Ben Coley's golf betting tips: RBC Canadian Open preview and best bets
Tyrrell Hatton can get himself in the mix for another big title as the RBC Canadian Open returns to the PGA Tour schedule after a three-year wait.
Golf betting tips: RBC Canadian Open
2pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Adam Hadwin at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. CT Pan at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nick Taylor at 125/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. John Huh at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The RBC Canadian Open is the final piece of the jigsaw put back together by the PGA Tour following its suspension in the spring of 2020, as at last Rory McIlroy gets the chance to defend his title. McIlroy stormed to a seven-shot victory at Hamilton three years ago in one of those performances that has everyone purring, and rightly so. He might be the game's most frustrating player, but he does win big like nobody else: that was his fourth victory by seven or more strokes, a tally none of his peers will match.
For a time last week, something similar looked on the cards at the Memorial Tournament. After a slowish start, McIlroy sprang to life midway through his second round thanks to a trademark eagle, but thereafter was decidedly poor and now has to recover at a new course, St George's Golf and Country Club, which last hosted this championship in 2010. On the face of it, a 7,014-yard par 70 wouldn't necessarily be McIlroy's bag, but there are three par-fives here, there's been rain to soften things up, and there's some talk that there will be more mid-irons and fewer wedges than the scorecard may suggest.
That would be ideal for McIlroy and he's one of a handful of world-class players in what's among the most lopsided fields you're likely to see. All told, five of the world's top 10 are in attendance and they're the top five in the betting, too, but it doesn't take long to get to players who are outside the top 50. That combined with a course few have played, and the fact the US Open is next week, suggests the prospect of another pre-major skinner to follow those we've seen from San Antonio to Scotland over the years is very much a real one.
But while none of the trio vying for favouritism makes serious appeal, plenty of the next wave do and having come to the conclusion that Tony Finau might not enjoy this test quite as much as TYRRELL HATTON, it's the latter who earns the headline vote.
Finau is back in excellent form, his approach play from mid-to-long range is exceptional and like McIlroy he'll relish any softening of conditions, but I'm still not sure either will be able to put their driving to use in the way that so advantages them.
It certainly seems likely there will be plenty of clubbing down from the tee and if the playing field is levelled, then Hatton looks to have an outstanding chance having been ticking over nicely all year, making each and every cut and always with plenty to spare.
He's not contended properly since March, but we know by now that Augusta isn't his course and he wasn't overly enamoured with Southern Hills, where nevertheless he was 10th at halfway and rallied to finish 13th having stuttered on Saturday.
As you'd expect, he did his damage there with his approach play and putting and that ties in nicely with what happened here in 2010, when there had also been plenty of rain around. Various players defied short or poor driving to contend, with the first three home all relying more on quality approach play and good putting.
Carl Pettersson went from thinking he'd missed the cut to shooting a third-round 60 and going on to win, and his oeuvre might be our biggest clue: the Swede was always at his best on shorter, more technical courses, winning at Harbour Town, Sedgefield and Copperhead as well as here. Luke Donald has been first or second at all of those courses and you'll see them pop up in the form of those who finished just behind these two big names, too.
Hatton hasn't played Sedgefield in six years but was 21st on his second try at Copperhead and has been third at Harbour Town, where he's shot rounds of 63 and 64. He's also won at Bay Hill, which demands more mid-to-long irons, at the tree-lined Wentworth which shares some visual similarities with St George's, and ought to find this course far more to his liking than Southern Hills.
There's a small concern he's been away since but it's only three weeks and he has won the season-opening Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship after a month and a half off, so as the best putter in this field on 2022 form and with scope for those irons to come to the boil, he's considered the best bet at around 28/1.
Matt Fitzpatrick has similar claims and he's likely to bounce back from last week's odd missed cut, as he has twice already this year. Fitzpatrick putted abysmally at the Memorial but will brush it off and see this as a fine chance to get off the mark, just in time for a return to the scene of his US Amateur win at Brookline next week.
But as with Shane Lowry, odds short of 20/1 when we've five of the best players in the sport in opposition make limited appeal for all the positives, and I'd rather make JUSTIN ROSE my second English selection.
Rose's form remains patchy and he missed the cut at a course he likes last time, but prior to that he'd finished a rock-solid 13th in the PGA Championship alongside Hatton, ranking 10th in strokes-gained approach and 13th in putting and showing the skills which ought to be paramount here.
He also comes up everywhere you look when it comes to potentially correlating courses, having been seventh and 14th from just five visits to Harbour Town, fifth and 10th in three tries at Sedgefield, runner-up at Waialae, a regular top-five finisher in Boston, and equally effective at TPC River Highlands, another short course with plenty of variety off the tee. He's even got a runner-up finish to his name at LaCantera, which is where 2010 runner-up Dean Wilson was at his most effective.
Being able to use driver only when he's comfortable is a positive as that club has been less reliable than it once was and although it's both dated and from different courses, his Canadian Open record is also encouraging. Rose has finished fourth, 48th and 14th in three previous tries, leading after 54 holes on the latter occasion, and it's worth noting he ranked 69th, 93rd and 127th in the world at the time so it's not like we're judging him at his world number one best.
Now just outside the top 50 and still needing a couple more good performances to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs, he has every reason to be focused on the here and now – especially as only last season he three-putted the final hole of the final event of the regular season to miss out on those Playoffs, and probably a Ryder Cup spot too.
