Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley has tipped the runner-up in the first two DP World Tour events of the year. He has six selections for the third in a bid to go one better.
Golf betting tips: Ras Al Khaimah Championship
2pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Alejandro del Rey at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Marco Penge at 125/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Hurly Long at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
If you were to ask some AI thingy to do a golf tournament, a good one might have come up with the 1-2-3 in the Dubai Desert Classic, where Rory McIlroy won for a fourth time – and in doing so capped a frustrating fortnight for this column.
Emirates Golf Club is, among other less important things, about long, excellent driving, and three of the longest and most excellent drivers had the tournament between them from midway through the third round. McIlroy ended the week as the number one driver, and runner-up Adrian Meronk was next best.
When the working out is good (even if, in this case, it wasn't exactly complicated), it's a bit easier to try again a day later and where the Ras Al Khaimah Championship is concerned, we even get to reuse a lot of those ideas. Because if there's one course that might be even more about driving than Emirates is, it might just be Al Hamra.
Until recently, we'd have had another handful to put into the same pot but, in what can only be described as a targeted attack on tipsters, they're gone from the schedule. Out goes Steyn City, where Nick Bachem won for us at 100/1. Out goes Marco Simone, where Meronk did at 22/1. Albatross, where Gavin Green should have at 66s the previous autumn, is also gone, and for now there's no Dom Pedro, either.
That leaves Al Hamra, and the reason why big drivers are so advantaged by this par 72 is what ties it to last week – the need to make the most of the scoring holes. Four par-fives feature one that only the longest can reach in two, but as we've seen since it came to the DP World Tour schedule in 2022, it's those par-fours that they can cut down to size which really set it apart.
First, Nicolai Hojgaard beat Jordan Smith, the pair gaining a combined 15.5 strokes off the tee, a shot or two more than McIlroy and Meronk in Dubai. Then fellow big-hitter Ryan Fox powered to victory at the chief expense of Ross Fisher, with Zander Lombard, Hurly Long and Meronk close behind, and this by the way at the venue where Adri Arnaus won his Challenge Tour Grand Final.
Most of what we can measure and all of what we can see tells us the formula, which is why it's important not to be led astray by what happened last year, when Daniel Gavins held on by the skin of his teeth to beat Alex Bjork. These two drove it poorly and Gavins won by gaining 14 strokes on and around the greens. It would be unwise to go hunting around for a repeat, because it's highly unlikely to happen.
Rasmus Hojgaard heads the betting and deservedly so after finishing 11th in Dubai, his run of strong performances now extending to eight starts. He's definitely added a yard or two off the tee and while it's right to be concerned by his waywardness, note that he hit barely one fairway in four here last year and still finished sixth, ranking fifth off the tee.
That's the other thing about Al Hamra and its tendency to favour the powerhouses: the fact you can get away with not hitting fairways. And it means that Hojgaard, a four-time winner whose putter is red-hot right now, deserves to be considered a more likely champion than the more accurate and reliable course specialist, Smith, whose putting remains a concern.
Del Rey: Born to drive
I can't quite bring myself to back a player who said his swing felt bad at 12 or 14/1, however, and am going to stick to the plan and make ALEJANDRO DEL REY the headline selection.
I expect Del Rey to achieve plenty during this, his second full season on the DP World Tour, and he may not find a course more suited to his pocket-powerhouse game than this one.
One of the very longest drivers on the circuit, I'm not at all surprised he enjoyed a decent first look around Al Hamra, finishing 28th, and it should be noted that this came on the back of six weeks off – not to mention the fact we'd last seen him shooting 81 in Mauritius.
Not only does he return with that experience of the course behind him, but this time del Rey got to prepare in the Dubai Desert Classic, where to be honest I was concerned he was rather letting the cat out of the bag by appearing inside the top 10 at the end of round three.
Following on from finishes of fifth and seventh to end 2023, this was a mere continuation of some excellent golf, and while it came shuddering to a halt with a Sunday 77, that's probably the difference between being 50/1 and something closer to 33s.
Providing he can bounce back – and a birdie-birdie finish to the event may help – del Rey should be able to kick on in this less competitive event, at a more suitable course, and one he has experience of, which wasn't the case over in Dubai.
A one-time star amateur who gained plenty of desert experience at Arizona State, hopefully del Rey can do precisely what he did last year and contend in his second start of the campaign, perhaps this time bettering that third place in Singapore.
He's a player of significant potential and while Sunday's front-nine was a bit of a mess, the fact he was 10th heading into the final round having been three-over through five on Thursday marks it down as an overall positive return to action.
The case for TOM MCKIBBIN is pretty similar as he's another superb driver of the ball who has caught the eye already this year.
McKibbin got to begin in the Dubai Invitational, where he finished 25th, before 14th place represented a marked step up on last year's Dubai Desert Classic performance.
Ranking third off the tee there, behind only McIlroy and Meronk, McKibbin continued to impress with driver, but it's the step forward in his approach work which might prove the key clue. It was a similar albeit more pronounced leap which immediately preceded his European Open breakthrough last summer.
Green Eagle is a long course where you hit a lot of drivers and Al Hamra ought to be no less suitable for McKibbin, who was the best driver in the field on his way to 36th place here in his rookie season. That came after a pair of missed cuts in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, so he's in much better form this time.
I could see this star in the making being the best driver here for the second year running and if that's the case, another solid week with his irons and one or two more putts dropping might be all it takes.
