Ben Coley's golf betting tips: RBC Heritage preview and best bets
Masters champion Scottie Scheffler heads a strong field for the RBC Heritage, where we're backing Patrick Cantlay to land the win he deserves.
Golf betting tips: RBC Heritage
3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Tom Kim at 66/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Eric Cole at 100/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The RBC Heritage is the latest Signature Event on the PGA Tour, and without doubt the most incongruous. This is meant to be the post-Masters comedown for those who want it, something easily ignored by those who don't. All but forcing elite golfers to play the game in a way they don't especially enjoy playing it serves very little purpose.
Sure, there are other factors, and no doubt the loyalty of a key sponsor is part of the deal. Nevertheless you don't have to dig around much to get the impression that even RBC aren't totally sold on having a limited field for their event, meaning several brand ambassadors had to rely on invites which couldn't quite cover the whole lot.
Truth be told this should probably be a week off for everybody, but those of us who break out in a cold sweat at the idea of a gap in the calendar and are still dealing with the emotional blow that was the postponement of this week's DP World Tour event would've overwhelmingly preferred a weaker field, a cut, and none of this 'Signature' silliness.
The positive spin is that if we're going to get Scottie Scheffler beaten, there's every chance it's now. Harbour Town is a fiddly, suffocating layout that can catch out anyone who isn't mentally sharp. It denies players like Scheffler the chance to hit as many drivers as they want to and while his pragmatic-fantastic style should in theory work here, there's no way he's going to be fully tuned up.
He may not have to be, but with wife Meredith's due date fast approaching, Scheffler could withdraw at any stage from now through to Sunday. If he does win, well we're used to that by now. He just has to be taken on along with Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg, all of whom help inject value into prices further down.
Can't look past Cantlay
These Signature Events are more often than not being won by players who wanted to be there. Hideki Matsuyama for instance never skips Riviera; Scheffler was playing Bay Hill before the purse increased. More pertinently, the winners of the post-major equivalents last year were Matt Fitzpatrick and Keegan Bradley, who both would've returned to tournaments that mean a lot to them regardless of their status.
It's for that reason I have to consider PATRICK CANTLAY by some distance the best bet.
He's played here every year bar 2020 and has form figures of 3-7-3-MC-2-3, so there is absolutely nothing complicated about this selection. Cantlay loves the course, the tournament, even the timing, and he's done everything bar win at Harbour Town.
Down the years he's done everything to an exceptional standard at some stage and, unsurprisingly, he says he loves being tasked with shaping tee shots and if not hitting fairways necessarily, then missing on the correct side of them.
This is the kind of golf he enjoys playing and while there had to be concerns over his long-game prior to the Masters, he answered them by ranking 10th in strokes-gained approach. That's the department which held him back in both Florida starts and at the beginning of the year, so to see it firing again was important.
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Putting badly at Augusta is simply what he always does so that's not something we should dwell on, and I will take heart from the fact he did at least see them drop on Saturday before reverting to type in a disappointing final round.
He's played a lighter schedule than some have lately so should be plenty fresh enough and, having been clear in the lead at Riviera when illness struck back in February, he can pay us back for that in an event which ought to be a little bit easier to win.
I was really sweet on Tommy Fleetwood but he's the same price as Cantlay and I can't justify putting him up. Fleetwood says he particularly enjoys playing the week after a major and has the results to show for it, but he's still to win on the PGA Tour, will have a different caddie on the bag again, and simply looks too short.
He'll be sharing a house with Shane Lowry, their families very close, and it might help both to build on encouraging Masters performances. Not for the first time, Lowry was left to rue a heap of missed putts having led the field in approach play, and he knows he's playing well enough to challenge for a title he should've won two years ago.
Playing here on a sponsors' invitation along with Justin Thomas, Lowry's first-class iron play over the past six weeks demands enormous respect. So does the fact that he was buoyed by a putting session with his coach on Saturday night, and there's enough wind in the forecast to believe he'll have ideal conditions.
