Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Championship preview and best bets
Nicolai Hojgaard heads Ben Coley's staking plan for the Ras al Khaimah Championship, where big-hitting is likely to prove decisive once more.
Golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Championship
3pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 20/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 60/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Niklas Norgaard at 60/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Tapio Pulkkanen at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
A big year on the DP World Tour has started with something for everyone. We've had firm fairways and breeze in Abu Dhabi, soft greens and rain in Dubai, and two level playing fields upon which all kinds of golf can pay. Now, with a clear forecast for the days ahead, that all changes in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.
Simply put, host course Al Hamra favours long driving more so than any other on the 2023 schedule. That much appeared likely before a two-week stay last year, when we had only some dated Challenge Tour form to go on. Victories for Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox, both of them dominant, served as absolute confirmation.
At 7,400 yards, the course isn't a monster, but so often it's in this kind of range that the more powerful players really benefit. Much shorter and there won't be any problems for the fairway-finders; much longer, and suddenly everyone is laying up, again tipping things back towards those who don't often putt for eagle. This course is right in the sweet spot and for good measure, there's one driveable par-four for everyone, but three of them for a very select group of players.
No wonder Hojgaard loved it, gaining more than two strokes per round off the tee, double the number a world-class driver would average over the course of a very good season. The only person to give him any kind of scare, Jordan Smith, produced similar statistics – and he's a former winner at the course to add substance. Fox wasn't quite as effective, but runner-up Ross Fisher was. Both of them hit the ball miles and miles, as does contender Adrian Meronk and another former winner here, Adri Arnaus.
None of this guarantees another huge-hitting champion, but it certainly increases that prospect. With tees pushed up in Dubai last week, everyone could reach at least three of the par-fives and get close to the two short par-fours. Back under more typically Middle East conditions, there will be those who can and those who simply cannot attack this course in the way Hojgaard and Fox did. The way which saw the former win by four and the latter win by five.
Danish duo can overpower Al Hamra
The best person to do that is of course NICOLAI HOJGAARD himself, and I see no reason why he can't double up.
Hojgaard was favourite to do so in the Ras al Khaimah Classic but that was always going to be a tough task mentally, to go again at the same course just days later. Despite that, he actually drove the ball to a very similar standard, only for the magic dust that had covered his putter to disappear as quickly as it had arrived.
In other words, in missing the cut days after his second DP World Tour win, Hojgaard actually underlined exactly how and why he's so well suited to Al Hamra. It's something he'd demonstrated in that runaway win, and something he discussed, too.
“My length was definitely a big advantage off the tee," he said. "Today I hit some key drives, on 13 and 14 and there are a few bunkers I can carry, so if I can hit it straight the length is definitely an advantage."
As Hojgaard continues to progress, his raw talent making him actually quite different to his identical twin brother, Rasmus, the next challenge was always going to be to show he can do it at different courses. Gradually we're seeing that, his efforts in Australia (10th) and in Abu Dhabi (10th) both showcasing his skills in the wind and some evidence of an improved wedge game, particularly at the latter.
Short putts remain a worry but he was good on that front in Dubai, where last year he missed the cut, so he looks in a fantastic place for his third start at the course. He's match sharp having also played the Hero Cup, he knows that event gave him a platform, and he'll know how big an opportunity this is to kickstart his Ryder Cup bid.
Hojgaard is in some ways unfortunate that his good putting weeks, which are admittedly rare, have arrived at the wrong courses of late. If he lands on another one here, he will take a heck of a lot of beating and he's narrowly preferred to Adrian Meronk at the head of the betting.
NIKLAS NORGAARD, formerly known as Niklas Norgaard Moller, is another Dane with the right game and has to be worth chancing.
Norgaard is just about the longest-driving DP World Tour member and while rough around the edges during his rookie season, towards the end of it he started to harness that power and put together a strong run of results.
Seventh in the valuable Dunhill Links saw him rank eighth in strokes-gained off-the-tee in an event where driver is used a lot, one won by Al Hamra winner Fox and in which Hojgaard has played well, and he kept on driving it supremely well when 20th in the following week's Open de Espana.
Take out Valderrama, where driver has to remain in the bag, and he continued to stripe it off the tee, leading the field in Mauritius when ninth having ranked fifth at Leopard Creek before that. Often marrying this with hot putting, it's become very clear that Norgaard's wedge play is what needs attention if he's going to fulfil his undoubted potential.
The same is true of Hojgaard but I'm not sure it matters a great deal here. Key to victory will be bullying those seven scoring holes, where players of Norgaard's ilk should be chipping or putting for eagle and may not require anything like a full wedge. If he can drive the ball as we know he can, and has he did for a good chunk of the Ras Al Khaimah Classic a year ago, then he'll have ample opportunities.
Making the cut in both Al Hamra starts is good enough for me as he'd been off for three months, and since then we've seen him compete when driver is key such as at the absurdly long Green Eagle in Germany, where by contrast that wedge game of his did get tested and meant he finished 10th when he might've had a chance to win had his approach work been tidier.