Wiesberger well worth another go
Given the formula I've established, it stands to reason that last week's selections appealed once more. Hojgaard would have made the staking plan at upwards of 16/1, but there are two others I'm keen to stick with.
First is BERND WIESBERGER, one of the most talented players in this field and well capable of returning to the top end of the DP World Tour this year.
Wiesberger has won eight times at this level, he's contended for a major championship and played in a Ryder Cup, and I for one am not at all convinced that his time on the LIV Golf circuit is evidence of a dramatic decline.
Just as likely is that he never quite found a level of comfort which he certainly has on the DP World Tour and, after being four-over through nine holes on his return to it in Dubai, finishing alongside Thorbjorn Olesen in 21st goes down as an excellent effort.
Wiesberger can take inspiration from the way Olesen has re-established himself since returning from his suspension and while it could take time, there was more than enough in last week's performance to merit taking another chance in this much weaker field.
To underline his credentials, Wiesberger teed off here as the 11/1 favourite in 2022 and although he missed the cut, he's worth a chance at 50/1 and bigger following that encouraging return to action. Don't forget, he'd been off for much longer than most having last played an individual event in October, so there could be lots more to come.
"Definitely disappointed with the par-fives this week but a lot of good stuff and ready to kick on next week," was his verdict and he'll have been encouraged at a better putting display than we'd grown accustomed to before he departed for LIV.
More of the same and he's a player in a field where eight of the top dozen in the betting haven't yet won at this level.
There's no doubt that Haotong Li is extremely volatile and therefore hard to price, and after much deliberation I've come to the view that the ship has probably sailed. No doubt one of the classiest players in the field and back to form with a bang so far this month, the case writes itself, but those loose drives did creep back in in Dubai.
It took a field-leading putting display to grab a share of the place money there so while he'd be the one golfer who would particularly frustrate me by winning, which is what happened both in the Dubai Desert Classic and in the BMW International Open having been on him a week earlier in both cases, I'll let him go unbacked at 50/1.
Preference is for LAURIE CANTER, the second of last week's picks to retain his place in the line-up.
Placed in Portugal and then almost winning the Italian Open back in 2020, not at Marco Simone but nevertheless at a course where his driving prowess counted for plenty, Canter is a really good fit for Al Hamra.
He's contended for the Dubai Desert Classic and the DP World Tour Championship, two driver-heavy Middle East courses, and I can just about forgive a missed cut last week given that it was his return to action after a month off.
Prior to Christmas he bagged successive top-five finishes, putting better than he has at times in the past, and while he'll need to rediscover that there was absolutely nothing wrong with his driving at the Emirates. In fact it was on track to be the best in the field had he been able to return for the weekend and maintained that level.
Canter was 25th here in 2022, after a slow start to the year, and he's definitely been eased in the order because of a narrow missed cut. As such, he's preferred to the similar Richard Mansell, who is around the same price now having been much bigger in Dubai.
Golfers are generally pretty good at shaking off a frustrating week and I'm certainly of the view they're not to be dwelt upon. With Canter doing his best work off the tee, let's hope he can sharpen up the rest and get back in the mix.
Powerful Penge a fascinating outsider
Tom Lewis had been on the radar for this but it's his seasonal reappearance and he didn't end 2023 in the best of form, so he's passed over in favour of MARCO PENGE.
Winner of the Challenge Tour Grand Final to snatch the season-long Road to Mallorca, Penge came of age during the final six months of last year and carried that with him up to this level, contending at Leopard Creek after a staying-on 12th in the SA Open.
Last week's return could hardly have started worse but it was his Rolex Series debut and a big deal no doubt. To recover from an opening 77 with a Friday 68 was an excellent effort and sets him up nicely for this much easier challenge on a course he should love.
A huge hitter who led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee in a DP World Tour event last summer, soon after two high-class driving rounds in the Open, Penge is made for this type of test and three-figure prices made plenty of appeal.
Long shot
Andrea Pavan is another to consider as while he's not long, he should benefit from the fact you can get away with the occasional big miss here. That's his weakness but his iron play is among the best around and he played OK here when at the beginning of his decline a couple of years ago.
If you land on a putting week for Dan Bradbury, Callum Shinkwin or Sean Crocker you'll be in business and Sebastian Soderberg ought to go very close to winning again soon, but my final selection is a speculative play on HURLY LONG.
This capable young German has been largely out of sorts since missing the cut by a long way here last year, but did pop up out of nowhere to almost win the Irish Open in September, when Vincent Norrman stole it from under his nose.
Long is a volatile player but he's highly capable and he does have some excellent course form, having been 18th and third over the fortnight they spent here in 2022. Those were his first two appearances of the season and he'd played poorly towards the end of the previous year, so it wasn't as if he arrived as a likely contender.
I reckon there's a small chance he again sparks into life at Al Hamra as while form figures of 48-MC to begin the year don't look encouraging on the surface, he did drive it well in week one, before producing some much-improved approach play numbers in the Dubai Desert Classic, where his putter let him down.
Putting everything together has been a challenge and this is a minimum-stakes bet at 150/1 and bigger, but I was seriously impressed with Long when he did find his way into contention at the K Club, and in this weaker field can't resist speculating given that course form he has.
He's preferred to Freddy Schott and Jeong Weon Ko in a week where, for better or worse, it's drivers all the way.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 22/01/24
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