Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Classic preview and best bets
Ben Coley tipped the runner-up in last week's tournament at Al Hamra, where the DP World Tour remains for another week. Get his selections and analysis.
Golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Classic
2pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 35/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. George Coetzee at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Francesco Laporta at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jacques Kruyswijk at 150/1 (Unibet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Marc Warren at 500/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Confirmation bias is widespread in golf as in life, and there are few who are immune to it. Spaniards all have good hands, so the commentator will say as Sergio Garcia zips a wedge close to the hole, forgetting the skulled bunker shot by Rafa Cabrera Bello moments earlier. Left-handers all putt well is a particular favourite of mine, because it is even more bonkers, and overlooks one of the most successful left-handers of the last 15 years in Bubba Watson.
But sometimes, sometimes, having a point of view confirmed by subsequent events is less confirmation bias, more having been right the first time, and that's how I saw things in the Ras al Khaimah Championship last week. Missing Nicolai Hojgaard at 33/1 was beyond frustrating and, to be frank, bloody stupid, but the conjecture of the preview proved correct, and the reasons for that appear sound.
My view was that Al Hamra is a course where the best drivers should dominate. That was supported by three events on the Challenge Tour, bossed by the best at the time on that circuit, and it shaped my staking plan. Come Sunday, the best driver in the field finished first, and the second best finished second. Driving is one of golf's more predictable elements, and in separating themselves both Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith were simply doing what they do best.
As we got our first televised look at the course, it became immediately clear why those like the above duo are at such an advantage. Hojgaard drove the first green in round three, something beyond comprehension for a good chunk of the field. In round four, he got back on track with a towering drive to the back of another par-four green, and though that club had almost cost him earlier in the day, in the end it is where he won the tournament.
Hojgaard was the longest and best driver in the field, and he outscored everybody on the par-fives. The highlight-reel moments of the final round were two long-irons from the waste area that few would've dared hit, again because they lack his power, and perhaps his genius. It is often said that low-scoring events are putting contests, but so often that is utter nonsense, and in ranking 43rd, Hojgaard underlines that point. He was the worst putter among the contenders, but comfortably the best ball-striker.
Driver key to unlocking Al Hamra
So, what's to stop him winning again as the DP World Tour stays at Al Hamra for the Ras al Khaimah Classic? Very little is the answer. Hojgaard is less than half the price but who can argue with that, and with calm conditions forecast until Sunday afternoon, it could well be that he goes and repeats the trick. That's something yet to happen in the handful of tournaments played at the same course as the week prior, but this is the first time the person chasing a quick double has been Nicolai Hojgaard, and he's the man to beat.
Stubbornly, however, I can't bring myself to back a 14/1 shot who won here at 33/1 (40-plus on Betfair Exchange) and partly that's because consistency is the one thing this 20-year-old lacks. He held form after winning in Italy last year but has missed four cuts in nine subsequent starts along with five top-20s, and for now this boom-or-bust profile may remain. It's just about enough to accept defeat and cast the net wider.
Smith is no certainty to make as many as he did so I've settled on ADRIAN MERONK and ROMAIN LANGASQUE, both perfectly capable of emulating the aforementioned duo at a course where they've hit the crossbar at a lower level.
Meronk was 22/1 generally at the time of publication last week, and this time there's plenty of 28, 30 and even 33/1 available, despite the absence now of Bernd Wiesberger. That looks a generous reaction given that his mid-table finish can largely be put down to a couple of shockers around the green, which in contrast to driving is hard to predict and rarely worth dwelling on.
The Pole still drove the ball nicely, as you'd expect, and seems to have really found his putting mojo over the last six months, so the fundamental strengths of his game remain. Perhaps as well we can put his sluggish start down to the events of a week earlier, when he was bang in the mix throughout the Dubai Desert Classic and played with Rory McIlroy for the first time in his burgeoning career.
Any mental letdown would've been understandable, but with the tour staying put he should be able to freshen up and build on a final-round 69 which saw him cruise his way round Al Hamra, his sole bogey coming via a close-range miss and with no stress elsewhere. Meronk had nothing much to play for come Sunday but demonstrated that fondness for the test which we'd seen when he lost a play-off here on the Challenge Tour five years ago.