The trouble with Lowry is getting him over the line and at not too much shorter, ready preference is for COLLIN MORIKAWA.
It's of course possible that playing in the final group of the Masters, where he was ultimately well beaten in the end, could leave Morikawa vulnerable but he's the sort of character who will be aggravated by the way Scheffler went on to win that tournament, and I doubt he'll fail for lack of focus.
Rewind two years and he arrived here talking about how Scheffler's first Masters victory had made him all the more determined to get back to winning titles and he finally did that in the autumn, winning a tournament in Japan that meant a lot to him, and doing so on a course not unalike this one.
Morikawa had previously finished second at another old-fashioned layout in Detroit and we know he likes Harbour Town, where his accuracy is a real asset. He contended here in 2021 when many expected him to reel in Stewart Cink, has made the cut in all four visits, and knows full well it's made for his style of play.
Like Cantlay, he managed to dial in his approaches out of nowhere at Augusta, ranking third despite the poor shots which cost him at holes nine and 11 on Sunday. Prior to that, early in the round, he'd set up chance after chance at a time when Scheffler was struggling a little, so who knows what might've happened had the putter stayed hot.
It's that club which has held him back here and we have to accept that he hasn't yet dealt with the switch to these overseeded bermuda greens, but Morikawa has long been unpredictable in that regard and he might not need to be much better than average to have a crack at winning this.
Remember, Jordan Spieth lost strokes on the greens when he won two years ago and the challenge is so much about precise driving and approach play. That's Morikawa's game in a nutshell and if he tees off in the form he showed at Augusta, he seems very likely to create another winning opportunity.
Fitzpatrick should put up a good defence and is respected along with Russell Henley, who is generally looking more assured on the greens now putting with a pencil grip. I also like the way Sahith Theegala is playing but while his driver has become much more dependable, I'm still far from sure this is the sort of test he really wants.
By contrast it's perfect for TOM KIM and I was staggered to see bet365 open up at 90/1 given that we all saw him close out the Masters with one of the best rounds of the week, before a warm embrace with his regular practise partner, Scheffler, by the 18th green.
Kim should arrive at Harbour Town with pep in his step and while he missed the cut here last year, that was solely down to his putter. Typically good on the greens, he just had an off week, perhaps exhausted by his debut Masters which included having Netflix follow him around as part of one of their key (and somewhat disingenuous) Full Swing storylines.
A winner previously over the border in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship, the arrow-straight Kim has a really good game for this type of course and while one swallow doesn't make a summer, the fact that he ranked second to Lowry in strokes-gained approach last week was a major step in the right direction.
Kim's three PGA Tour wins so far all came after some big hints with his irons and while he's not been at his best on the greens lately, Sunday's final round saw him produce his best figures of Masters week and again offers some encouragement.
It was a lights-out putting display which earned him his breakthrough on similar greens to these and there's always scope for something to click in that department. Unlike say Lowry and perhaps to a degree Morikawa, we're talking about a good putter who hasn't been putting as well as he can. Hopefully he's found the solution.
With form by the coast including second in the Open, and most of his best displays coming on shorter golf courses as you would expect, Kim looks a knocking bet down to 40/1. Those opening shows were never going to last but that doesn't mean the juice has been squeezed out of his price – far from it, in fact.
Canadian duo catch the eye
It used to be the case that we'd have to weigh up the pros and cons of having even played in the Masters when trying to solve this puzzle, but it's long odds-on that the champion on Sunday will have done so now that we've similar fields across the two.
The best chance among those arriving fresh is probably with in-form Tom Hoge, who was born in North Carolina and ought to have the game for this. He's playing really well, too, but I can't shake the fact that his course record is pretty terrible. For a short hitter he's not all that accurate, so perhaps that explains his struggles down the years.
My favourite Augusta absentee is therefore ADAM SVENSSON, on offer at a whopping 250/1 in places and a smashing each-way bet.
