is.
At 26th in accuracy this season and with his irons still well above average, Merritt's problems have for a while now been putter-related, but all of his top 10 performances over the last couple of years have been in the south and southeastern states, even if he hails from Idaho. Perhaps then he can build on last week's back-to-form 12th, which saw him enter the final round in fifth place, and somehow salvage his card.
As you'll have seen from the staking plan, Shelton is the one I really like, but I can't leave out players at 300/1 and 400/1 who showed up well for three rounds in Bermuda and have the talent and the golf courses to do something special. Back them down to 200s but no less than that.
- Bets with specified bookmakers will be settled at general prices where different to those quoted
Posted at 1100 GMT on 19/11/24
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