Positive Challenge Tour experiences served Smith well and so they should for Meronk now he gets a second bite of the cherry. The last of the market principals off my list a week ago, I'm happy to include him now we get a few more points on the price and in this field, anything 25/1 and upwards rates a bet.
Frenchman worth forgiving
Some will have lost patience with Langasque meanwhile but I'm in it for the long haul and his one-shot missed cut came with all the positives I tend to look for.
At the time of departure, Langasque was the third-ranked driver in the field, behind Hojgaard and Smith. He was also a solid 30th in strokes-gained approach, but ranked 132nd (of 132 players) around the greens, and was unable to save himself with the putter (110th).
Again, around-the-green stats are volatile, and in Langasque's case he simply hit a couple of particularly costly shots. The first came in round one, when he took four to get down having been in a greenside bunker at the par-three fourth hole. Then, in round two, he was greenside at a par-five but pitched across the green into water, running up an eight which undermined his progress. The Frenchman shot a seven-birdie 69 that day and it was a shot too many. Across these two holes he took 13 shots when on another day he would've needed only seven.
Having also made six at the par-five eighth from the middle of the fairway, it was an extreme example of making the worst score possible and means we ought to give him another chance. Had Langasque been poor off the tee then it would've been easy to move on, but he did all the things necessary to build a platform for a successful week, and may well have climbed the leaderboard had he advanced to round three.
In a nutshell the case for him then was that he'd placed on both previous starts here, is a brilliant driver of the ball, had started the season very well, and should go on to establish himself as one of the best players on the circuit this year. All of this remains true, and the fact he won the second event in Wales back in 2020 might be something to help get him over last week and focused on this one.
Personally, I take encouragement from the second event in Kenya last year. Back then, Daniel van Tonder missed the cut narrowly but had still driven the ball to a very high standard, and went on to make amends in style. Langasque is in precisely the same boat and while he was disappointing, the case for him being particularly well suited to this challenge was strengthened by others over the weekend.
Ryan Fox also missed the cut but hasn't drifted, didn't drive the ball especially well, and missed so many short putts that I can't bring myself to repeat the case for him. Perhaps had the forecast called for more in the way of wind but if 20-under is the target, Fox cannot afford to keep missing his from close range.
Of my other selections, Johannes Veerman gets back to the day job of parenting and isn't in the field, Brandon Stone is shorter in the betting for finishing a promising but unspectacular 35th, and it's Kristoffer Broberg who therefore made most appeal at 100/1.
Broberg made a double and a triple during his first nine holes last Thursday so did very well to make the cut with a Friday 68, before adding another on Saturday. There was a lot to like in his approach play (fourth), which remains red-hot, but he did take a step backwards with the driver and his tendency to spray one on occasion made Al Hamra look a little less suitable than I'd hoped it might be.
Gorgeous George overpriced at 80s
GEORGE COETZEE is prone to the odd wild one himself but for the third time in as many starts in 2022, he drove the ball really nicely and caught the eye in finishing 27th last week.
Coetzee is capable with mixing it with the best of these and though he's been pretty quiet since winning the Portugal Masters as a 14/1 shot in 2020 (Tommy Fleetwood the only player ahead of him in the betting), I'm hopeful that he dropped a big hint in what was his first look at this course.
The South African produced his second best tee-to-green display since that victory in Portugal, the other coming when 10th in Saudi Arabia last year, only to suffer his worst putting week since last August. Typically one of the best on the circuit in that department, such blips are rare, and there's no reason to believe these greens foxed him. He just had an off week which will likely be left behind.
If Coetzee can maintain the ball-striking he displayed, which saw him rank inside the top 25 both off the tee and with his approaches, as well as around the greens, then he is going to be dangerous with something like a normal putting week. The fact that this course shares plenty in common with Portugal is encouraging, and Coetzee's record in the Middle East includes top-10 finishes in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Oman.
Best under low-scoring conditions, the forecast looks ideal and having been on the fringes through 54 holes both last week and at the Dubai Desert Classic, Coetzee may be ready to strike at a nice price. I would in fact be very confident of him contending if he hits the ball as well as he did and while that's no given, it's more than enough to justify supporting him at 50/1 and upwards.