Svensson has been frustrated with how this season has gone and took action recently, hiring Jace Walker to carry his bag, a fellow Canadian who had previously helped Mackenzie Hughes to capture his second PGA Tour win less than two years ago.
When they began working together at the Valspar, Svensson immediately ended a run of missed cuts and what's noticeable is that while he's been down the leaderboard, his iron play has returned to the sort of top-class levels we know he's capable of.
Tidy up just a little off the tee and he'll be right in business when the putter behaves, and on that score it has improved throughout each of his last four starts, so again there's been more encouragement to his play than at first it might appear.
Tenth in elite company at Riviera, exactly the sort of classical course he so enjoys, is a strong piece of form along with seventh at the Wyndham, while I love the fact that his sole win to date came at Sea Island. Along with Colonial and Copperhead, these are some of the best correlating courses around when it comes to Harbour Town.
Svensson has made the cut on both previous appearances here, sitting third after the opening round on debut. Again though it's closer inspection that offers the most promise: across these two, high-class editions of the tournament, he's ranked ninth and 10th for strokes-gained approach, gaining an average of 1.34 shots per round.
Something about the place seems to fit his eye and with no room for manoeuvre when it comes to making Mike Weir's Presidents Cup team, this looks an ideal opportunity for Svensson to remind the captain why he ought to be on the shortlist to feature alongside the likes of Kim.
His compatriot ADAM HADWIN will be, too, and I've long felt this is a course where he can finally double his PGA Tour tally.
Hadwin's first win came at Copperhead and he boasts an excellent record at Colonial, all of which makes sense given that his strengths are precision from the tee and quality approach play, along with a putter which can run very hot.
His record here suggests otherwise but five cuts made in eight appearances is solid enough and at various stages he's been among the best drivers, iron players and scramblers, with only the greens causing him issues.
Last year though he putted well so if that represents a turning point, he could be a real threat. Hadwin has placed on three of his last nine starts, including at Riviera and back at Copperhead, all at courses which we know he likes.
I'm sure this one fits that description too even if he's yet to fully show it, with last summer's runner-up finish alongside Morikawa in Detroit another reminder of what sort of conditions he needs to be at his best.
Last week's Masters return didn't necessarily go to plan but he was pleased to have driven the ball better on Sunday, his short-game was electric, and I'm very happy taking a chance on his irons stepping up a gear after some recent signs of encouragement.
Hadwin sounded very much at ease with his swing at Augusta, saying: "It's there. I'm able to execute every golf shot that I want. It's just a matter of doing it now."
Hopefully it all comes together at what looks a good price.
Adam Schenk's runner-up finishes at Copperhead and Colonial certainly earned him a second look following an excellent Masters debut and he's respected, but I'm keen to chance ERIC COLE at a bigger price.
Cole reminds me a little of Luke Donald, a habitual Harbour Town contender, in that he can be somewhat iffy off the tee at times but excels in all other departments, something that was true throughout his rookie year and remains so now.
This less-than-driver course should help rein in his bigger misses, just as bermuda greens and a spot of breeze might also bring out his best, and third place at Sea Island is one small source of encouragement ahead of what's his first try at the course.
Cole is another of mine who was close to hitting the frame at Riviera, he was also second to Morikawa on a tree-lined course in Japan and fourth at another in California, while sixth place in last summer's Canadian Open also came when players had options off the tee and couldn't rely on brute force.
His blend of quality approach play and a sharp short-game is one I really like and it's only the third round at Augusta which would have to concern backers. It was therefore good to see him respond on Sunday, when he ranked 13th in strokes-gained ball-striking, more of which could make him a contender here.
Sepp Straka and Cam Davis are others sure to be popular while Lucas Glover would dearly love to win this and could do so if putting as well as he did last week. At 100/1, he'd have been the pick of the trio ahead of Straka, who looks about the right sort of price to me.
One way or another, this is a Signature Event where at least a few of the biggest names will wind up wishing they were where they should be: at home, taking a break, before the build-up to the PGA Championship begins.
Posted at 1600 BST on 15/04/24
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