I like that form line and the Dunhill Links, as I do the fact that he carded a second-round 65 to make the cut in Italy. Marco Simone is a course that also demands driver upon driver, and already we've seen some very strong correlation through the likes of Arnaus, Meronk, Smith, Robert MacIntyre, Scott Jamieson, Oliver Bekker, Victor Perez, Francesco Laporta and Masahiro Kawamura, who for the most part are excellent off the tee.
Moller missed the cut in Abu Dhabi, one of those courses where he can't fully take advantage of his length, before a predictably improved display in Dubai despite the fact he didn't drive it as well as we know he can. Now, dropping in grade and meeting a course which accentuates his key strength, he rates a fascinating each-way option.
TAPIO PULKKANEN is another who helps tie this course to Marco Simone, where he's finished 27th and 23rd in two Italian Open starts.
The big-hitting Finn won in Kazakhstan on the Challenge Tour, another venue where his power counts for plenty, and at 16th in driving distance last year we know what he's all about by now.
Pulkkanen's best form has accordingly come under low-scoring conditions where driver is the key club, notably when contending in the last two editions of the Czech Masters and again in Portugal last year, where he gave vain pursuit to Smith. Hojgaard had contended there a year earlier behind former Czech Masters winner Thomas Pieters and it's not difficult to draw a triangle between the three layouts.
Pulkkanen helps do that too having produced form figures of 7-20 across the Al Hamra fortnight last year, confirming how suitable this test is with rounds of 64 to lie third through 54 holes the first week, and then sign off with a round of 66 at the end of the second.
These two performances become even more significant when you consider that he'd shot rounds of 76, 75, 80 and 80 across the previous fortnight, and he returns after a slightly more promising start to this year having played nicely in Dubai for the most part. Yes, he only narrowly made the cut, but his second round was very solid bar one bad swing at the 13th.
It's true that his driver has been holding him back since Portugal, but the course is key and with more space and less punishment here, I wouldn't be surprise to see him bring that club back up to the sort of standards we know he's capable of.
Undoubtedly good enough to win in this kind of grade, backing Pulkkanen at courses where he can unleash that driver has been a pretty fruitful exercise of late even if he hasn't got over the line as yet. Seventh here, fifth at Steyn City, ninth at Catalunya, third in Prague, 10th in the Dunhill Links and third in Portugal are all good pointers and he should play really well.
MATTHEW JORDAN might sometimes be overlooked when we talk about the best young maidens on the circuit, but the 27-year-old has plenty of potential and has made an encouraging start to the year.
No doubt he enjoyed the demands of a breezy Yas Links where every aspect of his game ticked over nicely, before a strong driving display combined with improved approach play saw him step up markedly on what had been a low-key first try in the Dubai Desert Classic.
For a player like Jordan, whatever his future ambitions may be the reality is it would have been a huge ask to contend for those Rolex Series titles, and I see eight nice rounds played as a fantastic way to ensure readiness for the type of event and kind of company where he ought to feel like he can win.
Last year's best efforts came in Denmark and Qatar on exposed courses, he's often played well under similar conditions at the Dunhill Links, and three professional appearances in the Portugal Masters have all seen him feature at some stage, most notably when flying home for fifth in 2021.
All of this form corresponds nicely with Al Hamra, where he was 13th on his first look and made the cut on his second, and so does 15th place at Marco Simone. Throw in the fact that driver is his strongest club, and the self-taught Englishman has all the tools required, whether scoring is lights-out or some breeze helps to keep a lid on it.
Veer towards American option
Connor Syme is another improving youngster who hasn't quite grabbed the headlines yet but merits serious respect. He's managed seven top-fives since the summer of 2020 and I'd expect further chances to fall his way soon, but tougher conditions might just bring out the best in a rock-solid operator who is fabulously consistent but not as explosive as Jordan.
Tom McKibbin has hinted at the right skill set for this event and there has been promise despite a pair of missed cuts to begin the year. He was on the fringes in weaker company towards the end of 2022 and I could see him enjoying this, but my expectation is that it'll be in Europe later on that we see him underline why his future is so bright.
Julien Guerrier is less flashy but has form here and at a broadly similar course in Oman, he threatened a couple of times in 2022, and his driver is a strength. He's respected but it's his compatriot and regular selection Romain Langasque who I struggled to leave out, as his missed cuts at Al Hamra last year hide what were actually some very encouraging signs.
Langasque could well build on last week's encouraging return but there's no doubt he loves the Majlis Course at Emirates Golf Club and I would worry slightly about his suitability to a genuine shootout, reason enough to give ourselves a week off that particular experience.
Instead, JOHANNES VEERMAN might have timed his back-to-form eighth place perfectly and he has to go into the staking plan.
Another who brings Marco Simone form to the table, Veerman was 12th here last year, playing only one of the two events as he adjusted to life as a new dad. Now back for a second try, it was hugely encouraging to see his long-game and his putter both step up last week.
Veerman won the Czech Masters less than a year after he'd contended in Portugal so he has all the correlating form, he's well above-average in driving distance, and he was fourth in strokes-gained off-the-tee on his first look at the course. If he's in the same form as he was last week he must surely go well.
Hurly Long flew home for two high finishes here last year and must be respected after an improved second round in Dubai but I'll side with the more compelling credentials of a proven winner in Veerman.
Posted at 1715 GMT on 31/01/23
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