Is Laporta poised for breakthrough?
Generally though I do want to stick to players who are reliable off the tee, and Laurie Canter has been at the top of that list for the best part of two years. Runner-up to Coetzee in Portugal and a contender in Dubai more than once, he's drifted to a nice enough price but the rest of his game might not be where he needs it.
Instead, my eye is drawn to FRANCESCO LAPORTA, less consistent with driver in hand but very dangerous when it does click.
Laporta was second in strokes gained off-the-tee at the Dubai Championship last year and finished second to JB Hansen, while a year earlier he ranked fourth in the same category when also finishing runner-up.
In Portugal last year a combination of quality driving and putting saw him take seventh, and he was sixth in the high-class BMW PGA Championship thanks to quality driving and approach play.
Last week saw him rank eighth off the tee only to finish 21st, the product of a quiet putting week and one or two poor approach shots. I'd be far more worried about the latter because his putter is even more volatile than most, and having been good in Abu Dhabi three weeks ago, it wouldn't surprise me if it turned again here.
Laporta has certainly putted well enough on similar greens down the road in the Abu Dhabi Championship as well as twice in Dubai and given that his only bogeys over the first 36 holes last week were three-putts, it's clear there's potential to improve plenty on a decent share of 21st.
Laporta was T3 in par-five scoring for the week and if he can cut out some clumsy short-game mistakes, it's easy to envisage him bagging what would be his sixth top-10 finish in 16 starts dating back to last July.
Which outsiders make most appeal?
Ross Fisher's form in Dubai ties in with some of those mentioned and he has his long-game dialled in, as does Oliver Bekker based on last week's effort. The latter is respected, with Fisher perhaps unlikely to keep piling up the birdies and eagles that will be necessary at a course where aggressive youngsters dominated a week ago.
My eye though is drawn to others who narrowly missed the cut, with Marcus Helligkilde overlooked in favour of JACQUES KRUYSWIJK, and a very speculative and small-stakes play on MARC WARREN.
Kruyswijk is exactly the type of golfer who can bag the odd par-four eagle and generally tear apart the scoring holes. The 29-year-old, who is still improving, is a massive hitter and ranked 23rd in strokes-gained off-the-tee last season, three places ahead of Nicolai and just behind Smith.
Unlike those two he failed to shine last week and wasn't ever close to making the cut after an opening 77, but Friday saw him card a four-under 68 where his sole dropped shot came when attempting to drive the green at the short fifth hole.
Given that Kruyswijk was playing his first event in two months that opening round doesn't trouble me, and as is common among my selections, all his problems were on and around the greens. He gained 1.33 strokes off-the-tee which goes down as perfectly solid and the same can be said of his approach play.
It was Kruyswijk's long-game which carried him to a string of high finishes last summer and the pick of them came in Prague, when he was seventh in the Czech Masters. Tapio Pulkkanen and Johannes Veerman battled for that title and both played well here last week; former Al Hamra winner Adri Arnaus was runner-up there to Thomas Pieters, and it's a big-hitters' paradise which should continue to be a good guide to this.
Kruyswijk went on to finish 16th in Mallorca in what was his final outside-of-Africa start of 2021 and is a player who has the talent to follow the lead of Dean Burmester and van Tonder and smash his way to a victory at this kind of level. It could well be here if he can build on Friday's recovery mission.
Finally then, I'll chance Warren, who appears hopelessly out of form having missed 12 cuts in his last 14 starts, and is priced accordingly.
However, a second-round 68 last week saw him drive the ball really well and play his final seven holes in five-under, perhaps building some confidence which he can bring with him to this repeat tournament.
Still retaining enough power to attack Al Hamra, Warren showed with an out-of-the-blue ninth place in Spain a few months ago that he only needs to avoid the big miss off the tee to be competitive in a good field, and I like his correlating form in Portugal where he led at halfway in 2016 and was second a year later.
Warren won in Austria for us at a massive price in 2020 and is the sort of erratic, enigmatic player who could take the final nine holes of the Ras al Khaimah Championship and turn them into something more substantial here. A missed cut remains the likely outcome, but at 250/1 and bigger he looks worth chancing at a course which would play to his strengths were they to fire.
Posted at 1640 GMT on 07/02/22
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