His closest friend on the circuit has just been named European Ryder Cup captain for 2023 and Rose will be desperate to get back into the form required to make that team, just as Lowry was focused on earning his place rather than having to rely on the generosity of his friend, Padraig Harrington.
Perhaps then we'll see Rose have one more good stab at getting himself back into the sport's elite, and a prestigious event like this one, played on the sort of course he's always enjoyed, gives him the platform to begin that process in earnest.
Hadwin to lead home challenge
It goes without saying that this is a huge event for Canadian players and more so after a three-year wait. That brings expectation and pressure, and there's been no Canadian winner since 1954, but this year's squad looks strong and I suspect we'll see several of them flirt with the top of the leaderboard.
At the time of writing, Adam Svensson is preparing for a US Open qualifying play-off so his preparation probably isn't ideal, though he'd be of interest in the first-round leader market, while Mackenzie Hughes has stacks of form under tough conditions and the right mindset, the fact he won't need to hit too many drivers is a clear positive, and his caddie has heaps of local knowledge.
But the market has the hierarchy correct and while Corey Conners is more solid, it's next-in-line ADAM HADWIN who looks the better bet at the odds.
Whereas Conners has so far struggled to make any kind of impact in this tournament, Hadwin has shown that he can rise to the challenge, with three top-10 finishes including when an excellent fourth before he held PGA Tour status, playing in the final group on Sunday.
It was in fact at St George's in the 2010 renewal that he made both his debut in the event and on the PGA Tour, finishing 37th having been up there early on and followed around by huge galleries as he led the Canadian challenge before understandably stalling at the weekend.
Inside the top 10 all week when sixth behind McIlroy and climbing from 123rd to seventh over the final three rounds in 2015, he's done everything but win this tournament and there's been enough in his eight top-30 finishes since the start of the year to suggest his game is in the right place to see things through this time.
Hadwin is a shorter hitter whose approach play needs to figure if he's to contend, which it has lately as he's among the pick of this field at 30th for the season. He's also 18th around the green, 35th in scrambling and rock-solid with putter in hand, so again he's one of those who is going to be dangerous if there's no big advantage to be gained by long driving.
The fact he's won at Copperhead ties him in nicely with those who contended for this title 12 years ago and so does much of his best form elsewhere, with top-10 finishes at Sawgrass, Colonial, Sedgefield, El Camaleon and Deere Run, and after defying a slow start to finish 18th last week he looks primed to go well.
The most decorated Canadian on the circuit right now is arguably NICK TAYLOR with two wins to his name, and he looks to have found form in time to challenge, too.
Taylor's record in this is pretty poor but he's been 10th and third at halfway in the last two renewals, and having beaten Phil Mickelson when winning at Pebble Beach in 2020, he's since shown he can stand tall when it matters. That will stand him in good stead if he contends again here.
Like all of my selections, he has form at potentially correlating courses with two top-10 finishes at Sedgefield and a host of sneaky efforts across Deere Run, Copperhead, Harbour Town and Waialae, and his form recently is solid having been 15th in the Wells Fargo, qualified for the US Open, and made a good start at Colonial.
Taylor's approach play has been solid all year (70th) but two of his best three efforts over the last 12 months came in May so things are seemingly starting to come together, and I like his chances of recording an overdue top-10 finish, his first since that win in California.
Which outsiders are worth backing?
Monday's US Open qualifiers threw up some interesting names like Adam Schenk, Chase Seiffert and Danny Lee, all of whom have something to recommend them at big odds. It's possible we see further withdrawals of course and Lee doesn't necessarily need the FedEx Cup points, but this is a national open and you'd hope most recognise its value.
Emiliano Grillo is another who has shown subtle hints of form lately and could go well, but I'll sign off with the arrow-straight pair CT PAN and JOHN HUH.
Pan will be relishing a return to this part of the world as he was a two-time winner on the Canadian Tour in 2015, and in his sole start in this event climbed from 107th after round one to finish an excellent 14th.
His approach play has been excellent lately, gaining strokes in nine starts running and ranking 41st for the season despite a shocking effort at Torrey Pines, and his only missed cut in 10 starts came when on the wrong side of a big draw bias at Sawgrass, where he still played well and was close to a Saturday tee-time.
Crucially, all of his best form has come at courses which appear to be similar in some way, including his win at Harbour Town, excellent performance at last year's Olympics, second at Sedgefield, third at Colonial, fourth at Boston and eighth at River Highlands. If he's as comfortable here as he is at those courses, there's every chance he turns consistent golf into contending golf.
Huh's sole PGA Tour win came at the short par 70 in Mexico, El Camaleon, and he's gone close at Sedgefield and Harbour Town in the distant past. All four of his top-15 finishes this season, including last time at Colonial, have come on shorter par 70 layouts and two of them despite putting poorly, which suggests to me he's got a big week in him under the right circumstances.
At 128th in the FedEx Cup standings he needs one soon enough and after his best tee-to-green display of the season last time, the timing of this return to a classical, tree-lined course, the like of which he plainly prefers, is perfect. Huh is about average in all departments right now, but he has scope to step up considerably on the back of a strong week in Texas, where he was fifth with a round to go.
Posted at 1310 BST on 07/06/22
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